Sam’s Teeing Off – 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson DraftKings Picks and Preview

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7,492 yards
• Coore/Crenshaw Design
• Greens: Bermuda (Slow for the tour; around 11 on the stimp)
• Average Green Size: 13,000 sq. ft. (MASSIVE as the avg TOUR green is around 6,500 sq. ft.)
• No water, no trees just enormous fairways
  • Fairway width is around 58 yards on average (compare to about 31 yards last week) and played very firm last year but could favor bombers more due to heavy rain this week
• Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut
• American Links Style golf course
• Driving Accuracy significantly higher than the TOUR average (over 70% here vs. 61% TOUR Average)
• Distance not required, but definitely favors the bombers
• Due to green size, average proximity here is around 35 feet compared to TOUR avg of 28.8
• 2018 Stroke Average: 69.41
• Only played here in 2018 (cut was -4)

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

• SG: BS – 25%
• SG: APP Blend (175+ yards) – 20%
• Opportunities Gained/BoB Gained – 15%
• SG: Par 5s – 15%
• Driving Distance – 10%
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 Yards – 5%
• SG: Putting Blend – 5%
• Overall Proximity – 5%

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%; #1 in my overall model and consistently one of the most solid long iron players on TOUR (#7 in the SG: APP blend this week); per his stats Hideki ranks #1 in the field in SG: T2G, 1^st in SG: BS, 4^th in SG: Par 4s 400-450, 2^nd in Opps/BoB, and 12^th in Overall Proximity; I sound like a broken record but wow if he could just putt average… Hideki has made every cut since the British Open last year, has racked up numerous Top 10s and sets up well. We’ll see how the flat sick goes…

2) Keith Mitchell ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 19%; Unfortunately Keith seems to be getting more buzz than I would have liked this week but he has been HOT FIRE the last several weeks, absolutely crushes the ball, and should set up very well here; his last 7 starts saw him win the Honda Classic, come 6^th the following week, finish 8^th at the Wells Fargo, and not to mention, Bermuda grass is by far his best putting surface; 3^rd in the field in DD Gained, 6^th in Opps/BoB, and 7^th in SG: Par 5s… I will be locking and loading Keith in at least 50% of lineups and he’s almost certainly a cash game lock for me as well

Fades

1) Marc Leishman ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Finished runner up here last year which should bump up his ownership but his last several results have been somewhat underwhelming with a 58^th, 49^th, 16^th in a weak field, MC, and 23^rd in his last 5 starts; obviously elite striker of the ball but rates poorly in SG: Par 5s, and well below average in 3 Putt Avoidance

2) Rory Sabbatini ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Guy has been playing well but I am not paying 9k for him… I’m pretty sure for the last few years I’ve never seen Sabbs higher than high 6k or low 7k price and now he’s the 11^th highest priced guy; his stats have been solid T2G and on Par 5s but he’s average on DD Gained, the SG: APP Blend, and putting… pass for me

Favorite Pivot

Not really many pivot options up here this week as I believe all will garner some ownership; only guy I’m considering is that if I see Spieth coming in at under 10% I will take a few shares and be overweight the field at around 10%

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Kevin Na ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 10%; This one will probably burn me but Kevin Na plays well in Texas for some reason and is in some decent form with 2 Top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts; I think people stay off him due to his short length of the tee but he ranks 20^th in Par 4s from 400-450, 18^th in Opps/BoB, and 26^th in Overall Proximity; I’m hoping most forget that he finished 6^th here and that he hits it short and we can get him around that 10% range; I’m not going to go all in on Kevin Na because that never works but I’m very comfortable having 20-25% exposure

2) Ryan Moore ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 16%; Hoping he doesn’t get TOO chalky and maybe his lack of distance off the tee will cause hesitation but Moore ranks 2^nd SG: T2G, 4^th SG: BS, 10^th in the SG: APP Blend, 12^th in SG: Par 5s, 16^th in Opps Gained/BoB, and 10^th in Overall Proximity; after a poor start to the year we saw him pop at Valero in which he probably wins if Corey Conners didn’t become unconscious and birdie the entire course; Moore has gained on approaches and T2G in his last 6 straight events, the exact kind of trajectory we’re looking for and if he can get his putter working (similar to Valero), he can make birdies in bunches

