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Course: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Fast Facts

• Par 72; 7189 yards designed by Pete Dye with redesign in 2016 by Steve Wenzloff
• FAST Bermuda greens (12-13 on the stimp)
• Small greens (approx. 5000-5500 sq. ft)
• Field: 154 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average Cut: +1
• 88 bunkers, water in play on 17/18 holes
• Wind can make the course extremely difficult
• Corollary Courses: Harbour Town GL, Kiawah Island, TPC River Highlands, TPC Stadium Course (PGA West), Whistling Straits, Bay Hill (last week), GC of Houston
• Top Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Ian Poulter, Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, Patrick Reed

Course and Weather Notes: We have reached the ALL CAPS OPEN AKA THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP and I’m sure we’ll be reminded no less than 47 times this week how this was “the last event before the world stopped” or something along those lines. More importantly, 48 of the Top 50 in the world are teeing it up this week (Get well soon, Tiger; you too Wolff) and we have a course that has been played for nearly 40 years that on the surface looks like a very gettable and scorable but has trouble looming nearly everywhere with water on 17 of the 18 holes and 88 bunkers sprinkled throughout. What I think is most fascinating about Sawgrass is it presents a tough test for all, as year after year we see some of the big betting favorites miss the cut, but also that no player is incapable of winning no matter if they’re a short or long hitter or an aggressive vs. non-aggressive player. The key stats needed to compete are strong approach play, as is key every week, along with strong Bermuda putters and players that have excelled on other Pete Dye courses such as Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage), the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island (2012 PGA Championship), TPC River Highlands (The Travelers), and the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West (The Amex course since 2016). While I think course history is somewhat important, I would not say it’s imperative like it can be other weeks because yes, I don’t believe there have been any first time winners here (or at least recently), we’ve seen multiple players win after a MC the previous year (Day/Rory), Rickie won in 2015 after his previous 4 starts at Sawgrass a MC/2^nd/MC/MC, so while course history never hurts, I wouldn’t rule out players who haven’t played well here specifically.

While scoring on Par 5s will be imperative, as on average around 45% of DK scoring comes from the 4 Par 5s, I have a decent amount of weight on around the green play as that’s a typical Dye design and as mentioned above, with so many hazards and possibly wind lurking, players need to save par just as often as they need to go uber low with tons of birdies. Don’t be afraid to make lineups that make you feel somewhat “uncomfortable” this week as in the last 2 installments of the PLAYERS we’ve seen 6-8 of the top scorers for the week come from the sub 7k DraftKings range. Enjoy what is probably the most loaded field of the year and onto the picks!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach Blend (emphasis on 100-150 yards and 200+)
• Birdie or Better %
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• SG: T2G
• SG: ARG
• SG: Par 4s (450-500 emphasis)
• SG: Par 5s

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Jon Rahm ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 6^th SG: APP/18^th BoB/99^th SG: P/2^nd SG: T2G/37^th SG: ARG/34^th SG: P4s/8^th SG: P5s

Form: 32^nd/5^th/13^th/7^th/7^th

Course History: 12^th/63^rd/MC

Notes: I don’t really need to tell you why to play Rahm, but I’ll keep repeating that he’s playing well, has strong finishes, and still doesn’t seem like he’s playing his “best” right now… putter can let him down occasionally, as he’s lost strokes putting in 3 straight, but he’s made every cut except the very first tournament last year after the restart with 2 wins and 7 Top 10s in that time frame

2) Webb Simpson ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 43^rd SG: APP/33^rd BoB/18^th SG: P/22^nd SG: T2G/14^th SG: ARG/18^th SG: P4s/16^th SG: P5s

Form: 6^th/42^nd/4^th/17^th

Course History: 16^th/1^st/16^th/66^th/MC/15^th/MC/69^th/MC

Notes: Probably my favorite play of the week and he will most likely end up one of the chalkier options, but I think this price is great, he’s elite on Bermuda greens, he’s made 14 straight cuts, and has a win and 2 T16s in his last 3 starts at Sawgrass

3) Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 25^th SG: APP/7^th BoB/19^th SG: P/3^rd SG: T2G/8^th SG: ARG/6^th SG: P4s/18^th SG: P5s

Form: 15^th/3^rd/2^nd/13^th

Course History: MC/23^rd/22^nd

Notes: Adding a 3^rd core play above 9k this week because Cantlay is a close second to Webb for my favorite play of the week; he’s made 2/3 cuts here, with a T23 and T22, and ranks no worse than 25^th in any of the 7 stat categories I’m looking at this week; he’s improved his ARG game massively over the last 12-18 months, can make a ton of birdies, and has 3 straight great performances, gaining T2G/APP/OTT/ARG in all 3 that resulted in a T2/T3/T15

