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Courses: Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, FL

Fast Facts

• Par 72; 7454 yards with heavy redesigns from Arnold Palmer through 2014
• FAST Bermuda greens (12-13 on the stimp)
• LARGE greens (approx. 7500 sq. ft)
• Field: 123 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average Cut: +3
• 84 bunkers, water in play on 9/18 holes
• Wind can make the course extremely difficult (2020 the winning score was only -4)
• Corollary Courses: GC of Houston, Valspar (Innisbrook), Quail Hollow, TPC Sawgrass
• Top Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Francesco Molinari, Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Luke List, Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman

Course and Weather Notes: It’s still only Tuesday mid-morning so weather can obviously change, but we saw last year what wind can do to this field/course and the weekend looks like it could be BRUTAL with gusts on Saturday and sustained 25+ MPH winds all day on Sunday… all things equal, I like looking at similar, longer Bermuda courses such as Sawgrass, GC of Houston, or Valspar and although it can seem noisy, focusing on strong Par 5 scorers as those are essential to score on with how difficult most of the other parts of the course are with all Par 3s 200-225 yards and 4 Par 4s 450-500 yards; in particular, the Par 5 16^th boasts a birdie rate of around 57% with the total Par 5 BoB% about 40%. If you can, I would definitely wait till as late as possible to put in later bets and make lineups as there could definitely be a wave advantage… favor the long-hitters, players who excel on long approaches (200+ yards), and strong Bermuda/fast green putters.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach (emphasis on 200+ yards)
• Birdie or Better %/Opportunities Gained
• SG: OTT
• SG: Putting (Bermuda Emphasis)
• SG: T2G
• SG: Par 5s

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,500) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 37^th SG: APP/4^th BoB,Opps/6^th SG: OTT/59^th SG: P/5^th SG: T2G/41^st SG: Par 5s

Form: 6^th/MC/13^th/16^th/3^rd

Course History: 5^th/6^th/1^st/4^th/27^th/11^th

Notes: On his best putting surface, gained 8 strokes T2G last week and finished T6 despite not seemingly having everything clicking… now he goes to a course where his worst finish is 6^th in the last 4 attempts and I still can’t believe how long it’s been since he’s won… fade at your own risk

2) Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 27^th SG: APP/22^nd BoB,Opps/25^th SG: OTT/13^th SG; P/13^th SG: T2G/91^st SG: Par 5s

Form: 11^th/5^th/17^th/MC/1^st

Course History: 9^th/2^nd/MC/13^th/27^th/MC

Notes: I could probably repeat what I wrote about Fitz last week, but despite his shorter distance, he plays long courses very well, he’s an elite Bermuda putter, and in the last 2 weeks has gained over 5 strokes T2G in both starts, gained nearly 2 strokes on APP in each, and the putter is working well… if the conditions do in fact get horrendous on the weekend, he becomes even more live to win

Fades

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 41^st SG: APP/10^th BoB,Opps/1^st SG: OTT/41^st SG: P/14^th SG: T2G/2^nd SG: Par 5s

Form: 22^nd/MC/18^th/7^th

Course History: 4^th/46^th/2^nd

Notes: I’ll keep fading Bryson despite that insane comeback he had last week where he shot the course record on Friday after a terrible start as he’s now lost strokes on APP in 3 straight starts, he’s lost SG: ARG and SG: P in 2 of his last 3, and more than anything, I much prefer Rory for $500 more or dropping down to Hovland/Reed/Hatton for even less money

2) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 91^st SG: APP/67^th BoB,Opps/74^th SG: OTT/75^th SG: P/65^th SG: T2G/56^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 44^th/26^th/17^th/7^th/10^th

Course History: MC/3^rd/26^th/10^th

Notes: I’m not really sure what’s happened to Fleetwood, but he just continues to struggle week in and week out… he has gained T2G and on APP in his last 2 US tournaments (last week and the RSM in November), but the putter is still bad, as he lost over 6 strokes putting at WGC and since the Arnold Palmer last year, he only has 1 T20 finish on the PGA TOUR (the 2020 Masters)

