The Masters 2020 Preview
Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Fast Facts
- Par 72, 7475 yards
- Fairways: Bermuda
- Rough: Rye and Bluegrass
- Greens: Bentgrass (Lightning fast; probably 13+ on the stimp or closer to 14)
- Average Green Size: 6500 sq. ft. (about average for the TOUR)
- Water Hazards: 6
- Field: 93 players; Cut is Top 50 and ties (ANGC has removed the within 10 shots rule this year)
- 18 Hole Stroke Average: 73.59 (+1.59 OVER par)
- Average Cutline over the last 10 years: +5
- Par 5 Scoring Key with nearly 40% of DK points coming from Par 5s and all playing under par
- NOTE: Joaquin Niemann and Sergio Garcia have withdrew due to Covid-19. No alternates at the Masters.
Hello Friends, and welcome to my favorite week of the year and one of the most dramatic four days, at least in my opinion, in all of sports. Sure we’re getting it seven months late, sure they’re rolling out split tee times for the first time ever (except for last year’s final round), and sure we can expect even more randomness and volatility than usual with unknown weather, conditions, and player form… but the Masters is here! I’m sure I will go into way too much detail for the average golf fan, DFS fan, or just casual viewer of the Masters, but as I try and find every sort of edge and trust or debunk every single narrative that goes along with Augusta National, I want to present and give my opinions to help us narrow down a winner and find some guys who are more likely to have success.
Let’s look at the scorecard in which I’ve listed the usual Par, length, average approach distance, rank in difficulty, average strokes, and Birdie-or-Better % (BoB).
As we look above, we can gain a lot of knowledge about the type of player it takes to succeed at Augusta and for the most part, with of course some outliers, very similar skills are required to not only make the cut but be there on Sunday. If you take a look at both the table at the top, which provides the average approach shot distance per par type and look above at some of the tougher holes, it may seem rudimentary to analyze hitting greens, but this course has an extremely low GIR%. Why? If you count them up, including Par 5s, about 13 of 18 (depending on Driving Distance), or 72%, of approaches are 175 yards or more. With how this course is designed with several doglegs and fairway bunkers, the true yardage of this course is closer to 7600-7700 yards. A good example of this would be #5, in which you see 495 yards, but your approach is well over 200 yards and therefore that BoB% is under 10%. The other important stat that may also seem obvious is Par 5 BoB%. Of the last few winners (excluding Danny Willet who won in poor conditions at only -5), Tiger went -7 on the Par 5s for the week, Reed went -13, Sergio -8, and Spieth went -12 on the Par 5s in 2015. #2 is an eagle opportunity for many due to the severe downhill, #13, the last leg of Amen Corner, leaves a long approach or a flip wedge, and #15, unless you’re Sergio (yikes, 2018 was a brutal one if you haven’t seen his score on #15 in Round 1), should be very hittable in two as well. The ability to not drop too many shots and scramble to save par on these quick greens on the Par 4s while taking advantage of opportunities on Par 5s should put you ahead of most of the field.
Weather
My quick thoughts (and just a guess, as most everyone is) is that this course will play longer given the colder temperatures in November and with the reports of heavy rain expected all week. Similar to most weeks, I wouldn’t completely eliminate players who are shorter from my DFS player pool but with driving distance being a premium in year’s past, I would definitely look into that when picking winners/betting and if you really want to take a deep dive, and use this as a tie breaker, use the PGA Tour stats website and research guys who have longer carry distance. The Top 5 in that category, currently in the field:
- Bryson DeChambeau (average carry distance of 345, which is absolutely nuts)
- Cameron Smith
- Rory McIlroy
- Cameron Champ
- Matthew Wolff
Trends and Course History Stats (maybe some narratives too)
Everyone loves a good trend or narrative and Augusta is full of them as we try to narrow down who can close the deal late on Sunday. There are so many trends and narratives that I’ve tried to find what is not only interesting and probably meaningless but also what is predictive and useful in picking contenders and eventual winners. First, the interesting:
- 10 of the last 10 winners were not the defending champion (sorry Tiger; that one hurts)
- 10 of the last 10 winners were not the World. #1 (sorry DJ)
- 9 of the last 10 winners were under 40 (Tiger is the exception that broke this rule)
- 9 of the last 10 winners played in at least one Masters (debutants normally struggle)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a previous Top 30 at Augusta
- 20 of the last 20 winners had a T40 at Augusta before their win