Fades

1) Xander Schauffele ($10,300) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 36^th SG: APP/11^th BoB/15^th SG: P/25^th SG: T2G/68^th SG: ARG/30^th SG: P4s/14^th SG: P5s

Form: 39^th/15^th/2^nd/2^nd/5^th

Course History: MC/2^nd

Notes: He’s obviously elite, but at this price I would much rather take the win equity/upside of Rory or Rahm for a few hundred more, or JT who’s for some reason less expensive… Xander is a fantastic ball striker, can make a ton of birdies, etc etc, but he was riding an insanely hot putter for a while and if that cools off combined with a below average around the green game, I would rather look elsewhere

2) Bryson DeChambeau ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 54^th SG: APP/5^th BoB/23^rd SG: P/8^th SG: T2G/71^st SG: ARG/53^rd SG: P4s/1^st SG: P5s

Form: 1^st/22^nd/MC/18^th/7^th

Course History: 20^th/37^th

Notes: As shown last week, Bryson can truly win everywhere with that OTT game, but Sawgrass is definitely not all about distance as much as it’s about strong wedge/short iron play and scrambling to save par which are 2 facets that I believe Bryson has underwhelmed since he gained 7000 pounds of muscle; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play well again, at all, but similar to Xander, I would rather take an ownership discount for the similar upside, better course fits around him

 Favorite Pivot

1) Patrick Reed ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 80^th SG: APP/4^th BoB/1^st SG: P/46^th SG: T2G/41^st SG: ARG/2^nd SG: P4s/19^th SG: P5s

Form: MC/9^th/66^th/1^st/MC/21^st

Course History: 47^th/41^st/22^nd/MC/24^th/MC

Notes: Reed absolutely killed me last week, as I’m sure he did many others as well, but it makes it even more perfect to go back to him at now sub 10% ownership; ranks #1 in the field in SG: P on Bermuda, is one of the best scramblers on TOUR, and ranks Top 5 in the field in both BoB and SG: Par 4s… plus, he always thrives in the strongest of fields

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Scottie Scheffler ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 59^th SG: APP/10^th BoB/30^th SG: P/14^th SG: T2G/10^th SG: ARG/1^st SG: P4s/50^th SG: P5s

Form: 5^th/20^th/7^th/MC/MC/13^th

Course History: None

Notes: Man if Scheffler could putt he would be a completely different player; massive birdie maker, has gained on SG: APP in his last 4 events, gained T2G in his last 3 events, and while he hasn’t played here, I still think he can contend or at least pay off his price tag with his birdie upside; worth noting that he loses strokes putting to the field on average, but Bermuda is his “best” surface (relative to others)

2) Abraham Ancer ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 44^th SG: APP/34^th BoB/82^nd SG: P/40^th SG: T2G/81^st SG: ARG/51^st SG: P4s/30^th SG: P5s

Form: 18^th/MC/53^rd/5^th/MC/17^th

Course History: 12^th

Notes: Could end up being a chalkier value play since he’s clearly underpriced, but I love Ancer in all formats this week as he’s returned to his more normal self being a ball striking machine, gaining on APP in 5 straight events, but being let down by the putter; in his only appearance at Sawgrass, in 2019, he finished T12 and we’ve seen him make birdies in bunches and score well on Par 5s in his short career

3) Russell Henley ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 10^th SG: APP/92^nd BoB/61^st SG: P/24^th SG: T2G/52^nd SG: ARG/16^th SG: P4s/139^th SG: P5s

Form: 38^th/30^th/MC/11^th

Course History: MC/MC/35^th/MC/24^th/17^th/MC

Notes: I’m clearly just a sucker for Henley as he isn’t AS hot as he was when I wrote him up over the last few months, but his stats are still strong, as he’s 24^th T2G, 10^th in SG: APP, 16^th in Par 4 scoring; Henley has gained on Approach in his last 16 (SIXTEEN) straight events, has gained T2G in 15 of those 16 and if he can avoid the big numbers and score better on the reachable Par 5s, I think he can smash value and is my favorite longshot bet of the week

Fades

1) Adam Scott ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 88^th SG: APP/38^th BoB/36^th SG: P/112^th SG: T2G/100^th SG: ARG/92^nd SG: P4s/49^th SG: P5s

Form: 54^th/38^th/10^th/41^st/21^st

Course History: 12^th/11^th/6^th/12^th/38^th/38^th/19^th/15^th/MC/26^th

Notes: Normally one of the best in the ball striking/T2G category, Scott has looked off recently, losing strokes on APP in his last 2 and 3 of his last 4 events while riding a semi hot putter, normally a huge damper on his game, over those same events; he has been making cuts, but with his strong course history, being a former winner, and cheaper price point I think this is an easy pivot for me

