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Course: TPC Summerlin

Fast Facts

• Par 71 approx. 7255 yards
• Bentgrass Greens (11.5 on the stimp; average/slower); 7400 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)
• Field: 144 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Usually a birdie fest; all 3 Par 5s reachable by the whole field
• Average Cut of -2 or -3
• Rough almost nonexistent > bombers can crush the course but short hitters still succeed
• Corollary Courses: TPC Deere Run, TPC Twin Cities, RTJ Trail, Conway Farms, Aronimink GC
• Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Zach Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Francisco Molinari, Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff, Adam Hadwin

 

Course and Weather Notes: Vegas baby! The first of 2 straight weeks of Vegas tournaments as the TOUR moved the CJ Cup (usually in Korea) to Shadow Creek next week but back to this week’s event. With the exception of 1 or 2 years with heavy winds/tough weather, this course yields a winner of around -20 or better and basically turns into a putting contest. These greens are BIG, averaging 7400 sq. ft. so I think there should definitely be some emphasis on not only SG: APP but using the FantasyNational stat “Opportunities Gained” which are approaches on the green/fringe that are 15 feet or closer to the hole. Also, the GIR rate is high here. Scrambling and Around-the-Green have also shown to be important as about 70-80% of the Top 10 finishers over the last 5 years have gained strokes ARG en route to a win or high finish for the week. Target your heavy birdie makers, guys who score on the Par 5s, and those who are elite putters most weeks, with an emphasis on Bentgrass. In terms of weather, it looks nice as of this writing. I am seeing some possible wind gusts on the weekend and possibly on Friday so it could place even more of a premium on guys who can scramble. Onto what is a pretty decent field!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: Approach (emphasis on 125-150 and 200+)
• BoB Gained/Opportunities Gained
• SG: OTT
• SG: ARG
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 26^th SG: T2G/52^nd SG: APP/81^st BoB/49^th SG: OTT/5^th SG: ARG/6^th SG: P

Form: 8^th/12^th/6^th/3^rd/37^th/12/MC

Course History: 7^th/15^th/20^th/31^st/56^th/4^th/1^st/4^th

Notes: I think Webb and Bryson are both great plays this week but with the $800 savings on Webb I love him as a core play; he has 2 wins and 4 Top 8s or better in his last 12 starts and has gained on SG: T2G in 10 of those 12… he’s always more of a lock button on Bermuda but even on Bentgrass, Webb won’t be hindered by his shorter distance and we know how hot he can get with the irons/putter…

2) Matthew Wolff ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 1^st SG: T2G/5^th SG: APP/2^nd BoB/5^th SG: OTT/8^th SG: ARG/55^th SG: P

Form: 2^nd/16^th/44^th/4^th/49^th/12^th/22^nd

Course History: 18^th

Notes: Came so close at the US Open (where I had an outright on him) but he has been just tremendous the last few months; 2 Top 5s at the majors, has gained on SG: APP and SG: T2G in 5 of his last 6 and now gets to hit driver with basically nonexistent rough in a birdie fest… he will probably be one of the highest owned players in both cash and GPPs but he’s an elite play in all formats

Fades

1) Patrick Cantlay ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 40^th SG: T2G/100^th SG: APP/109^th BoB/27^th SG: OTT/25^th SG: ARG/51^st SG: P

Form: 43^rd/12^th/MC/43^rd/35^th/32^nd

Course History: 2^nd/2^nd/1^st

Notes: Look away if you’re a course history truther because no one is better here in that stat than Cantlay; however, over his last 6 tournaments he’s been just meh, only posting one T12 and the rest outside the Top 30 and has been inconsistent with the putter; always great T2G, I’ll hesitantly pass on Cantlay, despite the course history and just hope he doesn’t finish 1 or 2 again…

2) Rickie Fowler ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 27^th SG: T2G/30^th SG: APP/89^th BoB/53^rd SG: OTT/26^th SG: ARG/121^st SG: P

Form: 49^th/49^th/MC/15^th/MC

Course History: 4^th/25^th/22^nd

Notes: Similar to Cantlay, I’m not really sure what’s going on with Rickie… in previous years he was one of the best putters on TOUR but since the restart he’s missed 4 cuts out of 9 tournaments and only finished T12 at the weak Rocket Mortgage field and T15 at the WGC St. Jude; his T2G has been either very hot or very cold, similar to the putter, and it’s tough to back him without any real consistency

