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All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Not the most exciting tournament of the year last week as the WGC saw Brooks win his 2^nd title of the season, a rare non-major, in a pretty carefree setting on Sunday. Rory had the lead coming in but sputtered with the flat stick all day, stumbling to a +1 71 while Brooks shot his 4^th straight round in the 60s, and won easily over Webb by 3 strokes. Not a tremendous week for me in the DFS space as I did not have any shares of Brooks, coupled with quite a bit of exposure to Keegan, Max Homa, and Kevin Tway, whom amongst their 12 total rounds, only mustered 2 rounds in the 60s… not good. We’re at the last full field event of the “regular season” on the TOUR and get a weaker but not totally disastrous field to close out the season… onto the Wyndham.

Course: Liberty National Golf Club, Jersey City, NJ

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7353 Yards
• Heavily redesigned by Tom Kite after the 2009 Barclays due to complaints from players
  • Also hosted the 2013 Barclays Tournament and the 2017 President’s Cup
• Greens: Bentgrass running around 11.5-12 on the stimp (average for the TOUR)
• Average Green Size: 3,500 sq. ft. (SMALL for the TOUR)
• Field: 121 players (3 no shows, 1 WD); Top 70 and ties make the cut with NO MDF
• Coastal Course with potential of high winds to wreak havoc
• Small greens = low GIR% rate and make scrambling/par saves more important
• Expected winning score around -9 to -12
• 3 Par 5s with 2 very reachable but the entire field
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott (former winner)

Course and Weather Notes: We get a very different type of course this week as I don’t believe birdies will be flying around as much as last week and I expect a much lower winning score. The key here is to focus on your long iron game and hit as many of these small greens as possible and while it’s not going to be US Open tough, saving par will be just as key as making birdies. Players need to make sure to score on the shorter Par 5s, scramble well, and I believe the longer hitters have a slight advantage. Per the weather, it looks great right now but similar to other coastal courses, the threat of wind could see the average scores playing over par and really condense the field at a moment’s notice.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
• BoB Gained/Opps. Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• GIRs Gained/Overall Proximity
• Scrambling
• SG: Par 5s

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Dustin Johnson ($10,700) → Projected Ownership: 11%; It’s hard to pin down what exactly has been going on with DJ since he shows no emotion and doesn’t speak very eloquently; however, the stats show that he hasn’t been sharp… I’m going to bet on long term for here; I ran some analysis this week to compare DJ’s putting to normal and if you take his baseline putting over his last 100 rounds (via FantasyNational), it’s about 0.3 strokes per round and if you compare to his last 12 rounds and last 8 rounds, he’s LOSING about 1 stroke per round putting… he’s never done that and I don’t expect it to keep up; further, he’s lost strokes putting in his last 4 straight events, including over 6 at the US Open where he finished T35… we know DJ is elite, I don’t think he’s going to be high owned and he can come alive at any point so I’m going to go overweight at around 30-40%

2) Jon Rahm ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 14%; Most likely my pick to win this week, I love this set up for Rahm: he has the distance, he’s been in great form, and he can win big field events; he makes birdies in bunches, he avoids bogeys (26^th in the field), and his last 5 finishes are 7^th, 11^th, 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd… he wasn’t around in 2013 when it was last played here but I think he can bomb and gouge here and set himself up for a run at the FedEx Cup title… will aim to have around 50% exposure

Fades

1) Rickie Fowler ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Always will gain ownership due to name value and he just hasn’t looked very elite over the last few months… Rickie ranks 5^th in Bogey Avoidance but very mediocre in other categories: 35^th in SG: BS, 37^th in GIRs Gained, 88^th in SG: Par 5s, 67^th in BoB Gained, and 53^rd in Scrambling… can he always get a hot putter and charge? Sure, but I think there’s a lot of better options around him this week

2) Matt Kuchar ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 12%; Normally Mr. Consistent, and I’m sure I’ll eat my words as he backdoors a Top 5 this week, but Kuchar has been riding a hot putter… his last 2 Top 20 finishes he gained over 8 strokes putting (RBC Canadian) and 3 strokes at the US Open but when he didn’t have a hot putter in hist last 2 he finished 41^st then 43^rd; in this field, he ranks 44^th in SG: BS, 44^th in the SG: APP range, 66^th in GIRs Gained, and 89^th in SG: Par 5s; I’ll pass here for others around him

Favorite Pivot

Tiger Woods ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 9%; LOL Tiger has barely played at all, didn’t play great in the cold Northern Ireland weather and is now projected for sub 10%… he ranks 1^st in the SG: APP range, 9^th in SG: BS, 6^th in GIRs Gained, and 16^th in BoB Gained… and has finished runner up here twice… I’ll buy in on the long-term form at what is the cheapest I’ve seen Tiger in a very long time… only need around 20% exposure to double the field