2) Tommy Fleetwood ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 85^th SG: APP/95^th BoB/91^st SG: P/59^th SG: T2G/15^th SG: ARG/67^th SG: P4s/86^th SG: P5s

Form: 10^th/44^th/26^th/17^th/7^th

Course History: 5^th/7^th/41^st

Notes: Fleetwood was solid for the first 3 rounds last week (I’ll give him and everyone a pass for R4 with those conditions), is an elite Florida golfer normally with a T7 and T5 in his last 2 starts here; however, his OTT game has been hurting him, the putter is not great, and he has a higher propensity than those around him in making those big numbers; with all the water/trouble surrounding Sawgrass, I would rather fade this “chalk” value and drop to others in the mid/low 7k range

Favorite Pivot

1) Cameron Smith ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 38^th SG: APP/13^th BoB/42^nd SG: P/30^th SG: T2G/17^th SG: ARG/70^th SG: P4s/6^th SG: P5s

Form: 11^th/4^th/MC/62^nd/24^th

Course History: 56^th/MC/MC

Notes: Cam Smith is interesting because he always seems somewhat overpriced, at least on DraftKings, and is therefore hardly ever owned despite his strong DK scoring/Top 10 upside; Smith has gained over 4 strokes on APP in his last 2 events, resulting in a T4 and T11; he’ll never “pop” in a stat model, but similar to Patrick Reed, his elite around the green and putting ability always keeps him relevant; he’s made ever cut but one since last June, which includes 4 Top 20s and 3 Top 5s in that span

OTHERS I LIKE: Jason Day/Cameron Smith/Sergio Garcia/Corey Conners/Sam Burns/Kevin Na/Lanto Griffin/Si Woo Kim/Chris Kirk

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Charley Hoffman ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: Hoffman had a rough go of it towards the end of 2020 but has now made his last 7 of 8 cuts with 3 finishes of T14 or better including a T10 last week at Bay Hill and a T7 at the AT&T Pro Am; he’s gained on APP in 6 of his last 7 measured tournaments and ranks 21^st in the field T2G, 32^nd SG: APP, 25^th BoB, and To p50 in SG: P on Bermuda/Par 4 Scoring/Par 5 Scoring

2) Kevin Streelman ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Lost strokes on APP for the first time in 6 tournaments at the Genesis but now has taken 2 weeks off and has gained both T2G and OTT in 4 straight events, has made 6 of his last 7 cuts, and despite poor course history, I think he’s playing some of the best golf of his career over the last 12-18 months and his stats show it, as he’s 32^nd in the field T2G, 20^th SG: APP, and Top 50 in SG: ARG and SG: Par 4s at sub 7k and probably sub 5% owned

3) Emiliano Grillo ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: Been a good while since I played Grillo as he always burns me, but at only 6700 he ranks 52^nd T2G, 23^rd BoB, and 5^th in Par 4 scoring in the field; he’s made 3 straight cuts at Sawgrass, with no finish worse than 37^th and a T11 in 2017, which would more than hit value at this price; he will obviously putt poorly, but at this price and knowing his history, we are fine with it at under 7k

4) Brendan Steele ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: I think I’ve played Steele 4-5 weeks in a row and while he hasn’t lit the world on fire, he’s made 6 straight cuts with a 4^th/21^st/18^th (last week) in that span; similar to Grillo, he’s a terrible putter, but superb off the tee, gaining in his last 7 events OTT, he’s gained over 5 strokes T2G in 4 of his last 6 starts, and while he has missed several cuts at Sawgrass, he did finish T6 3 years ago and has a lot of experience with the conditions

5) Rory Sabbatini ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: <1%

Quick Hits: This guy is such an anomaly and tough to figure out… he’ll miss the cut by 10 shots and then all of a sudden be in the Top 10; nevertheless, he ranks 20^th in the field in BoB, 22^nd in SG: P on Bermuda, 10^th in SG: Par 4s, and has made 7 of 8 cuts at Sawgrass including the last 5; not sure I would be comfortable using him in a single entry or 3 max, especially with 3 straight MC, but before that he had back to back T12/T10 so I think he’s worth a shot as a last man in for large GPPs

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm      

2) Webb Simpson

3) Collin Morikawa

4) Patrick Cantlay

5) Tony Finau

6) Scottie Scheffler

7) Abraham Ancer

8) Corey Conners

9) Russell Henley

10) Sam Burns

11) Lanto Griffin

12) Si Woo Kim

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Tony Finau
3. Webb Simpson
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Justin Thomas
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Rory McIlroy
8. Bryson DeChambeau
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Jon Rahm
11. Patrick Cantlay
12. Patrick Reed
13. Collin Morikawa
14. Paul Casey
15. Max Homa
16. Scottie Scheffler
17. Daniel Berger
18. Joaquin Niemann
19. Cameron Smith
20. Matthew Fitzpatrick

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!