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Course: Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, TX

Fast Facts

• Par 70; 7209 yards designed by Bredemus and Maxwell (electric names)
• Bentgrass greens
• SMALL greens (5000 sq. ft. on average)
• Longer rough (approx. 3 inches)
• Field: 121 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Holes with Water Hazards: 6
• Texas Wind the biggest defense
• Fairways are TIGHT with the Driving Accuracy around 55% year over year
• Corollary Courses: Harbour Town, TPC Potomac, Firestone CC, Hamilton GC, TPC Sawgrass
• Top Course Fit Targets: Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose, Abraham Ancer, Justin Thomas, Ian Poulter, J.T. Poston, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, Adam Hadwin, Si Woo Kim

Course and Weather Notes: Congratulations to 50-year old Phil Mickelson, winner of the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah, the longest course in Major Championship history… phew what a performance and despite not being a lifelong Phil man, having no monetary benefit from the win, and definitely a “surprising” performance given his last few years on TOUR, that was so awesome to watch. Not only did Phil win and outlast the Major Killer Brooks and South African Louis Oosthuizen, he rarely faltered and held the lead from Friday to the close on Sunday! Hats off to Phil with one of the most iconic and unforgettable wins of all time and showing what makes this sport so incredible: 2020 PGA Championship Winner Collin Morikawa was 22 years old and the 2021 PGA Championship Winner was 50 years old.

This week we get a surprisingly strong-ish field for a post-major event as we return to the first tournament held after the COVID-19 stoppage last year and a course that has held an event here every year since 1946 I believe. Colonial is a tight, tree-lined, Par 70 that can be susceptible to wind but has a lot of defenses all around such as very small greens (5000 sq. ft. on average), tighter fairways, and the 2 Par 5s are some of the most difficult on TOUR. There are birdies to be had with the shorter distance but Scrambling and SG: OTT with an emphasis on Fairways will be paramount. Lastly, although distance is not “required” or as big of an edge as normal weeks, it is always important to note that having distance off the tee will never hurt you or be a disadvantage so while shorter hitters such as Russell Knox, Zach Johnson (former winner), Brandt Snedeker, etc. may be more live for a high finish, it doesn’t discount the bombers. Let’s get to it!

Onto the picks in which I tried to switch up the format a little bit so please let me know what you think!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Ball Striking
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
• BoB Gained
• Scrambling
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Jordan Spieth ($11,200) → Projected Ownership: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 12^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 10^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 33^rd
• BoB Gained – 11^th
• Scrambling – 14^th
• GIRs Gained – 9^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 26^th

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 30^th

Last 3 Starts – 30^th // 9^th // 3^rd  

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 30^th // 9^th // 3^rd // 1^st // 9^th // 48^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 10^th // 8^th // 32^nd // 2^nd // 1^st // 2^nd // 14^th // 7^th

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 3

Top 10s: 6

Top 20s: 7

Notes: As my pick to win last week and complete the slam, that putting performance left a lot to be desired as Spieth was once again dominant T2G, having now gained in 10 straight measured tournaments, and now comes to a place that he’s played 8 times and finished in the Top 20 7 times with a win and two runner ups… he’s the highest priced, he will be chalk, but I can’t fade him with the exquisite history and terrific form

2) Collin Morikawa ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 21%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 1^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 2^nd
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 3^rd
• BoB Gained – 7^th
• Scrambling – 92^nd
• GIRs Gained – 1^st
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 110^th

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 8^th  

Last 3 Starts – 8^th // MC // 7^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 8^th // MC // 7^th // 18^th // 56^th // 41^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 2^nd  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: I’m not exactly going “against the grain” (no pun intended) with these first 2 plays but Morikawa’s stats are ridiculous, ranking in the Top 3 in the field in SG: BS/APP/OTT and he almost won here last year before losing to Berger in a playoff after a 3 foot miss for par; however, while his putting is horrible, we’ve seen that in those spike weeks where he gains a few he’s almost always near the top and I’ll bet on his continued dominant ball striking and hope these smaller greens treat him better

Fades

1) Daniel Berger ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 7^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 3^rd
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 5^th
• BoB Gained – 12^th
• Scrambling – 108^th
• GIRs Gained – 5^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 37^th

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 75^th

Last 3 Starts – 75^th // 3^rd // 13^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 75^th // 3^rd // 13^th // MC // 18^th // 9^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 1^st // 53^rd // MC

