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Course: Waialae CC

Fast Facts

• Par 70; 7044 yards (one of the shortest courses they play all year)
• Harder fairways to hit (hit at about 52% compared to TOUR avg of 62%)
• Greens: Bermuda and small
• Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. ft. (LARGE)
• Field: 144 players; NEW CUT RULE: NO MDF; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average Cut around -1; we could see a tougher test this week with expected wind/rain all 4 days
• Average winning score around -20
• Corollary Courses: OHL (El Camaleon), RBC Heritage (Harbour Town), Valspar (Copperhead)
• Susceptible to high winds (expected high winds all 4 days this week as well as precipitation)
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Brian Harman, Joaquin Niemann, Webb Simpson, Kyle Stanley, Vaughn Taylor, Ryan Armour

Course and Weather Notes: Welcome to our first full field event of the new decade! We are in Hawaii this week at Waialae CC as the tour has been for the last 50+ years and we have a nice mix of studs, new players on the TOUR, and some old veterans. The weather this week looks… not ideal. There is expected 20-30 mph gusts every day and rain expected at least 3 of the days I believe. This course is one of the shortest the players will see all year so while driving distance is always an advantage, positioning is much more key here, which is similar to the corollary courses I listed above. This course historically is one where scrambling doesn’t matter much because pars will get you nowhere near to the top with the usual -20 or so winning score but with bad weather, we may give a slight, slight lean to guys who are good around the greens and put even more of a premium on hitting fairways.

YTD Results (Cash) – TRACKING WILL START FOLLOWING THIS WEEK

GPP Results – TRACKING WILL START FOLLOWING THIS WEEK

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• Fairways Gained
• BoB Gained
• SG: Par 4s (emphasis on 350-450 yards)
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Putting (emphasis on Bermuda)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 12%; It seems like Hideki could be the forgotten man up top this week as I have JT projected for 25% ownership, Webb probably comes in 17-18%, Morikawa 17-18%, and Reed around 15%… Hideki’s lack of course history will scare people off as he missed 4 straight cuts years ago and has a 27^th and 51^st to his name… consistently one of the best ball strikers in the game, we haven’t seen him since the President’s Cup but before that his last 4 starts were 8^th, 11^th, 2^nd, 3^rd… will he putt at least average?

2) Sungjae Im ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 20%; I will gladly eat the chalk here and pivot elsewhere in the mid-tier range… he looked awesome at the President’s Cup and I KNOW his first win, or wins, is coming very, very soon; Sungjae is 8^th in SG: BS, 24^th in SG: APP, 4^th in SG: Putting, 5^th in BoB, and 21^st in the key Par 4 range… love him to contend this week; core play

Fades

1) Patrick Reed ($10,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%; To be clear… I love “Patrick Reed the Villain” right now because it’s hilarious and he just owns it… that being said, he was all over the place and without about a million one putts and over 9 strokes gained putting he would have been no where near the top… he never projects that well in stats but 84^th in SG: BS, 100^th in SG: APP, 103^rd in Fairways I will pass due to his price and needing a T5 or better to pay it off most likely

2) Matt Kuchar ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Played fine last week and has some immense success here, including a win in 2019, but I’ll probably wait to start playing Kuch until he has a more consistent schedule and I’ll eat some chalk elsewhere… I think he’s quite overpriced here…

Favorite Pivot

1) Abraham Ancer ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 9%; People are going to see this price tag on Ancer and immediately fade based on name value… he’s definitely slightly overpriced but he hits a lot of fairways, a ton of greens, and has 2 Top 8 finishes in his last 4 to go along with a very stellar performance at the President’s Cup; definitely someone I’ll take a shot with in GPPs

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Corey Conners ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 15%; I used to play Conners when he was in the 6k range so how about nearly 9k? Conners is so elite that if he could putt he would win A LOT; 1^st in SG: BS, 13^th in Par 4s, 1^st in GIRs, 26^th in APP, 28^th in BoB, and has 4 straight Top 20 or better finishes dating back a few months… he also finished 3^rd here last year after GAINING on putting for once… Conners has finished inside the Top 10 every single time he gained over zero strokes putting in the last year with the exception of one tournament… wow; core play

2) Brian Harman ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 8%: I don’t know why I get suckered into Harman every week but here we are again… stats wise he’s 30^th in SG: BS, 9^th in SG: APP, 14^th in Par 4s, 30^th in SG: Putting; I’m hoping people see the MC here last year and forget that before that he had 4 straight Top 20s here in a row including a 4^th… high upside play here

Fades

1) J.T. Poston ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 18%; Seeing a ton of love for Poston this week and it makes me really like a pure ownership fade… he’s a great Bermuda putter (6^th in the field) and hits a lot of greens but also ranks 82^nd in SG: BS, 71^st in SG: APP, 89^th in fairways, and 93^rd in BoB… he has decent form and decent course history and I don’t HATE this spot but if he’s going to be one of the higher owned I will gladly pivot elsewhere

2) Chez Reavie ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Boy… similar story to above; Chez loves this course as shown by his history and he has been playing great this past year but at that price point and projecting for 15% owned… that’s a definite pass for me with so many options in the low 8k/high 7ks

Favorite Pivot

1) Cameron Smith ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Had an awful year last year and I don’t think anyone is going back to him here… albeit a very weak field, he did just finish 10^th in the PGA Australia 2 weeks ago and has made the last 3 cuts at Waialae; Smith is overpriced so owning around 12-15% should put you well overweight, plus, if it gets windy, he does well tough conditions…

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Doc Redman ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 7%; Great ball striker (5^th in the field) and hits a ton of fairways; can be inconsistent so a GPP play only

2) Mark Hubbard ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 3%; 16^th in the field in SG: BS, bombs it and is a solid all-around iron player; not sure if he can make enough birdies to contend but we just need a made cut

3) Matthew NeSmith ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 1%: Young rookie who can make birdies in bunches; finished T14 at the RSM in November and has shown to be an excellent putter

 

Cash Game Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama

2) Sungjae Im

3) Vaughn Taylor

4) Russell Knox

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Justin Thomas
2. Sungjae Im
3. Corey Conners
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Webb Simpson
6. Ryan Palmer
7. Collin Morikawa
8. Brian Stuard
9. Joaquin Niemann
10. Vaughn Taylor
11. Tyler Duncan
12. Cameron Smith
13. Brendon Todd
14. Henrik Norlander
15. Carlos Ortiz

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Matt Kuchar

Webb Simpson

Collin Morikawa

Patrick Reed

Charles Howell III

OAD Pivots

Kevin Kisner

Brian Harman

Brandt Snedeker