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Courses: El Camaleon Golf Club

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7017 yards designed by Greg Norman
• Pasapalum greens (similar to Bermuda); slow, around 11-11.5 on the stimp
• Field: 132 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• Main course defense is wind since 14/18 holes are along the coastline
• Average Cut Even or -1
• No ShotLink data (GIRs are key here)
• Corollary Courses: Accordia, Coco Beach, Albany, Port Royal, Waialae CC, TPC Kuala Lumpur
• Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, Marc Leishman, Brendon Todd, Emiliano Grillo, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Steve Stricker, Brian Gay, Scott Piercy

Course and Weather Notes: Well in what has been certainly the most bizarre year of my life, we have reached the last tournament of 2020 before shortest offseason in sports, which is about 3 weeks on the PGA TOUR. I certainly hope everyone (all 4 of you) that have read any of my content this year have had some success and I am always open to any suggestions, ideas, trolling, or whatever else you want to see me cover or not cover as we move into 2021. The TOUR this week goes to Mexico for the Mayakoba Classic and while not an “elite” field, we do have a much stronger field than usual with the likes of Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger making the trip, to name a few. There is traditionally no ShotLink data at this course so we only have basic stats to dial into, but per usual, SG: APP should reign supreme and I think with the stronger field we can expect a winning score of probably -20 or even better, so Birdie or Better, and obviously SG: Putting with an emphasis on Bermuda/Pasapalum (courses with Pasapalum have no shot link so don’t have official “Strokes Gained” on those, but Bermuda is pretty similar). In terms of course fit, I wouldn’t weigh it too heavily, as with a stronger field, normally the cream rises to the top, but for cheap guys under 8k, I will weigh course history and the course comps a little bit in making my final player pool. As of this writing (Tuesday mid-morning), I don’t see a ton of wind in the forecast, which is the biggest defense of the course, but there is rain expected all day Thursday, which if it’s a washout wouldn’t affect a specific wave but would make the course softer, which equals better scoring so make sure to wait in making lineups till late Wednesday for the most up to date weather. Onto the picks and I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach (emphasis on 100-150)
• BoB Gained
• GIRs Gained
• SG: T2G
• SG: Putting (Pasapalum/Bermuda emphasis)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($11,400) → Projected Ownership: 25%

Key Stats: 7^th SG: APP/1^st BoB/12^th GIRs/3^rd T2G/73^rd SG: P/13^th SG: OTT

Form: 4^th/2^nd/12^th/8^th

Course History: 23^rd (in 2014)

Notes: A few times a season we get a field where one guy is far and away the best player and it’s not close… JT is playing great, is probably the best iron player in the world right now, and I don’t think he’s here for a vacation and to collect a check… if he putts even average he can blow away this field as he’s made 11 straight cuts that includes 3 T2s, a win, 2 Top 10s and has gained T2G in every event since February and on APP in 11 straight events. I almost never “lock” someone in but if I only make 3 teams this week he may be in all of them as well as my cash lineup

2) Corey Conners ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 6^th SG: APP/8^th BoB/4^th GIRs/6^th T2G/105^th SG: P/1^st SG: OTT

Form: 10^th/10^th/24^th/8^th/61^st/17^th/MC/MC

Course History: MC/75^th

Notes: Made 6 cuts in a row with 3 T10s or better in his last 4 and while the putter will always be the Achilles heel, if he hits every green like he’s been known to do, these much slower greens should work to his benefit. He gained on APP in 10 of his last 11 starts, and even though he’s a terrible putter, he does have the ability to get scorching hot with his irons and by default make a few putts. I hope he ends up lower owned than 20% as people most likely gravitate to Henley/Zalatoris/Niemann/Ortiz

Fades

1) Brooks Koepka ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 25^th SG: APP/10^th BoB/18^th GIRs/17^th T2G/52^nd SG: P/65^th SG: OTT

Form: 7^th/5^th/28^th

Course History: MC (in 2013)

Notes: Unlike his normal game, Brooks actually does fit well per his current form and stats but 1) I will buy into the narrative that he doesn’t care about this tournament and is just using it as a vacation/filling the PGA TOUR requirement of playing a new event every 4 years and 2) I can’t really play 2 guys above 11k and I much prefer JT. If Brooks crushes this field, than so be it, but I’ll pass

2) Daniel Berger ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 18^th SG: APP/19^th BoB/74^th GIRs/41^st T2G/11^th SG: P/47^th SG: OTT

Form: 17^th/28^th/34^th

Course History: 51^st (in 2014)

Notes: Hasn’t played in about a month, which isn’t a huge deal, but I think his form has been off ever since the Northern Trust in August, as his APP game has been solid, but has had a volatile putter and lost strokes T2G in 2 of his last 3 and lost strokes OTT in 3 of his last 4. Berger is great on this type of course and a great Bermuda putter, but I think he’ll end up being over owned and I prefer others around him

Favorite Pivot

1) Viktor Hovland ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 50^th SG: APP/17^th BoB/1^st GIRs/9^th T2G/93^rd SG: P/5^th SG: OTT

Form: 15^th/47^th/12^th/13^th

Course History: MC/MC/7^th

Notes: Hard to find a pivot in this range that I like as most guys will get ownership, but Hovland has quietly been very strong, making his last 16 cuts in a row and despite an off week at the Houston Open, he gained on APP in 4 straight events before that, has gained OTT in 7 straight, and won in February at one of the comp courses to El Camaleon (Coco Beach; Puerto Rico Open)

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Carlos Ortiz ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 49^th SG: APP/25^th BoB/14^th GIRs/10^th T2G/39^th SG: P/51^st SG: OTT

Form: 1^st/35^th/48^th/MC/MC/46^th

Course History: 2^nd/MC/45^th/55^th/MC/9^th

Notes: Ortiz lost a little form a few months ago but is coming off a huge win at the Houston Open (also large Bermuda greens), has gained on APP and T2G in 3 straight events, has gained OTT in 5 of his last 6, and hey, it doesn’t hurt that he is back in his home country too!

