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Course: Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, MI

Fast Facts

• Par 72; 7370 yards originally designed by Donald Ross
• Easy scoring with 4 Par 5s and winning score the last 2 years (-23) and (-25)
• Poa/Bent mix greens
• Smaller than average size greens (5200 sq. ft. on average)
• A lot of bunkers (87) but non-penal rough and only 1 water hazard
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• AVG Cut last 2 years: -4
• Corollary Courses: TPC San Antonio // Stadium Course // Plainfield CC // Sedgefield CC // East Lake
• Top Course Fit Targets: Si Woo Kim // Webb Simpson // Chris Kirk // Brandt Snedeker // Jason Day // Jason Kokrak // Andrew Landry // Hideki Matsuyama // Patrick Reed // Mark Hubbard // Cameron Davis

Course and Weather Notes: We’re back to Detroit Golf Club for its 3^rd year and aside from some possible showers THU afternoon/evening, I would expect another birdie-fest as this course has shown to be one of the easier scoring on TOUR with its 2 winners, Nate Lashley and Bryson DeChambeau, making 28 and 27 birdies, respectively, en route to their respective victories with the cut both years at -4. As seen by the two winners, who let’s just say are slightly different players, any type of player can win here but I’ll be putting heavy, heavy emphasis on BoB% along with eagles gained (per FNGC) and guys who are elite on APP from 125-175 and can get hot with the putter. One thing I’m doing this week is disregarding any around the green play because while that strength doesn’t hurt, obviously, if guys are scrambling and trying to save par from 10 feet instead of making birdies, they don’t have much value anyway. Good luck this week as despite being a birdie-fest, the course setup is great and while a “weak” field, we still get some top-tier talent!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 2^nd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 1^st
• BoB Gained – 11^th
• SG: OTT – 15^th
• Opportunities Gained – 1^st
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 132^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 26^th

Last 3 Starts – 26^th // 62^nd // 23^rd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 26^th // 62^nd // 23^rd // 39^th // 1^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 21^st // 13^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Notes: I feel like I come off as a Hideki defender with how I always want to be overweight in pretty much every event; nevertheless, Hideki rebounded from an impressive -9.4 (yes, that’s negative 9.4) strokes gained putting at Memorial to finish T26 at US Open where his T2G/APP game was elite but he had a few big numbers that kept him from a higher finish… strokes gained on APP in 9 straight events, 6 straight made cuts, and while yes, the putter almost always holds him back, he’s average 15 birdies per tournament over his last 5, good for 2^nd in the field, and is 2^nd in the field in Avg. DK Points over his last 5 which is key for success at a birdie-fest event like the Rocket Mortgage

2) Jason Kokrak ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 31^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 32^nd
• BoB Gained – 1^st
• SG: OTT – 13^th
• Opportunities Gained – 11^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 3^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 1^st // 49^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 1^st // 49^th // 13^th // 21^st // 49^th   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 29^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I didn’t see many shots of Kokrak’s second round at the US Open but there couldn’t have been many good ones… he will be chalky and for good reason as he comes in near the top of most every stat model, the weakest part of his game by far, his ARG, is mitigated here, and he’s had a terrific year T2G/with his irons and is putting the best I’ve ever seen him… 5 T15 finishes or better in his last 8 starts that includes a win a few weeks ago in Texas

Fades

1) Patrick Reed ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 1^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 31^st
• BoB Gained – 24^th
• SG: OTT – 48^th
• Opportunities Gained – 18^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 32^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 25^th

Last 3 Starts – 25^th // 19^th // 5^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 25^th // 19^th // 5^th // MC // 17^th // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // 5^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Nothing about his stats/recent form has me fading Reed as I almost always play him but this week I would rather find the $500 more for Bryson or drop down to guys I think have at least similar/even more upside such as Hideki/Webb/Niemann/Kokrak… Reed can succeed anywhere and had success here 2 years ago with a T5 but I will always favor him on the harder tracks in harder fields compared to an event that T5 finishers/winners will put up 25+ birdies

