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Course: PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Fast Facts

• Par 70; 7125 yards designed by Fazio with redesigns by Jack Nicklaus most recently 2013
• FAST Bermuda greens (12-13 on the stimp)
• Large greens (approx. 7000 sq. ft)
• Field: 144 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average Cut: +2 or +3
• 78 bunkers, water in play on 15/18 holes
• Wind can make the course extremely difficult
• Home to the “Bear Trap” (extremely tough stretch; holes 15-17)
• Corollary Courses: Bay Hill, East Lake, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Southwind
• Top Course Fit Targets: Henrik Stenson, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Daniel Berger, Chez Reavie, Adam Scott, Luke List, Rickie Fowler, Jim Furyk, Brendan Steele, Lee Westwood, Russell Henley

Course and Weather Notes: Definitely a week to pay attention to the weather as Monday showed brutal conditions on Sunday but as of this writing (early Tuesday afternoon), the weekend looks slightly calmer with possible sustained 20+ MPH gusts all Thursday/most of Friday… this course is a brute, consistently ranking in the Top 10 in difficulty on the TOUR (5^th hardest last year) as trouble lurks everywhere with water on 15 of 18 holes and no player truly safe inside the cut line when they still have the “Bear Trap” to play (holes 15-17) and the course having 14/18 holes that average over par year over year. As always, SG: APP is paramount, but I will be heavily weighting SG: OTT with an emphasis on fairways, SG: P on Bermuda, and players’ ability to scramble/avoid bogeys as this not traditionally a birdie fest with the winning score in single digits 4 of the last 5 events and all previous winners (with the exception of Sungjae who’s only played twice) sporting a MC at the event at some point in their career. Lastly, similar to last week, I would caution getting too overweight to certain players, even the “safer” options as the carnage is normally similar to the PLAYERS and it should be -EV to roster someone like Berger/Niemann/Im at 2x the field (50-60%) and risk a ton of your rosters in a very unpredictable week. Onto the picks!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach Blend (emphasis on 150-200 yards)
• SG: OTT Blend (Fairway emphasis)
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: T2G
• SG: Par 4s
• Birdie or Better%/Opportunities Gained

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Joaquin Niemann ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 50^th SG: APP/8^th SG: OTT/31^st SG: P/30^th Bogey Avoid/6^th SG: T2G/23^rd SG: P4s/15^th BoB

Form: 29^th/28^th/43^rd/2^nd/2^nd

Course History: MC/59^th

Notes: I debated most of Monday/Tuesday morning what to do with the top of the board but with all the top priced guys chalky, a possible (rumored) injury to Berger and Sungjae more expensive, I’ll elect to side with Niemann as he’s made every cut since last August, has gained on APP in 8 of his last 9 events, gained OTT in 13 straight events, and is a very strong wind player if the conditions hold like they’re predicted to over the weekend

2) Cameron Tringale ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 15^th SG: APP/9^th SG: OTT/40^th SG: P/7^th Bogey Avoid/4^th SG: T2G/32^nd SG: P4s/5^th BoB

Form: MC/31^st/26^th/7^th/17^th/18^th/56^th

Course History: 27^th/36^th/MC/65^th/MC/44^th/41^st/MC/47^th/43^rd

Notes: First MC since last November but I won’t hold that against him too much given the strength of field/difficult of the course… still gained strokes on APP and compared to the field Tringale has great stats as he ranks top 40 or better in each category I’m evaluating this week; his course history isn’t anything special but he has been somewhat “consistent” with 10 appearances and a made cut in 8/10 which for this course is more than impressive and he could go under owned given the names around him and his price shock

Fades

1) Adam Scott ($10,100) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 59^th SG: APP/108^th SG: OTT/17^th SG: P/36^th Bogey Avoid/85^th SG: T2G/51^st SG: P4s/8^th BoB

Form: 48^th/54^th/38^th/10^th/41^st/21^st

Course History: MC/13^th/14^th/1^st/12^th/MC

Notes: I wasn’t on Scott last week and don’t feel the need to play him this week either; he will probably be the lowest or 2nd lowest owned in the upper tier but he’s on his worst putting surface, has lost over 5 strokes OTT in back-to-back events and if the putter cools off he could be in trouble with how his ball striking has been the last month or so

