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Course: Sedgefield CC

Fast Facts

• Par 70 approx. 7127 yards; Donald Ross design
• Bermuda Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 6500 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Easy to hit fairways and higher GIR rate than TOUR average (71% here compared to 65% AVG)
• 48 bunkers, 13 water hazards
• Birdie fest with non-penal rough and easy ARG game
• Average winning score around -20 with average cut around -2 to -3
• Corollary Courses: East Lake (TOUR Championship), PGA National (Honda Classic), Sea Island Resort (RSM Classic), TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude/WGC), Waialae CC (Sony Open)
• Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Chez Reavie, Sergio Garcia, Charles Howell III, Brooks Koepka, Kevin Kisner, Tommy Fleetwood, Billy Horschel

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 9-7; DK 6-10

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: Normally you can brag about a 6/6 through the cut in any tourney but with the PGA being Top 70 and ties instead of Top 65, around 25-30% did it and I’m just glad to be part of the crowd… Cantlay was the only weak spot in my cash as I felt it was pretty easy to play an underpriced Morikawa, an underpriced Dustin Johnson, a value play in English and then build around it… I got lucky in that I punted with Henley at 6600 since I really liked the other 5 (that I rounded out with Tiger) and I was surprised to see Morikawa so low owned (granted he was around 40%) because he was just too cheap for his talent level… feels good to be on a “streak” in which I have hit cash games 2 weeks in a row… LOL

GPP: Finally, my main roster came through with DJ on it! If Spieth hadn’t had such a bad Saturday it really could have done some damage as I played some of my favorite cash targets on there, Tiger/DJ/Morikawa and then rounded it out with Spieth, Palmer, and Jason Day… Day was my pick to win and a few more putts on Sunday and he definitely could have done it while Palmer was my favorite value play of the week; Palmer had a terrific Sunday which helped him to hit value while Spieth and Tiger were kind of the “duds” of the lineup… I cashed in all tournaments but a cold Tiger putter and Spieth still not being able to hit a fairway kind of hindered any chance of massive winnings… I knew DJ would work out eventually, Day had been playing extremely well and Tiger… well I’m a homer so obviously I had to play him on my main team! Onto Webb’s place!

Course and Weather Notes: This is one of my very favorite courses on TOUR and a rare one that I don’t mind it being a birdie fest as (sorry I’m a loser) but Donald Ross is my favorite course designer and my favorite courses to play and watch the pros play; Par 70, short, rough that isn’t thick, fairways easy to hit, and greens easy to hit means you have to lock in those mid-range irons/wedges from 125-175 and putt your ass off… seems simple? This course basically runs through Webb as you’ll hear all week that he lives here, named is daughter Wyndham and looking at his track record he’s done OK here I’d say with the following being his course history: 2^nd/2^nd/3^rd/72^nd/6^th/5^th/11^th/22^nd/1^st/8^th… whoa; I don’t see much of any problematic weather as of this writing (Tuesday morning) but always check back as late as possible on Wednesday for any potential weather advantage… the last thing I’ll say is that although it’s mostly a narrative, with this being the last week for guys to qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs (starts next week), maybe take some shots on guys who need to play well, i.e. Sergio or Charl but don’t let it drive the process but rather use it as a tiebreaker.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 (7 of them here)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

Disclaimer for this week: I will be playing Webb, possibly even in cash despite the price tag, and although he’s an elite talent, I completely understand a strategic fade as I expect him to be 30+% owned and he needs to finish Top 3 most likely… not saying to fade or anything but he’s not worth writing up as everyone knows how elite of a player he is and how good his course history is!

 

9K and Above (that is not Webb Simpson):

Plays

1) Justin Rose ($9,900) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 55^th T2G/79^th SG: APP/16^th BoB/112^th SG: P/8^th Opps. Gained/128^th P4s 400-450

Form: 9^th/MC/MC/MC/14^th/3^rd

History: None

Notes: Looking at those stats it doesn’t look very good but Rose definitely looked more like himself last week… he quietly finished 9^th (you wouldn’t know because CBS barely showed him on Sunday), gained over 4 strokes on APP and putted very well… this course sets up for him per corollary courses, he can go super low with birdies and shouldn’t be nearly as high owned as Webb/Casey/English, etc.

