All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Hamilton Golf & Country Club, Ontario, Canada

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 6,967 yards (shortest of the year)
• Last played here in 2012 (won by Scott Piercy) and 2006 (won by Jim Furyk)
• Greens: Bentgrass/Poa (around 10.5-11 on the stimp; much slower than TOUR avg)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft. (SMALL for the PGA TOUR)
• Rough should be wet/thick (around 4 inches… that’s what she said) so fairways KEY
• Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut with an MDF
• Winning score should be around -18 to -20
• 8 Par 4s from 400-450; most of the length comes on the Par 3s (3 are 215+ yards)
• 2^nd shot course with many lay ups off the tee required
• Potential Corollary Courses: Muirfield Village (Memorial), TPC San Antonio (Valero), TPC River Highlands (Travelers)
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Joaquin Niemann, Jim Furyk, Brian Gay

Course and Weather Notes: Much like the rest of North America, there has been a ton of rain in the area with more expected today (Tuesday) and Wednesday which should only add to the soft course and make the rough even more difficult to hit out of come the start of the tournament. This course is all about target golf and similar to last week, there may be more drivers hit than we think but for the most part, they are not required and with doglegs and key lay up shots necessary, it’s all about the approaches from <150 yards and scoring on the 7 or 8 par 4s from 400-450 yards. Both Par 5s are easily reachable in two by nearly the entire field so although they are not as prominent as last week, making birdie on all 8 of the opportunities will be essential for success. As I mentioned on the podcast, with not a ton of course history to go off, I think keeping it rather basic with stats this week is a good strategy and when building single entry, 3 max, etc. I would lean towards a mostly balanced build as you can get a little too risky when trying to find 1-2 guys below 7k as this field drops off QUICK. Onto Canada’s major!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 75-150)
• Total Driving Blend
• GIRs Gained
• BoB Gained
• Bogey Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another. I won’t always highlight the most obvious guys like DJ/Rory/etc. because they are almost always must plays.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,900) → Projected Ownership: 19%; I have DJ tied with Brooks as #1 in my model which should be pretty consistent with most everyone… I give the edge to DJ as I believe he clubs down better and is slightly better with his wedges; however, I assume Brooks will continue to burn me so I obviously have zero issue playing him as well

2) Webb Simpson ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 20%; When you think about a less-than-driver course with a ton of wedges, Webb seems like the ideal fit; sure to be popular but he’s a cash game lock at this price and in every major stat category I’m looking at he ranks 23^rd or better; form wise, he’s a little more rested than a lot in this field and is coming off 4 straight made cuts I like him a ton this week but unfortunately he could be the highest owned in the field so I’ll need 35-40% to be well overweight

Fades

1) Brooks Koepka ($11,700) → Projected Ownership: 18%; Why would I let the punishment stop now? He keeps costing me money, so I’ll let it continue… it’s not a major so is he allowed to win this one?

2) Scott Piercy ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 20%; I think he’s going to end up being mega popular due to his current form, which is some of the best of his career, and should pop in many stat models; sure he won here around 7 years ago and could definitely play well again, but there is such better talent around him that I am fine going elsewhere and hoping he burns 20-25% of people

Favorite Pivot

Henrik Stenson ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 13%; He continues to be the best iron player in the field but CANNOT PUTT; Stenson once again, similar to the PGA, gained some of the most strokes on the field with his irons but finished around 40^th; lets see him hit that 3 wood all around Hamilton and maybe this week he finds the putter? His best putting surface is Poa so hopefully something clicks for him and he gets that high finish that I’ve been chasing for weeks now…

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Keegan Bradley ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 14%; Torched me last week after he had a horrific back nine so naturally I’ll go right back; always an elite iron player, Keegan ranks #1 in my SG: APP Blend, 4^th in SG: BS, 8^th in GIRs Gained, and 27^th in BoB Gained; I’m hoping the slower greens can even him out and he can get back on track; he rarely misses 2 cuts in a row so I like going back to the well

2) Aaron Wise ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 11%; I’m not entirely sure if this is a gut call but I LOVE Wise this week; he is one of the TOUR players I love because he crushes the ball but also hits a ton of fairways; I was on him when he won last year in Texas where he showed he can make a TON of birdies and get to the -20 or more number when his putter gets hot; he ranks Top 20 in my Driving Blend, SG: BS, and GIRs Gained and is looking to get back on track after narrowly missing the cut last week; I think he’s playable in all formats and I’ll be way overweight

