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Course: TPC Boston

Fast Facts

• Par 71 approx. 7342 yards; Arnold Palmer design (Hanse redesign in 2006)
• Bentgrass Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST); 5800 sq. ft. greens on average (TOUR average)
• Field: 125 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Easy to hit fairways and easy to hit greens
• Average winning score around -17 or -18 with average cut around +2
• Corollary Courses: Liberty National, TPC Twin Cities, Ridgewood CC, Colonial CC, Glen Abbey
• Course Fit Targets: Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedker, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Kevin Na, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matusyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Brian Harman

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 9-8; DK 7-10

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: Talked about it on the pod last week and despite rarely ever paying up above 10k, let alone above 11k, in cash games, it worked out as Webb rolled to another Top 5 at the Wyndham and a 5/6 lineup was able to easily cash without a sweat… I didn’t think Ryan Moore would be THAT owned in cash and I’m glad I didn’t because I may have tried to match the field but I just never thought he was a good play last week and he felt insanely overpriced given his recent form; Henley had a very, very strong weekend, along with Sam Burns who I felt was criminally underpriced so it didn’t matter much that Glover MC (classic) and Norlander was ho hum at very high ownership… don’t look now, but that does in fact make it 3 weeks in a row on DK for cashing in double ups!

GPP: As I was looking back at the week I tried to compare it to some other weeks where I had a 5/6 for my main lineup and was shocked to see that apparently I just do not get Justin Rose right… I always seem to fade him when he T10s and I play him when he misses the cut and looks horrible… my main lineup I had some crossover with my cash LU as I loved Sam Burns, I thought Dylan Frittelli was in an awesome spot, and I took a shot on Adam Long as he can get REALLY hot on the greens… most of these worked out but the Rose MC killed me and Sergio barely making the cut and then stumbling on the weekend to something like a T50 or worse didn’t help things either… in hindsight, I should have gone with the full fade of top guys or just eaten the Webb chalk but I tried to differentiate a little bit with the chance that Webb finished outside the Top 10… still a strong week as I had 2/3 of my main GPP teams get a 6/6 and we had another profitable week… onto the ALL CAPS OPEN THE NORTHERN TRUST.

Course and Weather Notes: Last played here in 2018, we return to TPC Boston, formerly the host of the first FedEx Cup event until last year (Dell Technologies) and has yielded winners like Bryson, Rory (twice), JT, Webb, Rickie, and randomly Chris Kirk. I’m taking somewhat of a similar approach to last week as you’ll see in my key stats below as I think it will definitely play tougher, but the winning score should be close to -20 (maybe -15 or so) and you need guys who are studs with their long irons, can score on the very easy par 5s, and excel on Bentgrass greens… normally, events like this that are strong and feature the top players in the world produce high class winners; however, for DK purposes, that doesn’t mean the lower 7k and upper 6k guys can return strong value so I think my strategy will be more studs/duds this week as the “duds” are still high quality guys for the most part… as of this writing I don’t see any weather but make sure to check back as late as possible on Wednesday to see if there is any edge to be had before tee off on Thursday…

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: OTT

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 58^th SG: T2G/113^th SG: APP/1^st BoB/9^th SG: P/52^nd Opps. Gained/1^st SG: OTT

Form: 4^th/30^th/MC/1^st/6^th/8^th/3^rd

History: 1^st/30^th

Notes: I’ve been hard on Bryson the last few weeks as it didn’t look like his APP game had caught up to his insane distance but he seemed to find some decent iron play at the PGA, gaining over a stroke on APP and it’s just impossible at this point to ignore the form he’s in 7 Top 8 finishes or better in his last 10 starts, including a win, and is the defending champion at TPC Boston… I’m all in on Bryson

2) Patrick Reed ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 17^th SG: T2G/20^th SG: APP/42^nd BoB/27^th SG: P/46^th Opps. Gained/20^th SG: OTT

