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Course: Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, HI

Fast Facts

• Par 70; ≈ 7000 yards (short for PGA TOUR average)
• Average Cut is -1 or -2
• Field: 144 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses: (Top players by course listed after each)
  • Port Royal (Bermuda Championship)
  • Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage) – Matt Kuchar // Webb Simpson // Branden Grace // Luke Donald
  • Sea Island GC – Seaside Course (RSM Classic) – Kevin Kisner // Billy Horschel // Webb Simpson // Russell Henley // Tom Hoge
  • Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship) – Kevin Na // Webb Simpson // Si Woo Kim // Kevin Kisner // Billy Horschel
  • Stadium Course (The American Express) – Andrew Putnam // Kevin Chappell // Tom Hoge // Brian Harman // Charles Howell III
  • TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open) – Jimmy Walker // Chris Kirk // Ryan Palmer // Zach Johnson

• Top Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Marc Leishman, Sungjae Im, Jim Furyk, Corey Conners, Denny McCarthy, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Smith, Ryan Moore, Chris Kirk, Charles Howell III, Patton Kizzire

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• SG: Putting
• SG: Approach
• GIRs Gained
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling

 

DraftKings Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (14 players):

Plays

1) Webb Simpson ($10,500) → pOWN%: 26%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

2^nd // 2^nd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

2^nd // 2^nd

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

30^th // 8^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

1^st // 1^st

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

16^th // 5^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

69^th // 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 17^th // 8^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 4^th // 3^rd // 4^th // 13^th // 13^th // 13^th // 20^th // 38^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 3

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 7

Course Fit Rank: 1^st

Notes: Number 1 ranked player in my course comp rankings, 3^rd in my stat ranks, 2^nd in my course history ranks, and this is one of the select courses (Sedgefield/Harbour Town/Waialae, etc.) where I don’t care about his pOWN% since his T5 and or win equity is so high; could he suck? Sure, golf is volatile as hell, he (and many others) hasn’t played competitively in several weeks or more, and I will never turn someone away from fading just about any player at 25% or more ownership

2) Corey Conners ($9,600) → pOWN%: 26%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

10^th // 7^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

8^th // 5^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

42^nd // 9^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

45^th // 9^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

10^th // 3^rd

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

110^th // 13^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 22^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 12^th // 3^rd // 39^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 5^th

Notes: The keys to success are all things that Corey Conners excels at, such as hitting the narrow fairways (Top 10 in the field), hitting greens (GIRs Gained; ranks 10^th in the field/3^rd in the 8500+ salary range), and a hot putter, WHICH, yes, Conners is a poor putter, but in his 3 appearances at the Sony, Conners has 2 of the 3 best putting performances of his career

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

3) Abraham Ancer ($9,700) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

100^th // 13^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

33^rd // 9^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

19^th // 4^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

69^th // 11^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

100^th // 13^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

79^th // 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // 14^th // 27th // 7^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 38^th // 29^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 80^th  

Notes: Ancer sucked last week, but what I like is 1) he shook off some rust hopefully, and 2) that course doesn’t fit his game much at all while Waialae is much more suited as he won’t be hindered by his lack of distance… poor course history that includes a MC last year and the 2 starts before that a T38/T29, but not only is he a much improved player since then, this should all keep his pOWN% relatively low + a direct pivot off of a chalky Webb/Leishman/Sungjae/Conners while still getting a top tier player

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Marc Leishman → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: Leishman is a great play on paper as he comes in with great form that includes 3 T10 finishes or better in his last 5 starts and very strong course history (ranks 3^rd in the field); 10 straight made cuts here with 3 T5s or better, T9, T20; I’ll wait to see how ownership shakes out into Wednesday evening but despite all the positives, at 20+% ownership (or higher), I’m fine pivoting in tournaments to guys I like as much or better such as Webb/Ancer/Conners

Talor Gooch → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: Hard to argue against any of Gooch’s stats, as he’s 1^st in the field in T2G, 5^th in SG: APP (2^nd in his pricing tier), 12^th in GIRs (4^th in his tier), 14^th in BoB Gained (7^th in his tier), and comes to Waialae off a 15^th place last week and only 1 MC in his last 17 starts (going back to last May)

Russell Henley → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: I expect Henley to be one of the highest owned for the week and it makes sense when you look at any stat model as he’s only the 14^th most expensive golfer on DraftKings, yet ranks 5^th in the field T2G, 15^th SG: APP (6^th in his tier), 6^th in BoB Gained (4^th in his tier); up and down course history that includes 9 straight starts with a win, T11/T13/T17 and 3 MC; ranks 19^th in my course comp rankings

Sungjae Im → pOWN%: 21%

Play/Fade/Context: Sungjae is always a strong play with great stats (2^nd in the field in T2G) and solid form/decent course history but I probably won’t get there myself as I would rather find the $200 for Webb or drop down to others mentioned above… especially if he ends up 20-25% owned in GPPs

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (37 players):

Plays

1) Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,800) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

55^th // 20^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

68^th // 18^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

21^st // 7^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

19^th // 7^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

78^th // 25^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

50^th // 18^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 32^nd // MC // 15^th // 57^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 79^th

Notes: Won’t pop for most in a stat model due to limited data and a lot of European Tour play, but Bez has a tremendous short game, mainly the putter (not to mention, on Bermuda greens especially, he’s averaging almost a full stroke gained on the field per round), he ranks 19^th in the field in SG: APP (7^th in his pricing tier), and is super consistent, as his MC at the Houston Open in November was his first since a European Tour event in October 2020!