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Gary Woodland ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 10%; I think he sets up perfectly for this course as a long hitter and come on… he’s riding that baby swag; Woodland is such an elite ball striker, ranks 9^th in SG: Par 5s, 21^st in SG: BS, 25^th in the SG: APP range, and is now sub 8k despite winning a major less than 2 months ago… love him to contend here and score on those Par 5s especially

2) Tyrrell Hatton ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 6%; Always a fiery player with no dull moments, I like Hatton A LOT this week; Hatton ranks 7^th in SG: APP on the Euro Tour, and per his PGA stats, ranks 11^th in the SG: APP range, 7^th in GIRs Gained, 18^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 21^st in SG: T2G; Hatton has made his last 3 cuts, his last 6 of 7 cuts, and finished strong at T6 in the British Open field and I’ll own 20-25%

3) Brian Harman ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 7%; Can’t stand the guy but I can’t let my biases affect decision making; Harman has been playing superb as of late and his stats show it: 8^th in the key SG: APP range, 30^th in SG: BS, 22^nd in GIRs Gained, 12^th in SG: Par 5s, 10^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 37^th in Scrambling and he comes at a very cheap price tag; he can definitely be sporadic as he has missed the cut in 2 of his last 6 starts; however, the 3 he made the cut he has an 8^th, 7^th,6^th, and 26^th finish… he could always get overpowered due to being a short hitter but I like being overweight at +/- 20%
Fades

1) Billy Horschel ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 14%; Similar situation to Webb last week where Horschel clearly has been playing great, but I’m trying to pivot away from the chalk here; he always has blow up potential, is better on Bermuda grass, and although his SG: BS is very strong, he doesn’t stick out in many other categories (60^th in APP, 50^th in GIRs, 58^th in Bogey Avoidance); he’s gained a ton of strokes with the putter his last 6 events and if that hot fire runs out I think he has a mediocre finish

2) Jordan Spieth ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 7%; Not much explanation needed here… we all saw what happened when the putter/scrambling ran out last week on Saturday… everyone goes low and Jordan shoots 77; he keeps saying he’s close but we haven’t seen anything to support that and until he flashes at least SOME T2G game I will stay far away

Favorite Pivot

Louis Oosthuizen ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 5%; It’s never fun to play Louis because he can WD on a whim after he breaks a nail or sleeps on his back wrong but I think he’s a great pivot off the Reed/Horschel/Niemann/etc. chalk and can flash for several birdies at any time; he has not missed a cut since the Arnold Palmer in March and has gained solid strokes T2G in every event but 1 in that time; he plays a lot over on the Euro Tour and per those, he ranks 18^th in SG: T2G, 4^th in SG: OTT, and 17^th in SG: Putting and while his PGA Stats might not be spectacular, he’s the kind of player who can pop off and doesn’t need to be “in form” in my opinion; will have very low ownership so ownership 10-15% should put you well overweight the field

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Adam Scott ($8,800), Shane Lowry ($7,900), Matthew Wolff ($7,700), Rory Sabbatini ($7,700), Chez Reavie ($7,600), Joaquin Niemann ($7,500), Kevin Streelman ($7,000), Emiliano Grillo ($7,000)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Martin Laird ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 2%; Going right back to Laird after he totally collapsed last Friday and missed the cut while everyone went low… he still ranks 25^th in SG: BS, 16^th in the SG: APP range, 10^th in GIRs, 3^rd in SG: Par 5s and if he can avoid a cold putter can easily post a Top 20 or better…

2) Cameron Tringale ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 5%; Flashed a couple weeks ago but he’s had a great season; he ranks 36^th in SG: BS, 36^th in the SG: APP range, 8^th in SG: Par 5s, and 5^th in BoB Gained and only 6600 for the week… we just want a made cut and I think he could be a sleeper that pops up in the Top 15 this week…

3) Corey Conners ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 7%; Should see a little elevated ownership but OH MY GOD if he could putt… Conners is 2^nd in the field in SG: BS, 20^th in SG: APP, 1^st in GIRs Gained, but has now lost strokes putting in 16 of 18 events this year… this is way too cheap and seems like an auto play for your stars/scrubs lineups

Others I will have some shares of: Vaughn Taylor ($6,700), Sepp Straka ($6,600), Roger Sloan ($6,400)

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Webb Simpson

2) Patrick Reed

3) Gary Woodland

4) Patrick Cantlay

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 5% Course History, and 15% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Webb Simpson
3. Brooks Koepka
4. Adam Scott
5. Justin Rose
6. Shane Lowry
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Chez Reavie
11. Joaquin Niemann
12. Gary Woodland
13. Billy Horschel
14. Jon Rahm
15. Patrick Reed

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Gary Woodland: 66/1

Corey Conners: 250/1

Louis Oosthuizen Top 10: +450

Corey Conners Top 20: 8/1

Emiliano Grillo Top 20: +425

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Webb/Rose/Cantlay/Brooks/JT/Fleetwood/Xander

Possible Pivots:

Rory

Leishman

Hatton

Day

Woodland

DJ