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All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas, NV

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7255 Yards
• Designed by Bobby Weed (Lol) in 1991
• Played at a slight altitude (2000 above sea level) so shorter hitters are all live here
• Fairways somewhat tough to hit (55% on average); rough not penal whatsoever
• GIR % is VERY high at about 72% compared to the TOUR average of about 65%
• Greens: Bent running around 11.5 on the stimp (average for the TOUR)
• Average Green Size: 7,600 sq. ft. (LARGE)
• Field: 156 players; NEW CUT RULE: NO MDF; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average Cut around -1
• Average winning score around -18
• 3 Par 5s with a combined 46% BoB rate
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Rory Sabbatini, Harold Varner III, Collin Morikawa

Course and Weather Notes: Should be scorching hot in Vegas this week and we get another not half bad field due to these new schedule changes where Brooks is back, along with his brother Chase, Cantlay, Adam Scott, Bryson (defending champion), Webb, Finau, Matsuyama, and Gary Woodland, among others; this course as noted above plays slightly above sea level, not to the effect of Mexico which is several thousand, but some of the shorter hitters should have no problem getting to the Par 5s in two… this is a classic, and in my opinion far too common, bomb and gauge so we want elite wedge players, a slight bump to bombers, and guys who put well on Bentgrass; obviously BoB % and T2G reigns supreme as the winning score should be around -18 to -20

YTD Results (Cash)

DK = 0-2

FD = 1-1

1. Greenbrier – N/A
2. Sanderson Farms
   1. DK: Score = 398 (NO CASH) – Scheffler/V. Taylor/Wise/Streelman/Redman/Straka
   2. FD: Score = 479.6 (CASH) – Poston/V. Taylor/Conners/Wise/Burgoon/Streelman
3. Safeway
   1. DK: Score = 253 (NO CASH) – Hideki/Snedeker/Stanley/Hoge/Tringale/Streelman
   2. FD: Score = 276.20 (NO CASH) – JT/Hideki/Snedeker/Streelman/Piercy/Moore

GPP Results

1. Greenbrier: 7/15 made the cut; 2 core plays in Top 7; picked the winner
2. Sanderson Farms: 12/16 made the cut, 3 core plays in Top 6; picked the winner
3. Safeway: 12/19 made the cut; 1 cor eplay in Top 7, 1 in Top 13; did not have the winner

 

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 50-125/200+ yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)
• Driving Blend
• SG: Par 5s
• Scrambling

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Tony Finau ($9,800) → Projected Ownership: 20%; Not typically a Finau guy but this seems like the type of track/tournament where maybe he’ll FINALLY win a non-alternate event… his last 5 starts include a 10^th, 7^th, and 4^th, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the Travelers in June; further, he’s actually played this event 5 years in a row, never missed the cut, and holds a 7^th and 2 T16 finishes; #1 in the field in T2G, 4^th in the Driving Blend, 12^th in BoB, and his best putting surface is Bent… I’ll eat the chalk with Finau this week for sure

2) Collin Morikawa ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 18%; Some more chalk I’m definitely eating in this range but even in his short PGA Tour career Morikawa has been beyond impressive… in his 9 tournaments from the RBC Canadian till last week he’s gained strokes on APP in 8/9, has a win, 2 Top 5s, and a Top 10… 21^st in SG: APP, 19^th in T2G, 22^nd in the Driving Blend, and 35^th in BoB I also like an outright on him to win this week…

Fades

1) Webb Simpson ($10,200) → Projected Ownership: 15%; He will probably troll me but I like a lot of guys around him more this week… we haven’t seen Webb in a while and per his stats (take with a grain of salt since he’s taken a break), he ranked 98^th in T2G, 128^th in the Driving Blend, and 72^nd in BoB Gained… he’s had a lot of success at TPC Summerlin with a win in 2013 and 2 Top 5 finishes in the last 10 years but he’s coming off of a 6 week layoff so I’ll wait till he’s in a normal schedule

2) Bryson DeChambeau ($10,700) → Projected Ownership: 11%; Fading another former winner here but we saw Bryson leading last week only to fall back to 13^th and not hit much value at all… he ranks 120^th in SG: APP, 118^th in SG: Par 5s, and 108^th in BoB Gained… he’s played well here the last 2 years but in his last 8 starts he only has 1 Top 10, and it was in a weak field… I’ll fade the slow man

