All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

I always love watching the British (not “The Open”) as we get extended coverage with NBC at the helm, I get to wake up at 3 am to watch Tiger and see all my lineups dead, and we always see some of the most unique links courses in the entire world year in and year out. This year we get a course that hasn’t been played in over 60 years and some interesting narratives with it being close to home to the likes of Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell in Northern Ireland. In the DFS world, we get back to the normal $20, 150 max milly maker after the $100 entry at the US Open and a plethora of other strong contests. It’s the last major of the year so we have to go a little heavier (for degens like myself) and take down the million so I can break even on the season. Onto some course and weather and PICKS…

Course and Weather Notes: I put out an extensive course preview last week with full trends, key stats, course notes, narratives, possible corollary courses, and more! Similar to the US Open last month, the true teeth of this course is WIND. Groundbreaking, I know. I have checked the weather the last 3 days in a row, a few times a day, and each time has been significantly different than the previous day… no surprise there. Long term forecasts have a decent amount of rain and potential for 30+ MPH gusts on the weekend, which I hope happens for some serious tilting, but we could see a winning score anywhere from -3 to -15 in my opinion depending on the weather. The latest on the course is that the rough is THICK and akin to most Links/Open courses, although this particular course has less bunkers than most (64), they are incredibly deep and often times require a sideways shot out or barely advancing the ball. I would target elite fairway hitters, but that’s just me…

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G/SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
• Scrambling
• BoB Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• Bogey Avoidance
• 3 Putt Avoidance

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,600) → Projected Ownership: 20%; He’ll be chalky with his recent form, OWGR ranking, stats, etc. but he’s the best player in the field this week and my pick to win… not much to say that you don’t already know: #1 in SG: BS, #1 in T2G, 4^th in SG: OTT, #1 in Bogey Avoidance, #1 in BoB Gained and his last 4 British Opens he’s finished 2^nd, 4^th, 5^th, and 1^st… If I’m playing a 3 max I probably have him in 100% and if I’m playing 20 lineups, I would have him in 70-80% of my lineups

2) Justin Rose ($9,900) → Projected Ownership: 12%; We haven’t seen Justin Rose in a while as his last start was at the US Open last month, where he finished 3^rd; I think he’s starting to get talked up but as I mentioned on the pod, I’m hoping he gets SLIGHTLY overlooked as he wedged in between 2 mega popular players in Tiger Woods and Tommy Fleetwood… he ranks 9^th in Scrambling for the week and 17^th in 3 Putt Avoidance and although his ball striking is in the Top 5 or Top 10 like it normally is, he’s a great majors player and has 2 Top 6s and 2 Top 23rds or better in the last 5 years… I’ll target 30-40% exposure

3) Bryson Dechambeau ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 9%; After a lackluster first several months of the year, Bryson has really starting popping again having finished 2^nd 2 weeks ago (could have been a winner if he hadn’t flubbed a chip) and 8^th 2 weeks before that; per his stats, he’s 11^th in my key SG: APP range, 18^th in SG: BS, 11^th in BoB Gained, and 24^th in 3 Putt Avoidance… Bryon’s only played in 2 British Opens before this but I think he has the pedigree to win a major here soon and it could very well be this week… plus, we’re getting decent leverage if he indeed stays 10% or less owned; 30% for me

Fades

1) Jon Rahm ($10,600) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Yes Rahm is an elite player, yes his last 3 starts have been a 3^rd, 2^nd, and most recently, a 1^st, but I think his potential of getting into trouble and blowing up here is pretty high… per his stats, he ranks 33^rd in SG: BS, 43^rd in the key approach range, 46^th in Bogey Avoidance, and most importantly, 95^th in Scrambling… his British Open course history is pretty brief but unimpressive also with a MC last year and a 44^th and 59^th the 2 years prior… can’t play everyone and he’s a fade for me

2) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 12%; Will be interested to track this ownership as we get closer to lock but I have a feeling it’ll be higher than my current projected as he’s always mega popular; I don’t think Tommy has looked as strong this year as he doesn’t have a Top 10 finish since the weak field at the Byron Nelson (in May); his stats aren’t spectacular either as he ranks 47^th in SG: BS, 65^th in SG: OTT, 97^th in SG: Par 5s, 49^th in BoB Gained, and 39^th in Scrambling… I think this is too high a price and one that definitely won’t return value

