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All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Sea Island Seaside Course (3 Rounds) and Plantation Course (1 Round), Sea Island, GA

Fast Facts

• Sea Island (Par 70; 7005 yards); Plantation (Par 72; 7060 yards)
• Redesign by Tom Fazio in late 1990s (Seaside); Davis Love III and brother did Plantation in 2019
• Fairways very easy to hit
• GIR % is VERY high at about 74% compared to the TOUR average of about 65%
• Greens: Bermuda
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft. (LARGE)
• Field: 156 players; NEW CUT RULE: NO MDF; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average Cut around -2 to -3
• Average winning score around -17 to -20
• Winners will hit a ton of greens and get hot with the putter; key in on proximity with wedges
• Susceptible to wind since it’s a coastal setting
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Webb Simpson (residence here), Kevin Kisner, Rory Sabbatini, Brian Harman, Brian Gay, Stewart Cink, David Hearn

Course and Weather Notes: This field is… not very good; however, let’s get excited because this is the last full field/official event of 2019 then we get a few small tournaments (Hero Challenge), the President’s Cup, and then the FULL 2020 GOLF SEASON; this course tends to treat newcomers very well with many making their first win here as it should be a birdie fest as long as the wind is down; the fairways are wide, greens are large, etc. so players need to key in with their wedges (100-150 yards) and also score on their one round on the Plantation Course (Par 72; 4 Par 5s of which 3 are reachable in 2); since we have a coastal course here I think some strong corollary courses would be Harbour Town GL, Sedgefield, and possibly TPC River Highlands (Top guys there: Harman/Kisner/Webb/Kirk/Horschel)

YTD Results (Cash) – TRACKING WILL RESUME WITH MORE CONSISTENCY IN 2020

DK = 0-2

FD = 1-1

1. Greenbrier – N/A
2. Sanderson Farms
   1. DK: Score = 398 (NO CASH) – Scheffler/V. Taylor/Wise/Streelman/Redman/Straka
   2. FD: Score = 479.6 (CASH) – Poston/V. Taylor/Conners/Wise/Burgoon/Streelman
3. Safeway
   1. DK: Score = 253 (NO CASH) – Hideki/Snedeker/Stanley/Hoge/Tringale/Streelman
   2. FD: Score = 276.20 (NO CASH) – JT/Hideki/Snedeker/Streelman/Piercy/Moore

GPP Results

1. Greenbrier: 7/15 made the cut; 2 core plays in Top 7; picked the winner
2. Sanderson Farms: 12/16 made the cut, 3 core plays in Top 6; picked the winner
3. Safeway: 12/19 made the cut; 1 cor eplay in Top 7, 1 in Top 13; did not have the winner

 

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150 yards)
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• BoB Gained
• Par 5 Scoring
• GIRs Gained
• Par 4s 400-450 yards
• Par 3 Scoring

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Harris English ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%; I feel like if Brendon Todd hadn’t emerged from the grave and won back-to-back, then we would all be talking about English… we’re overpaying for him sure but his form is fantastic with FOUR top 6s or better in his last 5 starts… per his stats, he ranks 10^th in SG: T2G, 3^rd in Par 4s, 3^rd in BoB and 1^st in GIRs Gained; he has played here many times but never found a ton of success which I hope may decrease his ownership a little bit; core play

2) Adam Hadwin ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 12%; I feel like whenever I play Hadwin he screws me but I love his set up here; elite wedge player and can get very hot with the putter; he ranks 19^th in the SG: APP blend, 7^th in SG: Putting, 9^th in Par 4s, and 15^th in T2G; his last 2 starts have been meh, T40s, but his 2 before that he posted a 2^nd then a 4^th; not much course history to lean on here but I think his game sets up well as he has continued to get his form back over the last several months; core play

Fades

1) Matt Kuchar ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Probably won’t get a ton of ownership but he has the ability to get hot sure (shot -9 in R3 last week) but he hasn’t really played over the last several weeks; per his stats, which may be slightly outdated, he ranks 118^th in T2G, 90^th in SG: APP, 68tyh in Par 5s, and 133^rd in GIRs Gained… being priced as the 3^rd most expensive makes him an easy fade for me

