All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Quail Hollow

 

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7554 yards
• Greens: Bermuda (Very fast; probably about 12-12.5 on the stimp)
• Average Green Size: 6500 sq. ft. (about average for the TOUR)
• Home to the “Green Mile,” the hardest 3 hole close on TOUR; holes 1-15 play about -1500 under par combined since 2003, while holes 16-18 play over +6000 OVER par
• Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut
• 18 Hole Stroke Average: 72.14
• Driving Accuracy significantly lower than the TOUR average (50% here vs. 61% TOUR Average)
• Distance not required, but definitely favors the bombers
• Course was redesigned prior to 2017 PGA Championship (Tom Fazio redid 4 holes)
• Average Cutline: +2 or +3

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

• SG: BS – 25%
• SG: OTT – 20%
• SG: APP Blend (175+ yards) – 15%
• BoB Gained – 15%
• SG: Par 5s – 10%
• Driving Distance Gained – 5%
• SG: Putting Blend – 5%
• Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance – 5%

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

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Studs ($9K+)

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,800) → Projected Ownership: 22%; Only legitimate argument to fade here would be for ownership… Rory ranks #1 in my stat model (not even close), #1 in recent form, and only 2^nd in course history to Phil. No one is hotter and it will be very difficult to see myself with less than 30-40%

2) Rickie Fowler ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 16%; Rickie has obviously won here before so clearly likes the course, but he’s also an elite long iron player (7^th in my model), makes a ton of birdies, and is someone I trust to handle these very fast greens. Form wise, Rickie is coming off a Top 10 at the Masters (also with lightning fast greens) and trying to get reps to capture his first major. I think Rickie could win this week and I will have about 30-40% exposure.

Fades

1) Jason Day ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 15%; I simply can’t play everyone and at this price, it’s either Day or Rory… I choose Rory. Day can always just WD and even though he’s coming off the win here last year and a 5^th at the Masters a few weeks ago, I will take Rory’s form.

2) Phil Mickelson ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Hard to argue with his history here because it’s insane but at the elevated price, you need a definite Top 10 at least to pay off the price and with the mega-chalk incoming along with Phil’s tendency to play a course like this as “practice” for a major and not to grind out a win makes me OK with a fade here. If chalk Phil burns me, I’m ok with that.

Favorite Pivot

Webb Simpson ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%; I have his ownership projected at 13% but I really think it could be even lower than that. I will buy into the hometown narrative (Webb lives a few minutes from here) and hope that people stay off because he isn’t a long hitter whatsoever; however, Webb ranks #1 for me in Bogey Avoidance, 13^th in SG: T2G, and 22^nd in the SG: APP blend. He doesn’t need to bomb the ball because he can get dialed in with the long irons and if he goes under 15%, I think it’s worth being at least field average or slightly above.

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Mid-Tier ($7K-8.9K)

Plays

1) Jhonattan Vegas ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 13%; A little frustrating that he’s being talked up and has the potential to get chalky but Vegas has made his last 5 cuts, including a 3^rd at the Players, and while he hasn’t torn this course up, he is a serious bomber of the ball, and ranks 10^th in the field in SG: T2G, 8^th in SG: Par 5s, 2^nd in SG: OTT, and 17^th in BoB. He’s got all the facets you need to compete, we’ll see if he doesn’t get too chalk…

2) Keith Mitchell ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%; He’s starting to pick up buzz due to his solid Bermuda putting splits but I like Mitchell to contend once again as he’s back on Bermuda and seems to compete in stronger fields. Mitchell ranks 9^th SG: T2G, 8^th in SG: BS, 10^th in SG: Par 5s, 4^th in SG: OTT, 8^th in BoB, and 6^th in Driving Distance Gained. His ownership could be mitigated slightly by his below average last few starts but we can’t forget he held off both Brooks and Rickie at Honda and followed it up with a 6^th place the next week. I like Killa Keith and will target at least 20% exposure.

3) Sam Burns ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Burns has been playing way better than most would realize as his last 3 starts are: 12^th, 23^rd, and 9^th, and it’s backed by some of our key stats for the course: he ranks 13^th in SG: Par 5s, 8^th in Driving Distance Gained, 23^rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 2^nd in the SG: Putting Blend. We know that Burns is a much better Bermuda putter and although I’ve heard some buzz I don’t see him getting over 10-12% and I’m fine going overweight at 15-20%.

Fades

1) Jason Kokrak ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Setting up to be chalk once again and who could blame the masses? All Kokrak’s stats check out and, in any generator/optimizer he’s going to pop but I think his run has to end sometime and even though he’s a bomber, he has not fared well here whatsoever with a MC in his last 3 starts at Quail Hollow and a 23^rd in 2014 his best finish. Pass this week.

2) Lucas Glover ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Well I never get him right, so I would jump onboard since I’m fading but I’m not letting a chalk and way overpriced Glover get me again for what seems like the 10^th time this year. Glover always ranks out well stats wise but he’s 80^th in the SG: Putting blend, 100^th in Driving Distance Gained, and although he won here several years ago, he has 3 MCs since then. I am fine letting him burn me for the umpteenth time this week.

Favorite Pivot

Adam Hadwin ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 5%; His form has been awful so I don’t expect much ownership at all, but Hadwin actually ranks 7^th in the field for me in SG: OTT, 7^th in SG: Par 5s, 31^st in BoB, and 47^th in Driving Distance Gained. He hasn’t posted a solid finish in quite some time but did finish 16^th here last year and if he is going to be 5% or less, I’m willing to take a shot in a lineup or two and be overweight the field.

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Low Tier (Sub $7K)

Plays

1) Carlos Ortiz ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 2%; Ortiz is extremely inconsistent as he seemingly bounces between huge MC by a million to finishing well; i.e. 9^th at the Genesis, MC, 29^th at the Arnold Palmer, etc.; however, stats wise, he ranks 20^th in the field in SG: OTT, 37^th in Driving Distance Gained, 49^th in SG: T2G, and 39^th in SG: Par 5s. Are those amazing? No. But at this price and ownership, simply owning 5% of him will put you 2x the field and I think that’s worth it.

Fades

1) Vaughn Taylor ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 5%; People will play him since they need to get down here if they pay up for Rory and Taylor is normally pretty consistent and a name that people realize. Vaughn obviously doesn’t hit the ball very far and hasn’t played very well at Quail Hollow since 2013. Pass for me.

Favorite Pivot

Sepp Straka ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 1.5%; Drop down from Vaughn and take a flier on Sepp Straka. He crushes the ball and although he hasn’t been around very long on TOUR, he ranks 24^th in BoB, 33^rd in Driving Distance Gained, and 32^nd in the SG: APP Blend. Over his last 5 and 10 tournaments he’s averaged around 51 DK Points and at this price, those points and a made cut is all we’re asking for, not to mention owning 5% puts you massively overweight the field.

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Tony Finau

2) Byeong Hun An

3) Jhonattan Vegas

4 Keith Mitchell

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jason Day
3. Rickie Fowler
4. Paul Casey
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Tony Finau
7. Justin Rose
8. Webb Simpson
9. Jason Kokrak
10. Jhonattan Vegas
11. Byeong Hun An
12. Sungjae Im
13. Sergio Garcia
14. Charles Howell III
15. Gary Woodland

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Betting + One & Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Keith Mitchell 80/1

Aaron Wise 70/1

Wyndham Clark Top 10 12/1

Harold Varner III Top 10 14/1

Michael Thompson Top 20 4/1

Carlos Ortiz Top 20 8/1