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Course: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, IL

Fast Facts

• Par 71; 7268 yards
• Easy scoring with 3 Par 5s, easy to hit fairways
• Bentgrass greens
• Average size greens (5500 sq. ft. on average)
• 78 bunkers with only 3 water hazards
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• AVG Cut: -3
• Corollary Courses: Conway Farms, TPC Summerlin, TPC River Highlands, TPC Twin Cities, RTJ Trail (Barbasol), Detroit Golf Club
• Top Course Fit Targets: Brian Harman, Daniel Berger, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Russell Henley, Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Sungjae Im, Beau Hossler, Kevin Na, Kevin Streelman, Johnson Wagner

Course and Weather Notes: The weakest field probably of the entire year and probably the easiest scoring course of the year is the penultimate tournament to our final major next week as the TOUR stops in Silvis, IL for the “Steve Stricker/Zach Johnson Open” with Stricker having won 3 in a row here with numerous T10s or better while ZJ has made 9 straight cuts here with a win and 5 other T5s or better. Similar to last week, we need guys who make a TON of birdies, hit greens at a high clip, and can get a hot putter. Similar to last week, I won’t be looking at much if any ARG stats and will focus more on accuracy off the tee as opposed to distance as clearly distance is not a prerequisite for some of the former winners. Expect volatility with a high cut number, don’t be surprised by a longshot or first-time winner, and get ready for next week as it should be an awesome one to close the major season!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Brian Harman ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 6^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 29^th
• BoB Gained – 6^th
• SG: OTT – 33^rd
• Opportunities Gained – 36^th
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 5^th

Last 3 Starts – 5^th // 19^th // 8^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 5^th // 19^th // 8^th // MC // 18^th // 13^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 26^th // 10^th // MC // 24^th // 1^st // MC // 19^th

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Notes: Continues to be chalk and continues to show up each week in what has been one of the better stretches of his career; former winner at this course, ranks 6^th in the field T2G, 6^th BoB, 12^th SG: P on Bent; his APP can be a little hit/miss but he has gained strokes T2G, OTT, and ARG in 9 of his last 10 starts and is an elite wedge player

2) Maverick McNealy ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 21^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 69^th
• BoB Gained – 8^th
• SG: OTT – 1^st
• Opportunities Gained – 24^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 32^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 21^st

Last 3 Starts – 21^st // 30^th // 20^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 21^st // 30^th // 20^th // MC // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 44^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Ranks 1^st in the field in SG: OTT as he has gained over 4 strokes in his last 2 starts, ranks 8^th in BoB, and Top 25 in the field in T2G and Opportunities Gained; I like McNealy a lot better in the weaker and birdie-fest type courses

Fades

1) Sungjae Im ($10,700) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 8^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 21^st
• BoB Gained – 12^th
• SG: OTT – 32^nd
• Opportunities Gained – 62^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 50^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 8^th

Last 3 Starts – 8^th // 35^th // 35^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 8^th // 35^th // 35^th // MC // MC // 17^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 26^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Nothing in particular about Sungjae looks “bad” but 1) I can’t play everyone, 2) I think he’ll gain a lot of ownership since he’s the 2^nd most expensive and at this price point/ownership, I want players to be a little more consistent; he’s come back around the last few but it seems like every round a random part of his game whether it be APP, OTT, ARG, etc is a little bit off

2) Alex Noren ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 12^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 73^rd
• BoB Gained – 24^th
• SG: OTT – 11^th
• Opportunities Gained – 87^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 4^th  

Last 3 Starts – 4^th // MC // 13^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 4^th // MC // 13^th // 55^th // 21^st // 21^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Somewhat similar to Sungjae, I don’t know if I like Noren at this price to be able to rack up the amount of birdies to be competitive/pay off his price; his APP game is never that spot on but he is able to make it up with an excellent short game and hitting a lot of fairways; I’m also a little curious as to why he’s here as I believe he’s in the British Open next week and has no course history

Favorite Pivot

1) Patton Kizzire ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 67^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 46^th
• BoB Gained – 16^th
• SG: OTT – 129^th
• Opportunities Gained – 5^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 16^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 25^th

Last 3 Starts – 25^th // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 25^th // MC // MC // MC // 3^rd // 3^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 30^th // 25^th   

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I mentioned last week in this column how volatile and crazy Kizzire is in term’s of finishes/stats and it’s clear to me at least that I should always target him in birdie fests and stay away on harder courses; he got it back last week as the putter was working and he gained over 2 strokes on APP; he will need to have the putter hot but it’s encouraging to see him rank 16^th in the field in BoB, 5^th in Opps. Gained, and 16^th in SG: P on Bent

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Hank Lebioda ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 13^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 17^th
• BoB Gained – 4^th
• SG: OTT – 47^th
• Opportunities Gained – 57^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 3^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 4^th

Last 3 Starts – 4^th // 5^th // 31^st

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 4^th // 5^th // 31^st // 17^th // 51^st // 13^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Doesn’t feel great to be paying this price for Lebioda when he’s been sub 7k most of the year but the price actually makes sense as he’s made his last 6 cuts, gained on APP in 4 of his last 5, gained T2G in 6 straight starts, and has back to back top 5s… him being mega-chalk certainly isn’t appealing but in a field this weak, he seems like a strong option in all formats with his current form/stats