Favorite Pivot

1) Harris English ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 10^th SG: T2G/45^th SG: APP/35^th BoB/78^th SG: OTT/1^st SG: ARG/8^th SG: P

Form: 4^th/12^th/40^th/2^nd/23^rd/19^th/18^th/13^th

Course History: 36^th/MC/4^th/16^th/40^th/60^th

Notes: Hard to call this a “pivot” really as I expect high ownership but most of the guys in the 9K+ range will be owned so I’ll go with a less popular name; English is having an incredible season and although it seems weird to see him next to names like Morikawa/Cantlay/Hideki/Wolff/Day, I think its warranted; English missed the cut at the Charles Schwab, the first event after the break from COVID and since has made all 9 of his cuts and finished T23 or better, with 3 T12 or better, in 8 of those 9; he’s an excellent Bentgrass putter, great ARG (hasn’t lost strokes ARG since the Houston Open in 2019), and I think is live to win this event

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Russell Henley ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 15^th SG: T2G/2^nd SG: APP/42^nd BoB/88^th SG: OTT/7^th SG: ARG/120^th SG: P

Form: 25^th/8^th/9^th/37^th/51^st/MC

Course History: 37^th/MC/24^th/10^th/MC

Notes: Unfortunately I think Henley will keep getting buzz and could be high owned but nevertheless, something has click for him this week… he’s gained on SG: APP in 7 straight events, 10 of his last 11, and the last 2 events that he didn’t lose strokes putting he finished 8^th and 9^th, back in August; his best surface is Bermuda but he still gains strokes, on average, on Bentgrass, and if he can keep up the irons the putts have to fall at some point… right?

2) Harold Varner III ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 4^th SG: T2G/10^th SG: APP/17^th BoB/12^th SG: OTT/6^th SG: ARG/104^th SG: P

Form: 29^th/MC/7^th/29^th/MC

Course History: 48^th/15^th/63^rd/57^th/MC

Notes: This field isn’t bad but this seems too cheap for Varner; always a T2G stud, he’s gained T2G in 13 of his last 15 tournaments and has been hot/cold with the APP game; putting is his Achilles heel, as he’s lost strokes in the category in 10 of his last 12 events, which is not great; however, when he gets on, his T2G game makes up for it and I think this is a great value at this price

3) Lanto Griffin ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 51^st SG: T2G/68^th SG: APP/106^th BoB/55^th SG: OTT/48^th SG: ARG/51^st SG: P

Form: 43^rd/18^th/10^th/58^th/19^th/58^th/44^th

Course History: 18^th/MC

Notes: One of my two strong conviction plays this week… Lanto isn’t the most accurate driver of the ball, as reflected in his SG: OTT numbers, but with the rough not being a factor this week, Lanto can capitalize on his strong SG: APP play, where he’s gained strokes in 8 of his last 9, and a putter that has come around, gaining in his last 4 events; his biggest weakness is mitigated this week and at this price, I think he has HUGE upside, as he ranks one of the highest for me this week in my calculated Top 20 odds versus Vegas (I have him about 20.8% versus the Vegas implied 16.7%)

Fades

1) Cameron Davis ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 16^th SG: T2G/63^rd SG: APP/1^st BoB/9^th SG: OTT/27^th SG: ARG/32^nd SG: P

Form: 6^th/36^th/29^th/15^th/32^nd/12^th

Course History: 28^th

Notes: Anyone in our Discord knows how much I love Cam Davis but he’s pretty expensive for this field, is going to be very popular, and I worry that after melting away his lead last week on Sunday, it may be a let down spot; he’s great T2G, OTT, and on APP, but historically a weak putter, he’s gained 4 or more strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 events, so if that runs out it could be tough to pay off that price…

2) Kevin Na ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 125^th SG: T2G/108^th SG: APP/134^th BoB/136^th SG: OTT/71^st SG: ARG/43^rd SG: P

Form: MC/27^th/51^st/39^th/MC/35^th/9^th

Course History: 1^st/MC/MC/2^nd/WD/MC/22^nd/1^st/45^th

Notes: What is Kevin Na though… like those stats are beyond horrible, as he’s lost strokes OTT in 6 of his last 7, T2G in 5 of his last 6 but like would you really be surprised if he won again this week? Probably not, but I’m still not going there; he’s equally likely to WD as he is to win but I think he’ll be over owned due to course history and I can’t back him when you see how he’s played the last month or two

