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Course: Copperhead (Innisbrook), Palm Harbor, FL

***Note: Limited write ups on players this week as I am (like many) behind on content due to the Monday PLAYERS Finish!***

Fast Facts

• Copperhead (Innisbrook) Par 71; ≈ 7300 yards
• Average Cut: +2
• Field: 144 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Champ)
  • TPC Sawgrass (PLAYERS)
  • TPC Scottsdale (WMPO)
  • PGA National (Honda Classic)
  • East Lake (TOUR Champ)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Alex Noren, Jhonattan Vegas, Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150+ yards)
• Good Drives Gained
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Par 5s
• SG: Putting (emphasis on Bermuda)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (19 players):

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($11,000) → pOWN%: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 2^nd // 1^st

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 3^rd

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 11^th // 4^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 10^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 6^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 72^nd // 18^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // 6^th // 8^th // 20^th // 5^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 13^th // MC // 18^th // 10^th  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 2^nd

Notes: 3 T20s here in 4 starts and while the putter lets him down constantly, his bogey avoidance is very strong as shown by an extremely impressive -3 last week in gusting winds… JT/Morikawa are the best iron players in the world and JT comes in with no MC since last year’s PGA Championship, has gained on APP in every event since the last year’s Open Championship, and gained strokes ball striking in his last 10 measured events

2) Alex Noren ($8,500) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 6^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 7^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 3^rd

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 71^st // 18^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 4^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 8^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 37^th // 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 26^th // 5^th // 48^th // 6^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 21^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: I rarely play Noren but I love the course fit, I like his form with 5 straight made cuts that include a T6/T5/T26 and finished T21 at Copperhead last year in his only start at the Valspar; has gained strokes on APP in 6 straight events, T2G in 5 straight events and feels like a great price with solid upside

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Gary Woodland ($8,500) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 10^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 17^th // 5^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 85^th // 15^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 9^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 7^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 5^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 5^th // 5^th // MC // 39^th        

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – MC // MC // MC // 58^th // 42^nd // MC // 8^th // MC // 29^th // 1^st

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 22^nd

Notes: If mega-chalk Keegan wasn’t $100 less I feel like Woodland could be 18-20% owned… gained strokes on APP in his last 3 and I like targeting him on courses that are classified as “less than driver” and tougher scoring (similar to Honda, a comp course, where he finished T5 a few weeks ago); hasn’t played great here the last few trips but has played it the last 10 years and won it back in 2011

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Viktor Hovland → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: Hovland can (and will) win pretty much anywhere but his short game really is an issue and at one of the highest owned on a course that really tests your around the green game/par saving ability, I’ll fade for other studs most likely

Matt Fitzpatrick → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: People are too sharp these days as a few years ago if a guy missed a cut he’d be 5% owned the next week but everyone likes the course fit, his short game, and targeting Fitz on harder courses… I prefer guys around him as I never play Fitz, especially as chalk

Louis Oosthuizen → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: Louis has great history here but again, chalky, and he hasn’t looked AS SHARP as normal… feels overpriced to me even in a less than elite field and he needs to gain a ton of strokes with the putter to pay off this price tag in my opinion

Jason Kokrak → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: I liked Kokrak when pricing came out with 3 straight T15 finishes at this course, is an elite Par 3 scorer, and has made 7 straight cuts on TOUR; I’ll let ownership dictate what I do with Kokrak but I will most likely still play him if he’s owned (and maybe overpriced) as he’s putting well right now and has legitimate winning upside

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (38 players):

Plays

1) Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 20^th // 11^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 37^th // 17^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 50^th // 17^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 34^th // 10^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 31^st // 10^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 3^rd

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 82^nd // 22^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 42^nd // 55^th // 8^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 48^th // MC // MC (note: 48^th in 2021 and MCs were in 2015/2012)

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 9^th

Notes: I’ll look past Vegas getting destroyed in the tough weather last week as his stats have been great this season; if we ignore last week’s carnage, before that Vegas had gained 2+ strokes on APP in each of his previous 3 events, has gained OTT in 7 of his last 8 measured events and is a great Par 5 scorer

2) Matthias Schwab ($7,300) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 31^st // 15^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 71^st // 26^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 44^th // 14^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 8^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 4^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 1^st      

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 33^rd // 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 7^th // 7^th // 49^th // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 56^th

Notes: Take his stats with a grain of salt as Schwab has limited ShotLink rounds on TOUR; however, he’s coming into Valspar with 2 straight T7 finishes, including one at a comp course at PGA National, and in his limited stats has shown to be at least an average Bermuda putter; don’t see him being very owned as he plays predominantly on the European Tour and has strong cut making upside at only 7300

3) Patton Kizzire ($7,200) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 34^th // 16^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 12^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 50^th // 17^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 9^th // 4^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 62^nd // 20^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 23^rd // 6^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 6^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 22^nd // 32^nd // 61^st // 10^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 60^th // 60^th // MC // 33^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 94^th