Form: 9^th/13^th/47^th/10^th/39^th/MC/24^th/MC/7^th

History: 35^th/6^th/5^th/4^th/74^th/70^th

Notes: On his best putting surface, plays well in elite fields, and is in solid form after another Top 10 finish last week at the Wyndham… has gained strokes T2G in 4 of his last 5 events and although I expect him to be chalk, I’ll differentiate elsewhere as I think he’s one of the strongest plays on the board and is underpriced at only 9k

Fades

1) Rory McIlroy ($10,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 36^th SG: T2G/76^th SG: APP/38^th BoB/62^nd SG: P/10^th Opps. Gained/4^th SG: OTT

Form: 33^rd/47^th/32^nd/11^th/41^st/32^nd

History: 12^th/MC/1^st/29^th/5^th/47^th/1^st/37^th

Notes: A win is probably coming soon for Rory just based on long term talent, but I can’t back him at this price as he even said in his press conference he can’t put it all together and things are off… no Top 10 finishes since the restart, can’t put it together for 4 days, and because of his history I assume he’ll get more ownership than we think

2) Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 40^th SG: T2G/56^th SG: APP/58^th BoB/30^th SG: P/76^th Opps. Gained/32^nd SG: OTT

Form: 43^rd/35^th/32^nd/7^th/11^th

History: 24^th/13^th

Notes: His stats are pretty solid since the restart as he’s gained on APP in all his events, gained T2G in all his events, but he doesn’t seem to have the putter working very well and his strong stats haven’t led to very many good finishes… I don’t hate the play, but I would much rather play several other guys in this lower 9k or upper 8k range over Cantlay

Favorite Pivot

1) Brooks Koepka ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 23^rd SG: T2G/2^nd SG: APP/36^th BoB/90^th SG: P/8^th Opps. Gained/57^th SG: OTT

Form: MC/29^th/2^nd/MC/62^nd/MC/7^th/32^nd

History: 12^th/18^th/57^th/MC

Notes: Boy what a world… normally an auto fade and now my favorite pivot and is gonna be under 10% owned… normally Brooks doesn’t really have stats going for him but he just pops and has high win equity… now, he’s striking it so well but just can’t make a putt; everyone hates him now, he’s missed 2 cuts in his last 4 starts and gassed it on Sunday at the PGA… love the leverage here

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Tiger Woods ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 48^th SG: T2G/12^th SG: APP/53^rd BoB/98^th SG: P/24^th Opps. Gained/86^th SG: OTT

Form: 37^th/40^th

History: 24^th/65^th/3^rd/11^th/11^th

Notes: Obviously I’m playing him… I think the rust is gone, he’s now in warm weather compared to the cold in San Francisco 2 weeks ago and he’s geared up to play a bunch of events in a short span… he’s gained 5.5 and 2.6 on APP in his 2 starts since the reset but just can’t putt… that won’t last and I think he lights it up this week

2) Matthew Wolff ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 14^th SG: T2G/8^th SG: APP/16^th BoB/49^th SG: P/1^st Opps. Gained/10^th SG: OTT

Form: 4^th/49^th/12^th/22^nd/MC/2^nd/MC/MC/54^th

History: None

Notes: Wolff stormed the field on Sunday at the PGA to an eventual 4^th place finish and has now gained on SG: APP in 4 straight events while not making really any putts… he has the massive birdie/eagle upside that we’re looking for this week and while all the talk (rightfully so) is on Morikawa right now, Wolff is a young stud and is one of the guys outside the Top 15-20 in odds that I think can win

3) Abraham Ancer ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 68^th SG: T2G/66^th SG: APP/59^th BoB/13^th SG: P/90^th Opps. Gained/23^rd SG: OTT

Form: 43^rd/15^th/58^th/11^th/2^nd/14^th

History: 7^th

Notes: Has gained on SG: OTT in all events since the restart and besides a blip at the Memorial has been hot with his irons too… I think people might be off Ancer since he has cooled off from previous events but we know how good he is with his long irons and if he finds a decent putter, he has Top 10 or better upside
Fades