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: More than anything, this is a fade on my expected ownership on Berger as the week goes on and that I can’t play everyone; his ball striking continues to be supreme, but he’s really struggled around the greens, losing in 4 of his 5 last measured tournaments, which is a key stat with these much smaller than average greens (only 5000 sq. ft. on avg); Berger isn’t a bad play by any means, obviously, but I prefer others around him more this week

2) Jason Kokrak ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 19^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 26^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 26^th
• BoB Gained – 21^st
• Scrambling – 23^rd
• GIRs Gained – 41^st
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 3^rd

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 49^th

Last 3 Starts – 49^th // 13^th // 21^st

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 49^th // 13^th // 21^st // 49^th // 42^nd // 9^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 3^rd // 32^nd // MC // 55^th // MC // 18^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Notes: I’m very sour on Kokrak personally as a quad this past Sunday tanked his whole round and he dropped from inside the Top 15 to finish T49; nevertheless, similar to Berger, his around the green game has seriously lacked on top of gaining a ton of strokes with the putter (3/3/4.2 over his last 3) despite historically being well below average… I’ll bet on some regression here and hope that the wind blows

Favorite Pivot – “Pivot” this week as he’ll be owned for sure, but I think most of the top end guys that I like have some decent ownership

1) Scottie Scheffler ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 17^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 27^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 4^th
• BoB Gained – 6^th
• Scrambling – 106^th
• GIRs Gained – 54^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 62^nd

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 8^th

Last 3 Starts – 8^th // 47^th // 29^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 8^th // 47^th // 29^th // 8^th // 18^th// 54^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 55^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: With the horrendous coverage by CBS on Sunday, I’m not sure I ever even saw a Scheffler shot despite a very quiet T8 finish at the PGA Championship… Scottie has now made 5 straight cuts, gained OTT in his last 4, gained T2G in his last 8 measured tournaments and obviously we have to acknowledge the narrative of him being a Texas boy… his win is coming soon

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Charley Hoffman ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 5^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 15^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 27^th
• BoB Gained – 1^st
• Scrambling – 36^th
• GIRs Gained – 10^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 55^th

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 17^th

Last 3 Starts – 17^th // 18^th // 11^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 17^th // 18^th // 11^th // 18^th // 2^nd // 34^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – MC // 13^th // 52^nd // 24^th // 42^nd // 10^th // 51^st // 18^th // 13^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 4

Notes: Could honestly be the highest owned of the week so a near auto-cash play for me but at any ownership like this, always a very smart fade in GPPs unless you want to play 50% or so… his stats are great, gaining on APP in 7 of his last 8 tournaments and of those 7, gaining over 5 strokes on APP compared to the field in 6 of them; 9 straight made cuts with a T17 last week and 3 other Top 10s, 2 more Top 20s, I can’t fade him even as the expected chalk

2) Matt Kuchar ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 52^nd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 32^nd
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 71^st
• BoB Gained – 63^rd
• Scrambling – 26^th
• GIRs Gained – 62^nd
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 43^rd

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 17^th // 18^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 17^th // 18^th // MC // 12^th // 3^rd  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – MC // 32^nd // 12^th // 6^th // MC // 2^nd // 26^th // 16^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 4

Notes: Horrendous putting last week at the PGA Champ had Kuchar not very close to the cut but in the last month or so he’s turned things around a bit with 3 made cuts in his last 5 with a T12/T18/T17 in 3 of those 5 and while none of his stats will ever “wow” you, he’s only 7600 with 4 T20s here in 8 starts and will hit a ton of fairways

3) Russell Knox ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 23^rd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 9^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 60^th
• BoB Gained – 93^rd
• Scrambling – 63^rd
• GIRs Gained – 11^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 103^rd

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 39^th

Last 3 Starts – 39^th // 18^th // 21^st

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 39^th // 18^th // 21^st // MC // MC// MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC / 8^th // 20^th // 24^th // 21^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Notes: Russell Knox has gained strokes on APP in 7 straight tournaments, has gained strokes T2G in 5 of his last 6, including 11.7 at the Wells Fargo yet somehow has no finish better than T18… his putter blows, and history says it will continue to suck, but he’s only 7300, clearly the ball striking is there, and he has success on comp courses with success at Harbour Town, Firestone, and 4 T25s here at Colonial

Fades

1) Cameron Tringale ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 41^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 35^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 48^th
• BoB Gained – 4^th
• Scrambling – 1^st
• GIRs Gained – 24^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 21^st