2) Joel Dahmen ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 45^th SG: APP/15^th BoB/40^th GIRs/29^th T2G/55^th SG: P/34^th SG: OTT

Form: 50^th/8^th/38^th/58^th/MC/52^nd

Course History: 6^th/41^st/23^rd

Notes: Form has definitely but a little streaky but I like that he’s made all 3 cuts at this course, with a T6 last year, he’s an aggressive birdie maker that can get hot, and despite only 1 T10 recently, he has made 6 of his last 7 cuts and the one MC was at the US Open; as a bonus, he ranks Top 20 in my course fit rank

3) Adam Long ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 48^th SG: APP/86^th BoB/20^th GIRs/60^th T2G/40^th SG: P/32^nd SG: OTT

Form: 30^th/11^th/66^th/74^th/MC/5^th/13^th

Course History: 2^nd

Notes: Adam Long is so streaky but in a tournament where I expect a -20 or better to win, I want the aggressive birdie makers; Long has made 11 of his last 12 cuts, finished T5 at Corales (a comp course) in September, and has gained 7 strokes and 5.5 strokes T2G in his last 2 starts along with 5.3 and 3.5 strokes on APP while losing nearly 6 strokes putting at RSM and still coming T30; he’s definitely riskier as things can go bad quickly, but I like him as a bet at 70/1 and a great leverage GPP play

Fades

1) Emiliano Grillo ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: APP/59^th BoB/7^th GIRs/19^th T2G/118^th SG: P/24^th SG: OTT

Form: 18^th/MC/34^th/34^th/35^th/21^st

Course History: 41^st/15^th/9^th/10^th

Notes: So Grillo has great stats for this course, he’s in solid enough form, and has very strong course history and comp course history… why the fade? I do not like to participate in Emiliano Grillo chalk weeks because that has literally never once worked out so while I think he’s a fine play, I would rather take my chances on guys around him who aren’t horrific putters such as Sebastian Munoz, Brian Harman, Charles Howell, or Joel Dahmen

2) Harold Varner III ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 17^th SG: APP/21^st BoB/29^th GIRs/5^th T2G/104^th SG: P/25^th SG: OTT

Form: MC/15^th/MC/13^th/29^th

Course History: 58^th/6^th/MC/5^th

Notes: Similar to Grillo, I think Varner will be very popular and while he’s always great T2G and has some great finishes at this event, he’s lost strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4, missed 2 of his last 3 cuts, and ever since the restart, he really seems to have lost any putting ability, especially on Bermuda (his worst surface by far) so I will once again pass and pivot to higher ceiling/leverage plays

Favorite Pivot

1) Marc Leishman ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Key Stats: 87^th SG: APP/122^nd BoB/58^th GIRs/104^th T2G/25^th SG: P/93^rd SG: OTT

Form: 13^th/70^th/52^nd/MC

Course History: 24^th (in 2016)

Notes: If you don’t follow golf week in and week out, I think you would be surprised to hear that Leishman won at Torrey Pines in January of 2020 and finished 2^nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March; he proceeded to basically die after that, losing any sort of form, but because I believe in his long term talent, the fact that he’s overpriced, and is a great Bermuda putter, I think he will be unowned by anyone and maybe, just maybe, he’s found something after a strong Augusta showing (T13)

OTHERS I LIKE: Sebastian Munoz/Brian Harman/Charles Howell III/Scott Piercy/Sepp Straka/Kevin Streelman/Denny McCarthy/John HUH?!!!!???#?%#%@$!%#/Peter Malnati/Brice Garnett

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Brian Stuard ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: 20^th in the field in SG: APP, Top 30 in T2G/GIRs/BoB and sub 7k in what’s a decent but not elite field; great history here with 6/7 made cuts with 2 runner ups, a T9, and T23 in that span

2) Mark Hubbard ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: He’s very streaky but is playing better than his recent form that includes 5 missed cuts in last 8 starts; however, does have a T17 in that span, is a great Bermuda putter and has made 3 of 4 cuts here

3) Cameron Percy ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: Not an exciting play but one of the very few 6k options I like; if wind is up, he’s a great plodder being from Australian and he ranks 30^th in SG: APP, 21^st in GIRs, and 47^th in BoB

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas                           

2) Harris English

3) Russell Henley

4) Corey Conners

5) Carlos Ortiz

6) Charles Howell III

7) Joel Dahmen

8) Adam Long

9) Denny McCarthy

10) Peter Malnati

11) Kyle Stanley

12) Brice Garnett

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History Rank

1. Harris English
2. Justin Thomas
3. Russell Henley
4. Tony Finau
5. Corey Conners
6. Joaquin Niemann
7. Abraham Ancer
8. Carlos Ortiz
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Viktor Hovland
11. Brooks Koepka
12. Peter Malnati
13. Joel Dahmen
14. Sebastian Munoz
15. Scott Piercy
16. Brian Harman
17. Keegan Bradley
18. Daniel Berger
19. Kevin Streelman
20. Harold Varner III

 

Betting

Value Bets:

Carlos Ortiz 55/1

Marc Leishman 60/1

Adam Long 70/1

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!