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Course: TPC Boston
Fast Facts
- Par 71 approx. 7342 yards; Arnold Palmer design (Hanse redesign in 2006)
- Bentgrass Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST); 5800 sq. ft. greens on average (TOUR average)
- Field: 125 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
- Easy to hit fairways and easy to hit greens
- Average winning score around -17 or -18 with average cut around +2
- Corollary Courses: Liberty National, TPC Twin Cities, Ridgewood CC, Colonial CC, Glen Abbey
- Course Fit Targets: Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedker, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Kevin Na, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matusyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Brian Harman
Course and Weather Notes: Last played here in 2018, we return to TPC Boston, formerly the host of the first FedEx Cup event until last year (Dell Technologies) and has yielded winners like Bryson, Rory (twice), JT, Webb, Rickie, and randomly Chris Kirk. I’m taking somewhat of a similar approach to last week as you’ll see in my key stats below as I think it will definitely play tougher, but the winning score should be close to -20 (maybe -15 or so) and you need guys who are studs with their long irons, can score on the very easy par 5s, and excel on Bentgrass greens… normally, events like this that are strong and feature the top players in the world produce high class winners; however, for DK purposes, that doesn’t mean the lower 7k and upper 6k guys can return strong value so I think my strategy will be more studs/duds this week as the “duds” are still high quality guys for the most part… as of this writing I don’t see any weather but make sure to check back as late as possible on Wednesday to see if there is any edge to be had before tee off on Thursday…
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance:
- SG: T2G
- SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200)
- BoB Gained
- SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: OTT
SuperDraft Ranks and Thoughts
Both DFSKarma and myself have been getting more and more exposure and interest to SuperDraft and I wanted to begin to give some thoughts and ranks for those contests as they do things a little bit differently and although I’m still new and learning I think there is a definite edge to be had with less sharks, no salary cap to worry about, and a different roster construction compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Below I will post how scoring is done and my favorite 15 guys to build in a 6-person lineup. There are no salaries so if you wanted to take the top 6 ranked players in the world, you can do that if you please (doesn’t seem like a +EV strategy). As you’ll note, the lower quality player, the higher the multiplier they get for fantasy points and the top dogs, such as DJ/Fleetwood/Brooks, etc won’t get nearly the same bonuses but can be expected to outperform the lower tier guys.
We’re back to another loaded field for the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs which leads to a lot of really solid guys having great multipliers. Similar to last week, definitely a tougher track though, we want high upside birdie makers and this week especially I think you can take more risks in a stars/scrubs approach as the cut is easier to make with 125 guys instead of 156 and while I think the studs are in play, as always, I have decent interest in some boom or bust guys. A few that catch my eye are Ancer, who I think could win an event like this as he has an elite long-iron game, Daniel Berger, who has been on FIRE and still has a 1.2x multiplier, and Matthew Wolff, who’s one of my favorite plays of the week on DraftKings as well with a 1.25x multiplier. Wolff can make birdies in bunches, he can easily give himself eagle opportunities on the 3 par 5s and is in terrific form. Some fliers I like are Steele, Kokrak, and Henley with the first 2 being bombers who can also get those eagle looks while Henley is one of the better approach players in the field over the last month. Some guys I expect to be lower owned that I would put in GPPs include Rickie Fowler (no form but former winner here), Tiger (he’s a goat), Ryan Palmer, and Brooks Koepka who could all easily finish in the Top 10 or better.
Below is my table of 15 guys I’m interested in and sign up for core plays to see my SD core for the week!
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