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Course: TPC Southwind

Fast Facts

• Par 70 approx. 7250 yards
• Bermuda Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 4300 sq. ft. greens on average (SMALL)
• Field: 78 players; No Cut
• Narrow Zoysia fairways
• Water on 10 holes with a TON of water balls on Holes 12 and 18
• 2019 Winning Score (first year as a WGC no cut event): -13 by Brooks Koepka
• Corollary Courses: TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield, PGA National, East Lake, TPC Scottsdale
• Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Byeong Hun An, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson, Xander Schaufflele, Paul Casey

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 8-7; DK 5-10

GPP Results – FanDuel won’t let me load contest history (classic FanDuel) so I don’t have the chart but rest assured… I LOST

Cash: Maybe instead of making my model ranks and seeing Finau ranked FIRST and Wolff ranked FOURTH and then fading both, especially in cash, I should listen to the computer who isn’t a complete dunce and maybe I would have cashed… I said Finau would need to come Top 3 to pay off that price, as he promptly came T3 exactly LOL. Paul Casey torched everyone… again, my conviction Sam Ryder play did not work out, Lucas Glover chalk week went exactly how we should all expect it to, and Chase Seiffert lost strokes on APP in the first week I’ve ever played him. That is how my cash week went. I did get Richy Werenski right though in both cash and Top 10 bet so we got that going for us, which is nice.

GPP: I have played DJ in my main lineup the last 2 tournaments in which he has shot 80, 80, and then 78 followed by a WD. Third time’s the charm this week? It was almost comical in that my main lineup, on Thursday mind you, I had 4 triples and 5+ balls in the water… that is how the week went for me as I continue to light money on fire and pay DK’s rake. In all seriousness though, what a weird week in that the 6/6 % was the lowest I’ve ever seen (2% or so) and the 5/6 % was only 10%! If I had played a lineup with all my favorite lower tier/punts I prob would have raked it in as Garnett, Schenk, and Cam Davis all played well while the guys you would expect to fail… failed: Casey/DJ/Redman… ha. Onto a no cut event this week and what should be a lighter and GPP only week for me.

Course and Weather Notes: Now in its 2^nd year of a WGC event, TPC Southwind has historically been one of the tougher courses on TOUR with very small greens (4300 sq. ft. on average) and fairways that are pretty narrow; however, it is not a new course in the rotation by any means as it hosted the St. Jude Classic for decades before as an event with a cut that has seen elite winners with Berger winning back to back in 2016/2017 followed by a runaway DJ win and Brooks last year in the WGC debut. Approach game remains paramount as always, but I think it’s key to look at scrambling and bogey avoidance this week as yes you have to make birdies but getting a hot putter and saving par is almost as important as big numbers loom with over 5000 water balls on this course over the last 10 years or so and only 2 Par 5s compared to the normal 3-4 we’ve seen the last several weeks.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
• BoB Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: OTT
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,200) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 13^th SG: T2G/30^th SG: APP/1^st BoB/50^th Bogey Avoidance/5^th SG: OTT/33^rd GIRs/36^th SG: P

Form: 32^nd/11^th/41^st/32^nd

History: 4^th/7^th/29^th

Notes: Rory is going to win one of his next few events and I think it might be this one (or it’s the next guy on my “plays” list); Rory seems to “struggle” on Sundays but really he just doesn’t catch the fire of his first few days but if he can get out to several under on Thursday/Friday, I don’t think he gives up the lead… he’s elite in every category and if he can putt about average (Bermuda is his best surface) then he can storm this elite field

2) Justin Thomas ($10,700) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: T2G/5^th SG: APP/6^th BoB/3^rd Bogey Avoidance/12^th SG: OTT/20^th GIRs/16^th SG: P

