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Course: Winged Foot

Fast Facts

• Par 70 approx. 7477 yards
• Poa/Bentgrass Greens (13+ on the stimp; FAST); 6600 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)
• Field: 144 players; Top 60 and Ties make the cut
• Designed by A.W. Tillinghast with Gil Hanse revamp in 2016-2017
• Most recent US Open hosted here was 2006, won by Geoff Ogilvy
• 2006 stats: Ogilvy made 9 birdies TOTAL; won at +5
• More 2006 stats: Scoring average of 74.99, Fairways hit at 50%, Greens 52%, Scrambling 40%
• Tight fairways (19-23 yards on avg) with thick rough from 3.5-5 inches
• Corollary Courses: Oakmont, Bethpage Black, Baltusrol, Firestone, Torrey Pines (South Course), TPC Harding Park
• Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Jason Day, Tiger Woods, Charles Howell III, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed

 

Course and Weather Notes: Didn’t know if we’d even be getting a US Open this year due to the pandemic but it’s here and this course is going to eat these players alive (or at least it should). Winged Foot was the sight of the 2006 US Open which famously saw Phil double his last hole of the day (after only needing a bogey) to give it to Ogilvy who won the tournament at +5, had zero rounds under par, and saw the field cut after Friday at 10 OVER PAR. This course is no joke with only 1 hole having played under par in 2006 and it was the easier 550-yard Par 5 ninth. The fairways are tight, the rough is thick, and I would be shocked to see a winning score under par (I projected between 2 to 4 over for the winner). It’s a weird week in that looking at stats I’m focused on, I have included nothing much with scoring or birdie makers as I think that will be mitigated here with how long the course is, how fast the greens are running, and the fact that if you miss the fairways you quite literally can’t advance it. It’s only Tuesday as of this writing but I’m also seeing possible wind gusts of 20+ mph throughout the day on Friday which would somehow make this even a harder test. Sure guys have gotten better since 2006, there is better equipment, and overall players just hit it farther; however, I am laser focused on the guys who hit a ton of fairways and mitigate the mistakes. I don’t think the bomb and gauge or elite birdie makers can’t succeed here, but in terms of fantasy scoring, I think a lot of the birdie fest guys such as Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, and even Si Woo Kim have every chance to win but will be tough to return value with a lack of scoring opportunities. The last thing I’ll note is that I’m putting much more of an emphasis in my rosters and bets on guys who I project to finish in the Top 20 or better, which sounds obvious, but many weeks you have guys who may finish T38 but come Top 15 in scoring due to birdies but I will definitely take less risk on fliers who may very well shoot 85 on Day 1 and be totally out of things.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ AND 75-125)
• SG: Around the Green
• Driving Blend (SG: OTT + Fairways Gained + Driving Distance)
• Bogey Avoidance
• GIRs Gained
• SG: T2G

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Collin Morikawa ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 24^th SG: APP/44^th SG: ARG/27^th Driving/53^rd Bogey Avoidance/43^rd GIRs/15^th T2G

Form: 6^th/20^th/MC/1^st/20^th/48^th/1^st/MC

U.S. Open History: 35^th

Course Fit Rank: 16

Notes: One of the few this week I believe actually fits the “long and straight” narrative along with the fact that he’s a Top 5 player in this field with his long irons (175 yards or more); I have no reason to believe he can’t back up his PGA Champ victory with a US Open victory and I’m glad he shook off the blip at the NORTHERN TRUST and had a solid last 3 days at the TOUR Champ

2) Webb Simpson ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 14^th SG: APP/30^th SG: ARG/24^th Driving/10^th Bogey Avoidance/17^th GIRs/11^th T2G

Form: 12^th/6^th/3^rd/37^th/12^th/MC/8^th

U.S. Open History: 16^th/10^th/35^th/MC/46^th/45^th/32^nd/1^st/14^th

Course Fit Rank: 35

Notes: I will always prefer Webb on Bermuda but he has played so hot this year, like Morikawa is one of the better long iron players in the field since he’s not a long hitter, and he’s a veteran with a US Open win to his name and knows the importance of limiting mistakes and taking his medicine; ranks Top 30 or better in every category I’m looking at this week

Fades

1) Jon Rahm ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 12^th SG: APP/8^th SG: ARG/12^th Driving/1^st Bogey Avoidance/2^nd GIRs/6^th T2G

Form: 4^th/1^st/6^th/13^th/52^nd/1^st/27^th/37^th

U.S. Open History: 3^rd/MC/MC/23^rd

Course Fit Rank: 9

Notes: Tough to argue a fade here as Rahm’s stats are elite and he has some of the most winning equity in the field… no issues if you play him but for me, I prefer DJ at $500 more, Rahm has actually lost strokes on APP in 2 of his last 3, and with a course that has so much trouble lurking, I can see Rahm getting cold with the driver and all of a sudden making a lot of big numbers in a hurry…

