US Open 2019 Preview

Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, CA

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7075 yards
• Designer: Jack Neville/Douglas Grant (1919) with updates by Arnold Palmer in the late 2000’s
• Fairways: Poa Annua/Ryegrass
• Rough: Ryegrass and will probably be very thick (around 4 inches)
• Greens: Poa and expected about 12-13 on the stimp (faster than tour average)
• Average Green Size: 3500 sq. ft. (VERY SMALL; SMALLEST ON TOUR)
• Heavily bunkered (118 on the course)
• Coastal/Links Style
• Field: 156 players
• Most Recent Scoring Averages
  • 2010 U.S. Open: 74.98 (+3.98 OVER par)
  • 2000 US Open: 75.31 (+4.31 OVER par) including an average of 77.1 in Round 3
• Corollary Courses (via conditions/US Opens): Bethpage Black, Monterey Peninsula, Oakmont CC, Spyglass Hill
• 2010 Cut Line: +7/2000 Cut Line: +6

I feel like we just got done watching Brooks Koepka dominate yet another major and we’re already to the 3^rd of the year, normally the toughest major of them all, the US Open. This year it heads back to one of the most iconic courses in all of golf, Pebble Beach. In my opinion, and it is not because of my fandom for him, but Tiger’s victory at Pebble in 2000 en route to the “Tiger Slam” is the most dominant victory in all of sports as he finished so clear ahead of the field in what were very difficult conditions that it was pure some of the best golf ever played through the years. He finished at -12 with the next closest finisher at… +3. In round 3 amongst swirling winds and brutal conditions, the field average 6+ over par while he shot even… it was an utter route and solidified him as a force that no man could match. The difficult conditions segue way into one of the biggest factors players will be presented with at Pebble: wind. As most know, it’s a coastal course that features many holes along, or near, the ocean (including the last 5/6 holes) and the wind can not only be strong but extremely unpredictable throughout all 4 rounds. Famously, in 1992 en route to his US Open victory, Tom Kite needed a 6 iron from 110 yards to reach the green. Yes, you read that correctly. Depending on the wind we could see a simple flip wedge or a hard mid-iron for players to get into position on that hole. (Side note: when I played Pebble several years ago I birdied 7… no biggie). Further of note, I would caution all to look at scoring, pin positions, and overall performance from the yearly AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am that’s played in February. Playing here in February is completely different than the summer as conditions then will be softer, the greens will be less bumpy, and when you have amateurs playing around the course, the pin locations will be some of the easier you see all year along with the rough cut down so guys aren’t shooting 150. The fairway widths are VERY small (according to reports from the course), but with the USGA leading the charge here, you never know, and you can always assume they will fuck it up and make it way too easy or simply impossible. Thanks Mike Davis. The rough will definitely be thick and I expect the greens to be running around 12-13 on the stimp, depending on other course conditions. It is more key than ever here to be able to scramble and make long par putts, similar to most US Opens, but these greens especially are so heavily sloped and undulated that hitting to the correct part of the green and leaving it below the hole will be essential. These greens are TINY so many will be missed but miss over the green and leave yourself short-sided, you’re staring at a bogey or double pretty easily. For context, out of the entire field in 2000 and 2010, Tiger Woods is the only one to finish under par… it’s tough.

Below I have posted the most recent edition of the US Open played at Pebble (2010) with the average score per hole, Birdie-or-Better (BoB%) rate, and some hole by hole notes. The 2^nd table shows the course broken down by par type with average approach, average score per hole type, and their respective BoB rate.

 

 

 

As we look above, what jumps out to me is something you almost never see on the PGA TOUR and that is a Par 5 average score that’s over par… whoa. This course is known to have difficult Par 3s as 3 of 4 are 200+ yards on average and with 2 or 3 of the Par 4s playing over 500 yards we can expect an over par rate there as well but Par 5s are normally where players do damage. As described above, the wind plays such a factor that holes like 18 seem like they’re an easy birdie for the DJ/Rory/Brooks’ of the world but miss that fairway or catch a snap hook to the left, you’re trying to scramble to save bogey. #14, a very long par 5 but still technically reachable in 2, played as the 3^rd hardest hole on the course in 2010! A Par 5 that averages almost half a stroke over par shows just how penalizing missing the fairway is or how ending up in the bunker off the tee. When you view the hole course snapshot, you’ll see that only 2 holes even play under par, with one being the relatively short and easy Par 5 6^th. When there are 3 Par 5s with only 1 playing under par we can immediately deduce how key bogey avoidance, and for that matter double bogey avoidance, is and although it can be noisy, key in on the 5-15 feet putting range where a ton of putts for par will be attempted. Below is a short list of players in this year’s field that have played in at least one US Open here at Pebble and although it may not mean much as players are different, the course will be altered quite a bit, and that you have to consider form/other factors, it at least gives a sense of some guys who have had some experience of a US Open at Pebble experience.

