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Courses: Sea Island Resort (Seaside Course)/Plantation Course

Fast Facts

• Seaside (Played 1 of THU/FRI and both SAT/SUN; 7,005 yards, Par 70; Plantation (Played 1 of THU/FRI; 7,060 yards, Par 72, redesigned by Davis Love III in 2019)
• Bermuda Greens (12.5 on the stimp; faster); 7200 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Seaside’s main defense is possible heavy winds on the coast; Plantation course is easier
• Average Cut of -2 or -3
• One of higher GIR% on TOUR (74% vs. TOUR average 65%)
• Corollary Courses: PGA National, Sedgefield CC, TPC Kuala Lumpur, TPC Southwind, Waielae CC
• Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Lee Westwood, Justin Rose, Chez Reavie, Sungjae Im, Brendan Steele, Kevin Kisner, Charl Schwartzel, Lucas Glover

 

Course and Weather Notes: The post-Masters tournament never feels as exciting, no matter what the field or tournament is, especially this year with the TOUR close to taking a break, but we press on with the RSM Classic and one more event before a month or so break till the Mayakoba Classic in December. This course is one of a few in the rotation that is a 2 course set up with 1 course (Seaside) being played 3/4 rounds (if you make the cut), similar to Torrey Pines in January, Both courses are quite different, as the Plantation course is more inland, less susceptible to wind, and has 4 Par 5s in a Par 72 setup, while the Seaside course has large greens, is a Par 70, and can play slightly more difficult if the winds are up. Seaside is links style and if the wind is down, we can expect a winning score of probably -20 or better as the GIR% is extremely high and distance is not very important with how short the course is and the premium being put on fairway position over distance. While the possibility of wind may make it logical to put some weight on scrambling/around the green play, with such a high GIR%, I don’t think I’ll focus on it this week as the players will either pepper the greens at nearly a 75% clip or the wind will create unpredictability, so I will focus on approach play from 100-150 yards, Bermuda green specalists, and SG: OTT (more of an emphasis on fairways gained). Lastly, the most recent editions of the tournament have shown the top finishers excelling in Par 3 scoring, so I will throw a bit on that as 3 of the 4 Par 3s on the Seaside course are tougher Par 3s, between 200-225 yards.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach (emphasis on 100-150)
• BoB Gained
• SG: T2G
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• SG: OTT
• SG: Par 3s

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($11,200) → Projected Ownership: 27%

Key Stats: 38^th SG: APP/7^th BoB/2^nd T2G/2^nd SG: P/14^th SG: OTT/2^nd SG: Par 3s

Form: 10^th/17^th/13^th/8^th/17^th

Course History: 2^nd/2^nd/WD (Father passed away)/36^th/41^st/7^th/2^nd/12^th

Notes: Webb owns this course, he will be by far the highest owned, and despite his price, I will lock him into cash and move on… he’s worth fading in GPPs due to ownership and with his price he needs a Top 5 or better to pay off but I won’t bet against that and will probably own 50% or more to try to get to 2x… he’s playing great, elite Bermuda putter, and doesn’t really have a weakness in his game

2) Harris English ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 97^th SG: APP/8^th BoB/21^st T2G/41^st SG: P/19^th SG: OTT/68^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 28^th/10^th/MC/4^th/13^th/40^th

Course History: MC/46^th/MC/MC/25^th/MC/27^th/15^th

Notes: Has been playing very hot the last few months but it definitely is interesting to see that course history… phew not great; SG: APP numbers don’t look as fantastic, but that’s a lot to do with a poor tourney at the ZoZo; English has gained T2G in 5 straight, SG: OTT in 4 straight, excels on Bermuda greens, and while course history is relevant, he’s a very different player in 2020 than every before

Fades

1) Sungjae Im ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 52^nd SG: APP/21^st BoB/43^rd T2G/59^th SG: P/18^th SG: OTT/40^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 2^nd/50^th/41^st/45^th/13^th/28^th/22^nd/12^th/56^th

Course History: 37^th

Notes: Pains me to fade Sungjae but I will by into the narrative slightly that the Masters was quite a grind in which he ultimately finished T2, and while we don’t have SG data from Augusta, and we can assume his APP game was superb, it hasn’t been as lights out lately and at this price, I mainly would rather play Webb at $200 more or drop down to Henley/English/Munoz, etc

2) Tyrrell Hatton ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 15^th SG: APP/32^nd BoB/7^th T2G/52^nd SG: P/12^th SG: OTT/80^th SG: Par 3s

Form: MC/7^th/28^th/3^rd/1^st/MC/5^th/16^th

Course History: None

Notes: Somewhat like Sungjae, I mainly would rather play guys over Hatton because he is clearly in good form but I only worry about his approach game which has been volatile, and similar to what happened at Augusta, when his hot putter runs out, he can make big numbers and miss the cut; I’ll pass for other options but don’t hate the setup at all for Hatton this week

Favorite Pivot

1) Russell Henley ($10,100) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 1^st SG: APP/51^st BoB/1^st T2G/34^th SG: P/25^th SG: OTT/5^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 29^th/4^th/3^rd/27^th/25^th

Course History: MC/MC/10^th/6^th/4^th/65^th

Notes: Pretty bizarre course history for Henely as he’s missed the last 2 cuts but before that had dominated with 3 straight Top 10s; Henley is playing lights out T2G and with his irons that last several weeks and if he could putt, would have won a tournament by now; hard to call this a “pivot,” as he’ll definitely be owned, but I feel like not playing Webb is more or less a pivot and if Henley makes a few putts, his iron game should have him near the top of the leaderboard; elite play in all formats

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Doc Redman ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 17^th SG: APP/33^rd BoB/38^th T2G/36^th SG: P/10^th SG: OTT/26^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 61^st/4^th/MC/28^th/3^rd