3) Brian Stuard ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 9%; Reallllllllly hoping he doesn’t become a trendy pick but Stuard has been playing great recently… yes. He ranks 10^th in the field in SG: T2G, 8^th in SG: BS, FIRST in the SG: APP Blend, 5^th in Opps/BoB, 5^th in the Putting Blend, and 1^st in Overall Proximity. Now that’s scary. He can be a little sporadic as his last 5 starts are 16^th, 4^th, MC, 18^th, MC, but he’s gained a TON of strokes on approach his last 3 tournaments, is on his best putting surface, and is definitely in play to be a core play of mine at around 30-40%… yikes.

Fades

1) Russell Knox ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Not sure I understand the Knox love this week as he has solid stats, sure, but he’s one of the worst putters in the field, doesn’t hit the ball very far, and although he’s a solid iron play and creates chances through opportunities gained, he doesn’t convert to often; further, in his last 6 starts his best finish is a T24 in a somewhat weak field; I was going to probably fade anyway but at 17% or more ownership, that’s a hard pass

2) Trey Mullinax ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Mullinax will definitely garner some decent ownership since he bombs the ball and if I was just playing guys based on stats, I would be all in (he’s #1 in my stats model this week), but if we look at his recent form, it’s not that great with only 1 decent finish (a 16^th at the RBC Heritage) with his other 6 starts in the current run resulting in 2 MC, 1 51^st, 54^th, 61^st, and 50^th last week… yikes. With all his power and elite long iron play he’s a very below average putter who’s prone to 3 putts and in that regard, makes for a definite fade for me

Favorite Pivot

Sung Kang ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 6.5%; Projecting for sub 7% ownership and ranking 9^th in my overall model, I love Sung Kang over what are sure to be popular guys in Matt Jones, Frittelli, and Schenk near Kang’s price point; he ranks 25 in SG: BS, 19^th in Par 4s 400-450, 16^th in the SG: APP Blend, and 14^th in Overall Proximity; coming off his first MC in his last 8 starts, I think his ownership will stay low and as a consistently good T2G player, if he can putt average or above this week, he makes for a great T20 or better play and we don’t need to have a ton of exposure to be well overweight the field

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Nate Lashley ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: 7%; I think Lashley is going to get talked up around the industry quite a bit this week so maybe tread lightly but his stats are great: 2^nd in my SG: APP Blend, 24^th in SG: T2G, 18^th in SG: BS, and 6^th in Overall Proximity; not exactly a bomber of the ball but he’s a total birdies in bunches guy and at this cheap, we’re just looking for a made cut with some upside

Fades

Most of these guys down here are fades…

Favorite Pivot

Doug Ghim ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 1.5%; Ghim is a total stud and a cheap 6k that I like to play most weeks; he doesn’t have a ton of document rounds, at least in FNGC, so be careful with those, but we’ve seen him play well in big tournaments and this is more of a gut gall for me; I would say I’ll have somewhere between 5-10% exposure and hope for a solid made cut

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Keith Mitchell

2) Ryan Moore

3) Rafa Cabrera Bello

4 Brian Stuard

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 50% Recent Form, 5% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Brooks Koepka
3. Keith Mitchell
4. Sungjae Im
5. Brian Stuard
6. Ryan Moore
7. Thomas Pieters
8. Rory Sabbatini
9. Sung Kang
10. Rafa Cabrera Bello
11. Scott Piercy
12. Scottie Scheffler
13. Aaron Wise
14. Adam Schenk
15. Cheng Tsung Pan

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Keith Mitchell 35/1

Sung Kang 125/1

J.T. Poston Top 10 8/1

Roger Sloan Top 20 10/1

Nate Lashley Top 20 10/1

Peter Uihlein Top 20 6.5/1