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Course: Stadium Course at PGA West/La Quinta CC/Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West

Fast Facts

• All 3 are Par 72 and average about 7,100 yards
• Pro-Am event that results in long rounds/easy pins; LQ and NC were 2 easiest on TOUR in 2019
• Greens: Bermuda
• Shotlink only available on Stadium so some course history data may be inaccurate
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut after Round 3, not Round 2
• Average Cut around -7 after 3 days; players who make the cut play Stadium Course on Sunday
• Average winning score around -25
• Corollary Courses: Pebble Beach Pro-Am/RSM Classic (Plantation), TPC Sawgrass/Harbour Town
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Ryan Moore/Phil Mickelson/Lucas Glover/Brian Harman/Jason Kokrak/Kevin Kisner/Vaughn Taylor

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 5/6 made cut; DK 6/6 made cut

GPP Results – See table below

Starting this season, and feel free to skip if you’re not interested, I will be writing a more in depth recap of not only the week ahead, but perhaps more importantly, what went into my thought process for both my cash game team (only 1 per week) and my main GPP team (I multi-enter each week but play my one “main” team in all multi entry/single entry/3 entry max, etc.). Last week was a very successful cash week as we had all 6/6 through the cut so never much of a sweat with the T65 cuts these days while my GPP team was looking fantastic for about 1.5 days, very solid for about 3.5 days and then not so great in the last hour of the tournament. And that my friends, is DFS Golf in a nutshell.

Cash: My cash build was fairly simple as I stuck to what I normally do no matter the field strength or type of tournament and that is to build a mostly balanced lineup. I love Justin Thomas and I’m pretty sure he makes that cut about 85-90 out of 100 times but despite hindsight being 20/20, I was never considering him for cash as it simply hinders way too much of your lineup. If you look at the 12k salary, that is 24% of your total salary cap and if you plug him in it only leaves you about 7.6k per player for the last 5. Not that there wasn’t good value in the 7k range, but since nothing is a guarantee, and at that price point, you MUST bank on JT finishing no worse than Top 5 at that price as well as having at least 3-4 of your remaining 5 players make the cut and finish probably Top 30 or better. Again, not impossible but when you break it out into probabilities it seems +EV to go balanced in cash. My “Must” plays, a strategy taken from Adam Levitan in DFS Football were Sungjae Im/Vaughn Taylor/Russell Knox. Sungjae is very consistent and makes a ton of birdies, Vaughn Taylor I felt was a serious value for this field, and Russell Knox was also too cheap combined with the ability to play in the expected adverse conditions. Joel Dahmen, I thought was too cheap and although some in our Discord were worried after Thursday’s round of his of +4, I knew he wasn’t THAT bad of a putter and he promptly turned it around for us. My last 2 I was debating on and I think I was lucky to be on the right side but Ryan Palmer ranked VERY well for me last week, #6 in my overall model and was someone who had played well at Waialae before and also was sneaky longer than many would realize so I thought it was a good setup. Man that 72^nd hole was brutal to watch… more on that later. With that salary I knew I could easily fit a top guy and the guy for me was Hideki who I didn’t think people would be on just because of his course history. He didn’t light the world on fire but despite how bad of a putter he is, and boy was he bad this week, he gives himself so many scoring opportunities and even though he’ll be out of a tournament, he racks up DK points, which is much more important for our purposes.