2) Tony Finau ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 37^th SG: APP/7^th SG: ARG/68^th Driving/36^th Bogey Avoidance/22^nd GIRs/13^th T2G

Form: 17^th/5^th/MC/4^th/65^th/3^rd/8^th/53^rd/MC

U.S. Open History: MC/5^th/MC/14^th

Course Fit Rank: 7

Notes: Per what I said in the intro, I always prefer to play Finau in birdie fests where he may not finish Top 5 or Top 10, but he makes so many birdies and eagles; however, this is not the course type and I think he’ll have to rely too much on his finishing position to hit any sort of value… plus, he’s always a DFS darling so I will pivot elsewhere in this 9K and up range and take my chances

Favorite Pivot

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: APP/14^th SG: ARG/82^nd Driving/22^nd Bogey Avoidance/102^nd GIRs/12^th T2G

Form: 15^th/3^rd/29^th/22^nd/20^th/MC/22^nd/21^st

U.S. Open History: 21^st/16^th/2^nd/MC/18^th/35^th/10^th

Course Fit Rank: 8

Notes: Always risky to trust Hideki in general due to how bad of a putter he is but as I said on the podcast this week, he’s actually very, very good around the greens and if he can just putt somewhat average on greens I think most of the field will struggle, he can grind his way to pars; he’s always one of the best with the irons, so I think the only risk is that unique swing gets off track and he misses fairways

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Adam Scott ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 46^th SG: APP/24^th SG: ARG/57^th Driving/25^th Bogey Avoidance/15^th GIRs/37^th T2G

Form: 25^th/58^th/22^nd

U.S. Open History: 7^th/MC/MC/18^th/4^th/9^th/45^th/15^th/MC/MC

Course Fit Rank: 12

Notes: I never get too caught up in Scott’s stats due to his lack of tournaments played compared to the field; however, I will say, out of every tournament in 2020, he’s only lost OTT once (BMW) and only lost SG: ARG once as well (NORTHERN TRUST); always great T2G and always a bad putter, Poa is by far his best putting surface and I love that he hits a ton of fairways

2) Patrick Reed ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 58^th SG: APP/62^nd SG: ARG/13^th Driving/11^th Bogey Avoidance/51^st GIRs/50^th T2G

Form: 8^th/40^th/49^th/9^th/13^th/47^th/10^th/39^th/MC/24^th

U.S. Open History: 32^nd/4^th/13^th/MC/14^th/35^th

Course Fit Rank: 9

Notes: Here’s the first bit of chalk that I’m eating as I expect either Reed/Webb/Xander to be the highest owned on the slate; every has figured Reed out as he’ll never pop in stat models and has actually lost on SG: APP in 3 straight events, but he’s the ultimate grinder and scrambling player on TOUR; he’s quietly gained OTT in 7 straight tournaments and we’ve seen before (i.e. The Masters) when he gets locked in, he just doesn’t miss putts which is exactly what you’ll need to contend this week

3) Matthew Wolff ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 27^th SG: APP/38^th SG: ARG/2^nd Driving/18^th Bogey Avoidance/4^th GIRs/7^th T2G

Form: 16^th/44^th/4^th/49^th/12^th/22^nd/MC/2^nd/MC

U.S. Open History: None

Course Fit Rank: 19

Notes: It’s a shame he’s starting to get some buzz because Wolff is one of my favorite DFS plays and favorite bets of the week; normally a weak putter, his best surface is Poa, he’s gained in SG: OTT in 8 of his last 9 tournaments, and has shown the pedigree to compete in big name events as an ice cold putter kept him from contending with Morikawa at the PGA Champ combined with the fact that he possess the rare bomber off the tee + very accurate that everyone will need this week

4) Louis Oosthuizen ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 29^th SG: APP/54^th SG: ARG/23^rd Driving/13^th Bogey Avoidance/85^th GIRs/25^th T2G

Form: 25^th/13^th/33^rd/6^th/54^th/65^th/46^th

U.S. Open History: 7^th/16^th/23^rd/23^rd/2^nd/40^th/WD/MC/9^th/MC

Course Fit Rank: 29

Notes: Added a 4^th core play this week as I love this range; I rarely play Louis but man this is a great set up… he’s gained on APP in 5 straight tournaments, gained T2G and OTT in 4 straight, has only missed 1 cut since the restart, and maybe it doesn’t mean much but his US Open history is tremendous with 5 straight T23 or better and 3 Top 10s in his last 10 starts… let’s just hope he doesn’t WD
Fades

1) Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 57^th SG: APP/128^th SG: ARG/15^th Driving/14^th Bogey Avoidance/12^th GIRs/57^th T2G

