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Course: Liberty National GC, Jersey City, NJ

Fast Facts

• Par 71; 7410 yards
• Smaller than average Bentgrass greens (4600-4700 sq. ft. on average)
• 98 scattered bunkers with 12 water hazards
• Wind can be the ultimate defense
• Expected Cut: Around Even par
• Field: 124 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses: Bay Hill, Bellerive, Innisbrook, Olympia Fields, Royal Portrush, Royal St. Georges, Shadow Creek, TPC Boston, TPC Scottsdale
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jon Rahm, Jason Kokrak, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Tyrrell Hatton, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka

  ***NOTE: Course history is from the last 2 events at Liberty National in specific (2019/2013); therefore, players have a maximum of 2 starts in the “course history” section***

Course and Weather Notes: I want to start off by saying I appreciate the kind words on Twitter and in our Karma discord after the biggest win of my DFS career last week where I came 3^rd in the $200 SE and Top 10 in the $55 MME, among others, for a $30,000+ win. After a rough year in the betting markets (6^th outrights have finished second to coincide with having 2 guys in the playoff last week, and Henley, who all obviously lost), I can’t describe the feeling of hard work paying off and even getting a shoutout from the GOAT of DFS Golf (and DFS in general), Pat Mayo!

Liberty National plays host for the 3^rd time since 2013 and while it can be scorable, there are big numbers and tough holes scattered throughout as I expect the conditions to be tougher than 2019 when Reed won at -16 as the course can thicken the rough, has 98 bunkers, and water hazards present on 12 of the 18 holes. While the talent of these guys never completely limits birdies and BoB Gained is definitely a key stat, I’m bumping up SG: SG (short game), SG: ARG, and Sand Saves in my stat models as saving par as many will miss the smaller than average greens will be imperative. With such a loaded field, there will be a ton of good-looking lineups and “values” but don’t be afraid to make a balanced lineup that leaves salary on the table with so many elite talents in the 7-8.5k range and even the 6k range. Good luck this week!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG
• SG: Bogey Avoidance

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 2^nd
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 4^th
• BoB Gained – 7^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 96^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 88^th
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 54^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 12^th

Last 3 Starts – 12^th // 4^th // 46^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 12^th // 4^th // 46^th // MC // 59^th // 7^th     

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 6^th // 19^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 6^th

Notes: Has gained on APP in 8 straight measured events (hasn’t lost strokes on APP since the Genesis in February), has gained T2G in 5 straight measured events, and despite a win a few months ago, remains volatile for such an elite talent… I think we’re getting a great price for someone who has consistently shown up in the PGA TOUR Playoffs (won the FedEx cup twice) and while the putter has been bad the last few months, he can spike with it and when he does, he has immediate winning upside (gained twice in his last 7 events that resulted in a T18 at Memorial and a win at Wells Fargo)

2) Daniel Berger ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 9^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 1^st
• BoB Gained – 64^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 28^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 53^rd
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 3^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 5^th

Last 3 Starts – 5^th // 8^th // 34^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 5^th // 8^th // 34^th // 7^th // 20^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 16^th

Notes: Could be the highest or one of the highest owned but it feels justified to me with how he’s played this year; 2 MC in 2021, one of which was the Masters by a stroke, with 8 (EIGHT!) Top 10s, a win, and he’s gained strokes on APP in every measured event since his win at the AT&T (10 straight); his ARG game has improved since last year/beginning of 2021 and if the putter stays solid, he is very live to win

Fades

1) Xander Schauffele ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 21^st
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 15^th
• BoB Gained – 21^st
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 78^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 93^rd
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 27^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 46^th

Last 3 Starts – 46^th // 1^st // 26^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 46^th // 1^st // 26^th // 10^th // 7^th // 11^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 5^th

Notes: This isn’t my normal fade of Xander because I dislike him, but rather because he doesn’t have the best event history with 2 MC at the NORTHERN TRUST, including 2019 at Liberty National, and more recently, his ARG has been struggling, losing strokes there in 3 of his last 4 measured events along with 2 straight events of losing strokes with the putter; he feels overpriced when I compare him to Spieth for only $200 more or the elite ball striker in Morikawa is $200 CHEAPER

