All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

The 2^nd major of the year is already upon us and I, for one, fully support the change in schedule as we now don’t have to wait 2 months from April to June and we get a different playing style with the move from August to May. So many different things can happen at a major and we will undoubtedly see some lesser known names make a run, some stars miss the cut, and everything in between, so let’s get into some stats, picks, and take down the million dollars in the DK Milly Maker.

Course and Weather Notes: I put out an extensive course preview last week for full trends, key stats, course notes, correlations, and more! I think everyone knows about the weather for the most part, and of course it can also vary, but Bethpage has received a ton of rain not only this whole season but the last 2 days. I think the rough has been cut down, as much as it can be, and although that makes it slightly easier for guys who are less accurate in theory, when this fescue and any sort of rough is wet, it is still near impossible to shape the ball. Both Tiger and Brooks have said in their interviews just how imperative it is to keep it in the fairway this week, so my thoughts that I wrote about last week and talked about on the podcast about the importance of Total Driving stays true along with the elite long iron players and par savers.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: Total
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
• Total Driving (emphasis on Distance)
• Scrambling
• SG: Putting Blend (emphasis on inside 15 feet)
• Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another. For example, this week Rory ranks #1 in course history, #1 in stats, and #1 in current form… obviously you should be playing him unless it’s a pure ownership fade.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Tiger Woods ($11,300) → Projected Ownership: 13%; We see Tiger at a massive price tag which should actually make him lower owned than normal I think… my recommendation with Tiger is to play him in any not MME or Milly Maker contests as that’s where he’ll get all the public ownership but he still ranks 5^th in my overall model, he’s in fantastic form, is 9^th in T2G, and is probably the best long iron player in the world… will be tough to get a ton since I will be loading up on DJ but I’m not going to obviously full fade Tiger… NEVER.

2) Dustin Johnson ($11,100) → Projected Ownership: 18%; Tough call here between Rory and DJ but I lean DJ (with the understanding that Rory is just as good), as DJ is a better scrambler in my model, avoids the big numbers better, and the ultimate deciding factor: DJ ranks 7^th in the field in my putting blend that puts emphasis on par saving inside 15 feet, which is paramount this week… load him up!

3) Rickie Fowler ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 18%; It’s always “Rickie’s Time” but maybe it happens here; he’s 1^st in SG: Total in the field, 5^th in the SG: APP Blend, 5^th in the Putting Blend, and 10^th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, and he’s coming off 2 straight Top 10 finishes, which includes a 9^th at the Masters; Rickie’s game is always there and I would feel 100% confident being overweight in GPPs as well as playing him in cash

Fades

1) Brooks Koepka ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 20%; I can’t wait to get trolled by everyone when Brooks blows away the field again but I can’t play everyone and after yet another high finish, I think his ownership will be through the roof… could not fault anyone for playing him but just saying that he ranks 38^th in the SG: APP Blend, 40^th in Scrambling, and 34^th in SG: T2G… not that those are bad but I think I would rather take the guys around him at way less ownership

2) Xander Schauffele ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 20%; He is getting a ton of buzz, especially from Pat Mayo, and I think is going to end up along with Sergio and Finau as the highest owned guy in the field… Xander’s stats are solid and he’s been known to play well in strong fields but a strong Augusta showing he returned a weak T63 at the RBC Heritage and before that he MC at the Players; he can make big numbers as he ranks 59^th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, 54^th in Scrambling, and 61^st in the Putting Blend; at his projected ownership I’m fine with going to others around him

Favorite Pivot

Jason Day ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Used him as a pivot at Augusta and that worked out pretty well so we’ll go there again; his last 2 starts were a T5 at the Masters, followed by a T24 at Wells Fargo, and as a guy who is one of the best putters in the world, I think his game fits perfectly; 7^th in SG: Total, 12^th in my Total Driving blend, 14^th in the Putting Blend, and 14^th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, I can easily see Day contending and this price seems way too cheap; possible cash play for me and some who I will be well overweight on

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Bubba Watson ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Boy, now he’s a guy I NEVER play but I think things set up quite well for him here; Bubba ranks 19^th in SG: Total, 4^th in Total Driving, 11^th in Scrambling, 5^th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, and 14^th in SG: T2G; I don’t think we can weigh a TON on course history, but it’s worth noting that Bubba has played this course in 2009, 2012, and 2016 and come Top 20 each time… I will be very overweight Bubba and expect him to burn me pretty good

2) Henrik Stenson ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 9%; Really hard to predict what kind of ownership and buzz he’s going to get, but I love him to get away from the massive Sergio chalk; Stenson is rounding back into form and is one of the best iron players in the world, ranking 7^th in my SG: APP blend while also ranking 11^th in SG: T2G and 12^th in Bogey/Double Avoidance; I think we’re getting an elite talent at a very low price and Stenson should find his way into my main lineup and possibly cash as well…

3) Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 10%; I think I’ve played a lot more Vegas than most anyone who plays DFS golf over the last few months but his form has been sneaky good and he ranks 9^th in my overall model this week… whoa; he ranks 12^th in SG: T2G, 14^th in SG: Total, 5^th in Total Driving, and is coming off of 6 straight made cuts, including an 8^th at the Wells Fargo; lastly, from a DK perspective, Vegas has averaged the 5^th most DK Points over his last 5 events among the whole field and if he continues to drive it well, I see him in contention for a solid Top 10 or better finish

Fades

1) Tony Finau ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 17%; I think this is the one that might really burn me… it certainly did at Augusta but other than his strong Masters finish, Finau hasn’t really had that great of a year and his form/stats show it; 75^th in the field in SG: T2G, 71^st in the SG: APP blend, 70^th in Scrambling, 49^th in Total Driving… and outside of a T5 at Augusta, his best finish was back in Mexico in which he finished T25… he will be the highest owned of anyone along with Sergio and I’m fine with a full ownership fade or at least being well underweight

2) Keith Mitchell ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 10%; said it on the pod and my opinion hasn’t changed… normally you can’t let putting splits dictate everything but he cannot putt on Poa, he’ll gain ownership due to being a bomber, but other than ranking high in Total Driving (7^th), most of his other stats are pretty middling and make an easy all out fade for me

Favorite Pivot

Jim Furyk ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 4%; As AC mentioned on the pod, I hope Furyk loses a lot of ownership due to “out of sight, out of mind,” because his game has been elite all season and since we haven’t seen him since his MC at the Heritage people might forget that he ranks 2^nd in my SG: APP Blend, 11^th in Bogey/Double Avoidance, 23^rd in SG: T2G, 26^th in Scrambling, and although he doesn’t hit it very far, he is a fairway machine; he’s cheap, shouldn’t be highly owned due to being a short hitter, and I think we can easily 2x or more the field at 15-20% ownership no problem

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Corey Conners ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 3%; We haven’t seen him in a couple weeks, but Conners rates out well and he is CHEAP; 4^th in the field in SG: T2G, 4^th in the field in the SG: APP Blend, 17^th in Total Driving and while he’s not the best putter, as I preach a lot, when we get into this range you aren’t expecting this guy to win the tournament or come even Top 5, we’re looking for a cut maker with Top 20 upside and that’s what we get with Conners; I also see around 5% ownership max…

2) Dylan Frittelli ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: 3%; This is a weird price compared to the guys around him because Frittelli ranks 2^nd on the Euro Tour in SG: T2G, 12^th in SG: APP, 3^rd in P4 Scoring, 7^th in GIR%, and 4^th in SG: OTT…. and is priced around the PGA Professionals; again, don’t load up on him or make him a core play, but if you need a cheap guy to pair with Tiger/DJ or DJ/Rickie, etc. then Frittelli is a great option that I’ll prob use in 5-10% of lineups this week

Fades

1) Luke List ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 7%; cheapest we’ll probably ever see him, but he ranks 105^th in SG: Total in this field, 130^th in Scrambling, 130^th in SG: Putting Blend, 123^rd in Bogey/Double Avoidance, and has one Top 10 this year back at the API and no other finishes better than 40^th in much weaker fields… no thanks

2) J.B. Holmes ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 7%; originally thought I might get on him due to some success he’s had at Riviera, a strong corollary this week, but since that win he has been horrible, missing 3 cuts, finishing 62^nd at Augusta, and a WD 2 weeks ago; Holmes can make some BIG numbers, ranks 126^th in SG: Total, 96^th in the SG: APP Blend, and 95^th in the SG: Putting Blend; full fade for me

Favorite Pivot

Matt Wallace ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 3%; talked about him briefly on the pod, but he’s a Euro stud who had a bad back nine last week that stopped him from winning the British Masters; over on the Euro Tour he ranks 32^nd in SG: Putting, 17^th in P4 Scoring, Top 50 in SG: T2G and SG: OTT; I don’t think many would realize but he’s the 31^st ranked player in the world coming off a 2^nd place finish for only $6,700… sign me up for 10% or so

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Jason Day

2) Paul Casey

3) Sergio Garcia

4 Webb Simpson

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 45% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Tiger Woods
6. Rickie Fowler
7. Brooks Koepka
8. Matt Kuchar
9. Jhonattan Vegas
10. Jon Rahm
11. Paul Casey
12. Justin Rose
13. Webb Simpson
14. Scott Piercy
15. Bubba Watson
16. Jim Furyk
17. Xander Schauffele
18. Jason Kokrak
19. Jason Day
20. Hideki Matsuyama

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Sergio Garcia: 50/1 (already bet)

Henrik Stenson: 66/1 (already bet)

Paul Casey: 50/1

Bubba Watson: 50/1

Jhonattan Vegas: 125/1

Keegan Bradley: 150/1

Bubba Watson Top 20: 2/1

Jhonattan Vegas Top 20: 4.5/1

Jim Furyk Top 20: 6.5/1

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Rory/DJ/Tiger/Brooks/Rickie/Xander/Fleetwood

Possible Pivots:

Rose

Bubba

Scott

Casey

Hideki