2) Kevin Kisner ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 100^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 135^th
• BoB Gained – 97^th
• SG: OTT – 89^th
• Opportunities Gained – 96^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 5^th

Last 3 Starts – 5^th // 55^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 5^th // 55^th // MC // 40^th // MC // MC  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 3^rd // 46^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Maybe I have him projected at too high of ownership but when I look at Kisner’s stats this year, see he gained 7 strokes putting last week (gained <1 OTT and <1 on APP), see that he’s missed 6 of 11 cuts in 2021, and see that it’s his first T5 since last November… well that’s a definite fade for me, especially at this price point…

Favorite Pivot

1) Webb Simpson ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 13^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 51^st
• BoB Gained – 31^st
• SG: OTT – 65^th
• Opportunities Gained – 119^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 17^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 30^th // 9^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 30^th // 9^th // 12^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 8^th  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Despite knowing the course fit was far from ideal for Webb at the US Open I played him anyway… LOLLLLLLL; Webb rates out very well when looking at comp courses with a ton of success on Donald Ross designs (Sedgefield/Plainfield/East Lake), aside from 2 events in the last month is one of the better putters on TOUR and should go overlooked with his most recent start a MC and a high price point

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Si Woo Kim ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 7^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 25^th
• BoB Gained – 15^th
• SG: OTT – 7^th
• Opportunities Gained – 28^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 108^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 40^th // 9^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 40^th // 9^th // WD // MC // 55^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 57^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Si WOOOOOOOOOOOOO’s game is so hard to analyze since he’s super volatile but when everything is clicking he can dust any field… rates out great on comp courses with a 1^st, T3, and T5 at Wyndham (Sedgefield), a 1^st place at the AmEx earlier this year (Stadium Course) and he ranks Top 15 in the field in BoB, T2G, and SG: OTT

2) Maverick McNealy ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 48^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 74^th
• BoB Gained – 10^th
• SG: OTT – 10^th
• Opportunities Gained – 74^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 38^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 30^th

Last 3 Starts – 30^th // 20^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 30^th // 20^th // MC // MC // MC // 4^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 8^th  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: I’m locked in on Mav this week… so you should probably fade given my picks this year; McNealy rates out well on comp courses, can make a ton of birdies as he’s Top 15 in the field in DK Points per event in his last 5, Top 10 in birdies per event over his last 5, and ranks 10^th in both SG: OTT and BoB… it’s still early in his career, i.e. a small sample, but he’s shown propensity to succeed in weaker/birdie-heavy events thus far with T10 or better finishes at Pebble Beach twice, RBC Heritage, and an 8^th place finish here last year

3) Patton Kizzire ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 67^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 52^nd
• BoB Gained – 6^th
• SG: OTT – 96^th
• Opportunities Gained – 5^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 26^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // MC // 3^rd // 3^rd // 58^th   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Kizzire is a bizarre play, statistically at least, as he was on fire with the APP game and finished T3 back to back weeks in May and then proceeded to lose strokes T2G and on APP in 3 straight and miss all 3 cuts… I will embrace his volatility, which should keep his OWN% very low and hope that at a course where he can get hot and doesn’t penalize his inaccuracy off the tee as much is what he needs to get back on track… similar to McNealy, Kizzire rates out much better in high-birdie events compared to the tougher/grinding courses as 8 of his 10 best finishes over the last few years have come at some of the easier courses on TOUR

Fades

1) Doc Redman ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 19^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 4^th
• BoB Gained – 36^th
• SG: OTT – 122^nd
• Opportunities Gained – 47^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 30^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 61^st

