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All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Silverado Resort & Spa (North Course)

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7166 Yards
• Designed by Robert Trent Jones but fully redone by Johnny Miller in 2011
• Fairways somewhat tough to hit (55% on average); rough not penal but is tree-lined
• Greens: Poa running around 12 on the stimp (average for the TOUR)
• Average Green Size: 6,200 sq. ft. (average)
• Field: 156 players; NEW THING YEAR: NO MDF; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average Cut around -1
• Average winning score around -15 or -16
• Four Par 5s this week, which has become a rarity on the TOUR… 40% BoB rate on average
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Brandt Snedeker, Brendan Steele (2-time winner), Ryan Moore, Jim Furyk, Harold Varner, Danny Lee

Course and Weather Notes: Quite a stronger field than I expected or have seen at this tournament before as several studs make the trek to Napa, including JT, Cantlay, Scott, Hideki, Bryson, Molinari, and Collin Morikawa (new stud) … This event should be a birdie fest with an emphasis being put on fairways as the rough won’t kill you but you could end up dead in one of the many trees that surround all the fairways; Similar approach ranges as the last couple weeks as guys with their wedges (75-125 yards) as well as those who can stick long approaches (200+) for eagle chances should succeed… I would place some emphasis on scrambling as well as that has correlated to success over the last 5 years… The weather looks great thus far (only Tuesday) and it should be a great tournament!

YTD Results (Cash)

DK = 0-1

FD = 1-0

1. Greenbrier – N/A
2. Sanderson Farms
   1. DK: Score = 398 (NO CASH) – Scheffler/V. Taylor/Wise/Streelman/Redman/Straka
   2. FD: Score = 479.6 (CASH) – Poston/V. Taylor/Conners/Wise/Burgoon/Streelman

GPP Results

1. Greenbrier: 7/15 made the cut; 2 core plays in Top 7; picked the winner
2. Sanderson Farms: 12/16 made the cut, 3 core plays in Top 6; picked the winner

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 75-125/200+ yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)
• Fairways Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• Scrambling

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 17.5%; Sure to be high owned but Hideki is my favorite player in the field this week… always an elite ball striker he’s 4^th in SG: T2G, 8^th in BoB Gained, 11^th in Scrambling, and to the shock of me and probably everyone, his putting has been somewhat positive and consistent lately… when I look at his baseline putting, he averages about 0.1 SG: P gained per round over his last 100 and over his last 12 he’s gaining 0.4 per round and 0.5 over his last 8 rounds… spectacular? No, but good for him and I like him to win this week or come Top 5 or better…

2) Brandt Snedeker ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 10.5%; Played pretty poorly last week, especially on Sunday so maybe that keeps his ownership down? Sneds ranks 18^th in SG: Putting this week as he excels on Poa (5 of his 9 wins have come on Poa), and 13^th in Scrambling; he’s gained over 2.7 strokes on the field in SG: APP over his last 5 of 9 events and I expect a bounce back after a -4 SG: APP last week; he finished 2^nd here last year and 17^th a few years prior so I think he’s a safe play with upside in all formats

Fades

1) Francesco Molinari ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 8%; He seems like an attractive option on paper as he hits a ton of fairways and get super-hot with the putter but it really seems ever since his meltdown at Augusta on Sunday he hasn’t been himself… he’s coming from overseas and per his stats, ranks 100^th in SG: T2G, 73^rd in SG: APP, 93^rd in SG: Par 5s, and 131^st in BoB Gained… I’ll gladly fade and if he gets a hot putter I’ll take the loss

2) Chez Reavie ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 16%; Not sure I understand all the buzz for Reavie but he’s one of those guys like Lucas Glover who I always fade if they’re chalk… Chez is a great driver as he ranks #1 in Fairways Gained in the field; however, he also ranks 41^st in T2G, 130^th in SG: Par 5s, and 134^th in Scrambling… he’s a decent putter on Poa and strong SG: APP player from our key ranges but at that price I don’t think he hits value and I think there’s better pivot options around him

Favorite Pivot

Kevin Na ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%; I think most guys about 9K will have ownership but if you look at Na in an optimizer, etc. he won’t put as he had an injury that kept him out and hasn’t played a ton; he does have great success at this course, with a T7 and T2 in 2 of 3 starts and while I’m still unsure about his injury, I’m not sure why he would tee it up if he didn’t feel good; per his stats, he hits a lot of fairways, is a strong Poa putter and hits a lot of greens… maybe take 15% and hope to double the field in GPPs?