Favorite Pivot

1) Patrick Reed ($10,200) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 39^th SG: APP/9^th BoB,Opps/30^th SG: OTT/1^st SG: P/19^th SG: T2G/17^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 9^th/66^th/1^st/MC/21^st/3^rd

Course History: 15^th/50^th/7^th/52^nd/MC

Notes: I think Rory/Hovland should soak up nearly all the ownership for the above 10k guys and Reed, per usual, should be relatively low owned since everyone hates him; quietly, Reed gained over 5 strokes on APP last week, gained 5.7 strokes T2G and finished T9 in his first start on TOUR since winning Farmers; he makes a ton of birdies, he avoids the big numbers, and is very live to win again

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Sam Burns ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 20^th SG: APP/2^nd BoB,Opps/39^th SG: OTT/2^nd SG: P/28^th SG: T2G/4^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 3^rd/39^th/22^nd/18^th/MC

Course History: 36^th/54^th/49^th

Notes: Course history isn’t incredible, but he’s on a different level in his career right now, is a known Bermuda specialist, and has gained on APP in 3 straight tournaments, has 3 T25s with a T3 in 3 of his last 4 starts; should be very chalky so love him as a cash game play but if ownership creeps too high, I can see the merit to fading in GPPs

2) Cameron Tringale ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 10^th SG: APP/3^rd BoB,Opps/52^nd SG: OTT/25^th SG: P/12^th SG: T2G/3^rd SG: Par 5s

Form: 26^th/7^th/17^th/18^th/56^th

Course History: 27^th/56^th/27^th/MC (note: he last played here in 2016)

Notes: Tringale continues to be so solid, as he’s now gained T2G and on APP in 7 straight tournaments, has made all the cuts during that run, and when the putter is working, he’s finishing T20 or better at a very high clip… I love his form, I love his stats, and despite the course history not spectacular, he was a very different player the last time he teed it up at Bay Hill in 2016

3) Chris Kirk ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 35^th SG: APP/18^th BoB,Opps/50^th SG: OTT/43^rd SG: P/17^th SG: T2G/26^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 16^th/MC/16^th/2^nd

Course History: 15^th/13^th/MC/12^th/MC/60^th/16^th/MC

Notes: Burned me the last time I had him as a core play, but Kirk has 4 finishes of T20 or better in his last 7 starts at Bay Hill, he’s gained on APP in 3 of his last 4 starts, and has made the last 7 of 8 cuts; quietly scores well on Par 5s, is ball striking better than he has in a long time, and if he can keep it in play off the tee, I love him as a sneaky longshot outright and great candidate to smash value

Fades

1) Francesco Molinari ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 24^th SG: APP/57^th BoB,Opps/80^th SG: OTT/60^th SG: P/30^th SG: T2G/103^rd SG: Par 5s

Form: 8^th/59^th/10^th/8^th

Course History: 1^st/26^th/7^th/9^th/17^th/5^th/34^th

Notes: I will note that clearly Molinari is playing some strong golf right now with 3 T10 or better finishes in his last 4 starts, he has very strong course history with a win 2 years ago, but I don’t love his ownership and I still don’t consider him completely “safe” which is more what I’m looking for at this price point… if his ownership sticks around 17-20%, I’m fine pivoting to players around him

2) Marc Leishman ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 22^nd SG: APP/51^st BoB,Opps/116^th SG: OTT/28^th SG: P/91^st SG: T2G/20^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 39^th/32^nd/18^th/4^th/24^th

Course History: 2^nd/23^rd/7^th/1^st/17^th/MC/31^st/MC/48^th/3^rd

Notes: Similar to Molinari, clearly has an affinity for this course, and courses in Florida in general, but his OTT game is truly worrisome as he lost 5 strokes OTT last week, has lost strokes off the tee in 4 of his last 5 tournaments, and last week gained nearly all his strokes putting while losing over 1 on APP and 5.5 strokes T2G… Leish doesn’t seem to be back to his consistency just yet and I think will get more popular than we think with his course history and a recent T5 finish

