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Course(s): TPC Scottsdale

Fast Facts

• TPC Scottsdale Par 71; ≈ 7200 yards
• Average Cut: Even to -2
• Field: 132 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Pete Dye Stadium Course (The American Express)
  • Memorial Park GC (Houston Open 2020/2021)
  • Silverado (Fortinent/Safeway Open)
  • TPC Boston (NORTHERN TRUST)
  • TPC Sumerlin (Shriners Open)

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Ball-Striking (SG: OTT + SG: APP)
• SG: APP
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained
• Scrambling
• SG: Putting

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($11,000) → pOWN%: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: BS – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 5^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 4^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 22^nd/4^th // 6^th/3^rd

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 101^st // 14^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 77^th // 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 20^th // 5^th // 5^th // 12^th // 18^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 13^th // 3^rd // 3^rd // 17^th // MC // MC // 17^th  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 5

Course Fit Rank: 3^rd

Notes: It seems like my hope of JT maybe going slightly overlooked won’t come true as JT should probably be 15-20% owned but I still love him this week as “leverage” (if you can call it that) off what should be a 20-25% owned Rahm (and for good reason); JT has not lost strokes to the field (i.e. his SG: Total has been positive, per tournament) since last year’s Genesis in which he’s only missed 1 cut in those 18 events with a win, 4 T5s, and the only glaring weakness of his compared to Rahm is, obviously, the putter! JT will always run the risk of gassing it away on the greens, but I kind of like for GPPs his recent putting in which it’s bad, but can spike (gained 1.3 at Farmers, finished T20 // gained 4.5 at the NORTHERN TRUST last year, finished T4) when he gets it rolling… love the stats, love the course history

2) Scottie Scheffler ($9,100) → pOWN%: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: BS – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 9^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 11^th // 6^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 5^th

• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th/56^th // 2^nd/10^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 47^th // 7^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 65^th // 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 20^th // 25^th // 2^nd // 57^th // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 7^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 15^th

Notes: Coming in with 2 straight T25 finishes and 2 T5s in his last 5 starts, Scheffler seems like an ideal fit for this course long-term: great on Par 5s, great distance and overall SG: OTT game, and while his short game is below average, he CAN get very hot and rack up birdies/eagles in a hurry; it’s encouraging to see that in just his 2^nd start he finished T7 last year and I love him at this price in all formats

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Adam Scott ($8,500) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: BS – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 10^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 19^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 26^th // 15^th

• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 48^th/51^st // 21^st/30^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 67^th // 29^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 59^th // 28^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 9^th // 10^th // 37^th // 54^th // 5^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 32^nd

Notes: I almost always take a risk on Scott as he won’t pop in any stat models due to his limited starts (this is first PGA event since the RSM in November) and if you just look at his “recent form” on the PGA (which isn’t all that recent), he has 1 T5, a MC, and some middling finishes; however, Scott has come T9/T10 in his last 2 European Tour (now “DP World Tour” I guess) starts at the end of January, gaining strokes on APP/OTT/Putting in both of them… I will take a shot on Scott’s long-term form as one of the better ball strikers in the world and hope he’s not missing every 4 footer in the desert

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Jon Rahm → pOWN%: 25%

Play/Fade/Context: LOL, Rahm has finishes of T3 and T2 in 2 of his last 3 starts and hasn’t played that well, he has come T9 or better in 8 of his last 10 starts on the PGA, and has played this event 6 times and never finished worse than T16… fade at your own risk

Xander Schauffele → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: If Xander is going to be around 15% or so owned, then I could have some interest as he’s played here 4 times with finishes of T2/T16/T10/T17… pretty stout! What concerns me is 1) that he’s never low owned and 2) his iron play has been suspect over his last several tournaments combined with mediocre finishes as on first glance we see 2 T12s, but one came in the 38-man field in Hawaii (no cut) and one was a T12 at the Hero World Challenge, an 18-man field (no cut)… I’m sure if I don’t play him he’ll make the cut on the number and then backdoor a T5, so it’s a moot point

