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Course: Olympia Fields (North Course)

Fast Facts

• Par 70 approx. 7366 yards
• Bentgrass Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST); 5800 sq. ft. greens on average (TOUR average)
• Field: 70 players; No cut
• Former tournaments hosted: 2003 US Open (won by Furyk); 2015 US Am. (won by Bryson)
• green size approx. 5000 sq. ft. (SMALL); bentgrass greens (with mix of Poa)
• Links style
• Corollary Courses: Glen Oaks, Ridgewood, Colonial, Firestone, TPC Harding Park, Old White TPC, Aronimink CC
• Course Fit Targets: Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods, Kevin Na, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 10-8; DK 8-10

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: A weird cash week for me in that it was extremely stress free as I managed to avoid a lot of the chalk bombs in Finau, Morikawa, Horschel, and some others and I took a risk that ultimately paid off pretty well… I felt extremely confident in my core 4 guys for cash: Hideki/Wolff/Berger/Day and despite the Day missed cut after a disastrous nine on a par 5 late on Friday, he was very popular and it wasn’t a problem that he wasn’t there on the weekend… with having so many expensive guys I took a shot and rode the form/long term talent of Cam Davis who had a scorching 4 days, scored 100 DK points, and finished well at only $6,300. I rounded out the team with Patrick Reed who I knew would also be popular but despite a meh finish him in he was riding good form and plays well in strong events. I don’t normally recommend getting risky in cash with either a top stud or a punt down low, but with a field stronger than normal and many of the 6k guys not really being “scrubs,” I thought the risk was worth it and I was lucky to avoid a lot of the guys that blew up people’s cash lineups. Four in a row!

GPP: GPPs were kind of hit or miss for me this week as I never had anything in contention with only making 4 teams and having Bryson in 2 of them… I was; however, able to continue my streak of my main GPP team (single entries, etc) being by far my worst with Bryson crushing me and Ancer never getting anything going… I did have one team with Rahm/DJ/Harris English which cashed handsomely… but alas, a Joel Dahmen missing the cut on the number made sure the ceiling wasn’t too high… one note is that I had a dominant LU on the FD that came top 20 in the $5 SE and although my volume is way lower over there, the pricing is so bad each week that you can truly play anyone you want and not have to worry much about being duped or getting too chalky. Onto the 2^nd leg of the FedEx Cup!

Course and Weather Notes: A bit of an unknown this week which will lead to people following the same narratives from people with “course knowledge” or many different tout websites preaching the same thing… a few things I’ve heard and mostly agree with is that it will not play as difficult as the US Am. Or a US Open as the set ups for FedEx are meant for birdies… the 2^nd is how long it is which I think definitely has me favoring the bombers with 7 Par 4s over 450 yards and both Par 5s around or longer than 600 yards. I don’t see anywhere near the winning score by DJ last week (incredible by the way) or numerous guys finishing -20 or better, but the birdies will still be out there. The last thing is that I would definitely put some emphasis on Scrambling as these greens are much smaller and if the rumors I’ve seen of thick rough are true, guys will need to save par certainly more often than at TPC Boston.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT
• SG: Around the Green/Scrambling
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

Instead of Course History this week, since there is none, I’m going to give a “Course Fit” rank which is AVG. strokes gained (total) on the comp courses for this week

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,800) → Projected Ownership: 20%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: T2G/6^th SG: APP/12^th BoB/25^th SG: OTT/11^th SG: ARG/34^th SG: P

Form: 49^th/37^th/1^st/18^th/2^nd/MC/8^th/10^th

Course Fit Rank: 7^th

Notes: Will definitely be one of the most popular on the slate but in only a 70 man field I definitely want heavy exposure to the best player in the world… he won at Memphis despite losing strokes on the greens; has gained over 4 strokes T2G in each of his last 5 and if he putts average/above average, he can runaway with this thing (also won the BMW Champ last year at -25 albeit a different course)

2) Webb Simpson ($10,100) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 9^th SG: T2G/22^nd SG: APP/7^th BoB/39^th SG: OTT/9^th SG: ARG/41^st SG: P