Course History: 23^rd

Notes: Had a very poor Houston Open where he putted well for once but lost a ton of strokes around the green. In the 3 before that, he had gained T2G/APP/OTT and has been knocking on the door for what seems like over a year now. If he continues his strong long term APP/T2G play and can figure out how to putt average he is very live to get the elusive first win

2) Talor Gooch ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 80^th SG: APP/40^th BoB/19^th T2G/13^th SG: P/50^th SG: OTT/15^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 4^th/35^th/5^th/MC/37^th/MC/65^th

Course History: 23^rd/MC/MC

Notes: Is in great form and is someone I like as a bet to win this week as he can be up and down, but at this price seems like a great value for DFS and if he catches a hot putter, he has very high birdie upside; has gained SG: OTT in 8 of last 9 and SG: APP in 4 of his last 6

3) Sepp Straka ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 7^th SG: APP/5^th BoB/32^nd T2G/16^th SG: P/35^th SG: OTT/4^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 5^th/21^st/43^rd/MC/33^rd/14^th

Course History: MC/MC

Notes: Riding some good form and seems underpriced for this field; has made 5 of his last 6 cuts, and after a few weeks of a bad putter, gained in SG: P at the Houston Open on top of gaining 7.3 strokes with his irons; Straka has gained T2G in 5 straight starts, gained on APP in his last 2 and in his short career I’ve noticed he’s an above average wind player if the conditions play out that way

Fades

1) Harold Varner III ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 6^th SG: APP/11^th BoB/2^nd T2G/60^th SG: P/38^th SG: OTT/64^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 15^th/MC/13^th/29^th

Course History: 23^rd/68^th

Notes: Varner is such a great T2G player and I genuinely will root for him to win each week, but he never seems to be able to put it all together and at a price that definitely seems too cheap, I think he’ll end up being quite chalky; his APP/T2G is one of the best, but the putter can easily fail him and I don’t like the setup a ton where he’ll have to likely reach around -20 to be in contention

2) Cameron Davis ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 126^th SG: APP/15^th BoB/78^th T2G/24^th SG: P/9^th SG: OTT/119^th SG: Par 3s

Form: 68^th/52^nd/6^th/36^th

Course History: MC

Notes: Pains me to keep fading Cam Davis because I love his game and think he’s a bright young talent, but he’s continued to cool way off since his hot summer run; his hot putter has cooled off down to more his average, he’s lost strokes on APP in his last 2, and is on his worst putting surface; if I see he’s going to be low owned, I could end up changing my mind as he’s a strong wind player, being from Australia, so although that’s mostly a narrative, I would like him a lot more in tough conditions

Favorite Pivot

1) Ian Poulter ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 111^th SG: APP/100^th BoB/96^th T2G/11^th SG: P/106^th SG: OTT/43^rd SG: Par 3s

Form: 25^th/12^th/5^th/6^th/MC

Course History: 36^th

Notes: This is more of a gut feel than anything because those stats are pretty bad… however, 1) he does play a lot on the Euro Tour, which has stats that won’t show up here, and 2) despite his stats, he’s form is pretty great with 4 straight Top 25s, including a T25 at Augusta; I think this is a great course set up for him as he hits a lot of fairways and can get a hot putter, plus, if the conditions get bad, I think that makes him even more live

OTHERS I LIKE: Denny McCarthy/Sam Burns/Stewart Cink/Russell Knox/Kevin Streelman/Henrik Norlander/Matthew NeSmith

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) James Hahn ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: Really liked him a few weeks ago and he burned me, but he still ranks 12^th in this field in SG: T2G, 22^nd in BoB, 28^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda, 22^nd SG: OTT, and has 3 Top 10s in his last 4 starts

2) Doug Ghim ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: The ol’ Ghim Reaper has a T23/T14/T14 in 3 of his last 4 starts and ranks 9^th in the field in T2G, 36^th in SG: APP, 11^th SG: Par 3s, and won’t be owned and has high birdie upside

3) David Hearn ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Stats don’t like that great… but he isn’t hindered by distance this week and has made 7 cuts in a row here, with a 9^th/17^th/15^th/30^th in the last 4 years; did finish 8^th a few weeks ago

4) Brian Stuard ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Has been seriously volatile the last 7 starts at Seaside with 4 missed cuts and a 22^nd/25^th/10^th so if his irons are on (best part of his game), he has upside but definitely comes with a low floor as his irons can go out of fashion in a hurry

5) J.J. Spaun ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: I don’t know what’s happened to Spaun over the last year or so, and he hasn’t played in a several weeks, but has made last 2 of 3 cuts with a 9^th and has made 3 of 4 cuts here with a runner up finish in 2017; he’s tough to trust in a single entry or 3 max, but per his stats, he does rank 29^th T2G, 32^nd SG: APP, 48^th BoB, and 26^th in SG: OTT

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson                          

2) Russell Henley

3) Harris English

4) Brian Harman

5) Doc Redman

6) Talor Gooch

7) Denny McCarthy

8) Sam Burns

9) Russell Knox

10) Kevin Streelman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% of my Course Fit Ranks

1. Webb Simpson
2. Russell Henley
3. Doc Redman
4. Sebastian Munoz
5. Harris English
6. Corey Conners
7. Tyrrell Hatton
8. Denny McCarthy
9. Jason Kokrak
10. Sam Burns
11. Talor Gooch
12. Sepp Straka
13. Stewart Cink
14. Louis Oosthuizen
15. Kevin Streelman
16. Joaquin Niemann
17. Henrik Norlander
18. James Hahn
19. Peter Malnati
20. Sungjae Im

 

Betting Notes

Value Bets:

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