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Course: TPC Harding Park

Fast Facts

• Par 70 approx. 7234 yards
• Bentgrass Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 7000 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Narrow fairways; 25-30 yards on average
• Thick rough up to 3-4 inches
• Hosted 2015 WGC Match Play, 2009 President’s Cup, 2005 WGC
• Corollary Courses: Olympic Club, Torrey Pines, TPC Potomac, Colonial, Riviera, Bethpage Black
• Course Fit Targets: Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 8-7; DK 5-10

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: N/A; I don’t normally play cash in no cut events as I feel like most of the edge is gone

GPP: Man what could have been last week… going into the back nine on Sunday I was up about 8 grand only to have Brendon Todd bogey 3-4 holes and go birdie-less on a second straight Sunday that he held the lead, Patrick Reed couldn’t get anything going, Brooks randomly collapsed on the last 3 holes, and Justin Thomas stormed up to take the tournament… all resulting in me barely profiting. To really bury my face more in the dirt, I was in between JT and Rory as my biggest bet of the week and pick in One and Done and I chose Rory… YIKES. However, DJ looked solid as I knew he would bounce back, Brooks was a stud with his irons but just couldn’t putt all week, and Todd/Taylor were pretty solid values given their price points. I mentioned this on the pod but it was a nice change of pace to not be totally dead on Thursday as I mentioned to avoid most of the guys who sucked such as Casey (in my main lineup), Cantlay, Rahm, and a few other industry chalk guys. Overall the picks were pretty good last week with JT, Day, DJ, Chez, Bubba, and Sergio all doing pretty well while the fades were ok except for Fitzpatrick who was literally terrible T2G but seemingly didn’t miss a single putt till his 71^st hole but still luck boxed to a high finish. Onto the FIRST MAJOR OF THE YEAR!

Course and Weather Notes: Always fun getting a new course in the major rotation as it helps to level the playing field with no course history and everyone in the same boat with trying to guess how the conditions will be and how tough it’s going to play. In my opinion, I think we get a similar type winner to last week with around -10 to -12 and although it should play harder than traditional PGA Championships, there are still birdies out there with 2-3 short par 4s, 2 Par 5s, and then the rest of the Par 4s and Par 3s extremely difficult. While I think that there will be unknowns all week and a lot of narratives created around guys from California, guys who are good in majors (i.e. Brooks and Xander), and how thick or not thick the rough is going to be, I definitely will be putting a greater emphasis on guys who can hit fairways, guys who are good around the greens (not because the greens are small but because out of the rough you might have to get up and down from 20-25 yards after a hack), and guys who excel on long approaches (over 200 yards) with longer par 5s and 7 Par 4s over 450 yards.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 200+)
• BoB Gained
• Fairways Gained
• Par 4s Gained 450-500 yards
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)
• SG: Around the Green
• Driving Distance Gained

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($11,300) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 1^st T2G/1^st SG: APP/7^th BoB/38^th Fairways/10^th P4s 450-500/20^th SG: P/4^th SG: ARG/19^th DD

Form: 1^st/18^th/2^nd/MC/8^th/10^th

History: Won the PGA Championship in 2017

Notes: I was hoping people wouldn’t be locked into JT since he’s the highest priced player and people don’t like a guy after a win but it doesn’t seem to be the case… he continues to be the best iron player in the world and won last week despite losing strokes putting… I prefer him to both Brooks and Rory

2) Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 15^th T2G/11^th SG: APP/10^th BoB/77^th Fairways/113^th P4s/28^th SG: P/60^th SG: ARG/19^th DD

Form: 35^th/32^nd/7^th/11^th

History: 3^rd at last year’s PGA Championship

Notes: Is extremely consistent and keeps having 1 bad round that hinders his ultimate finish in tournaments… had a bad Thursday last week then finished in the Top 35… this isn’t a US open but saving par will be key and Cantlay can make birdies and get hot but also make the 5-10 foot par saves… love him in both cash and GPPs

Fades

1) Brooks Koepka ($11,100) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 11^th T2G/33^rd SG: APP/5^th BoB/131^st Fairways/121^st P4s/89^th SG: P/79^th SG: ARG/13^th DD

Form: 2^nd/MC/62^nd/MC/7^th/32^nd

History: Back to back winner in 2018 and 2019

Notes: This always feels awful to fade Brooks at a major given his pedigree but even though his APP game last week was superb (#1 in the field), he looked iffy off the tee and I think that fade miss in the rough is gonna get him in trouble here… will end up chalk and at this price point he needs to come Top 3 or better to pay it off… I’ll take the risk

2) Bryson DeChambeau ($10,300) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 68^th T2G/133^rd SG: APP/1^st Bob/129^th Fairways/31^st Par 4s/25^th SG: P/126^th SG: ARG/1^st DD

Form: 30^th/MC/1^st/6^th/8^th/3^rd

History: MC in last 2 PGA Champs

Notes: Bryon has lost over 13 strokes on APP in his last 2 events… this past week he lost over 7 on both APP and T2G but gained 10 strokes putting to finish 30^th… I know he hits the ball a mile and all the approaches will be shorter for him but his irons just don’t look right yet… I’ll pivot elsewhere

Favorite Pivot

1) Tiger Woods ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: Not listing his stats not because I’m a homer but because he’s played 1 event since the restart

Form: 40^th

History: Lol… you know

Notes: Am I a little concerned that if he has early tee times that back will be tight? Yes of course; however, I know he’s been grinding at Harding Park the last several days and he always tries to gear up for majors… he’s won a ton in California and in his only event post-COVID his irons were great but just couldn’t putt very well… I think that changes this week