GPP: Sorry for the length above but I think more people are cash players by nature; however, I am always GPP minded so my builds can be a little more interesting here. For my main team over the last year or so, I have tried to make it more of a pivot off of some of my favorite overall plays and players on my cash team because you don’t want to fade ALL the chalk and if these guys are on your cash lineup that you’re probably putting across multiple contests, you most likely want some overlap. I used to fade most of my cash lineup in GPPs and while sometimes that works (i.e. you play an 80% Kuchar in cash, you’re OK if he misses most likely), it’s counter intuitive to root for that to happen. For my main team, I took 3 players from my cash team who I felt the strongest about for their UPSIDE, which were Knox/Im/Palmer. My next was Collin Morikawa who I knew would be chalk but I felt safer about his finish probability over Hideki because Morikawa, to me, was more likely to get a hot putter and finish in that Top 5 as opposed to Hideki. For my last 2 spots, I loved how Carlos Ortiz had been playing in the fall with multiple Top 10s and felt he was an awesome value at that price and would be lower owned, and he ended up around 10-12% in most contests. My last guy was Armour who was too cheap, and I thought set up perfectly for the course: great wedge player, hits a ton of fairways, and had finished in the Top 25 in 3 of his last 4 tournaments. Unfortunately, his putting was horrible, and he ended up missing the cut, giving me 5/6. The lineup was fine until a streak of unfortunate events happened, which included: Ortiz bogeying 4 holes on his final 9 to fall to a tie for 53^rd, Sungjae Im making a triple on his 3^rd to last hole to drop outside the Top 20, Ryan Palmer blasting one out of bounds on the 72^nd hole in which a birdie would have put him in a playoff, and Collin Morikawa 3 putting from 4 feet on the 72^nd hole to drop outside the Top 20. Phew, those were brutal to watch in real time. I liked the process and as I always tell many in our Discord, ownership is key in DFS Golf and for GPPs I always aim for about 70-90% total combined ownership… So it goes, and let’s get to this week’s event hosted by Phil Mickelson.

 

Course and Weather Notes: Full disclosure… this event is not the best. We only have shot tracker and shot link data on one of the courses, it is a pro-am, so the players are less focused, and the rounds are LONG… we’re talking possible 6+ hour rounds. I find myself saying this more and more the last few years, but it truly is a wedge/birdie fest here. The winning score will probably be -25 or lower as the pins will be set up very easy for the amateurs and all Par 5s across all 3 courses are easily reachable in 2 by just about the entire field. As I noted above, the Nicklaus and La Quinta courses were the easiest and 2^nd easiest of the 49 courses played on TOUR last year. Target those in Showdown if you’re playing, and if you’re interested in trends, winners normally start off playing La Quinta and finish Saturday/Sunday playing the Stadium Course both times. The weather is a total 180 from last week as it looks great all 4 days as of this writing and I expect guys to go very, very low. Adam Long basically broke every trend last year as he won in only his 6^th start at a MASSIVE betting number (between 500-600/1) but generally guys are in solid form with at least one Top 15 in their last several starts and, via Geoff Ulrich (contributor for DK), 6 of the last 7 winners (not Adam Long) had played the event at least once before their eventual win.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150 yards)/Overall Proximity
• BoB Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• Opportunities Gained (via FantasyNational – approaches hit to 15 feet or less)
• SG: Putting (emphasis on Bermuda)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Sungjae Im ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 21%; Another week of DFS and other week of Im as a core play; I thought with the elevated price tag he would get less buzz but it looks like he’ll end up as mega chalk and that’s fine; poor putting last week kept from a better finish but he’s Top 10 in BoB, putting on Bermuda, SG: BS, SG: Par 5s, and finished 12^th last year in his debut… love it

2) Jason Kokrak ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 14%; We haven’t seen him since the fall swing but he did finish 8^th at the WGC – HSBC for what it’s worth… Kokrak burns me more than the average player but I love him in this spot as he ranks 5^th in SG: BS and Top 30 in the SG: APP range, SG: Par 5s, and Opportunities Gained; he’s played this event many times and in the last 2 years has a T8 and T18; if he can putt around average he is very much a contender this week… core play

Fades

1) Scottie Scheffler ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 20%; His game is awesome but I feel like Scheffler went from rookie to mega chalk every week in an unbelievably short amount of time… hasn’t played in several weeks, like most, and his last 3 finishes were 5^th/18^th/3^rd, which is strong, but at this price and projected top 3 owned on the slate I think I’ll pivot somewhere else… first time playing here as well

2) Tony Finau ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Figures to be chalky as always is since people just love playing him but he’s coming off a T5 finish in Hong Kong this past week (how does he not win in that field by the way…), which is a tough travel schedule… always an elite ball striker, Finau is ranked #1 in SG: BS but ranks outside the Top 100 in the filed in BoB Gained and SG: Par 5s, while obviously not rating out well on Bermuda greens (by far his worst putting surface); fade at this price

Favorite Pivot

1) Rickie Fowler ($11,500) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Seems weird to put Rickie in the pivot category but honestly I think the pricing will be spread out for the most part above 9k and since Rickie is normally 20+% owned I think we can put him here… hasn’t played a ton so his stats won’t come up in standard models but I like him for a few reasons here: his price tag will keep some away, his last 2 finishes are 5^th and 9^th, and I don’t see the pro-am format bothering him as he’s so popular that he’s used to heavy media/fan attention; he’s a very strong Bermuda putter so if he can get his wedges dialed in there’s no reason he can’t win (he is the favorite after all)