Notes: Don’t love that he’s getting buzz but his form has been very solid with 6 made cuts in his last 7 starts, a T22 last week, and has gained strokes on APP in his last 4 starts and 6 of his last 7; the Scrambling/around the green game has vastly improved this season, his best putting surface by far is Bermuda and if he can avoid the big numbers/make the cut, he has T20 or better upside

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Nick Taylor ($7,300) → pOWN%: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 5^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 41^st // 18^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 29^th // 11^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 91^st // 26^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 2^nd

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 7^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 111^th // 33^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 32^nd // 16^th // MC // 14^th // 30^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – MC // 24^th // MC // 62^nd // MC // 24^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 52^nd

Notes: Taylor finished T16 at the Honda Classic (comp course), T32 at Bay Hill (comp course), and has made his last 7 of 8 cuts on TOUR; the APP game can be up and down, but he’s gained over 3 strokes T2G in 3 of his last 4 events, has positive T2G in 6 of his last 7 measured events, and no one ever (including this week) owns him

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Russell Knox → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: I’m in indifferent on Knox as he always burns me, but he’s certainly playing well… the short game is still horrendous and as a chalky 8100 option, which is expensive, I’ll probably pass as at that price I would want more win equity

Adam Hadwin → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: Strong short game and has won at this course which in tandem with his finish last week should make him one of the more popular players on the slate; Hadwin’s form is solid”ish” with a T9/T16/T26 and 2 MC in his last 5 starts but if he keeps getting steamed I will probably pivot in GPPs and use him as a strong floor play in cash

Keegan Bradley → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: Oh man a chalky Keegan… for those who don’t know, this is the tournament that started the term “Full Keegan” as he was FRL a few years ago and then MC… LOL; the only reason for fading Keegan here is the pOWN% as the form is good with a T5/T11/T12 in 3 of his last 6 starts and a T2 at Valspar last year so if I use him I will definitely be contrarian up top and in the 7k… you’ve been warned though about Keegan Chalk!

OTHERS I LIKE: Webb Simpson // Cameron Tringale // Adam Svensson

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (84 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Pat Perez ($6,900) → pOWN%: 6%

Quick Hits: Never feels great to back Perez as he’s pretty volatile, but I love his odds to make the cut and he’s only 6900; strong fairway finder (don’t need distance here) and ranks very high in some of my key stats: 7^th in the field in SG: Par 5s, 19^th in BoB, 18^th in Scrambling, and 12^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda

2) Brian Stuard ($6,700) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Like Perez his lack of distance won’t hurt him here and while his history isn’t “great” he does have a lot of experience with 7 previous starts at Copperhead with a T18 2 years ago; Stuard ranks 3^rd in the field in Good Drives Gained as he hits a TON of fairways and ranks Top 50 in the field in SG: T2G, P4 scoring from 400-450, and Bogey Avoidance

3) Graeme McDowell ($6,700) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Maybe I’m falling for a narrative but I do like McDowell on tougher courses that don’t require distance; coming off a T13 at the API, has gained strokes in his last 4 events, his best putting surface by far is Bermuda, and McDowell is one of the better Par 3 scorers in the field (5 this week)

4) Troy Merritt ($6,600) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: Going to rate out as a top point-per-dollar option in most models at only 6600, but Merritt does have a T8 and a T6 at Valspar; the stats have been a little ugly since his T4 at Pebble as he’s lost strokes T2G and on APP in 3 straight but he is Top 50 in the field in Bogey Avoidance and SG: Putting on Bermuda so worth a shot to me in GPPs

5) Kramer Hickok ($6,500) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Continues to play great and should be in the low 7k range in my opinion… ranks 20^th in the field in SG: Ball Striking, 22^nd in SG: Par 5s, Top 40 in GIRs Gained/BoB/P4s 400-450; Hickok has gained strokes on APP in 5 of his last 8 events, gained OTT in 6 of his last 8, and I love him as a very cheap 6500 with T20 or T30 upside

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas

2) Collin Morikawa

3) Sam Burns

4) Abraham Ancer

5) Jason Kokrak

6) Alex Noren

7) Keegan Bradley

8) Patton Kizzire

9) Joel Dahmen

10) Pat Perez

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course Comp Rank, and 5% Course History

1. Viktor Hovland
2. Justin Thomas
3. Keegan Bradley
4. Gary Woodland
5. Alex Noren
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Shane Lowry
8. Dustin Johnson
9. Matt Fitzpatrick
10. Collin Morikawa
11. Adam Hadwin
12. Tyrrell Hatton
13. Russell Knox
14. Harold Varner III
15. Sam Burns
16. Kevin Kisner
17. Matthias Schwab
18. Tommy Fleetwood
19. Jason Kokrak
20. Jason Day