Sam’s Teeing Off – 2020 Workday Charity Open DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: Muirfield Village

Fast Facts

• Par 72 approx. 7450 yards
• Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)
• First of 2 back to back events here with this week’s version featuring a few longer holes, shorter rough, slower greens, and a drivable 14^th hole on the weekend
• Field: 157 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Average Cut (Memorial Tournament): +2
• Average Winning Score (Memorial Tournament): -14
• Corollary Courses: Augusta National, Bay Hill, Glen Abbey, TPC Boston
• Course Fit Targets: Rickie Fowler, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Byeong Hun An, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 7-5; DK 3-9

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: Shorter recap this week as due to vacation I’m getting this out a day late. Cash continued to be my kryptonite as I once again fell for the Brian Harman trap in which he putted horrific, again, to miss the cut. Sabbatini ended up being chalk and my biggest regret of the week as I liked him but I should have known that at his elevated price, and chalky, it was doomed to fail… I was shocked to see how owned Bryson was in cash as it wasn’t a bad play by any means, but I just don’t normally pay up to that in cash since it hinders the rest of the lineup.

GPP: I ended up breaking even in GPPs and it could have been much better had my main/best lineup with Bryson/Hideki/Burns not also had… Kevin Na, who of course WD. That one isn’t even shocking since Na has done that at an abnormally high rate. In GPPs in general, Sneds once again just with a disastrous putting week in which he missed 3 or 4 putts inside 5 feet on his front nine on Thursday and then in the midst of fighting back on Friday 3 jacked or maybe even 4 jacked on a par 5 to miss the cut. Cam Davis broke my heart as yes he was a 6.5k punt but all he needed to do was get up and down on his last hole of Friday to make the cut and I probably would have cashed easily with a 4/6… was not to be. Further, EVR imploded on Thursday to take himself out of it combined with Finau making an 18 foot putt on Friday to get IN the cut and we can chalk last week up to frustrating but so it goes… onto Muirfield week 1!

Course and Weather Notes: In what I believe is a first, or at least the first time in 50+ years, Muirfield Village, Jack’s masterpiece, will be played back to back both this week and then the traditional Memorial Tournament next week. Allegedly, and most have probably seen this talked about everywhere, this week will have shorter rough than usual, slower greens, some lengthened holes, and what I presume are some different and easier pin locations. My only disagreement with the course conditions is that since it is so hot and humid in the Midwest and the greens are so undulated, the green speeds will end up being pretty fast and I think there is an edge to guys who putt well on faster greens. You have to score on these Par 5s, distance is overshadowed by the need to stay out of the rough, and being accurate from the 150+ range with your approaches. For secondary stats, I think looking at guys who score well on Par 4s from 450-500, have solid bunker play (73 bunkers here), and can scramble well will have the edge and ability to go low here.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150+ yards)
• BoB Gained
• Scrambling
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 Yards

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($11,100) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 15^th SG: BS/16^th SG: APP/26^th BoB/48^th Scrambling/44^th Opps. Gained/31^st SG: Par 4s

Form: MC/8^th/10^th

History: MC/8^th/4^th/MC/MC/37^th

Notes: I always say people are too sharp but it’s weeks like this I wish they weren’t because the last time JT missed 2 cuts in a row was over 2 years ago… and after his last 5 cuts his finishes have been 1^st/20^th/36^th/3^rd/6^th… still the best iron player on TOUR and has experience here… love him

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 6^th SG: BS/4^th SG: APP/17^th BoB/131^st Scrambling/15^th Opps. Gained/66^th SG: Par 4s

Form: 21^st/MC

History: 6^th/13^th/45^th/MC/5^th/1^st

Notes: Got back to the Hideki I know and love last week as he gained 5 strokes on APP, 7.4 T2G and lost 2.3 putting for a T21 finish… very solid; always elite in BS and has great history here, I think he may win the tournament (if not JT) and I love him in all formats

Fades

1) Jon Rahm ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 38^th SG: BS/74^th SG: APP/35^th BoB/3^rd Scrambling/38^th Opps. Gained/8^th SG: Par 4s

Form: 37^th/33^rd/MC

History: MC

Notes: I ultimately think Rahm ends up more popular than I project since there is, albeit small, a discount from JT; Rahm is so elite and has the ability to win at every time but he hasn’t look put together since the break as he lost over 4 strokes putting his first tourney back, then lost around the green with minimal strokes gained on APP, and then at Travelers he lost 4.3 strokes on APP while saving himself with scrambling/putting… doesn’t scream consistent so I’ll pivot elsewhere

2) Brooks Koepka ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 34^th SG: BS/108^th SG: APP/7^th BoB/96^th Scrambling/66^th Opps. Gained/72^nd SG: Par 4s

Form: 7^th/32^nd

History: 31^st/52^nd

Notes: Lol… we know how this goes; Brooks will probably storm the field and win but his stats really aren’t that impressive and I think he’s a little bit overvalued on both DK and the betting markets; he’s lost strokes on APP in both tournaments since the resumption of the TOUR and has gained a ton of strokes putting and OTT so like Rahm, Brooks can win anywhere, but I’ll look elsewhere

Favorite Pivot

1) Rickie Fowler ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 25^th SG: BS/26^th SG: APP/64^th BoB/99^th Scrambling/26^th Opps. Gained/90^th SG: Par 4s

Form: 12^th/MC/MC

History: 14^th/8^th/2^nd/MC/MC/MC/37^th/52^nd/22^nd/2^nd

Notes: Finally Rickie looked very solid last week with a decent finish and some great iron play; he’s played here a ton, has some high finishes, and definitely can start to score if he keeps his putter rolling; Rickie ranks #1 for me in SG: Total on corollary courses as he’s played very well here, Bay Hill, Augusta, and has won at TPC Boston and I think this price is pretty cheap…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Gary Woodland ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 87^th SG: BS/20^th SG: APP/10^th BoB/86^th Scrambling/35^th Opps. Gained/46^th SG: Par 4s

