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Course: TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas, NV

Fast Facts

• Par 71; 7255 yards
• LARGE Bentgrass greens (7400 sq. ft. on average)
• 3 Par 5s (reachable by the whole field)
• Average Cut is around -2
• Field: 144 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses: Liberty National GC, TPC Boston, TPC Deere Run, TPC Twin Cities
• Top Course Fit Targets: Louis Oosthuizen, Adam Hadwin, Hideki Matsuyama, Pat Perez, Adam Scott, Abraham Ancer, Ryan Moore, Adam Schenk, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, Matthew Wolff, Russell Henley

Course and Weather Notes: We get a massive birdie fest this week but feature a field that is pretty damn strong! Probably the best field we’ll see until most of the big name resume at the start of 2022, we move to Vegas where most years a few guys will fire a 60/61 on one of the days with a winning score that should be around -22 to -25. Despite being listed at 7200 yards, this course will play much shorter being at 2000 feet of altitude which makes all 3 Par 5s gettable by the field, a lot of wedges, and stud iron play + a hot putter needed to compete. Target the riskier guys in tournaments who may make bogeys but can rack up 6+ birdies per round, strong Bentgrass putters, and a slight edge to those who play well on easier courses (i.e. swing season/Hawaii events, etc) like many of the 7k range this week. Good luck this week!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150)
• BoB Gained
• Good Drives Gained
• SG: Par 4s 400-450
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Abraham Ancer ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 37^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 15^th
• BoB Gained – 12^th
• Good Drives Gained – 1^st
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 5^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 9^th

Last 3 Starts – 9^th // 9^th // 64^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 9^th // 9^th // 64^th // 1^st // 14^th // 59^th       

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 4^th // MC // 4^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: Finally got that big first win at the WGC a few months ago and this course suits his game perfectly… has gained strokes putting in 5 straight measured events, made 6 straight cuts with a T4/1^st/T9/T9 in that span, his best surface is Bent, and while volatile, he has played here 5 times with 3 MC but 2 T4 finishes as well

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 6^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 36^th
• BoB Gained – 24^th
• Good Drives Gained – 90^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 75^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 131^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 6^th

Last 3 Starts – 6^th // 26^th // 46^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 6^th // 26^th // 46^th // 43^rd // MC // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 16^th // 10^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 6^th

Notes: Never owned in the higher salary range, which I think will be the case this week as well; finished T6 at the Fortinet Champ as he gained over 10 strokes T2G but naturally lost 1.4 strokes putting… only missed 1 cut in his last 12 starts with a major victory (Masters), T2 at the WGC and gaining strokes on APP in all but 2 of those 12 and T2G in all but 1 of those starts… CAN get very hot and storm the field (but the putter will most likely hold him back)

Fades

1) Sam Burns ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 5^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 34^th
• BoB Gained – 2^nd
• Good Drives Gained – 19^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 18^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 8^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 1^st

Last 3 Starts – 1^st // 18^th // 8^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 1^st // 18^th // 8^th // 21^st // 2^nd // 76^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 34^th // MC // MC // 20^th

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 59^th

Notes: I don’t dislike Burns because “he’s tired” or because he’s off a win, but he just feels expensive in what is a better field and while his form is great, we’re off Bermuda greens and while Burns can make a TON of birdies, he’s not a bad play, but is a little too volatile with other top tier guys who are most consistent

2) Kevin Na ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 18^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 11^th
• BoB Gained – 71^st
• Good Drives Gained – 66^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 37^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 24^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 3^rd // 17^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 3^rd // 17^th // 8^th // 2^nd // 23^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 43^rd // 1^st // MC // MC // 2^nd // WD // MC // 22^nd // 1^st

Wins: 2

Top 5s: 3

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 3^rd

Notes: I get the love for Na as he’s a 2 time winner here with the ability to get an insane putter (gained 14 strokes putting when he won 2 years ago), but he’s lost strokes OTT in 4 straight, he’s lost on APP in 2 of his last 4 and has been gaining a TON of strokes around the green, which I don’t think will be as helpful at this course… maybe he burns me as he gains 352305 strokes putting but I’ll fade at what I think could be sneaky high ownership

Favorite Pivot

1) Patrick Reed ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 90^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 84^th
• BoB Gained – 103^rd
• Good Drives Gained – 114^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 13^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 25^th

Last 3 Starts – 25^th // 31^st // 22^nd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 25^th // 31^st // 22^nd // 34^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – WD // 22^nd (note he hasn’t played here since 2013)    

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 7^th

Notes: Perfect time for Reed as he hasn’t played a ton so will look terrible in stat models, but like I always say with him, he doesn’t need to pop in a model to play well as he’s such an uncharacteristic type of player… I’ll play the narrative of him going out to give a big F**K you after being left off the Ryder Cup team and we know Reed can get a super hot putter (not to mention Bentgrass is his best surface)

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Mito Pereira ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 3^rd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 4^th
• BoB Gained – 15^th
• Good Drives Gained – 5^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 14^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 83^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 31^st

Last 3 Starts – 31^st // 3^rd // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 31^st // 3^rd // MC // 39^th // 4^th // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 30^th

Notes: Been a DFS darling in his young career thus far but I don’t understand the price drop here, which should make him popular; gained over 8 strokes T2G last week including 5.6 on APP but lost nearly 5 strokes putting which found him with a middling T31 finish… he’s gained T2G in 6 of his last 7 measured events, has a T3 and a T6 finish when he’s putted even average and it does feel like a win will come for him sooner rather than later