- 13 of the last 20 had a prior Top 10 before their win
- 9 of the last 10 winners posted a Top 10 earlier in the season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a Top 30 finish or better in at least 1 of their last 2 starts
- 7 of the last 20 winners had a prior Masters win
Using the above criteria as well as the two tables above which shows the Augusta National course history for the last 20 winners and the current form coming into their win for the last 10 winners, I have narrowed down 9 names who I believe “fit” all the molds and have the best chance to win. Of course, this is mostly for fun as it would be ridiculous to say that someone like Tiger Woods, who’s won it 6 times can’t win (as shown last year by bucking most of the trends), or that just because they’re #1 in the world DJ can’t win or Rory can’t come out and storm the field because those outcomes would not shock anyone. However, I can’t stress it enough how much course history does matter here so whether I’m making bets, trying to make a DFS player pool, or finding a tiebreaker between 2 similar plays, I will always side with strong course history over most anything this week. Below are the 8 players I believe can win this week with the last 8 weeks on TOUR and their results as long as their course history since 2012. I think the only guys who “fit” the criteria that I don’t have much interest would be both Kuchar and Leishman as their history is strong and I think could be some solid low owned values on DraftKings/FanDuel, but it’s tough to see them winning with how they’ve played this year. Rickie Fowler hasn’t been good AT ALL, but similar to Spieth, who hasn’t been playing well by any means the last 18-24 months, something seems different when they show up here and their current form goes out the window when they’re at a place they love to play and have had success at in year’s past.
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance:
- SG: APP Blend (175+ yards)
- SG: OTT (with emphasis on Driving Distance)
- SG: Putting (emphasis on FAST greens/Bentgrass)
- SG: T2G
- GIRs Gained
- BoB Gained
- SG: ARG
Above are the stats that I think have been and will continue to be the most important for competing at Augusta. One that was found to be extremely predictive was by Colin Drew, of Daily Roto (@drewby417 on Twitter) was SG: Off-The-Tee. This would coincide with the importance of Driving to Apex and Going for the Green as clearly Driving Distance can be a distinct advantage. SG: OTT the tee here actually ranks up very highly in correlation with SG: APP which is rare, as most tournaments see SG: APP being at least 2x or 3x MORE impactful than any other strokes gained measurement. Further, the ability to hit these tough to nail greens and scramble across the lightning fast bentgrass will keep you in the hunt as well. Target elite ball strikers who are good with long irons, longer hitters are preferred, and can scramble when they get into trouble. Here is my preliminary Top 10 based on the stats above (via FantasyNational.com), current form, Augusta National form, average DK Points over the last 5 events, and my predicted win and top 20 finish odds.
- Dustin Johnson
- Jon Rahm
- Bubba Watson
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Justin Thomas
- Patrick Cantlay
- Tony Finau
- Patrick Reed
Final Thoughts
This is the most anticipated golf tournaments of the year, and in my opinion, one of the most exciting and anticipated sporting events of the year so expect the unexpected. I often get sucked into analysis paralysis but things that are for certain are course history matters, SG: APP reigns supreme when it comes to stats (especially 175+ or so and longer), and although bad putters have won here (Spieth/Adam Scott), guys who can’t putt will struggle with how insanely fast and undulating the greens are even if it’s wet/colder. Following up on the SG: APP discussion, per Justin Ray from 15th Hole, the last 5 players to finish 1st for the week in SG: APP have finished on the leaderboard 1st/1st/2nd/3rd/1st… so I think there’s some definite predictability there… there will be a ton of concentrated ownership on guys but my best advice is to really try and trim down your player pool because although there are 93 official entrants, let’s say the bottom 20 or so are previous champions who have almost no shot to win and so when we have a condensed field with a high % of the field making the cut, it’s important to not spread yourself too thin. Some hot (or not so hot) takes for this year’s tournament:
Winner: Patrick Cantlay
Top 5: Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler
Top 10: Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith, Lee Westwood
Top 20 finishers: Sebastian Munoz, Lanto Griffin, Zach Johnson, Tiger Woods
Misses the Cut: Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Wolff, Bryson DeChambeau, Colin Morikawa
Make the Cut: Vijay Singh, Bernhard Langer