Viktor Hovland → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: It would be hard to give any true negatives on Viktor’s game as he has 3 wins in his last 5 worldwide starts (yes one was at the Hero, but still), as well as a T4 in the strong Abu Dhabi field a few weeks ago; Viktor’s OTT game is spectacular, his APP game is strong, and he has the pedigree, but my pause is 1) a lack of course history as he only has 1 start here, 2 years ago, and he MC and 2) the short game is ALWAYS iffy as he’s lost strokes putting in 7 of his last 8 measured PGA events

Webb Simpson → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context: I think Webb probably gets chalkier than 14-15% but I think he’s extremely mispriced as a former winner here to go along with 7 of 8 made cuts at TPC Scottsdale that includes the win in 2020 and a T2/T10/T8/T14/T20 in that span… I’m hoping people see his horrendous stats from the Sony where he lost nearly everywhere and finished T61 as I’ll give him somewhat of a “pass” as it was his first competitive tournament since the RSM in November

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (36 players):

Plays

1) Corey Conners ($8,300) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: BS – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 5^th // 3^rd

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 25^th // 15^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 41^st // 21^st

• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 5^th/24^th // 4^th/14^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 96^th // 38^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 70^th // 32^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // 11^th // 22^nd // 17^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 17^th // 45^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 49^th

Notes: I hope people see 2 MC next to Conners and keep his ownership low because his ball striking has remained supreme despite the 2 lackluster starts at Torrey/the Amex… Conners has gained strokes OTT in every single measured event in the last YEAR with the Genesis in 2021 the last time he lost strokes to the field off the tee; over that same period, he’s gained strokes on APP in every single event but 3… his Achilles heel will always be the putter, which is normally awful, but he’s too cheap for his ball-striking upside + he came T17 here last year

2) Talor Gooch ($7,800) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: BS – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 16^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 9^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 47^th // 24^th

• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th/19^th // 6^th/10^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 78^th // 33^rd

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 93^rd // 34^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 20^th // MC // 27^th // 15^th // 1^st  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 61^st // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 21^st

Notes: Not sure what DK did to Gooch’s price this week at sub 8k, but nevertheless, Gooch has made 10 of his last 11 cuts with 2 T5s, a win, and 4 T20s in that time frame; further, he’s gained strokes on APP in his last nine (9!!!) events and gained T2G in 7 of those 9… his course history isn’t great, but I’d also argue he’s a much different player than year’s past after getting his first win a few months ago

3) Pat Perez ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: BS – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 39^th // 21^st

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 16^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 23^rd // 13^th

• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 28^th/48^th // 14^th/29^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 44^th // 19^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 40^th // 17^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 9^th // 6^th // MC // MC // 52^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – MC // WD // MC // 26^th // 11^th // MC // 19^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 61^st

Notes: Patty P seems to be heating up as he’s now posted back to back T10 finishes and while he’s a resident of (and was born) the Scottsdale area, he hasn’t played this event a ton and MC the last year in his first start since 2017 (where he WD); I like Perez’s form, I like that he’s gained strokes on APP and T2G in 3 straight events and he seems like a great value for cash games and a strong GPP target

 

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Keegan Bradley ($7,200) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: BS – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 5^th    

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 6^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 89^th // 38^th

• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 63^rd/7^th // 27^th/3^rd

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 118^th // 43^rd

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 126^th // 47^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 65^th // 12^th // MC // 32^nd // 7^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – 22^nd // 49^th // 67^th // 43^rd // MC // 24^th // 17^th // MC // 24^th // 15^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 33^rd   

Notes: What’s another week of Keegan tilt? I mentioned this on the pod, but it’s funny that the DFS community (definitely me included) tilts Keegan most weeks considering he’s consistent if nothing else… that applies to his course history here too with 8 of 10 made cuts, no finish better than 15^th but 5 of those 10 finishes T25 or better; this course fits Keegan perfectly (as do many on TOUR) as he remains an elite ball striker and while his upside is most likely capped by his short game, at only 7200, we’re looking for a made cut with upside which is exactly what he brings us this week