2) Scottie Scheffler ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 19%; This is more of an ownership fade than anything else but he’s currently projecting to be the 2^nd highest owned in the field; Scheffler makes birdies in bunches sure and scores on Par 5s but only ranks 35^th in T2G, 80^th in the SG: APP blend, and 88^th in putting… if he isn’t making anything he’ll fall behind on the field; his form is solid and I wouldn’t blame people for playing him but I think I’ll go up to either Kisner or drop down to the 8k range

Favorite Pivot

This is an odd week where I don’t much of a pivot here; I plan on only playing 3 to maybe 4 guys above 9k and I don’t love other options up there even with ownership discounts; maybe a flier on Aaron Wise but I don’t love his form

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Lanto Griffin ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 14%; Really hope people overreact (per usual) to a weak Lanto performance last week and forget he’s made 14 straight cuts dating back to 2018… he ranks 6^th in T2G, 22^nd in SG: APP, 17^th in SG: Par 3s, 10^th in SG: Putting, 6^th in Par 4s, and 24^th in BoB; bad finish last week but before that he had 6 straight T18 finishes or better including a win… bounce back spot

2) Mark Hubbard ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 10%: Fun Fact – Hubbard went to my high school and I’m so glad to see him making it on the PGA Tour as he’s a great guy; he used to wax me in practice rounds after school; Hubbard has been playing great, making 7 of his last 8 cuts which includes a 2^nd, 10^th, and 13^th in that span; he ranks 13^th in T2G, 10^th in SG: APP, 11^th in Par 5s, 22^nd in SG: Putting, and 30^th in GIRs Gained; I think this is a large misprice and he’ll be a core play of mine

Fades

1) Russell Knox ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 12%; Will probably gain some buzz based on course fit due to his success at RBC Heritage (Harbour Town) but I think I’ll fade here; stats are disastrous but if we’re going to pay 8900, 68^th in T2G, 86^th in Par 3s, 50^th in Putting, 60^th in BoB isn’t attractive; his form is fine and course history is middling but I think I’ll go elsewhere for cheaper

2) Vaughn Taylor ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 13%; A great finish last week but at over 8k, that seems like too much to pay for Vaughn; stats are fine in some areas but he’s only 60^th in T2G, 61^st in SG: APP, 82^nd in Par 5s, and 120^th in GIRs Gained; runner up last week but in his previous 4 before that he had a 41^st, 2 T60 and a MC and in 6 starts at Seaside he has 4 MC and a 54^th; pass for me

Favorite Pivot

Brian Stuard, Sebastian Munoz, Matt Jones, Bronson Burgoon, David Hearn → Projected Ownership: 3-8%; Instead of just one guy this week there’s a lot I like so I thought I would list them above and an ownership range for all… my favorites of the main listed are Matt Jones and Bronson Burgoon

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Stewart Cink ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 3%; Had a rough stretch to end the year last year but at only 6800 he ranks 20^th in SG: APP, 43^rd in Par 5s, 21^st in Par 3s, 20^th in SG: Putting, 28^th in BoB, and 38^th in GIRs Gained; he hasn’t played in several weeks but it’s worth noting that he made his last 3 cuts, which included a T9 finish

2) Tom Hoge ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 2%; I always get suckered into playing him at a cheap price and here we are again… 34^th in T2G, 17^th in SG: APP blend, 18^th in Par 4s; his form is weak but he has made the cut in 4 of 5 tries at Seaside including a 9^th and 25^th; just make the cut?

 

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Lanto Griffin

2) Brian Harman

3) Mark Hubbard

4) Harris English

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Harris English
2. Brian Gay
3. Billy Horschel
4. Adam Hadwin
5. Lanto Griffin
6. Denny McCarthy
7. Webb Simpson
8. Dylan Frittelli
9. Mark Hubbard
10. Xinjun Zhang
11. Brian Harman
12. Brian Stuard
13. Cameron Percy
14. Matt Jones
15. Charles Howell III

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Adam Hadwin 33/1

Brian Harman: 66/1

Mark Hubbard: 125/1

Matt Jones Top 10: 8/1