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Course: Riviera CC

Fast Facts

• Par 71 approx. 7300 yards
• Sneaky long with short par 5s and a short (305 yards) driveable par 4
• Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (slightly smaller than TOUR average)
• Driving Accuracy 53% compared to TOUR average 61%
• GIR% 57% compared to TOUR average 66%
• Field: 120 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut after Round 2
• Average Cut around +2
• Average winning score around -12
• Corollary Courses: Quail Hollow/Augusta/Pebble Beach/Torrey Pines
• Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy/Bubba Watson/Jason Day/Patrick Reed/Adam Scott/Sergio Garcia

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 2-3; DK 1-4

GPP Results – See table below

 

Starting this season, and feel free to skip if you’re not interested, I will be writing a more in depth recap of not only the week ahead, but perhaps more importantly, what went into my thought process for both my cash game team (only 1 per week) and my main GPP team (I multi-enter each week but play my one “main” team in all multi entry/single entry/3 entry max, etc.).

Cash: When it rains it pours is the theme of this week and the ongoing cold streak I am on in DFS Golf. Tried not to overthink things this past week but a couple brutal missed cuts and me following some chalk sunk me for yet another week. I didn’t love Hadwin but decided to play him in cash since most of the industry did and he proceeded to MC… not detrimental but certainly not ideal (about 40% owned in most single-entry double ups). Sung Kang I knew was riskier but would be low owned and after he went 4 under on his 9 holes of the tournament I was feeling great… but how he ended up +3 on the day and +11 through 3 days I will never know… Lastly, and perhaps the worst, was having Vaughn fight back only to bogey his last hole to miss the cut along with Russell Knox who both sunk not only my cash team but my main lineup as well. I debated before lock whether to keep Hadwin or remove him and swap out Vaughn and him for others and while that would have most likely benefitted me, I will always stand by not tinkering as it kills you more than it helps you in the long run. That tournament is always weird and I played way less cash than normal but still hurts to see what I thought was a solid team have 2 guys miss the cut on their last hole and another implode after an electric start. Further, it’s impossible to tell without shot tracker data on 2 of the 3 courses, but it seems like Cantlay could not BUY a putt after Day 1 as at least on Day 2 he hit 17 greens and only ended up 1 or 2 under… very odd.

GPP: I tried to play a very similar lineup in my main GPP as cash with the only differences being Nick Watney over Sung Kang and Kisner over Hadwin. Similar to Taylor, Watney absolutely collapsed as he was safely inside the cut only to go +6 on his last 5 holes and miss the cut by one… infuriating. The most frustrating part of the swap there as well as I was tempted to put Nick Taylor instead of Watney, but I once again didn’t want to tinker… that one stings. Kisner never really seemed to have it in terms of winning upside and was killed, along with everyone else on Sunday, to a middling finish to give my GPP no chance of cashing. Onwards and upwards I suppose… this streak has to end at some point, right?

Course and Weather Notes: WOW, this is a stacked field. This may be better in terms of quality of players than some majors and is certainly the best we’ve seen in many months with 9 of the top 10 in the world playing (no Webb) and loaded options from a DK perspective across the whole board. This is an invitational event as of 2020, hosted by Tiger Woods, so the field is only 120 players instead of the usual 156 so the cut % should be slightly higher and it should be an awesome event with many big numbers lurking on the weekend. I’m not seeing too much of a weather concern as of now, but I will update our Discord if we see anything closer to lock on Thursday morning. As mentioned above, this course is what I would classify as “sneaky” long because although 7200-7300 yards isn’t difficult for these big hitters, with the Par 5s playing shorter and a driveable par 4, a lot of the approaches will come from 175+ or for shorter guys, 200+  A LOT. Strong Poa putters have a definite advantage here along with strong long iron players as well as Driving Distance. If you look back at previous winners and Top 3 or Top 5 finishers, they’re almost all huge hitters (for example: DJ/JT/Rory/Bubba/Holmes) which is not to say shorter guys can’t do well but the distance is such a differentiator this week in particular.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
• BoB Gained/Eagles Gained
• GIRs Gained
• Driving Distance Gained
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)
• Bogey Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,600) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: BS/12^th SG: APP/2^nd DD Gained/13^th SG: P (Poa)/5^th GIRs Gained