Form: MC/62^nd/9^th

History: 52^nd/23^rd/49^th/4^th/MC/57^th/16^th/MC/6^th

Notes: God I’m such a Woodland truther and it continues to burn me… so I’ll go right back; overall, his SG: BS looks terrible but with limited data since the restart, this is mainly because Gary seems to have 1-2 holes per round where he just blows up and makes a double or triple that just takes him out of everything… he excels on tighter fairway courses and has gained on APP in every tournament in 2020 except the Travelers

2) Byeong Hun An ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 67^th SG: BS/63^rd SG: APP/125^th BoB/41^st Scrambling/144^th Opps. Gained/11^th SG: Par 4s

Form: 46^th/MC/60^th

History: 17^th/2^nd/25^th/11^th

Notes: Well here’s someone I never play… since the restart An’s ball striking has looked… not good; his putting, per usual, not good; but, I will rely on his great finishes here over the years as he’s never finished worse than 25^th and bank more on long term Approach play over recent play; he could end up getting buzz but I ultimately don’t think he’ll go over 15% even at a sub 8k price tag

3) Joel Dahmen ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 5^th SG: BS/11^th SG: APP/21^st BoB/49^th Scrambling/2^nd Opps. Gained/16^th SG: Par 4s

Form: 20^th/48^th/19^th

History: 68^th

Notes: He’s finally getting popular but I just can’t see a reason to pivot from Dahmen with how well he’s been playing; he’s gained over 2 strokes on APP in each tournament back, over 2 strokes T2G in each tournament, and has placed in the Top 20 in 2/3; he has the potential for things to go bad especially if putting poorly, but his price is very fair again and I think he’s a fantastic cash and GPP option
Fades

1) Cameron Champ ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 9^th SG: BS/53^rd SG: APP/4^th BoB/141^st Scrambling/80^th Opps. Gained/64^th SG: Par 4s

Form: 12^th/14^th

History: MC

Notes: Always interesting to me when a guy has 1 solid finish (i.e. Stanley from 2 weeks ago) and then people jump on; Champ gains most of his strokes OTT, which is mitigated here, is a terrible scrambler and in general isn’t a very good putter… I think he’s an easy pivot/fade at his projected ownership despite his 2 decent finishes since the restart

2) Russell Henley ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 4^th SG: BS/9^th SG: APP/32^nd BoB/111^th Scrambling/9^th Opps. Gained/102^nd SG: Par 4s

Form: 32^nd/MC

History: 29^th/33^rd/MC/MC/6^th

Notes: Relying solely on stats in any week, or in general, can get you in a lot of trouble and it’s something I’ve fallen for a ton… maybe I’m wrong and Henley wins this week, but his approach game stats look awesome, but you look at his form, his history, and actually watching how bad of a putter and scrambler he is and I don’t have a ton of interest especially with him gaining buzz… I’ll pivot elsewhere

Favorite Pivot

1) Bud Cauley ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 45^th SG: BS/17^th SG: APP/138^th BoB/4^th Scrambling/29^th Opps. Gained/1^st SG: Par 4s

Form: WD/MC/29^th

History: 9^th/MC/25^th/38^th/34^th/52^nd

Notes: Was forced to WD due to COVID precautions, which I respect, but I like to see Bud’s decent history here, including a Top 10 in 2019, and his ability to scramble well; the only concern with him is that he doesn’t rack up a TON of birdies, which can hinder his ceiling a little bit; I think he’s a fine piece to play in GPPs as someone with a higher floor and is pretty consistent when he gets it going

OTHERS I LIKE: Patrick Reed/Adam Hadwin/Matt Kuchar/ in ALL FORMATS
GPP ONLY/FLIERS: Scott Stallings/Kevin Streelman/Billy Horschel/Maverick McNealy

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Matthew NeSmith ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Was uber popular a few weeks ago then people stopped caring about him; ranks 16^th in the field in SG: BS/2^nd in SG: APP; has gained on APP in his last 6 tournaments and best putting surface is Bent

2) Adam Long ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Extremely volatile and someone I use only as a GPP flier if making multiple lineups; ranks 1^st in Scrambling/15^th on Par 4s 450-500, 28^th in SG: APP, and 39^th in SG: BS… worth a shot IMO

3) Henrik Norlander ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: Going to hilariously be chalky but I honestly don’t mind him in a LU where you have 1-2 guys at sub 5% ownership; Norlander led the field in T2G last week, ranks 10^th here in SG: BS, 24^th on Par 4s 450-500, and 33^rd in SG: APP… the only issue is he sucks at putting

Cash Game Options

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Hideki Matsuyama

3) Justin Rose

4) Collin Morikawa

5) Matt Kuchar

6) Gary Woodland

7) Adam Hadwin

8) Joel Dahmen

9) Bud Cauley

10) Max Homa

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 10% Course History, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 10% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Justin Thomas
2. Justin Rose
3. Joaquin Niemann
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Viktor Hovland
6. Adam Hadwin
7. Joel Dahmen
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Kevin Streelman
10. Bubba Watson
11. Patrick Reed
12. Hideki Matsuyama
13. Gary Woodland
14. Harold Varner III
15. Scott Stallings
16. Jordan Spieth
17. Jason Kokrak
18. Brooks Koepka
19. Collin Morikawa
20. Corey Conners

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Patrick Cantlay

Justin Rose

Hideki Matsuyama

Marc Leishman

Adam Hadwin

OAD Pivots

Bubba Watson

Patrick Reed

Billy Horschel

Byeong Hun An

Corey Conners

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