Form: 18^th/2^nd/MC/8^th/10^th

History: 12^th

Notes: I’m really taking a bold stance by taking 2 of probably the top 3 players in the world but with JT’s ability to go uber low in a round or two each tourney and no cut, I think this discount from Bryson/Rory/Rahm is too good to pass up; ranks #1 in my stats, 3^rd in recent form, and if he makes a few more putts, he’s right up there with Rory this week

Fades

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 12^th SG: T2G/58^th SG: APP/19^th BoB/13^th Bogey Avoidance/1^st SG: OTT/10^th GIRs/22^nd SG: P

Form: MC/1^st/6^th/8^th/3^rd

History: 48^th/MC/45^th

Notes: Can Bryson win this event? Absolutely. Am I fading because of the 10 he made last tourney? No. First, I can’t play everyone up here, second, I prefer the likes of JT/Rory/Webb, etc. but most importantly I still don’t think Bryson has locked in his iron game with all his newfound strength… so elite off the tee and a great putter but at that price, I want more consistency on SG: APP

2) Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 32^nd SG: T2G/37^th SG: APP/59^th BoB/2^nd Bogey Avoidance/20^th SG: OTT/5^th GIRs/2^nd SG: P

Form: 3^rd/27^th/MC/14^th/32^nd

History: 4^th

Notes: Made a run at Memorial to finish T3 and last year at this event finished T4 but I think this is wayyyyy too expensive for someone who doesn’t rack up a ton of birdies… he saves par well, is a very good Bermuda putter, but I would much rather play Brooks/Finau/DJ/Hovland/Reed/Hideki/Fleetwood and really anyone else at this price over Fitz

Favorite Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 44^th SG: T2G/38^th SG: APP/58^th BoB/49^th Bogey Avoidance/8^th SG: OTT/45^th GIRs/14^th SG: P

Form: WD/MC/1^st/17^th/MC

History: 20^th/1^st/5^th/WD/24^th/10^th/1^st

Notes: Oh man… we doin this again? Not sure I can commit to DJ torching my main lineup this week but he’s about to be owned by NO ONE and I’m pretty certain the WD wasn’t as much as “back” injury as much as it was a “I sucked ass in R1 and can’t win so let’s get an early start to Memphis” mentality… he’s looked like garbage; however, he did WIN a few weeks ago and we know the long term talent is there… he has won twice here…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Patrick Reed ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 21^st SG: T2G/52^nd SG: APP/11^th BoB/10^th Bogey Avoidance/7^th SG: OTT/27^th GIRs/15^th SG: P

Form: 10^th/39^th/MC/24^th/MC/7^th

History: 12^th/MC/5^th/MC/MC

Notes: Oh yeah… tourney with small greens where you have to be lights out with the putter and save par, that just screams Patrick Reed… it’s annoying that people aren’t auto fading him anymore so he’ll have ownership but he’s sub 9k, finished 12^th here last year, and I believe he won the last WGC event…

2) Sergio Garcia ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 10^th SG: T2G/23^rd SG: APP/44^th BoB/37^th Bogey Avoidance/25^th SG: OTT/37^th GIRs/30^th SG: P

Form: 32^nd/32^nd/5^th/MC

History: 40^th

Notes: Sergio has played 4 events since the restart and gained over 4 strokes T2G in every one, has gained on SG: OTT in every one, has gained around the green in every one, and not surprisingly, has lost 2 or more strokes putting in every one… Bermuda is his best surface so I’m HOPINIG he can putt maybe average here and continue his elite ball striking… really like how he sets up in DFS and betting this week

3) Bubba Watson ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 39^th SG: T2G/22^nd SG: APP/50^th BoB/55^th Bogey Avoidance/64^th SG: OTT/9^th GIRs/20^th SG: P

Form: MC/32^nd/MC/MC/MC/52^nd/7^th

History: 9^th

Notes: Never a huge Bubba guy and his stats and recent form are… let’s say lacking? However, he did finish 9^th here last year and after 3 missed cuts, he has gained on APP, OTT, and T2G in his last 2 events but the putter has been beyond ice cold… at only 7100, we don’t need him to win but he makes for an interesting leverage play if betting on long term talent
Fades