2) Jhonattan Vegas ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 1^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 16^th
• BoB Gained – 14^th
• SG: OTT – 8^th
• Opportunities Gained – 4^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 125^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 57^th

Last 3 Starts – 57^th // 2^nd // 69^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 57^th // 2^nd // 69^th // 9^th // 43^rd // 38^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 37^th // 44^th // 3^rd // MC // 68^th   

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Crazy to look at the stats of the whole field and see Vegas rank 1^st here in SG: T2G as well as 8^th in SG: OTT, 4^th in Opps. Gained and Top 16 in both SG: APP and BoB Gained; he’s made 6 straight cuts with his 2 best finishes, T2 and T9, coming at similar birdie fest/high scoring tournaments as shown as he’s a top course fit based on the course comps listed at the top

3) Pat Perez ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 31^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 36^th
• BoB Gained – 5^th
• SG: OTT – 84^th
• Opportunities Gained – 104^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 14^th

Last 3 Starts – 14^th // MC // 10^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 14^th // MC // 10^th // 45^th // 39^th // 26^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 37^th // 55^th // MC // MC // WD // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Made 6 of his last 7 starts, gained on APP in 6 of those last 7; his stats are better than most would I assume as he’s 31^st T2G, 5^th in BoB and SG: P on Bent and when looking at DK Points/Birdies over his last 5, he’s averaged 17 birdies per tournament (tied 2^nd most) and 8^th most DK points per tournament, good for 8^th in the field

Fades

1) Doug Ghim ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 15^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 27^th
• BoB Gained – 46^th
• SG: OTT – 30^th
• Opportunities Gained – 10^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 94^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 32^nd

Last 3 Starts – 32^nd // 54^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 32^nd // 54^th // MC // 14^th // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – WD

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I’m a fan of Ghim but I feel like his putting has stayed bad but the irons have somewhat gone cold as he’s lost strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4, he’s only averaged 11 birdies per tournament over his last 5, and ranks 27^th in the field in SG: APP and 30^th in SG: OTT… he could get hot but I would rather play guys around him, especially at lower ownership

2) Beau Hossler ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 16^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 52^nd
• BoB Gained – 38^th
• SG: OTT – 25^th
• Opportunities Gained – 68^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 37^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 25^th

Last 3 Starts – 25^th // 10^th // 19^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 25^th // 10^th // 19^th // MC // 77^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 26^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I’m a little bit confused on why he’s becoming a chalk option even though this field is weak as he’s lost strokes on APP in 3 of his last 5 and when the putter isn’t working, or he’s not gaining strokes ARG (which is not useful here), he drops down the leaderboard and can make big numbers i.e. double/triple here and there… at this ownership, easy fade for me

Favorite Pivot

1) Keith Mitchell ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 52^nd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 108^th
• BoB Gained – 22^nd
• SG: OTT – 11^th
• Opportunities Gained – 21^st
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 83^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // MC // 26^th // 3^rd // 69^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 7^th  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Mitchell keeps burning me but now he’ll be unowned again, he’s missed 3 straight cuts, and the APP rank isn’t great at 108^th in the field; however, he can get a VERY hot putter and he ranks 11^th in the field in SG: OTT, 22^nd in BoB, and 21^st in Opps. Gained… only 1 start but it is good to see that in his only start he finished T7

OTHERS I LIKE: Kyle Stanley // Scott Stallings // Brice Garnett // Scott Piercy // C.T. Pan // Ryan Armour // Satoshi Kodaira

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Roger Sloan ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: The irons have left him over the last few but Sloan has still gained strokes T2G in 6 straight events, has played here twice to the finishes of T10/T18 and while he is volatile, he’s sub 7k in a VERY weak field and can rack of birdies if the putter is working

2) Ben Martin ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Burned me a few weeks ago but Martin has made 3 of 4 cuts here with a T2 5 years ago… similar to Sloan, he has a lot of volatility but aside from the last 2 weeks has played the easier field/easier courses quite well and is on his best putting surface in Bentgrass

3) Wes Roach ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: No really high finishes for Roach but he has made his last 5 cuts and seeing as how he plays predominantly in weaker fields/alternate events, this course and field should suit him; finished T10 here 2 years ago when it was last played; ranks 25^th in the field in BoB and Top 50 in SG: OTT and SG: Putting on Bentgrass (his best surface historically)

Cash Game Options

1) Brian Harman

2) Kevin Streelman

3) Maverick McNealy

4) Troy Merritt

5) Hank Lebioda

6) Jhonattan Vegas

7) Kyle Stanley

8) Scott Stallings

9) C.T. Pan

10) Ryan Armour

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 5% Course History

1. Brian Harman
2. Daniel Berger
3. Kevin Streelman
4. Aaron Wise
5. Steve Stricker
6. Seamus Power
7. Troy Merritt
8. Hank Lebioda
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Alex Noren
11. Kyle Stanley
12. Jhonattan Vegas
13. Cameron Davis
14. Sungjae Im
15. Russell Henley
16. Si Woo Kim
17. Patton Kizzire
18. Lucas Glover
19. Kramer Hickok
20. Scott Stallings

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!