Favorite Pivot

Tiger Woods ($10,200) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Well here we are… Tiger Woods in the pivot section; now, his ownership will probably get higher than this, maybe 12-13% or so but people seem to be full fade on him and I’m not sure why? I’ve heard “it’s too cold” and “he hasn’t played,” but I don’t really care about that; he ranks 4^th in the key approach range, 10^th in SG: T2G, 4^th in SG: Par 5s, 10^th in BoB Gained, and 18^th in Bogey Avoidance; he held the lead at one point last year and ultimately finished 6^th… I think with his price and others around him he will be at some of the lowest ownership of the year and I’m fine taking around 20-25% to be double the field… plus it’s TIGER FUCKING WOODS

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Adam Scott ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 20%; Will probably be one of the chalkier plays on the slate but can’t ignore how solid he’s playing this year… he’s 2^nd in my overall model as he ranks 1^st in SG: Par 5s, 4^th in BoB Gained, 7^th in Scrambling, 3^rd in SG: BS, 2^nd in T2G, 2^nd in the key approach range, and 12^th in Bogey Avoidance… wow; he hasn’t played since the US Open but his last 3 finishes are 7^th, 2^nd, and 8^th, all in elite fields; further, he has made his last 9 British Open starts in a row which includes 3 Top 25s, a Top 10, and 3 Top 5s… I assume that’s good enough for everyone? 40-50% exposure in GPPs and a cash lock for me

2) Gary Woodland ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 9%; Guy wins the US Open, misses a cut at a dumb event and is now projected for under 10% ownership… lol ok; Gary’s stinger/very low ball flight is PERFECT for this weather environment, and, not to mention, he ranks 7^th in SG: BS, 5^th in SG: APP, 7^th in SG: Par 5s, and 3^rd in BoB gained… is he the best scrambler? No, but he hits a ton of greens; he is 7/7 for made cuts at the British and expect him to put up a very solid performance again

3) Patrick Reed ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 10%; This one hurts because I can’t stand the guy but as I said on the pod, Reed never needs to be “in form” to contend or put up a Top 10; however, he actually HAS been gaining form with 4 straight made cuts, including a Top 5 at the 3M Open; he has a mixed history at the British with 3 made cuts (including 3 Top 28s or better) and 2 MC; his stats are solid as well, ranking 14^th in SG: T2G, 19^th in SG: APP, 9^th in SG: Par 5s, 18^th in BoB Gained, 34^th in Scrambling, and 33^rd in 3 Putt Avoidance… this is pretty cheap for a still Top 25 player in the world and a great GPP play in my opinion

Fades

1) Graeme McDowell ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Great story that he made the qualifying for the course he grew up on and I like the guy/hope he does well but this is expensive for this field and an easy fade for me… he’s a decent scrambler and putter but has subpar stats otherwise: 72^nd in SG: BS, 54^th in SG: APP, 114^th in SG: OTT and going to be difficult to pay for that with a loaded 7k range

2) Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Made a bet on Hatton a few weeks ago and am now regretting it… he’s too much of a hot head in my opinion for this course and his stats aren’t that great either, per his European Tour stats, 201^st in GIR, 159^th in SG: Putting, 101^st in SG: OTT, 96^th in Driving Accuracy, and 89^th in Scrambling; his form is decent with only 1 MC in his last 7 starts but only one of those resulted in a Top 10; per his Open form, he finished 5^th in 2016 but in his 7 starts has 5 MC and 51^st on top of it… not worth the price and not worth the higher ownership as a potential “sleeper”

Favorite Pivot

Lee Westwood ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 4%; It’s so important in a week like this to of course use Fantasy National but for some, like Westwood, he’s predominantly a Euro player and so his stats on the PGA Tour will look minimal and weak; his Euro stats look like this: 15^th in SG: T2G, 6^th in SG: APP, 8^th in Par 3 Scoring, 2^nd in Scrambling, and 48^th in GIR… pretty damn solid; his form is respectable as well with 4 straight made cuts that includes a 23^rd, 18^th, and 10^th… can he win? Probably not, but he does have 2 3^rd place finishes and a runner up in his British Open history; great GPP play at 10-15% exposure

