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Courses: Pebble Beach GL and Spyglass Hill GC, Monterey, CA

Fast Facts

• Pebble Beach: Par 72, 7051 yards; Spyglass Hill: Par 72, 7041 yards
• Both coastal courses along the ocean with Poa greens
• Normally a pro-am with 3 guaranteed rounds; now only 2 courses with cut after Round 2
• VERY small greens on Pebble Beach (3500 sq. ft. on average; smallest on TOUR)
• Spyglass greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. on average
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Average Cut (previous years with 3 rounds): -5 or -6
• Emphasis on GIRs and scrambling with how small the greens are + Poa putting
• Driving Distance is mitigated with great wedge players (100-150) and Par 5 scoring key
• Corollary Courses: El Camaleon, Harbour Town GL, TPC River Highlands, Sea Island Course (Seaside), Torrey Pines South
• Top Course Fit Targets: Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, JB Holmes, Kevin Streelman, Jim Furyk, Jimmy Walker, Chez Reavie, Daniel Berger, Ryan Moore, Patrick Cantlay

Course and Weather Notes: Well, the DJ withdrawal the field certainly opened up for adjusted Vegas odds and probably more chalk condensed around the 10K+ plays such as Cantlay and Berger, as the field is much more spread out albeit still the weakest of the year by far. One thing that could be essential is the potential presence of high winds, at least for one of the waves, as I see rain most of the day on Thursday, with possible 15-20 MPH winds in the afternoon on both Thursday and Friday. Pebble has been played a ton in the past, both in multiple US opens and this yearly tournament, but with the absence of a Pro-Am we could see a similar situation to the AmEx a few weeks ago with not as long rounds, tougher pin placements, and different scoring as the normal 3 course rotation is now 2, with 3 rounds total on Pebble Beach and 1 round on Spyglass (hardest) and the removal of Monterey Peninsula. It seems obvious, but with how tiny these greens are, guys who stick out in GIRs Gained, can avoid big numbers with strong around the green game, and have a liking for Poa putting should contend here. With distance not a huge factor, we’ve seen a lot of success and even previous winners that are short hitters such as Kevin Streelman, Brandt Snedeker, Vaughn Taylor, and even Ted Potter Jr. Onto the picks and some very interesting pricing with DJ out.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach (emphasis on 100-125 and 200+)
• GIRs Gained
• Birdie or Better %
• SG: T2G
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)
• Bogey Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Daniel Berger ($10,100) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 41^st SG: APP/22^nd GIRs/8^th BoB/20^th T2G/1^st SG: P/32^nd Bogey Avoidance

Form: MC/7^th/10^th/23^rd

Course History: 5^th/10^th

Notes: DFS players are too aware now to not have Berger popular again, but he could be slightly less owned after the MC; despite being known as a strong Florida player, Berger’s best surface is Poa and while it wasn’t great as he lost 3 strokes on APP last week, he gained the previous 6 and still gained OTT last week for the 3^rd straight tournament; sneaky good history with 2 T10s in his only starts here.

2) Cameron Davis ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 9^th SG: APP/21^st GIRs/3^rd BoB/3^rd T2G/87^th SG: P/22^nd Bogey Avoidance

Form: 32^nd/3^rd/31^st/MC

Course History: 38^th/59^th/MC

Notes: Has corrected the irons, gaining 5.5 and 6.6 strokes on APP in his last 2 starts, has gained over 5 strokes T2G in 3 straight tournaments, and while a poor putter, is not too bad around the greens; not great course history, but does have 3 straight T32 finishes or better recently.

Fades

1) Jordan Spieth ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 49^th SG: APP/124^th GIRs/9^th BoB/40^th T2G/31^st SG: P/74^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 4^th/MC

Course History: 9^th/45^th/20^th/1^st/21^st/7^th/4^th/22^nd

Notes: It really was great to see Jordan find some form and putting ability last week but at what should be very high ownership and really only one tournament of strong APP and putting, I’ll pass here; great course history, and I’ll be rooting for him, but he’s still very wayward off the tee, losing almost 4 strokes OTT last week, and without a scorching putter last Saturday, he easily could have finished T20 or worse.

2) Sam Burns ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 12^th SG: APP/17^th GIRs/5^th BoB/12^th T2G/4^th SG: P/36^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 22^nd/18^th/MC

Course History: None

Notes: I was deciding between a fade here of Molinari or Burns, but ultimately I’ll pass on Burns as he’s an elite Bermuda putter but about average on other surfaces and he’s very volatile with a ton of birdie upside but also susceptible to making big numbers, as shown by losing 5 strokes around the green last week and losing almost 3 in his last 3 of 6 tournaments… also gained 10.9 strokes putting last week and still finished T22, which is certainly not sustainable in my opinion.

 Favorite Pivot

1) Si Woo Kim ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 1^st SG: APP/9^th GIRs/18^th BoB/1^st T2G/52^nd SG: P/3^rd Bogey Avoidance

Form: 50^th/MC/1^st/25^th

Course History: MC/4^th/MC/35^th/MC

Notes: People still see Si Woo as a WD risk but he’s been playing fantastic, having gained strokes on APP in 4 straight starts and should be one of the lowest owned in the 9k range; great around the green on a consistent basis, won only 3 starts ago, and has been known to get hot and never look back if the putter is working… love him as a leverage play off the very chalk Cantlay/Berger/Zalatoris/Day.

