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Course: The Old Course (St. Andrews), Fife, Scotland

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7300 yards with 14 Par 4s (2 Par 5s/2 Par 3s)
• Average Cut: +2/+3 (Avg. for Open Championship)
• Field: 156 players with Top 70 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Royal St. George’s
  • Royal Portrush
  • Royal Birkdale
  • Carnoustie
  • Royal Troon
  • Plantation Course at Kapalua
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 75-150 yards)
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: OTT
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves
• SG: Par 4s
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (20 players):

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,500) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 3^rd
• SG: Approach (75-150 yards emphasis) → 8^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 47^th
• SG: OTT → 8^th
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves → 14^th
• SG: Par 4s → 24^th
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance → 7^th // 24^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 37^th // 3^rd // MC // 1^st   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 40^th // 11^th // MC // MC // 53^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 3^rd

Notes: My favorite play of the 6 guys 10K+ given that he’s the best iron player in the world (in my opinion), elite wedge player, and shockingly enough has really improved his putting over the last few months… in fact, he’s only lost strokes putting in one of his last 8 events and that was -0.1 at the Charles Schwab! I hope that his mediocre Open Championship history keeps the ownership down because as long as the putter stays at least average and he avoids the big numbers, his ball striking/ARG game should have him in contention come Sunday

2) Shane Lowry ($9,300) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 4^th
• SG: Approach (75-150 yards emphasis) → 11^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 12^th
• SG: OTT → 20^th
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves → 23^rd
• SG: Par 4s → 8^th
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance → 48^th // 56^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 9^th // MC // 10^th // 32^nd // 23^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 12^th // 1^st // MC // MC // MC // MC // 9^th // 32^nd

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 17^th

Notes: Despite no wins, Lowry is arguably having one of the best years of his career with 3 Top 5s, 7 T15 finishes or better, and only 1 MC in the 2022 calendar year; a former Open Championship winner, Lowry is more than comfortable with the conditions/links-style courses and should excel on the Par 4s as the Old Course has 7 (!) holes under 400 yards/14 total in which Lowry ranks 8^th… lastly, with 112 bunkers on the course the real “hazards” lie in those pot bunkers where Lowry is one of the best in the field, ranking 3^rd in Sand Saves Gained

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($9,200) → pOWN%: 6%

• SG: T2G → 27^th
• SG: Approach (75-150 yards emphasis) → 5^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 50^th
• SG: OTT → 52^nd
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves → 101^st
• SG: Par 4s → 32^nd
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance → 140^th // 136^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // 24^th // 8^th // MC // 59^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – 8^th // 51^st // MC // 54^th // 9^th // 49^th // 12^th // 32^nd // 9^th  

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 6^th

Notes: I’m hoping people continue to play none of the LIV guys just because we all hate them now… DJ’s ball striking at the US Open was great, gaining in all strokes gained categories aside of putting… further, despite being weak/exhibition/who knows fields, he has finished 8^th/T3 in his last 2 starts on the LIV and has 4 finishes of T12 or better over his last 9 Open Championships

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Rory McIlroy → pOWN%: 22%

Xander Schauffele → pOWN%: 19%

Cameron Smith → pOWN%: 18%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (45 players):

Plays

1) Tony Finau ($8,400) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 1^st
• SG: Approach (75-150 yards emphasis) → 13^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 1^st
• SG: OTT → 5^th
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves → 12^th
• SG: Par 4s → 5^th
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance → 34^th // 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 13^th // MC // 2^nd // 4^th // 30^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 15^th // 3^rd // 9^th // 27^th // 18^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 10^th

Notes: Finau will surely be one of the chalkier plays on the slate but when we look at his stats + Open Champ history, he’s a tough fade… 1^st in the field T2G, 5^th SG: OTT, 5^th in Par 4 scoring, 1^st Bogey Avoidance, 2^nd in 3-Putt Avoidance; per his Open history, he has 4 finishes of T18 or better in 5 starts with no MC; elite stats + great event history + strong current form (made 8 of 9 last cuts with 3 T5s) makes Finau very underpriced and a great core play

2) Webb Simpson ($7,600) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 30^th
• SG: Approach (75-150 yards emphasis) → 38^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 88^th
• SG: OTT → 39^th
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves → 47^th
• SG: Par 4s → 51^st
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance → 106^th // 93^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 13^th // MC // 27^th // 20^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 19^th // 30^th // 12^th // 37^th // 39^th // 40^th // MC // 64^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 13^th

