All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Not the most exciting tournament of the year last week as the WGC saw Brooks win his 2^nd title of the season, a rare non-major, in a pretty carefree setting on Sunday. Rory had the lead coming in but sputtered with the flat stick all day, stumbling to a +1 71 while Brooks shot his 4^th straight round in the 60s, and won easily over Webb by 3 strokes. Not a tremendous week for me in the DFS space as I did not have any shares of Brooks, coupled with quite a bit of exposure to Keegan, Max Homa, and Kevin Tway, whom amongst their 12 total rounds, only mustered 2 rounds in the 60s… not good. We’re at the last full field event of the “regular season” on the TOUR and get a weaker but not totally disastrous field to close out the season… onto the Wyndham.

Course: Sedgefield Country Club, Greensboro, NC

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7,127 yards
• Donald Ross Design that’s remained mostly unchanged since its creation
• Greens: Bermuda running around 11.5-12 on the stimp (average for the TOUR)
• Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft. (average for the TOUR)
• Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut with an MDF if more than 78 after R2
• Average winning score around -20
• Average cut line around -2
• High GIR rate (71% here vs. the TOUR average of around 65%)
• Low scores easy to come by (Sneds fired a 59 in R1 last year)
• Only 2 Par 5s but the birdie or better rate on each is 53% and 62%
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Webb Simpson, Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Kyle Stanley, Ryan Armour

Course and Weather Notes: As will be present below in the key stats, there are 8 Par 4s here between 400-450 yards with 2 more being over 500 yards and both Par 5s being reachable for almost all the field… this means I would target the 150-200 range heavily for approach distances while also putting a premium on Par 5 scoring as the BoB% is extremely high. We need birdie makers as the winning score should land between -17 to -22 as well as those who can hit fairways as I believe 8 of the last 10 winners all ranked in the Top 15 or better for the week in driving accuracy. Per the weather, I see almost no wind but it will be hot and humid and there are chances for thunderstorms each day… we will have to monitor but I assume there shouldn’t be too many delays.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards)
• BoB Gained/Opps. Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• GIRs Gained
• Fairways Gained
• SG: Par 4s 40-450 yards

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Patrick Reed ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 18%; Sure to be chalky but Reed has really turned his form around over the last 6 weeks-2 months and now finds himself tied with Webb as #1 in my overall model; Reed comes in ranked 9^th in SG: BS, 1^st in Par 4s 400-450, 8^th in SG: Par 5s, and 17^th in BoB/Opps. Gained; per his form, he’s made 20 of his last 22 cuts, including his last 6 that saw a T10 at the British Open, a 5^th at the 3M Open, and a 12^th last week at the WGC; he hasn’t played here since 2016, but has made all 4 cuts and in 2013 got his first win at Sedgefield; lock and load 40-50% for me

2) Joaquin Niemann ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Another potential chalk play but that will be tough for me to avoid… I’m hoping we can get lower ownership as people see his most recent tournament was a MC at the British but forget that he made 7 cuts in a row prior and posted a Top 10 and 2 Top 5s in that same span… per his stats, Niemann ranks 4^th in SG: BS, 7^th in the SG: APP range, 13^th in Par 4s 400-450, 10^th in SG: Par 5s, and 9^th in BoB/Opps. Gained; we all know his Achilles heal is his putter so if he can just putt average or above he should post another very solid finish

Fades

1) Webb Simpson ($11,200) → Projected Ownership: 22%; Currently projected for the highest owned on the slate, this is strictly a game theory play because I think Webb is a fantastic play and ranks #1 in my model; however, if he were to finish outside the Top 5 (I’ve now guaranteed a win), we can definitely get leverage on his ownership and find better values than the only guy above 11k… His course history is pretty immaculate, but his fairways haven’t been as tremendous this year so maybe that affects him?

2) Jordan Spieth ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Still not striking the ball whatsoever as he ranks 122^nd in the field in SG: BS, 110^th in the SG: APP range, 110^th in GIRs Gained, and 127^th in Fairways Gained… Spieth has now lost strokes on approaches in 7 of his last 9 tournaments since the Masters while having GAINED strokes putting in 7 of those 9… once he’s not making everything his scores could shoot up like crazy…

Favorite Pivot

Matthew Wolff ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Wolff was the first of these young guns to win and despite having won in the more competitive field than Morikawa and having gained approaches his last 4 events he’s projected for under 10% while Hovland/Morikawa are each projected for 15%+… there aren’t a ton of rounds of data on any of them but we’ve seen Wolff make birdies in bunches, is the cheapest of the bunch, and is a tremendous striker of the ball… he’s definitely worth 15-20%

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Adam Hadwin ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 12%; He’s had quite the mixed year with a rough start to the beginning and hasn’t had a ton of quality finishes but Hadwin’s stats line up perfectly for this course: 13^th in SG: BS, 21^st in the SG: APP range, 18^th in Par 4s 400-450, 27^th in GIRs/Par 5s/Fairways, and 3^rd in BoB/Opps. Gained… I’m hoping his elevated price keeps some people off but I think he could find himself in contention come the weekend

