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Courses: Waialae Country Club

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7044 yards
• Bermuda greens; average speed around 11-11.5 on the stimp
• Field: 144 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Main course defense is wind (normal winner around -22 to -24; last year was -11)
• Average Cut Even or -1
• Hitting fairways is key (52% fairways hit on average compared to 62% TOUR average)
• Corollary Courses: East Lake/Memorial Park/Seaside (RSM Classic)/Sedgefield/TPC Southwind/Harbour Town GL
• Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson/Jim Furyk/Chez Reavie/Billy Horschel/Sergio Garcia/Kevin Kisner/Sungjae Im/Zach Johnson/Charles Howell III/Daniel Berger

 

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach (emphasis on 125-175)
• Fairways Gained
• BoB Gained
• SG: T2G
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• Scrambling

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($11,100) → Projected Ownership: 27%

Key Stats: 24^th SG: APP/22^nd Fways Gained/33^rd BoB/13^th T2G/27^th SG: P/19^th Scrambling

Form: 17^th/37^th/10^th/17^th

Course History: 3^rd/4^th/13^th/13^th/13^th/20^th/38^th/46^th

Notes: The best in the field by a pretty decent margin and the ownership should follow… always tough to pay up to 11k+ in cash but Webb has been consistent as ever here with 6 straight T20s, he thrives on Par 70 Bermuda green tracks, and struck it great last week with the irons, just lost a ton of strokes OTT

2) Daniel Berger ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 24%

Key Stats: 15^th SG: APP/55^th Fways Gained/14^th BoB/24^th T2G/18^th SG: P/20^th Scrambling

Form: 10^th/23^rd/17^th

Course History: 38^th/14^th/45^th/42^nd/13^th

Notes: Some of the most consistent ranks among my key stats this week, has made 8 straight cuts, has 8 T25s or better in his last 10 starts, and while he hasn’t lit up this course, I think he comes in with great form and although no T10s at Waialae, he hasn’t missed any cuts either; great cash play

Fades

1) Joaquin Niemann ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 28^th SG: APP/58^th Fways Gained/1^st BoB/3^rd T2G/37^th SG: P/63^rd Scrambling

Form: 2^nd/23^rd/44^th/17^th

Course History: 57^th

Notes: I really like Niemann and he could come in lower owned than I think, but he feels overpriced to me compared to the names around him as I would rather play Morikawa/Hideki/Berger and although he comes in hot after making a whopping 31 birdies last week, this course is quite different

2) Abraham Ancer ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 77^th SG: APP/8^th Fways Gained/23^rd BoB/59^th T2G/10^th SG: P/43^rd Scrambling

Form: 17^th/12^th/13^th/35^th

Course History: 38^th/29^th/MC

Notes: Not sure I buy the Ancer hype this week… last week was the first tournament he gained on APP since September and he lost over 2 OTT, lost over 5 T2G, and did almost all his work with the putter; at this price, I want more consistency and similar to Niemann, I much prefer the guys around Ancer

 Favorite Pivot

1) Adam Scott ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 8^th SG: APP/126^th Fways Gained/22^nd BoB/41^st T2G/49^th SG: P/112^th Scrambling

Form: 21^st/34^th/32^nd

Course History: MC/56^th/8^th/MC

Notes: For starters, I saw Adam Scott is back to the broomstick putter this week… so he’s back in play! In typical Scott fashion last week, he gained 6.8 strokes on APP (3^rd best in the field), 3.4 T2G and then lost over 3 putting and over 4 around the green; he will always be a bad putter, but on a course that rewards longer approaches, and has much smaller greens, I’ll take Scott at very low ownership and a fair price

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Russell Henley ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 1^st SG: APP/6^th Fways Gained/51^st BoB/1^st T2G/62^nd SG: P/2^nd Scrambling

Form: MC/30^th/29^th/4^th

Course History: MC/66^th/MC/13^th/MC/17^th/51^st/1^st

Notes: My favorite pick in this field as similar to English, Henley had a fantastic 2020 but couldn’t capture a win as his normally strong Bermuda putting went by the wayside; his form is iffy, but it’s also been a long break and I love how consistent his APP/T2G game has been for many months now

2) Russell Knox ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 14^th SG: APP/23^rd Fways Gained/71^st BoB/23^rd T2G/127^th SG: P/55^th Scrambling