Notes: I’m a sucker for Webb and he just got done burning me with a MC in a horrendous JDC field a few weeks ago; however, before that event he had gained strokes on APP in 5 of his previous 6 events and despite being a short hitter ranks Top 40 in the field OTT as someone who hits a ton of fairways… his Open history isn’t too shabby as he’s made his last 6 cuts in a row with 2 T20s and at only 7600 we don’t need him to win or even come T10 but a made cut with some upside/limiting the bogeys on the weekend

3) Ryan Fox ($7,100) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 125^th
• SG: Approach (75-150 yards emphasis) → 66^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 76^th
• SG: OTT → 86^th
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves → 55^th
• SG: Par 4s → 104^th
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance → 132^nd // 123^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 47^th // 2^nd // 3^rd // MC // 2^nd    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 67^th // 16^th // 39^th // MC // 49^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 54^th

Notes: Don’t be scared off by the stats above as he plays limited PGA events so those are slightly skewed/older data; over on the DP World Tour he has been a machine with only 1 MC in 2022 (on the DP Tour that is) to go along with a win, 2 T2s, a T3, and 2 more T10s… Fox has a much improved ARG game, gaining in his last 5 events + has gained strokes on APP in 9 of his last 11 events; his Open history isn’t amazing but he has made 4 out of 5 cuts, including a made cut at the 2015 Open at St. Andrews

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Justin Rose ($7,400) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 45^th
• SG: Approach (75-150 yards emphasis) → 43^rd
• Bogey Avoidance → 132^nd
• SG: OTT → 29^th
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves → 123^rd
• SG: Par 4s → 54^th
• SG: Putting/3-Putt Avoidance → 6^th // 19^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 69^th // 37^th // 4^th // MC // 13^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – 46^th // 20^th // 2^nd // 54^th // 22^nd // 6^th // 23^rd // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 5^th

Notes: A horrendous Saturday at the Scottish last week is masking a bit how Rose played but nevertheless, I always like targeting him in majors no matter his form/stats as he has the ability to show up in these stronger fields (T13 at the PGA Champ/T37 at the US Open) and at only 7400, similar to Webb, we don’t need him to win but rather hold on if he makes the weekend and hope to not collapse to a T65 or worse finish… Rose has made his last 7 cuts at the Open that includes a T2/T20 in 2 of his last 3 and a T6 at the 2015 Open at St. Andrews

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Max Homa → pOWN%: 21%

Joaquin Niemann → pOWN%: 16%

Seamus Power → pOWN%: 13%

OTHERS I LIKE: Sungjae Im // Corey Conners // Adam Scott // Christiaan Bezuidenhout // Mito Pereira

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (94 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Keith Mitchell ($6,900) → pOWN%: 7%

Quick Hits: I don’t know why I can’t quit this guy, but he’s popping as a great value for me again this week… 39^th in the field SG: T2G, 14^th SG: OTT, 20^th SG: Par 4s, 23^rd Bogey Avoidance, 11^th BoB Gained, 21^st Sand Saves, and 4^th in SG: Putting; Mitchell comes in having made his last 6 cuts on TOUR including a T6/T7/T18 in 3 of his last 4 and while I wish he had better Open history and better 3-putt avoidance, at only 6900 I think he’s the worth the risk for the upside

2) Stewart Cink ($6800) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Former WINNER Stewmanji Cink comes in with decent form, making his last 2 cuts after 3 MC in a row and has finished T24/T20/T20 in 3 of his last 5 Open starts… he obviously comes with risk as he’s 1) old AF and 2) a volatile player who can make bogeys in a hurry; however, he does rank 26^th in the field in BoB, 22^nd in 3 putt avoidance, and has very, very sneaky distance (not a key stat for me, but Cink is 31^st in this field in Driving Distance)

3) Sam Horsfield ($6,700) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Closing it out with another LIV guy, Horsfield is having a strong year with a win, 2 T5s, and 4 T21 finishes or better out of 10 total events; yes, similar to DJ the fields are pretty bad on the LIV but he has finished T5/T11 in the last 2 and with very limited to no stats on the PGA, I doubt many will click his name; he has a strong short game, strong iron play, and up/down OTT game but I think he has a great chance at the cut + upside into a T30 or better which would be great for only 6700 and sub 5% owned

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas

2) Jordan Spieth

3) Xander Schauffele

4) Will Zalatoris

5) Tommy Fleetwood

6) Tony Finau

7) Mito Pereira

8) Keegan Bradley

9) Ryan Fox

10) Joohyung Kim

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course History, & 10% of my course comp model ranking

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Matt Fitzpatrick
5. Justin Thomas
6. Tony Finau
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Jordan Spieth
10. Will Zalatoris
11. Tommy Fleetwood
12. Sam Burns
13. Jon Rahm
14. Max Homa
15. Cameron Smith
16. Shane Lowry
17. T. Poston
18. Collin Morikawa
19. Keegan Bradley
20. Joaquin Niemann