Some of the names you might expect to see such as Tiger or Ernie, both who were at high points in their careers during these tournaments but also interesting to see guys like Brandt (not the longest hitter but a fantastic wind player), or Furyk, who has made the cut here both times, is currently having a one of his best years on TOUR.

Correlating Stats and Courses

In the fast facts section, I noted that Pebble Beach is designed by Jack Neville, whom only designed this famous track and one other municipal so it is hard to track down and identify similar stats and course types; however, what I did was take what I felt had similar attributes to both Pebble and US Open courses in general and came up with Bethpage Black, Monterey Peninsula, Oakmont (2016 US Open), Pebble Beach history, and Spyglass Hill. 2 of the 3, Monterey and Spyglass, are played as 2 of the 3 in the annual AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and while Monterey is normally a birdie fest, it is a similar coastal type course. Spyglass, on the other hand, is very difficult and normally yields the least number of birdies of the three-course rotation. Oakmont and Bethpage I felt were decently strong corollary courses as they both have hittable fairways, extreme penal rough, and the winning scores will be either in the low single digits or around even par. Almost none of the players in the field have logged 50 rounds at these particular courses so, via Fantasynational.com, I took SG: Total over 24 rounds and when I selected these, I got the following results (also of note, Sergio only had 8 rounds, Woodland 11 rounds, Louis 12 rounds, Justin Thomas 11 rounds, Dufner 12 rounds):

1. Jason Day
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Jon Rahm
6. Patrick Reed
7. Sergio Garcia
8. Jim Furyk
9. Paul Casey
10. Shane Lowry
11. Gary Woodland
12. Louis Oosthuizen
13. Richard H. Lee
14. Matt Jones
15. Kevin Na
16. Zach Johnson
17. Jason Dufner
18. Branden Grace
19. Patrick Cantlay
20. Brooks Koepka
21. Bubba Watson
22. Chez Reavie
23. Brandt Snedeker
24. Justin Thomas
25. Justin Rose

Some of these results are expected: Phil has a strong Pebble career, Day is a world class ball striker, Dustin won at Oakmont, Reed won at Bethpage, Furyk has a solid Pebble record, etc.; however, I didn’t expect to see names like Woodland, Matt Jones, Kevin Na, Branden Grace, or Chez Reavie. When you dive deeper, several of these courses are obviously wind dependent and on this list, we see Snedeker, Casey, Sergio, Day, Furyk, Dufner, and Dustin, whom all are in the Top 15 of total SG: Total on FantasyNational when you filter in “Windy AF” conditions (great name).

Key Stats and Stats Needed to Compete

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G/SG: BS
• All Around Ranking
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-125/200+)
• Driving Blend (Total Driving/SG: OTT/Fairways Gained)
• Scrambling
• SG: Putting Blend (emphasis on inside 15 feet)
• Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance

Above are the stats that I, at least as this moment, will be focusing on for the 2019 US Open. However, for what has now become a staple of major previews is looking at Steve Bamford’s US Open preview (golfbettingsystem.co.uk), again, an EXTREMELY sharp bettor, whom has identified some interesting stats and trends. As lead in form is always an important factor in the US Open, and any tournament for that matter, the ones that stick out are “All Around Rank,” (AAR) “Total Driving,” and SG: Off-The-Tee (SG: OTT) in the player’s previous event to the US Open. Of the nine previous US Open winners, none ranked worse than 13^th in AAR in their previous event, while none fared worse than 25^th in Total Driving. If we look at Martin Kaymer in 2014 he came after ranking 1^st in Total Driving and 1^st in All Around Rank over in Europe at the BMW PGA Championship. In 2016, at Oakmont, Dustin Johnson ranked 2^nd in All Around Rank and 1^st in Total Driving at the St. Jude.  A few of the more expected stats that are key to success would be GIR%, Ball Striking, Scrambling, and a putting blend that puts an emphasis on the par saving distance of 0-15 feet or thereabouts. Below are my initial stat ranks based on my criteria via FNGC over 4 key time periods: (I will put All Around Ranking, Total Driving, and SG: OTT ranks at the bottom of this preview):