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Corey Conners ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Perfect buy back spot here after Conners was high owned last week and screwed people… always funny when people are shocked that a bad putter putted… badly; that’s what Conners does but he’s still such an elite ball striker, ranking 8^th in T2G, 13^th in SG: APP, and 18^th in Fairways Gained… he will need to putt average and score better on Par 5s but if he’s under 10% owned that seems like a place to load up as his 5 starts before his MC he finished no worse than 27^th and had a T7 at the loaded field at the BMW Championship

2) Dylan Frittelli ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%: Gaining a little buzz unfortunately but I love Dylan this week; his stats are great, ranking 4^th in T2G, 6^th in SG: APP, 21^st in BoB, 27^th in Scrambling, and Top 35 or better in Fairways Gained and SG: Par 5s… coming off a week where he led the field in SG: APP by THREE shots (11) but faltered on the greens, I think Frittelli stays in form; he won his first PGA event 6 starts ago and although he can be a little hit or miss with his stats, I think he’s a great GPP that I’ll target to own between 20-25%

Fades

1) Phil Mickelson ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Gonna get ownership since it’s Phil and he plays well in California, and especially here… but he’s been bad, he’s overpriced, and there are way better options around him… that’s all there is to it… 125^th in T2G, 136^th in Fairways, 98^th in BoB

2) Emiliano Grillo ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Doubling down on my Grillo fade (didn’t work last week), but you just can’t trust his putter despite his elite ball striking; it sounds similar to Conners, but Corey loses maybe 1-3 on a bad week whereas Grillo loses like 6 or 7… I would rather eat the chalk up top and play different pivots away from Grillo this week…

Favorite Pivot

Harris English, Bud Cauley, Harold Varner III, Nate Lashley, Carlos Ortiz, Daniel Bergert, Jim Furyk, C.T. Pan, Robby Shelton, Sung Kang, Tom Hoge → Projected Ownership: 3-10%; Instead of just one guy this week there’s a lot I like so I thought I would list them above and an ownership range for all… my favorites of the main listed are Carlos Ortiz and Robby Shelton

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Tyler Duncan ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 1%; Miserable putter but makes A TON of birides; ranks 23^rd in T2G, 23^rd in SG:APP, 9^th in Fairways Gained, and 51^st in Scrambling; he’s pretty boom or bust but if he putts average or slightly below average he should be a solid cut-maker with upside

2) Ryan Brehm ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: <1%; Similar to Blaum last week (bad), he’s a GPP dart only but you can pay up and drop to Brehm who ranks 36^th in T2G, 45^th in SG: APP, 20^th in SG: Par 5s, 39^th in SG: Putting on Poa, and 26^th in BoB Gained… only $6,400 he will have almost zero ownership so taking him in a lineup or two gives you massive leverage if he makes the cut

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama

2) Harris English

3) Jim Furyk

4) Cameron Tringale

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Justin Thomas
2. Bronson Burgoon
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Harris English
6. Sungjae Im
7. Sebastian Munoz
8. Adam Scott
9. Carlos Ortiz
10. Tom Hoge
11. Vaughn Taylor
12. Brandt Snedeker
13. Collin Morikawa
14. Dylan Frittelli
15. Corey Conners

Betting

Betting insights Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Sungjae Im: 20/1

Kevin Streelman: 50/1

Cameron Tringale: 125/1

Corey Conners Top 10: 5/1

Dylan Frittelli Top 10: 5/1

Jim Furyk Top 20: 5/1

Tyler Duncan Top 20: 16/1