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Henrik Norlander ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 8^th SG: APP/5^th GIRs/41^st BoB/5^th T2G/43^rd SG: P/6^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 22^nd/2^nd/12^th/MC/MC

Course History: 25^th/39^th/MC/MC

Notes: Norlander has been a ball striking machine the last several tournaments despite the finishes and may seem overpriced; however, the field is weak, he’s gained in SG: APP in 6 straight measured tournaments, T2G in 3 straight, and as seen above, his form is very solid as well; love him in all formats.

2) Matt Jones ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 66^th SG: APP/18^th GIRs/15^th BoB/47^th T2G/18^th SG: P/8^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 30^th/48^th/21^st/11^th/44^th

Course History: 5^th/53^rd/MC/23^rd/11^th/7^th/45^th/30^th/MC/15^th

Notes: Certainly hasn’t had the finishes, but has gained T2G in his last 5 tournaments, gained on APP in 4 straight, and has made 8 straight cuts with a 4^th/11^th/21^st in that span; has sneaky strong course history with 8/10 made cuts that include 4 T15 finishes or better in his last 10.

3) Joel Dahmen ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 68^th SG: APP/51^st GIRs/17^th BoB/30^th T2G/60^th SG: P/68^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: MC/MC/MC/20^th/50^th

Course History: 14^th/55^th/48^th

Notes: The form is definitely not there so the ownership shouldn’t be either; Dahmen is a weird one, a worse version of Reed in some ways, where his stats don’t always rate out; he MC last week, but Friday he did shoot -6 to almost make the cut while gaining in APP and OTT in those 2 rounds as well so I’ll take the ownership discount and hope he can find the putter.

Fades

1) Max Homa ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 35^th SG: APP/60^th GIRs/6^th BoB/36^th T2G/104^th SG: P/25^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 42^nd/18^th/21^st/12^th

Course History: 14^th/10^th/MC/29^th/MC

Notes: I like Homa but I feel like his price has been raised too high while also becoming a consistently popular DFs play; his APP game is solid, he’s a good Poa putter, but he has been struggling off the tee, losing 2 or more strokes OTT in 3 straight on top of being more likely than others in this range to make the big double or triple bogeys; I’ll pass for others in this range.

2) Matthew NeSmith ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 17^th SG: APP/2^nd GIRs/38^th BoB/9^th T2G/102^nd SG: P/17^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: 7^th/48^th/MC/MC/15^th

Course History: 11^th

Notes: NeSmith seems more like a showdown play to me and seems very overpriced here… Poa is the only surface where he consistently loses strokes putting to the field, he’s lost OTT in 3 straight, and when the putter isn’t working, he has either missed the cut or finished around T50 or worse… I would rather have more consistency if paying 8k or more.

Favorite Pivot

1) Rory Sabbatini ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 69^th SG: APP (Nice)/42^nd GIRs/4^th BoB/37^th T2G/13^th SG: P/95^th Bogey Avoidance

Form: MC/10^th/12^th/MC/40^th/12^th

Course History: MC/72^nd/48^th/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/15^th

Notes: The stats certainly don’t show it all the way around, but Sabbatini has had some solid form coming in, albeit with some MC mixed in, but 3 T12s or better in his last 6 starts; the course history is horrific, so he shouldn’t be very high owned but he can make a ton of birdies (as he fired off 9 or 10 birdies last Friday in another MC performance) and I like that if the expected weather stays bad, he’s a very solid wind player.

OTHERS I LIKE: Kevin Streelman, Cameron Tringale, Chris Kirk, Doug Ghim, Chez Reavie, Kyle Stanley, Charley Hoffman, Scott Piercy

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Chesson Hadley ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Such a volatile player and usually lets me down but if the putter is working, he can get really hot; gains on average 0.11 strokes per round on Poa; form is bad with 3 straight MC, but has decent course history, with a T18 last year and 2 other T10s in a total of 6 starts at Pebble.

2) Jim Herman ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: I can confidently say I’ve never written up Jim Herman but that’s the state of this field… he does rank 44^th T2G, 15^th in GIRs Gained, and 37^th in Bogey Avoidance which for 6600 isn’t horrible and just a made cut is huge value.

3) Adam Schenk ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: His price has plummeted from a very months ago and I still like his T20 odds compared to his price (17.5% for me); ranks Top 50 in the field in T2G but just hasn’t putted well in a long time.

4) Chris Baker ($6,200) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Ranks 16^th in the field in T2G, 22^nd in SG: APP, 47^th in Bogey Avoidance; form isn’t great but did finish T38 here last year and is almost the min price; makes a ton of birdies but just needs to avoid the big numbers and he can provide a ton of value with a made cut.

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Cantlay                         

2) Daniel Berger

3) Jason Day

4) Cameron Davis

5) Kevin Streelman

6) Henrik Norlander

7) Cameron Tringale

8) Matt Jones

9) Rory Sabbatini

10) Doug Ghim

11) Joel Dahmen

12) Scott Piercy

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History Rank

1. Daniel Berger
2. Paul Casey
3. Cameron Tringale
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Henrik Norlander
6. Si Woo Kim
7. Chris Kirk
8. Jordan Spieth
9. Matt Jones
10. Rory Sabbatini
11. Will Zalatoris
12. James Hahn
13. Matthew NeSmith
14. Cameron Davis
15. Kevin Streelman
16. Francesco Molinari
17. Charley Hoffman
18. Doug Ghim
19. Jason Day
20. Peter Malnati

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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