For some context on the above table, the color coding goes as follows: the green highlights represent those who appear in the Top 25 stat rankings in all 4 time periods of 12, 24, 50, and 100 rounds, the light blue are for those who appear in 3 of 4 periods, yellow for 2 of 4, and orange for 1 of 4. You will see a ton of green for the players we would expect: those whom have been dominant for many years or who the last 2-3 years have torn up the TOUR, such as DJ, Brooks, Tiger, Kuchar, Casey, etc. others like Day, Rose, Xander, Webb, Furyk, etc. maybe have had a bit of a down year or just barely missed out on being in the Top 25. I think the players who show up in either 2 of 4 or 1 of 4 are some potential interesting and surprising, in both a good and bad way. For example, I didn’t think I would see Brian Stuard show up as a Top 25 stats player in both the 24 and 50 rounds timeframe; I didn’t except to see Bryson only show up in long term form (he’s had an off year but was so great in 2018); Justin Thomas had been fantastic until he was injured from the Masters to the Memorial last week; Rory Sabbatini has had a fantastic year thus far so him being in the Top 25 as of recent makes sense and lastly, Billy Horschel, whom I haven’t paid much attention shows up as a solid recent performer. I think a big shocker is the normally killer of all stats, Tony Finau, not being ranked inside the Top 25 of any time period, as his game, aside from the Masters, hasn’t been in the best form in 2019. Again, this is only stats based and represents a blend of what I think will be important to succeed here, but it’s certainly not an “end all be all” by any means. Jimmy Walker has been playing much better, Spieth starting to find his form maybe? Rose is one of the best in the world but hasn’t been as rock solid lately? All interesting narratives…

Final Thoughts

I started off my final thoughts for the PGA Championship by saying “anything can happen,” and although that isn’t groundbreaking by any means, it’s always important to remember that when placing bets or setting lineups in DraftKings during majors. There WILL be a Top 10 player who misses the cut, completely ejects in Round 2, shoots a high score in Round 3 to take himself out of it, and so on and so forth. There WILL be a guy who putts the lights out all 4 days, does nothing with his irons or driver, and backdoors his way to a Top 20 or maybe even a Top 10 finish. I think our biggest edge is to accept those things are going to happen but try to find guys who in both the long AND short term have proven they can deal with pressure, can deal with making a double bogey (which WILL happen), and save pars when faced with a 20-foot breaker. Further, and this is nearly impossible to quantify, but you want to target players who may be smarter when it comes to playing Pebble. What does that mean? Seeing as this is played in June, the course will be firm and fast, the greens will be unreceptive to long irons, and players who leave themselves with putts above the hole will be dead in the water in no time. A smart player might snap one in the rough, hack out, take their medicine by playing an iron to the front of the green for a possible 20-foot par save. Will they always save it? No. But that’s the kind of mentality you want at a US Open and especially at Pebble. Part of what puts guys like Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, and Tiger Woods consistently to the top of the leaderboards is their ability to deal with adversity and shake off a 3-putt bogey, a double, or even a triple. Take Brooks at his last major: he has a commanding lead, is in on the back nine of Sunday, and rattles off 3 bogeys. He has that non-caring attitude that doesn’t make him implode or just fold up like a lawn chair (see Jon Rahm, Bubba Watson, Thomas Pieters, Sergio Garcia… to name a few hot heads). For a few last stats/narratives: target strong Poa/fast green putters, strong Scramblers, GIR specialists, and Fairway Specialists. You want guys who of course can take advantage of the few birdie opportunities they might have per round, but we should be much more focused on scramblers and par savers when navigating around Pebble Beach.

Tiger #16.

Below is a table with All Around Ranking (AAR), Total Driving Rank (TD), and SG: Off-The-Tee (SG: OTT) Rank for 2019. It is sorted by their overall average and excludes those whom do not have a ranking (i.e. European Tour players who don’t have enough rounds logged or those who might not have enough rounds this year on the PGA TOUR to qualify for a ranking).