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC// 3^rd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC// 3^rd // MC // 9^th // 13^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 72^nd // 62^nd // 43rd // 63^rd // 54^th // MC // 65^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: That Friday round from Tringale was truly hard to watch with just an utter implosion and while he still has maintained one of, if not the best, season of his career, I’ll fade due to 1) preferring guys around him such as Harman/Grillo/Snedeker and 2) his OTT game has been a little shaky his last 2 starts combined with the fact that he has now missed back to back cuts for the first time since August of 2018

2) Doug Ghim ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 10^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 17^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 10^th
• BoB Gained – 86^th
• Scrambling – 66^th
• GIRs Gained – 4^th
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 115^th

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC // 11^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // 11^th // 33^rd // 44^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Rinse and repeat… yes Ghim’s ball striking is superb, yes I assume at some point it’ll flip, but negative SG: P in 7 straight events, negative SG: ARG in 4 of those 7 events and at a course where he’s missed the cut both times makes this an easy pass for me

Favorite Pivot

1) Sergio Garcia ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (blue indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: Ball Striking – 15^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 57^th
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained) – 11^th
• BoB Gained – 42^nd
• Scrambling – 57^th
• GIRs Gained – 21^st
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis) – 114^th

→ Recent Form (blue indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // MC // MC // 5^th // 9^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 12^th // 13^th // 16^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 3

Notes: I’m a complete hypocrite recommending Sergio after I just talked about how bad Ghim has been ARG/Putting when Sergio has been basically the same; however, the difference for me is that yes while Sergio is riding quite the cold streak, given this field, this is a misprice as Sergio has won in Texas, he won earlier this year, and he’s better than those around him such as Peter Uihlein, Camilo Villegas, Harold Varner, or Cameron Davis… his form is horrendous but I’ll hope that he returns to some long-term play here with probably 6-7% ownership or less

OTHERS I LIKE: Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Harold Varner III, Joel Dahmen, Lucas Glover, Jhonattan Vegas, Troy Merritt

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Zach Johnson ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: The good? ZJ ranks 8^th in this field in Scrambling and 2^nd in SG: P on Bentgrass… the bad? Most everything else; however, ZJ’s stats and perception will be skewed by his finish last week when it was one bad hole where he took a 10 (and even acknowledged it on Twitter) to miss the cut by a few… his current form is not very strong, but I’ll bet on his long-term form, this shorter course being a good fit and him being more talented than those in this price range

2) Adam Schenk ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: I don’t know why I keep playing Schenk because it never works out but the 1 out of 100 it does, I don’t want to miss it… he’s gained on APP in 3 of his last 4 starts and in those starts he finished T25, at Harbour Town, T18 at Valspar, and T34 at Byron Nelson; his best putting surface is Bent and if he can just not blow up he can hit serious value with a T25 or better finish at little to no ownership

3) Brice Garnett ($6,200) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Is his form good? No, no it is not; however, he is a good Bentgrass putter, ranking Top 50 in the field while also ranking 20^th in the field in GIRs Gained and Top 60 in Scrambling and SG: OTT… while those aren’t spectacular, when we adjust for him being near the stone min and probably 1% owned, I think he’s worth a GPP flier and hope he can get a hot putter

4) Vincent Whaley ($6,200) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: He could get trendy as a “cheap punt” but his consistency has been pretty impressive with 8 made cuts in a row that includes no finish worse than T36 in his last 7 and a T29/T26/T26 in his last 3; he’s gained strokes T2G and ARG in 3 straight and ranks 32^nd in this field in Scrambling, 10^th in BoB Gained, and 36^th in GIRs Gained… could he blow up? Of course, but only 6200 and big upside

Cash Game Options

1) Jordan Spieth

2) Collin Morikawa

3) Abraham Ancer

4) Scottie Scheffler

5) Corey Conners

6)  Charley Hoffman

7) Brandt Snedeker

8) Chris Kirk

9) Matt Kuchar

10) Lucas Glover

11) Russell Knox

12) Zach Johnson

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, and 15% Course History

1. Jordan Spieth
2. Abraham Ancer
3. Corey Conners
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Emiliano Grillo
6. Charley Hoffman
7. Daniel Berger
8. Justin Thomas
9. Patrick Reed
10. Brian Harman
11. Kevin Streelman
12. Tony Finau
13. Justin Rose
14. Will Zalatoris
15. Joaquin Niemann
16. Jason Kokrak
17. Chris Kirk
18. Phil Mickelson
19. Joel Dahmen
20. Gary Woodland

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!