Form: 2^nd/9^th/3^rd/1^st

History: 4^th/20^th/20^th

Notes: First off, I think of the 3 guys above 11k it is razor thin for who’s better and I wouldn’t argue against playing any; however, Rory is my guy here as his form has been unstoppable the last few months and in a week where driving distance is so paramount, well he’s the elite of the elite

2) Adam Scott ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 55^th SG: BS/14^th SG: APP/24^th DD Gained/19^th SG: P (Poa)/4^th GIRs Gained

Form: 1^st/MC/11^th/33^rd

History: 7^th/53^rd/11^th/2^nd/10^th/17^th/MC

Notes: Scott doesn’t play a ton these days but I don’t think he needs to be playing week in and week out to contend as he’s been such an elite ball striker for so long; the stats above won’t tell you the full story either since he has limited stats the last few months, but it’s worth noting that per the European Tour stats he ranks 18^th SG: T2G/3^rd Scrambling/24^th GIR%/1^st in SG: P and is at a place where he has 3 Top 10s in his last 5 attempts… love him in all formats this week

Fades

1) Bubba Watson ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 14^th SG: BS/20^th SG: APP/10^th DD Gained/41^st SG: P (Poa)/41^st GIRs Gained

Form: 3^rd/6^th/18^th

History: 15^th/1^st/WD/1^st/14t/1^st/MC/13^th/WD/MC

Notes: Bubba may very well win this tournament with his insane history (3 in the last 6 years) and his current form so this is a purely ownership fade for me… I have more interest in others around him and I think him or DJ will be the highest owned on the whole slate in which I have no issue pivoting… I am excited however for it to burn me when he wins at 30% ownership

2) Tony Finau ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 4^th SG: BS/16^th SG: APP/27^th DD Gained/84^th SG: P (Poa)/7^th GIRs Gained

Form: 2^nd/6^th/14^th/5^th/10^th

History: 15^th/2^nd/MC/MC/56^th

Notes: Since I fade Finau every week why stop now? His form is excellent and his course history is solid but I again, like Bubba, like others around Finau or cheaper a little bit more and I will also play into the narrative that after a tough loss where he seemingly had the WMPO in the bag that this may be a letdown spot… plus, Finau is always popular in large field GPPs

Favorite Pivot

1) Tiger Woods ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 16^th SG: BS/15^th SG: APP/77^th DD Gained/70^th SG: P (Poa)/17^th GIRs Gained

Form: 9^th/4^th/1^st

History: 15^th/MC

Notes: Always fun when I get to put the best player of all time in the pivot section but it makes sense this week as the top 3 guys are such studs and will be 15+% owned and then you have a VERY underpriced DJ followed by Cantlay/Bubba/Brooks, etc. so I think Tiger comes in around 10% or even lower… his lack of course history isn’t ideal and yes he’s the host, but he’s always hounded by crowds and media so I don’t think hosting duties matter very much… love him in GPPs/3 maxes as a pivot

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Patrick Reed ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 39^th SG: BS/60^th SG: APP/39^th DD Gained/24^th SG: P (Poa)/76^th GIRs Gained

Form: MC/6^th/MC/2^nd/3^rd/28^th

History: 59^th/MC

Notes: Similar to Tiger, Reed has almost no course history and hasn’t played here in a few years, plus, isn’t known as a long hitter; however, Reed consistently excels in strong fields and on a course where you need save par constantly, few scramble or avoid bogeys better than Reed (10^th in Bogey Avoidance)

2) Collin Morikawa ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 3^rd SG: BS/1^st SG: APP/72^nd DD Gained/50^th SG: P (Poa)/15^th GIRs Gained

Form: 25^th/21^st/21^st/7^th/5^th

History: None

Notes: This kid is an absolute machine, especially with his irons, and despite being a trendy/popular low 8k pick, I love him in all formats; his finishes have been solid and that is whilst putting well below his baseline as he’s lost in SG: P his last 3 of 4 events and still finished no worse than T25… on his best surface I expect another high finish with tremendous upside