2) Chris Kirk ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 43^rd SG: APP/25^th SG: OTT/75^th SG: P/18^th Bogey Avoid/1^st SG: T2G/13^th SG: P4s/1^st BoB

Form: 48^th/8^th/16^th/MC/16^th/2^nd

Course History: MC/MC/33^rd/MC/MC/12^th/51^st/56^th/29^th

Notes: I feel like I’ve been riding the Kirk train for many weeks and although he rates out well, I think he could be higher owned than I think and this isn’t an event where I prefer to eat the chalk with how much carnage there is year in and year out; his APP/OTT/T2G game has been solid but at this price tag I would prefer more upside and he’s struggled at this course in the past, with a MC in 4 of his last 5 appearances

 Favorite Pivot (at $8500 this week)

1) Matt Wallace ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 42^nd SG: APP/59^th SG: OTT/25^th SG: P/98^th Bogey Avoid/30^th SG: T2G/66^th SG: P4s/22^nd BoB

Form: 18^th/MC/MC/51^st/7^th

Course History: MC/20^th

Notes: Note that the stats above are limited since he plays mostly on the Euro but with most of the 9K and above range 12% owned or higher, I dipped down to Wallace at 8500; I think with Keegan/Steele/Cam Davis/Kirk around him he’ll go overlooked but per his Euro Tour stats, he’s Top 40 in SG: T2G/SG: OTT/SG: Putting, is a very strong wind player, and has a T18/T7 in 2 of his last 5 worldwide starts and finished T20 at PGA National 2 years ago

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Brendan Steele ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 66^th SG: APP/5^th SG: OTT/56^th SG: P/15^th Bogey Avoid/12^th SG: T2G/31^st SG: P4s/72^nd BoB

Form: 41^st/18^th/43^rd/34^th/30^th/21^st/4^th

Course History: 4^th/MC/14^th/14^th/11^th/33^rd/51^st/76^th/63^rd

Notes: He could be semi-chalk with this weak field, but Steele has been playing strong, consistent golf, has made 8/9 cuts at PGA National with a T4 in 2020 and 3 more T14s or better in his last 5 starts; his APP game has been volatile in his past several events, but he’s made 7 straight cuts, gained OTT in 9 straight events and is a better around the green/scrambler than many realize

2) Matt Jones ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 95^th SG: APP/66^th SG: OTT/21^st SG: P/14^th Bogey Avoid/44^th SG: T2G/17^th SG: P4s/51^st BoB

Form: 55^th/MC/8^th/34^th/30^th/48^th/21^st/11^th

Course History: 47^th/36^th/MC/MC/18^th

Notes: I think I play Jones more than most but he’s always around the same price and carries high made cut equity and upside as he’s gained on APP in 6 of his last 8 events, is on by far his best putting surface, and is one of the better wind players if the weather worsens over the weekend; 11 made cuts in his last 12 events and has made his last 2 cuts at PGA National

3) James Hahn ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 12^th SG: APP/77^th SG: OTT/22^nd SG: P/28^th Bogey Avoid/32^nd SG: T2G/1^st SG: P4s/23^rd BoB

Form: 41^st/15^th/MC/10^th/MC/32^nd/41^st

Course History: MC/MC (last played in 2014)

Notes: Not sure the last time I played Hahn, but his stats have been sneaky good over his last several events with 4 or more strokes gained on APP in 3 of his last 4, over 2 strokes gained T2G in 3 of his last 4, and ranking 1st in the field in SG: Par 4s (2 more this week than typical Par 72 track); obviously comes with risk, but Hahn hits a lot of fairways and has 5 T15s or better in 12 events in the 2021 season

Fades

1) Byeong Hun An ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 54^th SG: APP/113^th SG: OTT/134^th SG: P/40^th Bogey Avoid/72^nd SG: T2G/80^th SG: P4s/78^th BoB

Form: MC/43^rd/35^th/53^rd/75^th/8^th

Course History: 4^th/36^th/5^th

Notes: I think Benny An could be popular this week as the field is weak and he has 2 T5s in 2 of his last 3 starts here but his ball striking seems way off and I much prefer him on a birdie fest over a grinding week like PGA National (despite his previous high finishes); he’s lost strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4 measured events, lost OTT in 4 straight, and the putter as usual continues to be bad… I’ll pivot elsewhere