Favorite Pivot

Brandt Snedker ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 7%; People will keep fading Snedeker and I’m not sure why… he hasn’t played GREAT but he’s 2^nd in the field in SG: Putting on Bent, 8^th in Scrambling, and although he hasn’t had his best stuff on approaches (60^th in the field), you don’t need much to go overweight the field in a few GPPs and will get away from the chalk that will form around Byeong Hun An/Hadwin/Niemann… I think he’s worth 10-15% in GPP only

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) J.T. Poston ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 12%; I’m going to keep playing Poston each week and hope that he goes under the radar because he finished 11^th 2 weeks ago, 16^th before that, and 2 tournaments before that he had a win… he ranks 24^th in T2G, 1th in SG: Par 5s, 29^th in SG: Putting on Bent, and 13^th in BoB… I think he’s trying to rack up some solid points and finishes in the early season and although he can be streaky, I like him as a solid GPP play

2) Rory Sabbatini ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 8.5%: The real Rory GOAT is back! Sabbs had an awesome 2018-2019 season as he only missed ONE cut from the Honda in February through the BMW and has gained positive SG: APP in every tournament but one since the U.S. Open and I’m hoping his poor finishes at Summerlin will keep ownership low; I like Sabbs in all formats this week as he ranks 18^th in T2G, 9^th in SG: APP, 4^th in SG: Par 5s, and 28^th in BoB at way too low of a price…

Fades

1) Lucas Glover ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 7%; This price doesn’t make much sense to me… he’s 123^rd in the field in SG: T2G, 118^th in SG: APP, 117^th in Par 5 scoring, 77^th in SG: Putting on Bent, 77^th in BoB Gained, and 112^th in Scrambling… missed his last 2 cuts and despite finishing 7^th and 3^rd at TPC Summerlin the last 2 years had 3 MC before that… I think fade

2) Scott Piercy ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Phew… a chalky Piercy has worked just approximately 0% of the time and this is an easy fade for me… yes he’s a resident in the area and has great course history, but he also ranks 55^th in T2G, 65^th in Par 5s, 70^th in my Driving Blend, and 99^th in BoB Gained… only 1 Top 20 finish in his last 5 starts, and in a weak field; no thanks

Favorite Pivot

Jason Kokrak, Nick Taylor, Cameron Percy, Lucas Bjerregaard → Projected Ownership: 1-8%; Instead of just one guy this week there’s a lot I like so I thought I would list them above and an ownership range for all… my favorites of the main listed are Nick Taylor and Cameron Percy

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Harry Higgs ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 4%; Still relatively new to the TOUR, Higgs has had some solid finishes with 4 Top 23rds or better in his last 5 starts… a great driver of the ball, he ranks 5^th in the Driving Blend while also ranking 18^th in BoB Gained… he’s 60^th in T2G, which isn’t terrible for his price, and somewhat average across other stats; I like him as a 5-10% GPP play

2) Matt Jones ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 2%; He had some buzz a couple weeks ago and screwed people by WD so his ownership should be LOW; he ranks 11^th in T2G, 33^rd in SG: APP, 33^rd in Par 5 scoring, 43^rd in SG: Putting on Bent, 37^th in the Driving Blend, and 19^th in Scrambling… I would say those are pretty solid for a 6600 guy… he’s definitely up and down and can bust, but he does have 2 Top 10s in his last 5 starts… along with a WD and a MC… he’s worth some shots I think

 

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Tony Finau

2) Brian Harman

3) Aaron Wise

4) Rory Sabbatini

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Tony Finau
2. Brooks Koepka
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Adam Scott
5. T. Poston
6. Jason Kokrak
7. Sebastian Munoz
8. Brian Harman
9. Joaquin Niemann
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Cameron Percy
12. Bronson Burgoon
13. Scottie Scheffler
14. Webb Simpson
15. Lanto Griffin

Betting

Betting insights Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Brian Harman: 66/1

Collin Morikawa: 25/1

J.T. Poston: 66/1

Harry Higgs Top 10: 16/1

Rory Sabbatini Top 10: 7/1

Doc Redman Top 20: 7/1