2) Kevin Streelman ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Write him up every week and he keeps performing so why stop now? Streels ranks 10^th in SG: BS, 14^th in SG: APP range, 10^th in Par 4s 400-450, 1^st in GIRs Gained, and 13^th in BoB/Opps. Gained… hasn’t missed a cut since the Valspar in March and until the British, hadn’t lost strokes on his approaches in that same span… WOW. Man this guy is a free square and I’ll be loading up in all formats

3) Kyle Stanley ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Here’s a guy who lets me down just about every time I play him so watch out, but if Stanley could just find the putter… he ranks 12^th in SG: BS, 13^th in SG: APP, 8^th in GIRs Gained, 6^th in SG: Par 5s, 6^th in Fairways Gained, and 26^th in BoB/Opps. Gained… his form has picked up as well as he’s made 5 straight cuts, which includes 2 Top 21 finishes; I’m hoping he doesn’t get chalky due to his weak putter and weak course history, but I like him a lot here…
Fades

1) Sungjae Im ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 14%; Not particularly interested in eating this chalk as this man LITERALLY plays every week, how is he not tired?? He ranks 116^th in my SG: APP range this week, 60^th in SG: BS, 83^rd in GIRs Gained, 55^th in Fairways, and 86^th in BoB/Opps. Gained and has posted fine, but not spectacular form… pass

2) Jason Kokrak ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 11%; Understand the desire to play him here as he’s priced down for this field and he had a nice run earlier in the season but his stats aren’t great for here, ranking 89^th in Par 4s 400-450, 80^th in GIRs Gained, and 109^th in Fairways Gained… his recent form leaves a lot to be desired as well as he hasn’t posted a Top 25 or better finish since the PGA Championship in May… seems like an easy fade for me with better options both above and below him

Favorite Pivot

Martin Kaymer ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 6%; I think we’ll see a Lucas Glover mega-chalk week, which will burn me whether or not I play him but either way I think Kaymer is a fantastic pivot… ranks in the 140s in the FedEx Cup so needs a high finish to make next week’s tournament; has really turned around his form, making 7 straight cuts and saw a Top 3 finish at the Memorial in June and a 9^th at the Irish Open a few weeks ago; his stats are decent as well, ranking 1^st in SG: Par 5s, 26^th in SG: BS, 20^th in SG: APP, and 11^th in BoB/Opps. Gained… I think we can trust his long-term form and take a solid amount of leverage off the chalk around him

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Adam Hadwin ($8,500), Martin Laird ($7,900), Sepp Straka ($7,700), Jason Dufner ($7,500), Vaughn Taylor ($7,400), Brice Garnett ($7,100)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Andrew Landry ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 5%; A hit or miss guy that fits the type of player we’re looking for: Landry ranks 17^th in SG: APP, 2^nd in Par 4s 400-450, 10^th in Fairways Gained, and 25^th in BoB/Opps. Gained and is sub 7k with 5% or lower ownership; he can get streaky and go on birdie runs so I like having 10-12% exposure in GPPs this week

2) Nick Taylor ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 4%; Needs a good finish to qualify for the FedEx Cup and has average/above average stats: 45^th in SG: BS, 44^th in SG: APP, 31^st in Par 4s 400-450, 12^th in GIRs Gained… nothing amazing but for his price, we don’t need a Top 5 finish; Taylor comes in with decent form, making 4 straight cuts, including a T15 2 weeks ago at the Barbasol while quietly finishing 8^th at this event last year… 5-10% exposure for me

3) Adam Svensson ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 3%; Another dart play here but Svensson ranks 8^th in the field in SG: BS, 9^th in SG: APP, 11^th in GIRs Gained, 31^st in SG: Par 5s, 20^th in Fairways Gained, and 38^th in BoB/Opps. Gained… obviously volatile but a few shares of him allows a ton of flexibility with the rest of your lineup and we’re really just looking for a made cut with upside; will target around 10%

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Patrick Reed

2) Joaquin Niemann

3) Kevin Streelman

4) Vaughn Taylor

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Webb Simpson
2. Patrick Reed
3. Chez Reavie
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Paul Casey
6. Lucas Glover
7. Joaquin Niemann
8. Billy Horschel
9. Vaughn Taylor
10. Collin Morikawa
11. Rory Sabbatini
12. Brian Harman
13. Adam Hadwin
14. Martin Kaymer
15. Kevin Streelman

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Martin Kaymer: 50/1

Kyle Stanley: 100/1

Adam Svensson Top 10: 22/1

Ryan Armour Top 20: +475

Nick Taylor Top 20: +375

Vaughn Taylor Top 20: +310

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Webb/Spieth/Reed/Snedeker/Horschel/Reavie

Possible Pivots:

Niemann

Hadwin

Piercy

Stanley

Streelman