3) Joaquin Niemann ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 12%; I hope he doesn’t get talked up too much because Niemann has really started playing better the last several weeks after a very rough start to the year; he’s only missed 1 cut in his last 5 starts (at the PGA Champ) and per his stats, he ranks 29^th in the field in SG: BS, 35^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 26^th in my Driving Blend; he isn’t flying off the page, but at this price, he makes for an excellent GPP play and someone who fits this course well in my opinion…

Fades

1) Jim Furyk ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 18%; I’m expecting Furyk to be one of the chalkier plays in the field but I’m fading because I don’t see him competing in a tournament that gets to a winning score of around -20… his stats are superb and he’s been playing fantastic, but he only ranks 66^th in the field in BoB Gained and 60^th in my Driving Blend; if he was priced in the 7k range I might be more interested but I think at his ownership and price, there are better options around him

2) Shane Lowry/Austin Cook/Jonas Blixt ($8,600/$8,100/$7,800) → Projected Ownership: 10%/7%/10; I’m putting 3 guys here for one reason: They are all ridiculously priced; I’m sure I’ll be eating my words when one of them wins or comes Top 5 but these seem obnoxious to pay… yes, Lowry has 2 great finishes in a row but he ranks 96^th in my SG: APP Blend and 83^rd in BoB Gained, Cook ranks 98^th in my SG: APP Blend, 125^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 120^th in GIRs Gained; Blixt ranks 65^th in my SG: APP Blend and has only had one impressive finish, which was a T5 in a weak field a few weeks ago… no thanks on all 3

Favorite Pivot

Josh Teater ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 4%; Definitely a GPP only play but I don’t think many know this name and he should come in under 5%; he can be a little hit or miss but he’s gained strokes on APP in his last 5 of 6 tournaments, is on his best putting surface (poa), and actually finished T4 at this tournament in 2012… he ranks 23^rd in SG: BS in this field, 24^th in the SG: APP Blend, and 30^th in BoB Gained; he can be volatile but I like taking a shot on 10-15% and being way overweight the field

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Hank Lebioda ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 5%; This guy is young and he is damn good; Lebioda ranks 18^th in DK Points gained over the last 5 events, 27^th in SG: BS, 24^th in GIRs Gained, and 23^rd in my Driving Blend; with a VERY weak player range down here, I think he’s worth taking some shots on as he’s shown some potential on the PGA Tour thus far…

2) Carlos Ortiz ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: 1%; I wouldn’t take more than around 5-7% but Ortiz definitely has the potential of a cut maker with some upside; he ranks 45^th in the field in SG: BS, 44^th in GIRs Gained, and 25^th in the Driving Blend; of course he can miss the cut but he’s dirt cheap and can allow you to get 2 elite guys if you dip down to this level; total dart but I’ll take him in a few

Fades

Most everyone is fade down here… I may take a few shares of Scott Brown and Tyler Duncan

Favorite Pivot

Not much value in a pivot down here this week as I don’t expect anyone to be over 5% owned MAX

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Matt Kuchar

2) Webb Simpson

3) Keegan Bradley (AGAIN)

4 Aaron Wise

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 50% Recent Form, 0% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

• Dustin Johnson
• Brooks Koepka
• Rory McIlroy
• Matt Kuchar
• Scott Piercy
• Webb Simpson
• Jason Dufner
• Bubba Watson
• Sergio Garcia
• Erik Van Rooyen
• Jonas Blixt
• Bud Cauley
• Jim Furyk
• Nick Watney
• Aaron Wise

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Henrik Stenson 40/1

Aaron Wise 70/1

Ryan Armour Top 5 22/1

Josh Teater Top 10 12/1

FRL Bets

Nick Watney 66/1

Lucas Bjerregaard 66/1

Erik Van Rooyen 80/1

Brian Gay 100/1

Scott Stallings 100/1

 

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Piercy/Kuchar/Webb/DJ

Possible Pivots:

Stenson

Keegan

Cauley

Niemann

Rory