3) Joaquin Niemann ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 58^th SG: T2G/104^th SG: APP/67^th BoB/13^th SG: OTT/100^th SG: ARG/29^th SG: P

Form: 23^rd/27^th/3^rd/MC/42^nd/MC/52^nd/MC

Course History: MC/10^th

Notes: Normally elite T2G and lacking a putter, Niemann has been shaky his last 6 or 7 events, as he’s lost strokes T2G in 5 of those 7 and has lost strokes on APP in 3 of his last 5… he’s always capable of putting it all together as he did finish 3^rd at the BMW a few weeks ago but in an event that you need to gain probably 6-7+ strokes putting, Niemann doesn’t seem like the guy at over an 8K price tag

Favorite Pivot

1) Cameron Smith ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Key Stats: 74^th SG: T2G/43^rd SG: APP/52^nd BoB/101^st SG: OTT/77^th SG: ARG/21^st SG: P

Form: 38^th/24^th/20^th/18^th/43^rd/59^th/68^th

Course History: 13^th/10^th/MC

Notes: My 2^nd strong conviction play of the week and I think has potential to blow up or be really, really good… Cam Smith, similar to Lanto, misses fairways more than almost anyone I know; however, he can get a very hot putter, is a good scrambler, and if conditions do in fact get windy, he averages almost a stroke gained per round in those conditions… he’s actually gained on SG: APP in 5 straight events, has quietly made 7 cuts in a row with 3 T24s or better and he gains around 0.2 strokes on average on Bentgrass greens… no one will own him and he could be a great risk/reward play in Vegas

OTHERS I LIKE: Jason Kokrak/Zach Johnson/Doc Redman/Si Woo Kim/Ryan Palmer/Joel Dahmen/Kevin the GOAT Streelman

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Henrik Norlander ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Flashed some highlights last week, finishing 4^th with a hot putter; ranks 40^th T2G, 38^th BoB, 17^th SG: Putting on Bent, and 16^th in SG: OTT… just keep the putter hot

2) Cameron Tringale ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Tringale looked great Day 1 last week and that was about it… stats always pop as he’s 53^rd T2G, 40^th SG: APP, 20^th BoB, 10^th SG: Putting on Bent, and 42^nd SG: ARG… lost strokes on APP last week but gained the 5 before that so I am cautiously hoping that was just a blip

3) Scott Stallings ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Stallings finished 5^th last week in SG: T2G at Sanderson Farms and was one of 2 guys in the Top 6 to gain in all SG categories; he’s a great Par 5 scorer and if he can avoid the bogey train, he can get hot with the irons, as he’s gained on SG: APP in 5 of his last 6 events

4) Xinjun Zhang ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: The ultimate GPP play each week… he’ll burn you a lot but also pay off just as much; his last 8 starts he has 4 MC and 4 finishes of T12 or better… LOL talk about high upside/low floor; he did finish 16^th at this event last year and ranks 5^th in the field in SG: Putting on Bent… play him at 5-10% and you’ll be 3x or more on the field and he’ll either MC by 10 or get you a Top 15

Cash Game Options

1) Tony Finau

2) Hideki Matsuyama

3) Collin Morikawa

4) Harris English

5) Russell Henley

6) Doc Redman

7) Harold Varner III

8) Joel Dahmen

9) Kristoffer Ventura

10) Kevin Streelman

11) Cameron Tringale

12) Scott Stallings

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% of my Course Fit Ranks

1. Tony Finau
2. Bryson DeChambeau
3. Matthew Wolff
4. Harris English
5. Webb Simpson
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Scottie Scheffler
8. Collin Morikawa
9. Jason Kokrak
10. Russell Henley
11. Louis Oosthuizen
12. Denny McCarthy
13. Doc Redman
14. Zach Johnson
15. Si Woo Kim
16. Harold Varner III
17. Cameron Tringale
18. Joaquin Niemann
19. Sungjae Im
20. Cameron Davis

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Matthew Wolff

Patrick Cantlay

Harris English

Tony Finau

Webb Simpson (if you somehow still have him)

OAD Pivots/If you need to make a big jump to be different!

Sungjae Im

Scottie Scheffler

Collin Morikawa

Russell Henley

Louis Oosthuizen

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