1) Gary Woodland ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 28^th SG: T2G/17^th SG: APP/49^th BoB/28^th Bogey Avoidance/4^th SG: OTT/28^th GIRs/17^th SG: P

Form: 22^nd/5^th/MC/62^nd/9^th

History: 55^th/MC/18^th/37^th

Notes: I never like fading Gary as a big fan but he always ends up owned and I’m concerned that putting regression is coming on top of his SG: OTT game being very, very weak the last several weeks… he’s gained strokes putting in all 5 events he’s played since the restart and has lost strokes OTT in 4 of 5… I think we can get better value in this price range

2) Henrik Stenson ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 41^st SG: T2G/10^th SG: APP/60^th BoB/38^th Bogey Avoidance/41^st SG: OTT/40^th GIRs/51^st SG: P

Form: None

History: 27^th/26^th/13^th

Notes: Maybe he ends up popular due to price or maybe he doesn’t, but similar to Fleetwood last week, I just don’t know what we’re getting with Stenson since I haven’t seen him in months and I would rather take a wait and see approach on this one and play guys I’ve seen the last several weeks

Favorite Pivot

1) Jason Day ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 9^th SG: T2G/44^th SG: APP/21^st BoB/5^th Bogey Avoidance/16^th SG: OTT/23^rd GIRs/46^th SG: P

Form: 4^th/7^th/MC/46^th/MC/MC

History: 40^th

Notes: Here’s a fun one… never feels good to trust Day with how hurt he is all the time but he’s top 10 in T2G in this field, has gained on APP in his last 3, T2G in his last 5, and in terms of bogey avoidance and saving par, Day is one of the best there is… could he WD? Sure, but I feel like he’s been playing a ton and if he was REALLY hurt, why would he be showing up at small events? Cue the WD now that I said that…

OTHERS I LIKE: Hideki Matsuyama/Kevin Na/Joaquin Niemann/Ian Poulter

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Chez Reavie ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Quick Hits: Very streaky but does rank 6^th in Bogey Avoidance and 7^th in GIRs Gained… Top 25 in APP and T2G but it only matters if he putts at least average

2) J.T. Poston ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Similar to Chez, Poston can go very low or very high… only 6500 and won’t be owned and he ranks 31^st in Bogey Avoidance and 6^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda

3) C.T. Pan ($6,100) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Ranks CT has been ball striking his ass off lately… ranks 24^th in T2G, 7^th in SG: APP, 25^th in Bogey Avoidance, 6^th in GIRs and 25^th in BoB… find the putter dude!

4) Nick Taylor ($6,100) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Won a few months ago at a birdie fest so we know he can go low… 28^th in SG: APP, 31^st in GIRs and dirt cheap so you don’t need him to do a TON

Cash Game Options (NOTE: NO CASH FOR ME PERSONALLY BUT HERE ARE GUYS I WOULD USE)

1) Webb Simpson

2) Xander Schauffele

3) Collin Morikawa

4) Hideki Matsuyama

5) Sergio Garcia

6) Paul Casey

7) Matt Kuchar

8) Kevin Streelman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 33% Recent Form, 12% Course History, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 20% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Justin Thomas
2. Jon Rahm
3. Daniel Berger
4. Bryson DeChambeau
5. Webb Simpson
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Patrick Reed
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Matthew Fitzpatrick
10. Tyrrell Hatton
11. Viktor Hovland
12. Tony Finau
13. Gary Woodland
14. Rory McIlroy
15. Jason Day
16. Billy Horschel
17. Patrick Cantlay
18. Abraham Ancer
19. Dustin Johnson
20. Ryan Palmer

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Daniel Berger

Tyrrell Hatton

Webb Simpson

Xander Schauffele

Tony Finau

OAD Pivots

Hideki Matsuyama

Rickie Fowler

Ian Poulter

Dustin Johnson

Jason Day

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