2) Harris English ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 24%

Key Stats: 13^th SG: T2G/31^st SG: APP/18^th BoB/6^th SG: P/107^th Opps. Gained/90^th P4s 400-450

Form: 19^th/18^th/13^th/17^th/MC

History: 39^th/11^th/50^th/46^th/31^st/10^th

Notes: I didn’t think English would be insane chalk but that unfortunately will be the case… his form is excellent with 4 straight Top 20s and he has made 6 straight cuts here at Sedgefield… he’s putting on his best surface and makes more birdies than people think…

Fades

1) Brooks Koepka ($11,400) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 6^th SG: T2G/3^rd SG: APP/4^th BoB/53^rd SG: P/6^th Opps. Gained/2^nd P4s 400-450

Form: 29^th/2^nd/MC/62^nd/MC/7^th/32^nd

History: 6^th/38^th (back in 2015 and 2014)

Notes: Well I fade him most weeks and this is no different… he’ll probably come out and win by 10 since most are fading him but at this price and after a shocking let down last Sunday (which was great to see after his arrogant comments Saturday night), I would rather save money in the 9 and 10k range

2) Paul Casey ($10,300) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 4^th SG: T2G/1^st SG: APP/75^th BoB/135^th SG: P/10^th Opps. Gained/5^th P4s 400-450

Form: 2^nd/67^th/MC/MC/32^nd

History: 13^th/3^rd/18^th/MC/75^th/47^th

Notes: Casey looked very solid last week in total troll form after screwing people the 3 weeks prior but now has skyrocketed in price, will be popular, and this just seems like a spot to jump off despite his strong APP stats… maybe he trolls again but I would rather pivot elsewhere to guys who have been much more consistent since the restart

Favorite Pivot

1) Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 57^th SG: T2G/114^th SG: APP/54^th BoB/70^th SG: P/106^th Opps. Gained/24^th P4s 400-450

Form: 29^th/35^th/MC

History: None

Notes: Stats look like trash and irons haven’t been sharp… he had a decent first 3 days at the PGA before a bad Sunday but I’m going to bet on his long term form and his ability to get hot and make a ton of birdies… this is a rare week, similar to with Rickie sometimes, where I don’t think Fleetwood will be insane chalk and I want to take advantage of that in GPPs…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Sergio Garcia ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 8^th SG: T2G/118^th SG: APP/26^th BoB/79^th SG: P/52^nd Opps. Gained/120^th P4s 400-450

Form: MC/35^th/32^nd/32^nd/5^th/MC

History: 24^th/29^th/1^st (won in 2012)

Notes: Former winner here and I hope people fade after his MC last week… Bermuda is the only surface he gains strokes putting historically and despite his APP a little off and losing strokes putting each week (that’s normal), he’s playing here to get points to qualify so he should be pretty motivated

2) Kevin Kisner ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 89^th SG: T2G/62^nd SG: APP/9^th BoB/8^th SG: P/104^th Opps. Gained/55^th P4s 400-450

Form: 19^th/25^th/MC/3^rd/MC/MC/29^th

History: 42^nd/10^th/8^th/46^th/59^th

Notes: Very quiet T20 last week at the PGA where he gained nearly 5 strokes on APP and over 5 strokes putting… Kis isn’t the type where he hits everything to 5 feet and wins that way but rather hits greens and gets insanely hot with the putter and this course fits that type of player… he’s won at RSM, has finished well at the Sony, and he has a solid chance to win this week I think

3) Russell Henley ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 1^st SG: T2G/2^nd SG: APP/59^th BoB/81^st SG: P/1^st Opps. Gained/19^th P4s 400-450

Form: 37^th/51^st/MC/7^th/32^nd/MC

History: 31^st/MC/46^th

Notes: Man look at those stats… believe it or not, Henley used to be a great putter and is on his best surface by far in Bermuda… in his last 4 starts he’s gained 8.2, 6, 1.6, and 7.1 on APP while losing over 3 strokes putting in each of those… he putts average and he’s live to win and I love the price we get here