2) Ryan Moore ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 27^th SG: APP/4^th SG: OTT/91^st SG: P/13^th Bogey Avoid/13^th SG: T2G/40^th SG: P4s/38^th BoB

Form: 35^th/26^th/MC/MC/MC

Course History: 49^th/77^th

Notes: I’m not sure when Moore lost the ability to scramble or putt but despite ranking decently in my stat model, he’s too inconsistent and could get decent ownership with his historic strong Bermuda splits; he’s lost on APP in 2 of his last 3 events, has 4 MC and no finish better than 26th in his last 6 events and if he’s going to be near 10%, I will easily pivot to other guys around him

Favorite Pivot

1) Brandon Wu ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats (via Korn Ferry): 2^nd SG: APP/46^th Scrambling/52^nd Driving Accuracy/58^th SG: P/64^th BoB

Form: 7^th/14^th

Course History: None

Notes: Not a lot to go off of with Brandon Wu but he’s been a beast on the Korn Ferry tour as he won the Korn Ferry Championship in 2020 and recently finish T7 at the Puerto Rico Open a few weeks ago; limited PGA Tour starts but does have a T17 at the Houston Open, he finished T35 at the 2019 US Open; in his last 7 starts across all tours he has a 1^st/10^th/2^nd/14^th/7^th and has high upside at minimal OWN%

OTHERS I LIKE: Cam Davis/Kevin Streelman/KH Lee/Luke List/Michael Thompson/Richy Werenski

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Cameron Percy ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Older Australian who doesn’t have distance but hits a ton of fairways and has been in solid form with strokes gained on APP in 5 straight events and 10 of his last 11; ranks 24^th in the field in SG: T2G, 33^rd SG: APP, 9^th in BoB/Opps. Gained, and 29^th in Bogey Avoidance; per his current form, only 6900 and has 3 Top 30s or better in his last 4 events

2) John HUHHHHHHHH??????!!!!!!! ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Coming back to the Johnny question marks train as he’s taken several weeks off but has solid course history for a sub 7k player with 3 T24 finishes or better in his last 6 starts at PGA National; putter can be really bad, but he does rank 17^th in the field T2G, 22^nd SG: OTT, and Top 40 in BoB/Opps. Gained and Par 4 scoring

3) Tom Hoge ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Hoge has really been playing well and his stats show it, as he’s 31^st T2G, 10^th SG: APP, 14^th BoB/Opps. Gained, 36^th SG: P on Bermuda, and 10^th in SG: Par 4s; his course history isn’t great with 3 straight MC, but his current form is good with strokes gained on APP in 5 straight events and on the only putting surface that he historically gains strokes per round

4) Sam Ryder ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Pure punt that will be unowned but is strong T2G with a weaker short game; worth noting that Bermuda is his best putting surface and has gained OTT in 4 of his last 5 events while struggling mightily with his putter/around the greens

5) Brice Garnett ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: <1%

Quick Hits: I’m pretty much the only guy who plays Garnett and I wouldn’t use him in a single entry/3 max, but he is near the min price, is a surprisingly above average wind player and is a good putter/good off the tee; the irons have been poor lately with he’s gained OTT in 5 of his last 6, finished 5^th at the Puerto Rico Open a few weeks ago and finished 11^th at PGA National last year

Cash Game Options

1) Sungjae Im   

2) Daniel Berger

3) Joaquin Niemann

4) Russell Henley

5) Cameron Tringale

6) Brendan Steele

7) Cameron Davis

8) Kevin Streelman

9) Michael Thompson

10) Richy Werenski

11) Cameron Percy

12) John Huh

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History

1. Daniel Berger
2. Lee Westwood
3. Sungjae Im
4. Talor Gooch
5. Chris Kirk
6. Joaquin Niemann
7. Keegan Bradley
8. Cameron Tringale
9. Brendan Steele
10. Shane Lowry
11. Adam Scott
12. Richy Werenski
13. Matt Jones
14. Jim Furyk
15. Cameron Davis
16. Michael Thompson
17. James Hahn
18. Matthew NeSmith
19. Russell Henley
20. Kyoung-Hoon Lee

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!