Form: 23^rd/MC/15^th/16^th

Course History: 32^nd/43^rd/10^th/11^th/MC/13^th/MC/MC/MC

Notes: I like how Knox sets up for this course as he’s had success at Harbour Town GL (former winner); his form and putting are… bad; however, he has gained on APP in his last 4 tournaments, T2G in his last 5 and if he can just putt average, he can smash his value at only 7400

3) Scott Piercy ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 19^th SG: APP/56^th Fways Gained/36^th BoB/11^th T2G/90^th SG: P/10^th Scrambling

Form: 40^th/18^th/32^nd/14^th

Course History: 45^th/33^rd/25^th/57^th/13^th/2^nd/MC/15^th/23^rd

Notes: Piercy is pretty much a way worse Hideki/Scott/etc where he’s great T2G, as he’s gained over 4 strokes T2G in each of his last 3 tournaments, is a decent ARG player, but just a garbage putter; ultimate high risk/high reward as he will implode on his first 9 and miss the cut, or he can rack up birdies

Fades

1) Marc Leishman ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 86^th SG: APP/83^rd Fways Gained/136^th BoB/84^th T2G/128^th SG: P/52^nd Scrambling

Form: 24^th/MC/13^th/70^th

Course History: 28^th/3^rd/47^th/20^th/28^th/37^th/5^th/9^th/27^th

Notes: I simply don’t understand the love for Leishman this week… yes, his course history is solid, but his form for nearly a year now has been horrific, his stats are terrible, and although you could bet a little bit on his Hawaii history, I would much rather play almost any player similarly priced to him

2) Cameron Davis ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 81^st SG: APP/109^th Fways Gained/6^th BoB/73^rd T2G/34^th SG: P/91^st Scrambling

Form: MC/68^th

Course History: 9^th/MC

Notes: I love Cam Davis, but he’s fallen out of some form, and his main weapon with the driver is distance, not accuracy, as shown by his 109^th rank in the field in Fairways Gained; if we find out there’s major wind, he gets a small bump, but Bermuda greens are his worst surface, he’s lost strokes on APP in 2 of his last 3, lost T2G in 3 straight, and I think could be sneaky high owned in the lower 7k range

Favorite Pivot

1) Branden Grace ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Key Stats: 38^th SG: APP/40^th Fways Gained/58^th BoB/64^th T2G/123^rd SG: P/128^th Scrambling

Form: 8^th/49^th/30^th/MC/40^th

Course History: 13^th (2017)

Notes: Complete dart here but I don’t think anyone will own him and if nothing else at least he’s been solid on the comp courses (former winner at Harbour Town GL); his form is blah, but he did have an 8^th place in his most recent start on the Euro and he’s at least played this course before; if the conditions are poor, he could win at a lower score like -12 and if he makes the cut, the upside is huge at what should be 1-2% owned

OTHERS I LIKE: Kevin Kisner/Patton Kizzire/Chez Reavie/Matthew NeSmith/J.T. Poston/Brandt Snedeker

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Doug Ghim ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Quick Hits: May be one of the more popular sub 7k plays but has great stats, ranking 8^th in the field in T2G, 6^th in SG: APP, and 8^th in BoB

2) Brian Gay ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: A large cap between them but he did win in his 2^nd to last start and is one of the better putters on TOUR; 33^rd in BoB, Top 50 in Fairways Gained and Scrambling; 4 T25s here in 9 starts

3) Adam Schenk ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Was super chalk for a while in swing season in the 8k range while he was riding a long made cut streak but now cheap and has the best cut probability in this range + T20 upside; Top 50 in the field in T2G/APP/BoB/SG: Putting on Bermuda

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson                          

2) Daniel Berger

3) Kevin Kisner

4) Russell Henley

5) Charles Howell III

6) Brian Harman

7) Sebastian Munoz

8) Russell Knox

9) Scott Piercy

10) Charley Hoffman

11) Doug Ghim

12) Adam Schenk

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History Rank

1. Harris English
2. Webb Simpson
3. Kevin Kisner
4. Russell Henley
5. Cameron Smith
6. Daniel Berger
7. Ryan Palmer
8. Zach Johnson
9. Sungjae Im
10. Joaquin Niemann
11. Scott Piercy
12. Collin Morikawa
13. Sebastian Munoz
14. Abraham Ancer
15. Emiliano Grillo
16. Hideki Matsuyama
17. Kyle Stanley
18. Brian Harman
19. Patton Kizzire
20. Talor Gooch

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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