1) Viktor Hovland ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 66^th SG: T2G/71^st SG: APP/60^th BoB/20^th SG: P/58^th Opps. Gained/69^th SG: OTT

Form: 33^rd/59^th/48^th/3^rd/12^th/11^th/21^st/23^rd

History: None

Notes: Normally a beast off the tee, Hovland has lost in SG: OTT in his last 3 events, lost on APP in 2 of his last 3, and lost T2G in 2 of his last 3 with no better than a 33^rd place finish… I like his long term talent but don’t think he’s a good enough putter to contend here this week

2) Gary Woodland ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 99^th SG: T2G/89^th SG: APP/90^th BoB/43^rd SG: P/67^th Opps. Gained/97^th SG: OTT

Form: 58^th/57^th/22^nd/5^th/MC/62^nd/9^th

History: 24^th/18^th/15^th/12^th/29^th/41^st/25^th

Notes: Has lost strokes on APP in his last 2 events, has lost on SG: OTT in 5 of his last 7 and his hot putter from a month or two ago has cooled off hard… he’s posted back to back 57^th/58^th and doesn’t seem to be able to find his driving game recently… always popular so I’ll gladly pivot here

Favorite Pivot

1) Ryan Palmer ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Key Stats: 5^th SG: T2G/4^th SG: APP/48^th BoB/110^th SG: P/5^th Opps. Gained/67^th SG: OTT

Form: 43^rd/15^th/2^nd/MC/MC/8^th/MC

History: MC/24^th/65^th/16^th/MC/MC/61^st/11^th

Notes: I definitely play Palmer more than the average DFS guy but he hits the ball sneaky far, there isn’t a TON of water here, and like every week, if he just putts average he has big upside; his last 3 events he’s gained 10.2, 4.9, and 4.7 on APP but has been shaky OTT and his putter is volatile… at this price I’ll take a bunch of shots in GPPs

OTHERS I LIKE: Daniel Berger/Rickie Fowler/Scottie Scheffler/Shane Lowry/Ian Poulter/Joel Dahmen

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Sam Burns ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: 20^th T2G, 7^th SG: OTT, 18^th in BoB, 14^th in Opps. Gained and had a strong weekend at the Wyndham so I like riding his form at now sub 7k price

2) Jason Kokrak ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: 22^nd T2G, 8^th SG: OTT, 24^th BoB, and has massive birdie/eagle upside if he gets hot as he did for 1-2 days at the Wyndham

3) Kevin Na ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: Strong bentgrass putter, ranking 10^th in the field, and while he is VERY volatile, he ranks 8^th in BoB Gained and if he can keep it in the fairway, he has upside at super low ownership

4) Brendan Steele ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: 18^th T2G, 5^th in SG: APP but is another guy who’s just a terrible putter… has gained on APP and T2G in 4 straight events and putter has actually been halfway decent…

5) Cameron Davis ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: I play him every week but he has back to back Top 15 finishes, has gained on APP and T2G in 3 straight events and allows you to stack 2 studs if you punt down here…

Cash Game Options

1) Collin Morikawa

2) Jon Rahm

3) Jason Day

4) Patrick Reed

5) Hideki Matsuyama

6) Matthew Wolff

7) Harris English

8) Ryan Palmer

9) Joel Dahmen

10) Sam Burns

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% Course History, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Jason Day
2. Justin Thomas
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Daniel Berger
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Patrick Reed
7. Jon Rahm
8. Webb Simpson
9. Bryson DeChambeau
10. Tony Finau
11. Billy Horschel
12. Xander Schauffele
13. Brooks Koepka
14. Ryan Palmer
15. Scottie Scheffler
16. Matthew Wolff
17. Kevin Kisner
18. Si Woo Kim
19. Tyrrell Hatton
20. Paul Casey

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Jason Day

Daniel Berger

Patrick Reed

Tony Finau

Bryson DeChambeau

OAD Pivots

Tiger Woods

Abraham Ancer

Matthew Wolff

Brooks Koepka

Sungjae Im

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