Form: 6^th/MC/MC/6^th/3^rd/27^th/MC

U.S. Open History: 12^th/12^th/35^th/54^th/48^th

Course Fit Rank: 90

Notes: I get the Fitz play this week I really do: he’s never missed a cut at the US Open, his form is actually pretty good with 3 T6s or better in his last 4, and as a Euro guy he’s used to grinding pars and tough courses; my only issue with him is that if his red hot putter goes cold he may be in trouble as he’s lost ARG in 4 of his last 5, lost on APP in 3 of his last 4, and lost T2G in 3 of his last 4 as well… he hits a ton of fairways so he’ll need to make sure that putter is locked in…

2) Brendon Todd ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 116^th SG: APP/27^th SG: ARG/54^th Driving/128^th Bogey Avoidance/129^th GIRs/65^th T2G

Form: 20^th/8^th/64^th/MC/17^th/15^th/22^nd/57^th/11^th

U.S. Open History: MC/MC/17^th

Course Fit Rank: 85

Notes: So I get that Todd hits a lot of fairways and he’s having a career resurgence and that is awesome… I genuinely mean that… but he’s about to be 12-15% owned, has lost strokes OTT in 8 of his last 9, has lost on approach in 4 of his last 6, lost T2G in 5 of his last 6 and is on the only putting surface that he doesn’t gain any strokes on average… this is the easiest of fades for me

Favorite Pivot

1) Justin Rose ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 5^th SG: APP/137^th SG: ARG/28^th Driving/37^th Bogey Avoidance/32^nd GIRs/20^th T2G

Form: 25^th/MC/9^th/MC/MC/MC

U.S. Open History: 3^rd/10^th/MC/MC/27^th/12^th/1^st/21^st/MC

Course Fit Rank: 13

Notes: What a season it’s been for Rose… started out hot and almost won the first tournament back, then forgot how to play golf for 3 weeks, has the quietest Top 10 at the PGA Champ and then misses the cut immediately after… through all of it, he’s gained in SG: OTT in 7 of his last 8 and has been volatile on APP, T2G, and with the putter… his ARG numbers worry me but he’s a former winner that knows the importance of saving par and how to play a course set up like this… plus under 10% owned? yes

OTHERS I LIKE: Tiger Woods/Tyrrell Hatton/Harris English/Paul Casey/Sungjae Im/Martin Kaymer

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Corey Conners ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Will burn me when he loses 400 strokes putting but Conners FITS THIS COURSE; 4^th T2G, 22^nd in APP, 10^th in GIRs, 1^st in Driving, 5^th in Bogey Avoidance… Fairways + Greens and putt average!

2) Keegan Bradley ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: This doesn’t feel good… 17^th T2G, 21^st in SG: APP, Top 50 in Driving and GIRs and ranks 6^th in my Course Fit model… also of note, and this is hilarious if nothing else, Keegan has now lost strokes putting in 8 straight events and 13 of his last 14… wow

3) Jason Kokrak ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: Has gained in SG: OTT every tournament since January, gained in T2G and APP in 5 straight and is coming off 3 straight T15 finishes or better; ranks 3^rd T2G, 6^th in SG: APP, 22^nd ARG, 7^th in GIRS, 16^th in Driving, and 19^th in Bogey Avoidance… stats are great but he has blow up potential so GPP only…

4) Kevin Streelman ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: The real goat… 34^th T2G, 15^th in SG: APP, 29^th in GIRs, 21^st in Bogey Avoidance, has made 8 straight cuts with 3 T7 or better in that span… what a BEAST

5) Sebastian Munoz ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: 14^th T2G, 10^th SG: ARG, 11^th GIRs, 4^th in Bogey Avoidance, and his most recent finishes are 8^th/8^th/18^th… cheap flier who has upside if he can avoid the blow up holes

Cash Game Options

1) Xander Schauffele

2) Collin Morikawa

3) Webb Simpson

4) Hideki Matsuyama

5) Patrick Reed

6) Tyrrell Hatton

7) Paul Casey

8) Louis Oosthuizen

9) Henrik Stenson

10) Corey Conners

11) Kevin Streelman

12) Brian Harman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 20% of their Top 20 Odds, and 5% of my Course Fit Ranks

1. Jon Rahm
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Collin Morikawa
4. Webb Simpson
5. Tony Finau
6. Justin Thomas
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Patrick Reed
10. Matthew Wolff
11. Tyrrell Hatton
12. Harris English
13. Daniel Berger
14. Si Woo Kim
15. Jason Kokrak
16. Jason Day
17. Rory McIlroy
18. Sebastian Munoz
19. Matthew Fitzpatrick
20. Paul Casey

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Dustin Johnson

Jon Rahm

Xander Schauffele

Rory McIlroy

Tommy Fleetwood

Daniel Berger

OAD Pivots

Tiger Woods

Adam Scott

Tyrrell Hatton

Hideki Matsuyama

Jason Day

Louis Oosthuizen

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