Other Players I Like: Paul Casey ($8,300), Matt Wallace ($8,100), Webb Simpson ($7,600), Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,100), Kevin Streelman ($7,000)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Billy Horschel ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 4%; This seems like a misprice to me… he ranks 21^st overall in my model, ranking 22^nd in SG: T2G, 17^th in SG: APP, 21^st in Bogey Avoidance, 29^th in SG: OTT, 20^th in 3 Putt Avoidance, and 15^th in Scrambling; Billy has made 5 cuts in a row, including a Top 10 at the strong Memorial field; when we get down here, we just want a made cut and Billy has that and a TON more upside; we don’t need too much to be heavy overweight so I’ll target 12-15%

2) Joaquin Niemann ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 7%; Will have to monitor this ownership as he really could get over 10% but Niemann has been playing lights out; 11^th in SG: T2G, 25^th in SG: APP, 7^th in SG: OTT, 22^nd in SG: Par 5s, 16^th in BoB Gained, and 30^th in Scrambling; further, here are his last 4 starts: 10^th, 23^rd, 5^th, 5^th… he’s coming here with probably the best form that doesn’t include a win and I think I’ll be heavy overweight at 20+%

Euro Fliers

Andrea Pavan ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 2.5%; a win a few weeks ago and a 4^th at the Scottish last week…

Justin Harding ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 1.3%; not in form but an elite talent that is too cheap

Oliver Wilson ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: <1%; made 7 cuts in a row, which includes 2 Top 8 finishes and a 19^th at the Irish

Tom Lewis ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: <1%; 10^th on the Euro in GIR, 47^th in Scrambling; not in form but a flier that no one will take; most risky play of them all

Andy Sullivan ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 3.5%; made 5 straight cuts with a runner up at the Irish

Mike Lorenzo-Vera ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 4%; holds a 9^th and 2^nd in last 3 starts; 16^th at PGA Championship

Paul Waring ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 1%; 4 Top 25s or better in his last 5 starts, including a 6^th and a 7^th;

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 1%; has a win and 3^rd in his last 4 starts

Fades

Besides the Euro fliers above I will be fading most everyone in the 6k range

Favorite Pivot

Adam Hadwin ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 3%; I think most will play some Euros, Niemann, or Horschel but Hadwin has really improved his form as of late and per his stats, ranks 14^th in SG: APP, 25^th in SG: BS, 23^rd in SG: Par 5s, and 6^th in BoB Gained… coming off a 4^th place finish 2 weeks ago and a 6^th at the RBC Canadian several weeks ago… only 3% ownership makes a great 5-10% play in GPPs

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Patrick Cantlay

2) Adam Scott

3) Matt Kuchar

4) Henrik Stenson

5) Paul Casey

6) Webb Simpson

7) Rafa Cabrera Bello

8) Kevin Streelman

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Adam Scott
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Matt Kuchar
5. Justin Rose
6. Henrik Stenson
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Dustin Johnson
9. Gary Woodland
10. Chez Reavie
11. Paul Casey
12. Xander Schauffele
13. Brooks Koepka
14. Joaquin Niemann
15. Webb Simpson
16. Bryson DeChambeau
17. Shane Lowry
18. Jason Day
19. Jon Rahm
20. Tiger Woods

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Matt Kuchar: 50/1 (already bet); still don’t mind it at 33/1

Louis Oosthuizen: 66/1 (already bet); I love lighting money on fire

Lee Westwood: 125/1

Paul Casey: 50/1

Bryson Dechambeau: 40/1

Mike Lorenzo-Vera Top 20: 12/1

Top Spanish Player RCB: +325

Top French Player Mike Lorenzo-Vera: +165

To Miss the Cut: Phil Mickelson +120/Zach Johnson +110/Tommy Fleetwood +310

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Rory/Brooks/Rose/Rahm/Schauffele/Scott

Possible Pivots:

Jason Day

Marc Leishman

Hideki Matsuyama

Webb Simpson

Patrick Cantlay