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Collin Morikawa ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 3^rd T2G/4^th SG: APP/37^th BoB/1^st Fairways/73^rd P4s/91^st SG: P/58^th SG: ARG/68^th DD

Form: 20^th/48^th/1^st/MC/64^th/2^nd

History: None

Notes: Everyone will be on him due to the California connection AND the fact that he’s a stud but he’s too cheap even being a young guy… does everything well, has only missed 1 cut in his Pro career, and with how consistent he is off the tee and with his long irons he sets up PERFECTLY

2) Jason Day ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 6^th T2G/30^th SG: APP/9^th BoB/71^st Fairways/15^th P4s/9^th SG: P/6^th SG: ARG/30^th DD

Form: 6^th/4^th/7^th/MC/46^th/MC/MC

History: Won the PGA Champ in 2015

Notes: I hate how much I love Day this week… 3 straight Top 10s, has gained on SG: APP and SG: T2G in his last 3 events and his ability to scramble well and save par is perfect… as long as his back doesn’t spaz up, he still crushes the ball, he can make birdies, and has had success in California and is a previous PGA Champ winner… very live to win and is more than a fair price on DK

3) Harris English ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 34^th T2G/58^th SG: APP/42^nd BoB/58^th Fairways/29^th P4s/18^th SG: P/42^nd SG: ARG/115^th DD

Form: 18^th/13^th/17^th/MC

History: A few Top 60s but hasn’t played it in 3 years

Notes: Three straight Top 20 finishes in solid fields and ever since his missed cut off the break, has been incredibly solid and is on his best putting surface… I think he’s a fantastic value as someone who probably has a low chance of actually winning but can return excellent value as a 5^th or 6^th player in your lineups with a strong chance of a Top 20 finish
Fades

1) Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 61^st T2G/76^th SG: APP/11^th BoB/6^th Fairways/13^th P4s/6^th SG: P/55^th SG: ARG/111^th DD

Form: 6^th/3^rd/27^th/MC/14^th/32^nd

History: 2 Top 50s and 2 MCs

Notes: Fitz has now gained over 18 combined strokes putting in the last 2 weeks while losing over 3 on APP at the WGC and gaining 2.9 at the Memorial in route to back to back Top 6s… this magic putter has to falter at some point and at this price and when people see the leaderboard he seems like an easy chalk fade to me

2) Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 115^th T2G/53^rd SG: APP/46^th BoB/103^rd Fairways/33^rd P4s/66^th SG: P/59^th SG: ARG/63^rd DD

Form: 69^th/4^th/3^rd

History: 2 Top 10s in 4 tries

Notes: Always ends up popular as well and while he plays well in strong fields/tough courses, we saw what happened last week when the putter goes away and he finished near last… similar to Fitz he always ends up popular and is only 8k so I would rather pivot to Reed and guys in the upper 7k range

Favorite Pivot

1) Jordan Spieth ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 43^rd SG: T2G/59^th SG: APP/8^th BoB/128^th Fairways/10^th P4s/30^th SG: P/15^th SG: ARG/36^th DD

Form: 30^th/13^th/MC/54^th/68^th/10^th

History: 3^rd in 2019, 12^th in 2018, 13^th in 2016

Notes: Spieth has gained on APP in 4 of his last 5 tournaments including 4.7 at the Memorial and 2.7 at the WGC… he’s on his best putting surface and in the last 3 events has been just about flat gaining strokes putting… I think if he can limit the mistakes off the tee and keep it in the fairway, which hasn’t been great, he is very live to finally get back in the winner’s circle…

OTHERS I LIKE: Hideki Matsuyama/Patrick Reed/Adam Scott/Chez Reavie/Matt Wallace/Kevin Streelman/Kevin Na/Corey Conners

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Ryan Palmer ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: 3 Top 15s or better in his last 5 events and ranks 7^th in T2G and 13^th in SG: APP… very little water in this course so I love it

2) Brendan Steele ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: 25^th T2G, 7^th SG: APP, 28^th in Par 4s on 450-500, and has won twice in California so is comfortable with that setting… definitely worth some GPP shots in a 20 max

3) Russell Henley ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: 21^st T2G/2^nd in SG: APP, 16^th in Fairways Gained and has only averaged 5 bogeys a tournament over his last 5 events… if he finds any form of a putter he could be excellent value

4) Brian Stuard ($6,100) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Mega punt for a 20 max but he’s 8^th in Fairways gained and 18^th in SG: ARG… allows access to the entire field but definitely very risk as he can go super high if he doesn’t putt well

Cash Game Options

1) Xander Schauffele

2) Patrick Cantlay

3) Dustin Johnson

4) Patrick Cantlay

5) Collin Morikawa

6) Hideki Matsuyama

7) Tommy Fleetwood

8) Chez Reavie

9) Harris English

10) Kevin Streelman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% Course History, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 15% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Justin Thomas
2. Jason Day
3. Daniel Berger
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Jon Rahm
6. Matthew Fitzpatrick
7. Ryan Palmer
8. Kevin Na
9. Webb Simpson
10. Collin Morikawa
11. Dustin Johnson
12. Luke List
13. Brooks Koepka
14. Chez Reavie
15. Kevin Streelman
16. Viktor Hovland
17. Abraham Ancer
18. Billy Horschel
19. Bryson DeChambeau
20. Sergio Garcia

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Brooks Koepka

Justin Thomas

Xander Schauffele

Collin Morikawa

Jon Rahm

OAD Pivots

Tiger Woods

Tommy Fleetwood

Jordan Spieth

Patrick Reed

Hideki Matsuyama

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