Form: 6^th/3^rd/37^th/12^th/MC/8^th/1^st/MC

Course Fit Rank: 11^th

Notes: Obviously it’s better to target Webb on Bermuda tracks but he is having an insane year with another pair of back to back T6 finishes the last 2 weeks, he excels on par 70 courses, and despite his lack of distance off the tee, he more than makes up for it with his long iron game as seen by his rank of 9^th T2G in this field and 7^th in BoB

Fades

1) Rory McIlroy ($10,300) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 23^rd SG: T2G/15^th SG: APP/33^rd BoB/20^th SG: OTT/64^th SG: ARG/42^nd SG: P

Form: 65^th/33^rd/47^th/32^nd/11^th/41^st/32^nd

Course Fit Rank: 2^nd

Notes: Let’s make one thing clear, and I’ll say it a lot in these fades… THESE ARE ALL WORLD CLASS PLAYERS; Rory is a top 5 player in the world and has just looked like crap… he had a great APP week last week, gaining over 5, and it’s always scary to fade with his long term talent, but he even said he doesn’t feel the intensity right now, his putter is way off, and shocking he lost strokes OTT last week…

2) Collin Morikawa ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 22%

Key Stats: 17^th SG: T2G/19^th SG: APP/24^th BoB/4^th SG: OTT/45^th SG: ARG/23^rd SG: P

Form: MC/1^st/20^th/48^th/1^st/MC/64^th/2^nd

Course Fit Rank: 9^th

Notes: Purely an ownership fade and I would blame no one for playing him… I can’t play everyone and he’ll probably be the highest owned despite the missed cut last week; he’s elite T2G but it worries me slightly that he lost 4 strokes on APP last week and at least historically, his weakest asset is SG: ARG

Favorite Pivot

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 43^rd SG: T2G/69^th SG: APP/2^nd BoB/2^nd SG: OTT/65^th SG: ARG/10^th SG: P

Form: MC/4^th/30^th/MC/1^st/6^th/8^th/3^rd

Course Fit Rank: 26^th

Notes: Bryson torched me last week, along with many others, and although his stats are not great right now, he can lean so much on SG: OTT and despite a horrific week with the putter at TPC Boston, he’s one of the best putters in the world; I’m hoping since he burned people he comes in lower owned and can use his course knowledge (won the 2015 US Am.) to get things back on track

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Tony Finau ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 22^nd SG: T2G/34^th SG: APP/50^th BoB/19^th SG: OTT/58^th SG: ARG/25^th SG: P

Form: MC/4^th/65^th/3^rd/8^th/53^rd/MC/33^rd/23^rd

Course Fit Rank: 1^st

Notes: Well it’s the playoffs and here we are… FInau is a core play for me… we’ll see how this goes but he ranks 1^st in my course fit and if he hadn’t forgotten how to putt last week, he probably would have rattled off another T20 or better; he plays well in strong fields, is a bomber, is Top 5 in approaches of 175 or longer and maybe, just maybe, comes in lower owned than usual after a rare MC

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 19^th SG: T2G/9^th SG: APP/42^nd BoB/45^th SG: OTT/20h SG: ARG/56^th SG: P

Form: 29^th/22^nd/20^th/MC/22^nd/21^st/MC

Course Fit Rank: 6^th

Notes: Always sucks to trust him with how bad of a putter he is but he’s been fairly consistent with 4 T22s or better in 4 of his last 6 and has gained strokes T2G in every tournament in 2020 except one; despite being a miserable putter, he’s actually very strong ARG and if he putts average, his long approach game skill can lead him to a T5 or a victory

3) Matt Kuchar ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 51^st SG: T2G/29^th SG: APP/61^st BoB/38^th SG: OTT/46^th SG: ARG/17^th SG: P

Form: 18^th/MC/25^th/32^nd/39^th/41^st/MC

Course Fit Rank: 5^th

Notes: Normally an auto cash play all year always hovering around this price, I don’t think anyone is gonna play him due to his lack of high finishes… this is cheap, he still is solid on APP, and has gained SG: APP in 3 straight events; you can include him in a stars/scrubs lineup and he’s much more talented than a lot of guys, long term, in this range

