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Course: El Camaleon Golf Club
Fast Facts
- Par 71, 7017 yards designed by Greg Norman
- Pasapalum greens (similar to Bermuda); slow, around 11-11.5 on the stimp
- Field: 132 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
- Main course defense is wind since 14/18 holes are along the coastline
- Average Cut Even or -1
- No ShotLink data (GIRs are key here)
- Corollary Courses: Accordia, Coco Beach, Albany, Port Royal, Waialae CC, TPC Kuala Lumpur
- Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, Marc Leishman, Brendon Todd, Emiliano Grillo, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Steve Stricker, Brian Gay, Scott Piercy
Course and Weather Notes: Well in what has been certainly the most bizarre year of my life, we have reached the last tournament of 2020 before shortest offseason in sports, which is about 3 weeks on the PGA TOUR. I certainly hope everyone (all 4 of you) that have read any of my content this year have had some success and I am always open to any suggestions, ideas, trolling, or whatever else you want to see me cover or not cover as we move into 2021. The tour this week goes to Mexico for the Mayakoba Classic and while not an “elite” field, we do have a much stronger field than usual with the likes of Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger making the trip, to name a few. There is traditionally no ShotLink data at this course so we only have basic stats to dial into, but per usual, SG: APP should reign supreme and I think with the stronger field we can expect a winning score of probably -20 or even better, so Birdie or Better, and obviously SG: Putting with an emphasis on Bermuda/Pasapalum (courses with Pasapalum have no shot link so don’t have official “Strokes Gained” on those, but Bermuda is pretty similar). In terms of course fit, I wouldn’t weigh it too heavily, as with a stronger field, normally the cream rises to the top, but for cheap guys under 8k, I will weigh course history and the course comps a little bit in making my final player pool. As of this writing (Tuesday mid-morning), I don’t see a ton of wind in the forecast, which is the biggest defense of the course, but there is rain expected all day Thursday, which if it’s a washout wouldn’t affect a specific wave but would make the course softer, which equals better scoring so make sure to wait in making lineups till late Wednesday for the most up to date weather. Onto the picks and I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season!
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance:
- SG: Approach (emphasis on 100-150)
- BoB Gained
- GIRs Gained
- SG: T2G
- SG: Putting (Pasapalum/Bermuda emphasis)
- SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
SuperDraft Ranks and Thoughts
Both DFSKarma and myself have been getting more and more exposure and interest to SuperDraft and I wanted to begin to give some thoughts and ranks for those contests as they do things a little bit differently and although I’m still new and learning I think there is a definite edge to be had with less sharks, no salary cap to worry about, and a different roster construction compared to FanDuel and DraftKings. Below I will post how scoring is done and my favorite 15 guys to build in a 6-person lineup. There are no salaries so if you wanted to take the top 6 ranked players in the world, you can do that if you please (doesn’t seem like a +EV strategy). As you’ll note, the lower quality player, the higher the multiplier they get for fantasy points and the top dogs, such as JT/Brooks/Finau, etc won’t get nearly the same bonuses but can be expected to outperform the lower tier guys.
I think this is a tremendous week to take advantage of SuperDraft if you’re either a returning or new player as we get some serious value on a lot of strong names. For example, Carlos Ortiz has a huge 1.5x multiplier, but is Top 10 in my overall ranks in the field and the 13th most expensive player on DraftKings. Ortiz is coming off a win 3 weeks ago in Texas, is a native of Mexico, and is in good form to close out 2020. Peter Malnati also presents a lot of value as an elite putter, especially on Bermuda greens and is coming in with 5 straight made cuts with 2 Top 5s and a T21 in that span. Some “riskier” but definitely high upside plays include the likes of Sepp Straka, Scott Piercy, and Doug Ghim, all with a multiplier of 1.4x or higher. Scott Piercy is often hindered by a poor putter, but he has made 5 straight cuts with 3 T20s in those 5 and has made 4 straight cuts at this event, with a 6th/4th/16th in 3 of his last 4 down in Mexico. I expect Straka/Ghim to get some ownership over on DraftKings and FanDuel, and maybe on SuperDraft too, but they present huge upside as Ghim has made 3 cuts in a row with a T23 or better finish in 4 of his last 5 starts while Straka has 4 straight made cuts with a T21 and T5 in that span. As noted in my DraftKings article, I will take a shot on Leishman at 1.4x, hoping he found some form at Augusta as he’s a world class player, won early this year at Torrey Pines, and can get a hot putter at any moment. As always, I don’t think it’s necessary to play all high risk/reward guys as JT is the far and away class of the field, at least in my opinion, so even at 1x, you will need him if he wins and to a lesser extent, Harris English and Russell Henley are lower multipliers as well but come in with elite form and have huge T5/T10 upside as well. I think guys like Harman/Long/Dahmen/Stanley will come in with very little ownership and while they aren’t as sexy as the top tier players, Harman is a great putter and doesn’t need the distance this week, while Long/Stanley can get very hot with their irons and rattle off several birdies in one round since they hit a ton of greens.
Good luck this week and hit me up on Twitter and our Discord if you want to know about any other plays or SuperDraft strategy!
Below is my table of 15 guys I’m interested in and sign up for core plays to see my SD core for the week!