Fades

1) Brendon Todd ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 44^th SG: T2G/73^rd SG: APP/22^nd BoB/5^th SG: P/30^th Opps. Gained/88^th P4s 400-450

Form: 17^th/15^th/22^nd/57^th/11^th/MC/MC

History: MC/MC/26^th/MC

Notes: Todd has definitely been playing well but he’s now higher priced than Sergio, Kisner, Sungjae, and right under Spieth… this seems like an intense price hike for a guy who has been consistent but hasn’t done much except lead after R1 and make every putt… if that putter goes cold I think he goes downhill very, very fast…

2) Ryan Moore ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 22^nd SG: T2G/5^th SG: APP/25^th BoB/132^nd SG: P/16^th Opps. Gained/15^th P4s 400-450

Form: 12^th/12^th/40^th/MC/MC/MC

History: 6^th/24^th/53^rd/10^th/37^th/MC

Notes: As someone who has played Ryan Moore almost every week to little success this sets up for a fade by me and a win by him but he’s about to be very chalky and that worries me… stats are solid and he’s found some recent form but his putting has been atrocious and chalk like this reminds me of when Lucas Glover is chalk… doesn’t work out

Favorite Pivot

1) Dylan Frittelli ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: T2G/16^th SG: APP/1^st BoB/30^th SG: P/20^th Opps. Gained/70^th P4s 400-450

Form: 33^rd/18^th/22^nd/MC/MC/8^th/MC

History: MC

Notes: People know Frittelli but he’s definitely not popular and he’s my favorite GPP pivot of the week… 1^st in T2G, 1^st in BoB and we’ve seen him get scorching hot as he did in the 2^nd tournament of the restart; he’s not the greatest putter but has gained strokes T2G and APP in his last 4 tournaments

BONUS PIVOT: Rory Sabbatini ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Notes: Stats aren’t tremendous but has a 6^th/4^th in 2 of his last 3 starts here and has 3 T21 finishes or better since the restart

OTHERS I LIKE: Joaquin Niemann/Christiaan Bezuidenhout/Lucas Glover/Henrik Norlander/Sam Burns/Luke List/Brian Harman/Jhonattan Vegas/Cameron Davis

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Adam Long ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Can get insanely hot with the putter and his irons… 35^th in T2G, 26^th in SG: APP, 30^th in BoB, and 28^th in SG: P… under 7k value

2) Ryan Armour ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: I’m such a sucker for Armour but he’s very accurate off the tee, ranks 29^th in T2G, 47^th in BoB, and his last 3 starts here have yielded a 22^nd/8^th/4^th

3) Sam Ryder ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Ryder torched me at the 3M but he ranks 22^nd in APP, 12^th in BoB, and his now cheaper than the 3M and will be owned by almost no one

4) Brice Garnett ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: 20^th in T2G, 20^th in APP, 22^nd in P4s 400-450, 25^th in Putting on Bermuda… last 3 starts at Sedgefield are 6^th/20^th/20^th

5) Patton Kizzire ($6,200) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Super punt and form is not really there but he has finished 13^th and 24^th in his last 2 starts here; ranks 52^nd in T2G, 26^th on P4s 400-450, 28^th in Opps Gained, and 2^nd in Putting on Bermuda

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson

2) Justin Rose

3) Harris English

4) Sergio Garcia

5) Kevin Kisner

6) Russell Henley

7) Rory Sabbatini

8) Lucas Glover

9) Sam Burns

10) Brian Harman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% Course History, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Brooks Koepka
2. Patrick Reed
3. Webb Simpson
4. Paul Casey
5. Billy Horschel
6. Harris English
7. Joaquin Niemann
8. Kevin Kisner
9. Sergio Garcia
10. Shane Lowry
11. Si Woo Kim
12. Jordan Spieth
13. Brendon Todd
14. Lucas Glover
15. Dylan Frittelli
16. Chez Reavie
17. Ryan Armour
18. Tom Lewis
19. Justin Rose
20. Ryan Moore

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Webb Simpson

Paul Casey

Patrick Reed

Kevin Kisner

Harris English

OAD Pivots

Sungjae Im

Tommy Fleetwood

Shane Lowry

Joaquin Niemann

Corey Conners

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