2) Abraham Ancer ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 6^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 9^th
• BoB Gained – 22^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 14^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 21^st
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 9^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 1^st  

Last 3 Starts – 1^st // 14^th // 59^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 1^st // 14^th // 59^th // 4^th // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 2^nd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 61^st

Notes: Nothing about his stats warrant a fade whatsoever, as he’s having a career year and just got his first win on TOUR at the WGC 2 weeks ago; however, while an elite ball striker, I think this will lead to inflated ownership and historically, he’s not the best ARG player and could still be feeling the hangover of his first official win… I’ll pass for others around him (Cantlay/Berger/Webb/English)

Favorite Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 35^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 36^th
• BoB Gained – 6^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 25^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 40^th
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 77^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 10^th

Last 3 Starts – 10^th // MC // 8^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 10^th // MC // 8^th // 25^th // 19^th // 10^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 24^th // MC    

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 4^th

Notes: DJ continues to have a weird year where it feels like he’s been really off, at least recently, but has actually made 5 of his last 6 cuts with 3 T10s and 2 T25s in that span… we know DJ doesn’t need to be in elite form or pop in stat models as he has the ability to put it all together in a flash and smoke the field; he’s gained on APP in his last 2 events, he is Top 5 in course fit, and should be the lowest owned by far in the 10k+ range as most gravitate to Rahm and/or Spieth

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Tyrrell Hatton ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 10^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 19^th
• BoB Gained – 42^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 105^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 47^th
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 36^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 17^th

Last 3 Starts – 17^th // MC // 18^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 17^th // MC // 18^th // MC // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 59^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: Hatton has a had quite the up and down year with a couple MC at strong field events (PLAYERS/US Open/Open Championship), but has show flashes of strong performances as he’s gained on APP in 4 of his last 5 measured events, has gained strokes ARG in 5 straight events, and I love his course fit here with strong history at Bay Hill (former winner), a T3 at Shadow Creek last year; great value at sub 8k as the 10^th ranked T2G player in the field

2) Ian Poulter ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 77^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 92^nd
• BoB Gained – 17^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 2^nd
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 4^th
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 48^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 10^th

Last 3 Starts – 10^th // 26^th // 4^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 10^th // 26^th // 4^th // 36^th // 40^th // 25^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 10^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 43^rd

Notes: I try to view Poulter as somewhat of a poor man’s Patrick Reed as his stats rarely pop, especially T2G and on APP, but he has one of the best short games in the field; finished T10 at Liberty National in 2019, has made 7 straight cuts with a T10/T3/T25 in that span, and if he gets the putter rolling, he has serious T10 or better upside at only 7700 and well under 10% pOWN%

3) Cameron Tringale ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 40^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 14^th
• BoB Gained – 65^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 12^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 27^th
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 16^th

Last 3 Starts – 16^th // 26^th // 14^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 16^th // 26^th // 14^th // MC // 26^th // 32^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // 58^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 74^th

Notes: I love Tringale as a value player in all formats this week as he’s gotten back on track with 3 straight made cuts in which he gained T2G and on APP in all 3, Bent is his second best putting surface and despite no high finishes has still seen Liberty National twice; he can go cold and make huge numbers (as he did at the PGA to miss the cut in epic fashion), but I love that he’s a strong long-iron player to go along with ranking 4^th in Bogey Avoidance and 12^th in SG: P on Bent

Fades

1) Corey Conners ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 60^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 83^rd
• BoB Gained – 98^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 109^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 121^st
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 84^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 36^th

Last 3 Starts – 36^th // 13^th // 15^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 36^th // 13^th // 15^th // MC // MC // 53^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 21^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 33^rd

Notes: Anyone who’s ever read any content from me knows my love for Conners but on a course that requires strong ARG play and putting… no thanks; Conners has lost strokes ARG in 6 of his last 7 measured events, has lost strokes putting 6 of his last 7, and I don’t love the course fit