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Vaughn Taylor ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Going to end up being very popular due to his price but he currently ranks #1 in my overall model for the week… can’t fade my #1 guy even he runs the risk of being bad chalk; Taylor ranks 33^rd in SG: BS, 14^th in SG: APP, 17^th in SG: Putting, 3^rd in Opportunities Gained, 3^rd in BoB Gained, and has 3 finishes in a row of T12 or better; further, he’ll get even a bigger bump since he finished 7^th last year… chalk or not I think he’s a core play in all formats

2) Carlos Ortiz ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 12%: Another guy getting more buzz than I’d like but he’s much too cheap as well; I’ve actually already bet Ortiz at 125/1 as he had a fantastic fall swing and if he hadn’t lost a combined 4.2 strokes around-the-green and putting last week, which seems like an anomaly, he would have had another Top 20 or better I think… 1^st in DK points over his last 5 events in this field, 26^th in SG: BS, 30^th in SG: Par 5s, 4^th in BoB Gained, 36^th in Opportunities Gained, and 40^th in Putting on Bermuda and only $7,200… I like this as an awesome value play

Fades

1) Phil Mickelson ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Yeah, I know his course history is great and he can pop at any time, but he hasn’t been playing, has been declining in play, and now has the media obligations of being host of the tournament… hard pass for me especially at this price…

2) Lucas Glover ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Glover always gets some buzz and I get why here as his course fit is high and he’s made 5 straight cuts that includes 3 T17s or better; however, Glover hasn’t played in a while, is a horrible putter on Bermuda, and ranks 103^rd in SG: APP, 97^th in Par 5s, and 81^st in BoB Gained… not worth it at all at that price or his potential of being mid-tier chalk

Favorite Pivot

1) Danny Lee ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 3%; Probably the first time Danny Lee has ever been in my article as something other than a fade… full disclosure, Danny Lee hates me and I hate him because every time I play him he blows up and when I fade its vice versa; however, this week no one will own him and he makes as a great GPP leverage play as he pops out of nowhere; he ranks 17^th in SG: S, 7^th in BoB Gained, 40^th in SG: Par 5s, and 45^th in SG: APP which isn’t bad when considering his price… impressively, Lee has LOST strokes putting in his last 8 events and 12 of his last 14… regression coming?

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Kevin Streelman ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 3%; I love Streelman and always play him; he’s consistent, has played here 9 of the last 10 years with 3 Top 11 or better finishes, and when he gets a hot putter, he has the ability to make birdies in bunches

2) Bronson Burgoon ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 4%; I definitely play Burgoon about 10x more than the average DFS Golf player but he makes so many birdies and has so many eagle opportunities it’s hard not to… just need a made cut at this price and he ranks 30^th in the SG: APP range, 35^th in Opportunities Gained, and 6^th in BoB Gained…

3) Steve Stricker ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 2%: Hasn’t played in forever I just like him as a punt whose actual odds to finish Top 20 are wayyyyyy higher than his price; could shoot +20 or -20…

4) Josh Teater ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: 1%: 42^nd in SG: BS, 27^th in SG: APP, 25^th in Par 5s, 29^th in Opportunities Gained, 43^rd in BoB gained, and made the cut here last year… could do much worse

Cash Game Plays

1) Jason Kokrak

2) Vaughn Taylor

3) Rory Sabbatini

4) Carlos Ortiz

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Vaughn Taylor
2. Sungjae Im
3. Cameron Tringale
4. Paul Casey
5. Kevin Kisner
6. Brendan Steele
7. Henrik Norlander
8. Scottie Scheffler
9. Billy Horschel
10. Danny Lee
11. Carlos Ortiz
12. Charles Howell III
13. Abraham Ancer
14. Jason Kokrak
15. Byeong Hun An

Betting/One and Done

Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Paul Casey

Sungjae Im

Tony Finau

Phil Mickelson

Brian Harman

OAD Pivots

Jason Kokrak

Billy Horschel

Abraham Ancer

Harris English

Rory Sabbatini