3) Joaquin Niemann ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 18^th SG: BS/9^th SG: APP/13^th DD Gained/46^th SG: P (Poa)/24^th GIRs Gained

Form: 49^th/57^th/5^th

History: 44^th

Notes: I will have to monitor if he is trending to become cheap chalk, which is never a good feeling, but Niemann is just such a stud in his T2G that this is much too low of a price; he’s gained on SG: APP in his last 9 measured events, gained in SG: OTT in his last 8 events, and T2G in 8 of his last 9 events… if he can catch a hot putting week he has winning potential even in this loaded field
Fades

1) Justin Rose ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 70^th SG: BS/32^nd SG: APP/49^th DD Gained/18^th SG 😛 (Poa)/46^th GIRs Gained

Form: MC/2^nd/5^th/20^th

History: 4^th/16^th/45^th/13^th/9^th/36^th

Notes: I get the play here as Rose is clearly way too cheap given his abilities and being the 10^th ranked player in the world; however, he hasn’t really been playing and at the Farmers he looked awful… I think at this price he has the potential to be mega chalk with DJ and Bubba and that’s an easy pivot for me with such a loaded 8k and 9k range this week

2) Sergio Garcia ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 80^th SG: BS/101^st SG: APP/46^th DD Gained/109^th SG: P (Poa)/80^th GIRs Gained

Form: 6^th/23^rd/8^th/MC/6^th

History: 37^th/49^th/MC/4^th/13^th/4^th

Notes: I thought I might play Sergio at the beginning of the week but he’s trending towards being a “sneaky” 7k play that ends up chalk; his stats aren’t as bad as they seem above as he’s been playing mostly on the Euro Tour, but I still never trust his putter and I think it takes a few rounds/tournaments for Euro guys to adjust being back on the PGA Tour

Favorite Pivot

1) Keegan Bradley ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Key Stats: 35^th SG: BS/50^th SG: APP/60^th DD Gained/53^rd SG: P (Poa)/28^th GIRs Gained

Form: 49^th/16^th/12^th

History: 51^st/MC/34^th/MC/4^th/20^th/16^th/2^nd/MC

Notes: As long as Keegan doesn’t get any buzz I’ll feel good about this pivot because a chalky Keegan is always a disaster… his course history is mixed and form is mixed as well, but I like that he at least knows this course and despite being his bad putter, you do not want to be spraying the ball here and Keegan hits it plenty far and one of the straightest on TOUR… love him in GPPs and 3 max/20 max tournaments

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Carlos Ortiz ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: 22^nd in DD Gained/50^th in SG: BS/49^th in SG: APP; I also always play him… sneaky good course history with a 9^th/26^th/20^th

2) Charley Hoffman ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: 42^nd SG: BS/22^nd SG: APP; mixed form/history but can get hot and will be owned by no one

3) Luke List ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: 44^th SG: BS/23^rd DD Gained/17^th SG: P (Poa); huge bomber who has made his last 2 cuts and course history isn’t terrible with a 15^th/26^th/MC/20^th

2) Kevin Tway ($6,200) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: 61^st SG: BS/46^th SG: APP/14^th DD Gained; stats are mediocre but he’s near the min, is a huge hitter, and if he just makes the cut he’s already exceeded value

Cash Game Options

1) Dustin Johnson

2) Patrick Cantlay

3) Adam Scott

4) Collin Morikawa

5) Paul Casey

6) Scottie Scheffler

7) Jason Kokrak

8) Carlos Ortiz

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Justin Thomas
2. Jon Rahm
3. Tony Finau
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Marc Leishman
6. Bubba Watson
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Tiger Woods
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Abraham Ancer
12. Justin Rose
13. Patrick Reed
14. Collin Morikawa
15. Paul Casey

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Bubba Watson

Rory McIlroy

Dustin Johnson

Xander Schauffele

Adam Scott

OAD Pivots

Patrick Reed

Jordan Spieth

Bryson DeChambeau

Brooks Koepka

Justin Rose

 

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