2) Billy Horschel ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 106^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 109^th
• BoB Gained – 112^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 87^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 111^th
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 40^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 17^th

Last 3 Starts – 17^th // 53^rd // 54^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 17^th // 53^rd // 54^th // MC // 67^th // 40^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 21^st // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 68^th

Notes: He’ll probably make me look stupid and T5 but man those stats are… rough… usually known as a player with a strong short game, Horschel has lost strokes ARG in 3 straight events, lost strokes putting in 2 of his last 3, and he’s someone that I could see getting some buzz as a short game “specialist” and I’m fine pivoting to several others in his price range

Favorite Pivot

1) Gary Woodland ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 58^th
• SG: APP (Blended but emphasis on 75-100 and 175-200) – 64^th
• BoB Gained – 41^st
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 45^th
• SG: SG (Short Game)/SG: ARG – 52^nd
• SG: Bogey Avoidance – 74^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 7^th // 11^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 7^th // 11^th // MC // MC // 50^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 52^nd // 2^nd  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 52^nd

Notes: Maybe I’m too high on Woodland but I feel like he’s underpriced when factoring in his OWGR and long-term talent; his stats don’t “pop” per say, and he is a below average putter, but his ARG game is better than people think in my opinion, his best surface is Bent (relatively), and he ranks better in strong fields/tougher courses as he has the distance to still make birdies but when the putter is working he has T10 or better upside as shown earlier this year at the Wells Fargo and a former winner at a comp course, TPC Scottsdale

OTHERS I LIKE: Jason Kokrak // Sergio Garcia // Shane Lowry // Kevin Streelman // Charley Hoffman

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Maverick McNealy ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Has had a great season and current form is solid with 5 straight made cuts with no finish worse than T30 to go along with 3 T20s or better; McNealy can get hot with the putter and I prefer him on courses like this with smaller greens as his ARG game isn’t awful but also isn’t superb either… gained T2G in 5 straight events, gained on APP in his last 3 and ranks 15^th in the field in Bogey Avoidance

2) Mackenzie Hughes ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: In general I cannot stand Hughes as he seemingly chips in 14 times a round and makes about 5-6 90+ foot putts every round too; nevertheless, at a course that requires elite ARG/Short Game, Hughes makes sense as he’s 20^th in SG: SG, 28^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 26^th in SG: P on Bent… no one ever plays him as he won’t pop in stats so he should be decent leverage in the sub 7k range

3) Pat Perez ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: While not comparable players, like Hughes, Perez has a stronger short game than most realize as he’s 22^nd in the field in SG: SG, 4^th in SG: P on Bent and 39^th in BoB Gained… ranks 44^th in my course fit model, one of the best in the 6k range, and while he’s missed both cuts at Liberty National, I do give him a slight bump that he’s seen it twice

4) Sam Ryder ($6,000) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Stone min punt and yes, I know I always play him… his stats are pretty damn good for being the min as he’s 65^th in the field T2G, 49^th on SG: APP, 42^nd SG: SG, 19^th BoB, and 19^th SG: P on Bent… the putter can be BAD but at this price, a made cut is mega value and his form isn’t bad either, with 4 straight made cuts that includes a 3^rd at the Barbasol, T25 at the 3M Open, and T35 at the Wyndham

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Jordan Spieth

3) Patrick Cantlay

4) Daniel Berger

5) Paul Casey

6) Patrick Reed

7) Tyrrell Hatton

8) Ian Poulter

9) Kevin Streelman

10) Cameron Tringale

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 15% Course History

1. Jon Rahm
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Daniel Berger
5. Paul Casey
6. Harris English
7. Dustin Johnson
8. Scottie Scheffler
9. Abraham Ancer
10. Rory McIlroy
11. Xander Schauffele
12. Hideki Matsuyama
13. Brooks Koepka
14. Branden Grace
15. Patrick Cantlay
16. Cameron Smith
17. Bryson DeChambeau
18. Viktor Hovland
19. Sam Burns
20. Webb Simpson

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!