Favorite Pivot

1) Matt Jones ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Key Stats: 70^th SG: APP/37^th BoB,Opps/36^th SG: OTT/7^th SG: P/55^th SG: T2G/15^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 8^th/34^th/30^th/48^th/21^st/11^th

Course History: 47^th/MC/3^rd/14^th/50^th

Notes: Always risky to trust Matt Jones but I like his stats a ton, he plays well if the wind gets brutal, and is back on what is by far his best putting surface in Bermuda; finished T8 at Genesis despite losing strokes on APP, but before that had gained in the last 5 tournaments on Approach, has gained T2G in 6 of his last 7 tournaments, and despite not incredible course history, does have a T3 and has been ultra-consistent as he’s made 10 cuts in a row

OTHERS I LIKE: Jason Kokrak/Lanto Griffin/Corey Conners/Luke List/Henrik Norlander/Wyndham Clark

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Matthew NeSmith ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Quick Hits: Unfortunately could be a chalkier sub 7k player, but I love his game as he’s made 4 straight cuts with the last 3 all T20s or better, he’s gained on APP and T2G in 4 straight tournaments, and per his stats, ranks 4^th in the field in T2G, 6^th in SG: APP, 27^th in SG: OTT, 25^th BoB/Opps. Gained, and 8^th in SG: Par 5s

2) Brendan Steele ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: I think Steele used to be more of a DFS darling but now he is never owned, and his game hasn’t changed/has probably improved; always weak with the putter, Steele ranks 27^th in the field in SG: T2G, 12^th in SG: OTT; he’s played Bay Hill 8 times with 2 T20s and per his recent form, he’s made 5 straight cuts with a T4 and a T21 in that span

3) Patrick Rodgers ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: I love targeting Rodgers on Bermuda greens and his course history is quite strong for a sub 7k player with 5 total starts at Bay Hill that includes 4/5 made cuts with 2 T25s and a T7 in that span; his T2G game hasn’t been superb, but he ranks 39^th in BoB, 40^th in SG: P on Bermuda, and 21^st in SG: Par 5s

4) Peter Malnati ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: I mentioned on the podcast that it’s funny that Malnati was chalk earlier this season at 8k or above and now at 6500 no one will own him… still a lot of risk, but he does rank 53^rd T2G, 42^nd SG: APP, 6^th in BoB/Opps Gained, 8^th in SG: P on Bermuda, and 32^nd in SG: Par 5s

5) Kyle Stanley ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: I feel like Stanley is having a fine enough year and while his last several starts aren’t record-breaking, he has made 5 straight cuts with 1 T20 and a 6500, that’s all we’re looking for… his last start at Bay Hill in 2019 was a MC but before that he had 3 T17 or better finishes in 4 starts before that and ranks 29^th in the field in SG: T2G, 17^th in SG: APP, 36^th in SG: OTT and if he just doesn’t implode putting…

Cash Game Options

1) Rory McIlroy               

2) Viktor Hovland

3) Tyrrell Hatton

4) Matthew Fitzpatrick

5) Paul Casey

6) Sam Burns

7) Cameron Tringale

8) Lanto Griffin

9) Corey Conners

10) Luke List

11) Chris Kirk

12) Matthew NeSmith

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 15% Course History

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Matthew Fitzpatrick
3. Tyrrell Hatton
4. Patrick Reed
5. Viktor Hovland
6. Bryson DeChambeau
7. Max Homa
8. Billy Horschel
9. Sam Burns
10. Paul Casey
11. Sungjae Im
12. Jason Kokrak
13. Louis Oosthuizen
14. Kevin Na
15. Francesco Molinari
16. Cameron Tringale
17. Will Zalatoris
18. Marc Leishman
19. Matt Jones
20. Jordan Spieth

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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