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Russell Henley → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: I like Henley A LOT this week; however, I don’t think I’ll be alone in that feeling as Henley will most likely be one of the higher owned plays, not to mention his outright odds were hammered on Monday down to 30/1 on DKSB; I like Henley as a staple cash game play as he’s made 10 straight cuts, has gained over 4 strokes T2G in 9 of his last 12 starts (wow!), and is an elite Bermuda putter… if he gets steamed more to the 20+% ownership, I think he’s worth a game theory fade in GPPs

Luke List → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: List winning the Farmers was certainly not a fluke as he’s been in good form and always a stand-out in any stat model; I like that he took a week off instead of getting his first win then immediately playing again and while the short game will let us down more often than not, I like him in MME/20 max as well as using him in 3 max tournaments at what should be reasonable pOWN%

Mito Pereira → pOWN%: 12%

Play/Fade/Context: I love Mito in the longer term but if he’s going to be the “cheap value” chalk this week at 7k (which is, for what it’s worth, too cheap), I’m fine fading; his recent form hasn’t been as strong as he’s lost strokes T2G in 3 of his last 4 starts, lost on APP in 2 of his last 4 and been riding a very hot putter… I like guys around him, Ortiz/Hadwin/Perez, etc. as strong pivots

OTHERS I LIKE: Keith Mitchell // Matt Kuchar // Denny McCarthy // Carlos Ortiz

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (75 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Adam Hadwin ($6,900) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: Hadwin has slowly but surely been gearing back into some form as he has a T16/T25 in 2 of his last 3 starts, has gained on APP in 3 straight events and an above-average (or better) historical putter, once that comes back around he has T10 or better upside; per his stats, Hadwin is 10^th in the field in GIRs Gained, 7^th in Bogey Avoidance, and hits a ton of fairways… his course history doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s worth noting he’s made his last 6 cuts at TPC Scottsdale with 2 T20s or better

2) Patton Kizzire ($6,500) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Ideal GPP target most weeks as he’s very volatile and will rack up a TON of birdies some rounds and even it out with several bogeys… Kizzire ranks 20^th in the field in Opportunities Gained (a FantasyNational stat that tracks approach shots of 15 feet or less) and Top 30 in Bogey Avoidance; his course history is blah; however, at only 6500 he’s made 5 of 6 cuts here and that’s more than enough to hit some value if he makes the cut (especially since he can get scorching hot and fire a 63 or 65)

3) Sepp Straka ($6,400) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Can be pretty volatile, like Kizzire, but has been striking the ball great the last several tournaments, gaining on APP in 4 of his last 5 measured events, gaining T2G and OTT in 3 of his last 5 measured events, and coming off 3 straight made cuts with a T16 at the Farmers 2 weeks ago; at this price, there will always be flaws (or many flaws), ,but at only 6400 I like the upside here as he ranks 33^rd in the field in SG: APP, 24^th in GIRs Gained, and Top 40 in BoB and Bogey Avoidance

4) James Hahn ($6,200) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: WD last week after testing positive for COVID-19 but feels very underpriced for how he’s been ball striking it… ranks 31^st in the field in SG: BS, 32^nd SG: APP, 19^th GIRs Gained, and although not a “key stat” for me this week, he ranks 11^th in Fairways Gained; I believe Hahn was leading last year through the front nine on Sunday before gagging it away but his course history is very strong for near min price with 7 of 9 made cuts that includes a T10 last year and 4 other T25 finishes or better

 

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Viktor Hovland

3) Scottie Scheffler

4) Louis Oosthuizen

5) Webb Simpson

6) Corey Conners

7) Russell Henley

8) Luke List

9) Denny McCarthy (Keegan too… if you have the balls)

10) Pat Perez

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% Course Comp Rank, and 10% Course History

1. Jon Rahm
2. Hideki Matsuyama
3. Justin Thomas
4. Daniel Berger
5. Russell Henley
6. Luke List
7. Scottie Scheffler
8. Viktor Hovland
9. Tom Hoge
10. Patrick Cantlay
11. Webb Simpson
12. Seamus Power
13. Sam Burns
14. Harold Varner III
15. Adam Scott
16. Talor Gooch
17. Pat Perez
18. Andrew Putnam
19. Troy Merritt
20. Hudson Swafford