2) Pat Perez ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 31^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 31^st
• BoB Gained – 84^th
• Good Drives Gained – 34^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 96^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 21^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 16^th // 30^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 16^th // 30^th // 11^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – MC // 3^rd // 7^th // MC // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: Not a great showing all around a few weeks ago, but before that had gained on APP in 4 straight events and while he’s had mixed results, we should expect that at only 7200… his last 7 starts he has 3 MC and 4 finishes of T16 or better… I’ll buy the variance for a guy who is a strong desert golf player

3) Henrik Norlander ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 9^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 1^st
• BoB Gained – 23^rd
• Good Drives Gained – 14^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 11^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 66^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 4^th

Last 3 Starts – 4^th // MC // 45^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 4^th // MC // 45^th // 5^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 58^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 103^rd

Notes: Norlander led the field in SG: APP last week (8.4) en route to a T4 finish which is his second T5 or better in his last 3 starts… his short game can be bad, but after a rough stretch to end last season, I like targeting Norlander when his ball striking is on and while no big finishes, it’s a plus that he’s only 7k and has seen the course 3 times

Fades

1) Matthew Wolff ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 85^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 85^th
• BoB Gained – 97^th
• Good Drives Gained – 127^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 135^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 80^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 17^th

Last 3 Starts – 17^th // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 17^th // MC // MC // 17^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 2^nd // 18^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 11^th

Notes: I should probably just play Wolff in GPPs each week due to his consistent low ownership and his ability to rattle off a million birdies, but I think he’ll gain steam after last week and I don’t think his game is in form to gain strokes across the board multiple weeks in a row… still a poor putter and before last week had lost strokes on APP in 3 straight events and had missed 2 cuts in a row… No finish better than T10 since last year’s Shriners where he finished 2^nd

2) Luke List ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 1^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 58^th
• BoB Gained – 73^rd
• Good Drives Gained – 38^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 60^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 136^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 17^th

Last 3 Starts – 17^th // 51^st // 70^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 17^th // 51^st // 70^th // MC // 58^th // 5^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 13^th // 20^th // 15^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 98^th

Notes: List made a good run last Sunday to get into the top 20, but he still lost strokes putting for the 6^th event in a row and while his ball striking is elite, it’s hard to see him competing in an event where bad putters have gotten hot but List hasn’t gained over 3 strokes putting since the 2020 Farmers, where he finished T36 and hasn’t seen the “spike” putting week since May 2019…

Favorite Pivot

1) Seamus Power ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 51^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150) – 59^th
• BoB Gained – 62^nd
• Good Drives Gained – 72^nd
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 36^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 15^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 31^st // 60^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 31^st // 60^th // 1^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 41^st // 57^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 52^nd  

Notes: Liked him last week but a horrendous iron performance saw him miss the cut; however, before that he hadn’t missed a cut since February, he’s been putting well and despite 2 bad showings both last week and in August, I think there was some rust here and he still had a win very recently… don’t think anyone will be on him and he’s shown the propensity to score well in easier-scoring events

OTHERS I LIKE: Maverick McNealy // Taylor Moore // Joel Dahmen // Ian Poulter

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Roger Sloan ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Played well for about 80% of the tourney last week, finishing T14 and gaining nearly 5 strokes on APP and 4 strokes T2G… he’s hit or miss as his last 4 starts are 2^nd/MC/MC/14^th; however, his best putting surface is Bent, he ranks 6^th in the field on Par 4s 400-450 and is Top 50 or better in all stat categories I’m looking at with a sub 7k price tag

2) Adam Hadwin ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: The form isn’t elite and the stats aren’t terrific but I’ll take a flier on Hadwin (probably dumb) and bet on his course history + his ability to get a super hot putter, which is essentially for success here… Hadwin has played here 5 times with a T4/T10/T27 in that span and while last year was a struggle, he does have a T6/T10/T45 in 3 of his last 5 starts while keeping his strong putting mostly consistent

3) Scott Piercy ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Piercy is frustrating as his stats can look good and then he’ll go out on the front nine on Thursday and shoot 45… nevertheless, after an impressive 6.4 strokes putting LOST in 2 rounds last week, he gained strokes T2G for the 4^th straight event, he’s a noted resident of Vegas and good desert player having played here 10 years in a row with 8 of 10 made cuts that includes a T19 last year, 2 other T25s, and 4 T10s or better in that span

4) Tom Hoge ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Hoge’s short game is terrible, which is a worry, but he’s only 6400, has gained strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4, gained T2G in 4 of his last 5, and he has made cut equity with some upside if he putts even average given that at this price point a made cut is already serious value, not to mention he should be virtually unowned

 

Cash Game Options

1) Abraham Ancer

2) Webb Simpson

3) Hideki Matsuyama

4) Cameron Tringale

5) Mito Pereira

6) Maverick McNealy

7) Pat Perez

8) Henrik Norlander

9) Scott Piercy

10) Ian Poulter

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 7% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 13% Course History

1. Abraham Ancer
2. Kevin Na
3. Sam Burns
4. Webb Simpson
5. Paul Casey
6. Sungjae Im
7. Viktor Hovland
8. Louis Oosthuizen
9. Mito Pereira
10. Brooks Koepka
11. Erik Van Rooyen
12. Corey Conners
13. Will Zalatoris
14. Hideki Matsuyama
15. Si Woo Kim
16. Scottie Scheffler
17. Harris English
18. Cameron Tringale
19. Henrik Norlander
20. Seamus Power

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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