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Course: TPC Southwind
Fast Facts
- Par 70 approx. 7250 yards
- Bermuda Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 4300 sq. ft. greens on average (SMALL)
- Field: 78 players; No Cut
- Narrow Zoysia fairways
- Water on 10 holes with a TON of water balls on Holes 12 and 18
- 2019 Winning Score (first year as a WGC no cut event): -13 by Brooks Koepka
- Corollary Courses: TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield, PGA National, East Lake, TPC Scottsdale
- Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Byeong Hun An, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson, Xander Schaufflele, Paul Casey
Course and Weather Notes: Now in its 2nd year of a WGC event, TPC Southwind has historically been one of the tougher courses on TOUR with very small greens (4300 sq. ft. on average) and fairways that are pretty narrow; however, it is not a new course in the rotation by any means as it hosted the St. Jude Classic for decades before as an event with a cut that has seen elite winners with Berger winning back to back in 2016/2017 followed by a runaway DJ win and Brooks last year in the WGC debut. Approach game remains paramount as always, but I think it’s key to look at scrambling and bogey avoidance this week as yes you have to make birdies but getting a hot putter and saving par is almost as important as big numbers loom with over 5000 water balls on this course over the last 10 years or so and only 2 Par 5s compared to the normal 3-4 we’ve seen the last several weeks.
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance:
- SG: T2G
- SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
- BoB Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: OTT
- GIRs Gained
- SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
SuperDraft Ranks and Thoughts
Both DFSKarma and myself have been getting more and more exposure and interest to SuperDraft and I wanted to begin to give some thoughts and ranks for those contests as they do things a little bit differently and although I’m still new and learning I think there is a definite edge to be had with less sharks, no salary cap to worry about, and a different roster construction compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Below I will post how scoring is done and my favorite 15 guys to build in a 6-person lineup. There are no salaries so if you wanted to take the top 6 ranked players in the world, you can do that if you please (doesn’t seem like a +EV strategy). As you’ll note, the lower quality player, the higher the multiplier they get for fantasy points and the top dogs, such as DJ/Fleetwood/Brooks, etc won’t get nearly the same bonuses but can be expected to outperform the lower tier guys.
My strategy for this week is to focus more on players with some consistency, both recent and long term, and mix in maybe a flier or two in each lineup. Multipliers are way lower this week with 1) a star-studded field and 2) because of the limited field (78 players compared to the normal 150+). I think a couple players worth mentioning are the top 3 listed as I think they’ll be chalk but also represent tremendous birdie upside as Webb is an elite BoB maker and thrives on Bermuda greens, while Xander and Hideki both possess extremely high ceilings where they can be mediocre for 2-3 rounds but can go uber low in 1 to pay off their price and then some. Daniel Berger seems like a strong but also chalk play as he has elite course history with 2 wins here and has been playing some fantastic golf over the last few months. My favorite fliers are Chez/Conners/Duncan as Chez is an elite iron player, Conners hits more greens than anyone on TOUR but lacks a putter, and Tyler Duncan is a ball striking machine but is also susceptible to making big numbers. Lastly, Streelman T2G has been lights out the last several weeks, Reed has the ability to win this thing, and if Spieth gets a hot putter… LOOK OUT.
Below is my table of 12 guys I’m interested in and sign up for core plays (below) to see my SD core for the week!
https://dfskarma.com/shop/all/pga/