Fades

1) Harris English ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 4^th SG: T2G/26^th SG: APP/4^th BoB/49^th SG: OTT/4^th SG: ARG/2^nd SG: P

Form: 2^nd/23^rd/19^th/18^th/13^th/17^th/MC

Course Fit Rank: 21^st

Notes: I don’t really much of anything bad to say about English… he’s been incredible and 9/10 weeks, he wins last week with a score of -19 (and doesn’t lose by 11), but this is just an ownership fade; elite field and is going to be insanely popular, and probably for good reason… I’ll pivot elsewhere and pray he doesn’t storm up for another Top 10

2) Kevin Kisner ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 16^th SG: T2G/12^th SG: APP/3^rd BoB/24^th SG: OTT/56^th SG: ARG/15^th SG: P

Form: 4^th/3^rd/19^th/25^th/MC/3^rd/MC/MC/29^th

Course Fit Rank: 36^th

Notes: Similar to English, Kisner kind of feels overpriced to me in this field and although I can’t argue with his last few finishes and APP game, he’s gained over 5 strokes putting in 5 straight tournaments.. he’s an elite putter, but if that goes away, I think at this price he would be tough to return value at a very possible T30 or worse finish

Favorite Pivot

1) Mark Hubbard ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Key Stats: 26^th SG: T2G/1^st SG: APP/23^rd BoB/57^th SG: OTT/59^th SG: ARG/36^th SG: P

Form: 29^th/15^th/51^st/72^nd/WD/12^th/37^th/33^rd/43^rd

Course Fit Rank: 45^th

Notes: Shoutout to Hubbard! (went to my old high school); Hubbs has been playing solid golf, gaining 4 strokes or more on APP in 3 straight tournaments and has continued to be a very consistent putter; I don’t see him being incredibly high owned and at this price we don’t need him to win…

OTHERS I LIKE: Tiger Woods/Kevin Na/Mackenzie Hughes

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Brendan Steele $6,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Quick Hits: No cut this week but still worth mentioning he’s made 6 straight cuts (consistency); great with his long irons and if he putts well, he has Top 15/Top 10 upside

2) Talor Gooch ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Quick Hits: 4 Top 25 finishes in his last 6 starts; ranks 20^th SG: APP, 20^th in BoB, and 18^th in SG: P

3) Joel Dahmen ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 5%

Quick Hits: Has a solid and consistent year and although cooling off lately and missing the cut by 1 last week, he’s super cheap and has 3 Top 20s and a Top 10 in his last 7 including a T10 at Harding Park; he also ranks 19^th in my course fit rank

4) Kevin Streelman ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Quick Hits: My man… has made 6 cuts in a row including a T7 and T2 a month ago… 24^th in SG: APP, Top 40 in SG: OTT, SG: T2G SG: ARG and despite the strong field, he feels way too cheap to me

Cash Game Options – NOTE: I DON’T PLAY CASH IN NO CUT EVENTS BUT HERE ARE SOME OPTIONS

1) Webb Simpson

2) Xander Schauffele

3) Daniel Berger

4) Tony Finau

5) Hideki Matsuyama

6) Tyrrell Hatton

7) Viktor Hovland

8) Matt Kuchar

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, and 10% of their Top 20 Odds

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Justin Thomas
3. Daniel Berger
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Jon Rahm
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Jason Day
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Webb Simpson
10. Harris English
11. Kevin Kisner
12. Ryan Palmer
13. Patrick Reed
14. Bryson DeChambeau
15. Jason Kokrak
16. Matthew Wolff
17. Tyrrell Hatton
18. Tony Finau
19. Russell Henley
20. Billy Horschel

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Daniel Berger

Jon Rahm

Collin Morikawa

Xander Schauffele

Dustin Johnson

OAD Pivots

Tiger Woods

Bryson DeChambeau

Adam Scott

Jason Day

Viktor Hovland

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