Last 3 Starts – 61^st // 2^nd // 42^nd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 61^st // 2^nd // 42^nd // 59^th // 9^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 21^st // 2^nd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: I get why Redman is gaining popularity as he’s sub 8K, has a T2 and T21 here, and is a great iron player, gaining in his last 5 events on SG: APP; however, Redman is a terrible putter and has gained strokes putting in his last 6 while losing strokes OTT in 5 of those 6, losing strokes T2G in 4 of those 6 and if nothing else, cheap chalk is always worth a fade for me

2) Sepp Straka ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 109^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 122^nd
• BoB Gained – 102^nd
• SG: OTT – 63^rd
• Opportunities Gained – 143^rd
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 28^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 10^th

Last 3 Starts – 10^th // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 10^th // MC // MC // MC // 26^th // 54^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 8^th // 11^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Notes: Since I’m questioning this I’m sure he’ll win the event, but I don’t understand the buzz for Straka this week… yes he has 2 solid finishes here in 2019/2020 but last week was not only his first Top 10 since Corales (alternate/weak field) in March, but it was the first event he had gained strokes on APP since the Honda classic and the first time he’d gained at least a stroke T2G since the Honda… if he gets popular and last week wasn’t just some variance then I guess I’ll lose for the n^th week in a row?

Favorite Pivot

1) Sebastian Munoz ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 86^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 91^st
• BoB Gained – 43^rd
• SG: OTT – 21^st
• Opportunities Gained – 61^st
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 16^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // MC // 3^rd // MC // 55^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: No, the irony is not lost on me that I am criticizing guys like Redman/Straka yet I am writing up Kizzire (3 straight MC) and Munoz (3 straight MC) as plays… but Munoz has gained strokes T2G and on APP in his last 2, has gained OTT in 4 of his last 5, yet has been bleeding strokes with the putter; while I think he’s risky, I like Munoz’s upside at only 7300 and he should be low owned with the recent form

OTHERS I LIKE: Max Homa // Emiliano Grillo // Cameron Tringale // Lucas Glover // Kyle Stanley // Ryan Armour // Cameron Davis // Scott Stallings

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Martin Laird ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Not sure the last time I played Martin Laird, but despite being an older guy, he can rack up the birdies, get hot with the irons, and he does hold a win at the beginning of the season (Shriners); Laird has gained strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4, including 11.7 (!!!) at the PGA Champ… I don’t think anyone will own him and he’s a very weak putter, but it’s worth noting that his best putting surface is Poa and that some of his best finishes the last few seasons are on “birdie-fest” type courses

2) Scott Piercy ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Rostering Scott Piercy is not for the faint of heart as he can easily be in DFL after Day 1 more often than we’d like; however, Piercy has gained strokes on APP/OTT/T2G in 4 straight events and similar to Laird tends to show up at easier courses… Piercy is a horrendous putter but similar to Hideki/Glover/Keegan, etc, the putter CAN get hot, it’s just few and far between

3) Vaughn Taylor ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: 3 MC in his last 6 for Vaughn, but in his non-MC he has a T6 and a T18 finish and in those 6 starts has gained strokes on APP in 4 and can flash with a hot putter at moment’s notice; definitely a pure punt play and I wouldn’t use him in cash/single entry but at a course that doesn’t disadvantage shorter hitters I think Vaughn is worth a shot or two

Cash Game Options

1) Bryson DeChambeau

2) Joaquin Niemann

3) Jason Kokrak

4) Max Homa

5)  Si Woo Kim

6) Maverick McNealy

7) Kyle Stanley

8) Cameron Davis

9) Hank Lebioda

10) Martin Laird

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 5% Course History

1. Patrick Reed
2. Bryson DeChambeau
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Jason Kokrak
5. Emiliano Grillo
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Gary Woodland
8. Si Woo Kim
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Webb Simpson
11. Will Zalatoris
12. Hank Lebioda
13. Garrick Higgo
14. Joaquin Niemann
15. Phil Mickelson
16. Kyle Stanley
17. Bubba Watson
18. Max Homa
19. Patton Kizzire
20. Doc Redman

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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