2) Denny McCarthy ($7,400) → pOWN%: 24%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

33^rd // 15^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

17^th // 5^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

5^th // 3^rd

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

61^st // 20^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

11^th // 5^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

9^th // 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 10^th // 11^th // 15^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 6^th  

Notes: McCarthy could end up being very chalky, which does make him slightly less appealing in larger field GPPs, but the course is tailored to his game, as he ranks 11^th in the field in GIRs (5^th in the mid-tier pricing range), 17^th in the field in BoB Gained (5^th in his pricing tier), 9^th in Scrambling (4^th in his tier), and 5^th in the field in SG: Putting (3^rd in his tier); no course history, but he ranks 6^th in my course comp rankings and has finished T10/T11/T15 in his last 3 starts while making 8 of his last 10 cuts

3) Alex Smalley ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

15^th // 6^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

25^th // 9^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

52^nd // 14^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

50^th // 16^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

9^th // 4^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

28^th // 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 15^th // 12^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 29^th  

Notes: Recent graduate onto the PGA TOUR that made 4 of 5 cuts in the swing season, including a T12 at the Bermuda Championship (comp course) and although a smaller sample size, ranks 15^th in the field in SG: T2G (6^th in his mid-tier pricing range), 9^th in GIRs (4^th in his pricing tier), and 5^th in the field (3^rd in his tier) in Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling

 

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

3) Brian Stuard ($7,200) → pOWN%: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

95^th // 30^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

73^rd // 22^nd

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

54^th // 16^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

58^th // 19^th

• GIRs Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

93^rd // 28^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

5^th // 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 66^th // 27^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 47^th // 53^rd // 8^th // 4^th // 45^th // MC // 6^th // 5^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 4

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 38^th  

Notes: Stuard’s course history is what has me decently interested and with 7 of 8 made cuts at Waialae that includes 4 finishes of T8 or better, a good sign that it suits his eye; while not a “key” stat this week, I will note that Stuard ranks 3^rd in the field in Fairways Gained (1^st in his pricing tier), 5^th in Scrambling (2^nd in his pricing tier), and what should be very low ownership; I’ll take the risk that while his form is bad, all these guys have had time off and looking at his career, 3 of Stuard’s top 12 performances (in terms of SG: Total on the field) have come at Waialae with 3 more of the top 12 at The AmEx, Valero Texas Open, and RBC Heritage, all strong comp courses this week

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Joel Dahmen → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context: I’m almost always willing to fade players under 8k projecting for high pOWN%, and while I like Dahmen’s current form and stats (21^st in the field T2G/10^th SG: APP/5^th BoB), his ball striking was poor last week, he’s generally a negative putter, and ranks 106^th in my course comp rankings; at sub 10% I may be interested but not so much as “value chalk”

Seamus Power → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context: Solid current form, with a T15 last week and a T4/T11/T12 in 3 of his prior 4 starts to the Sentry Tournament of Champions but as expected chalk I don’t love it given that his course history is weak (2 MC last 2 times out and other 2 finishes T54/T49) and I prefer to target him in heavy birdie fests and/or weaker field events (last week/RSM/Barbasol where he won/John Deere/Rocket Mortgage)

Maverick McNealy → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context: I normally like playing Mav and if the pOWN% stays around 15% or lower I have some decent interest; I’m splitting hairs, but I do slightly prefer him on smaller green courses (this course is above average at around 7000 sq. ft.) but he’s 16^th in the field T2G (7^th in the mid-tier price range), 2^nd in GIRs (2^nd in his pricing tier), and 15^th in BoB Gained (4^th in his tier); made 12 of his last 13 cuts with his main drawback his putter and lack of course history (first start here)

Brendan Steele → pOWN%: 12%

Play/Fade/Context: Elite course history in his 2 starts, as he almost won last year, ultimately finishing 4^th and finished T2 in 2020; if he builds up steam, I have no issue pivoting as his ball striking is strong, but he possesses a weaker than average short game and there are a lot of options that I like as much or more in the 7k price range

OTHERS I LIKE: Si Woo Kim // Aaron Rai // Keith Mitchell // Adam Long

Lower Tier Options – Under 7K (82 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Max McGreevy ($6,900) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: Young kid fresh off the Korn Ferry who has finished T19/T16 in his most recent two starts, ranks 3^rd in the field in SG: APP (1^st in the sub 7k range), 23^rd in the field in BoB Gained (8^th in the sub 7k range)

2) Hudson Swafford ($6,800) → pOWN%: 7%

Quick Hits: Another course history-driven play as Swafford has made 7 of 8 cuts here with 3 T10s or better, a T13, and a T25; Swafford ranks 23^rd in the field (10^th in his pricing tier) in SG: APP and 28^th in the field (9^th in his tier) in BoB Gained, and has shown positive putting splits on Bermuda (limited sample)

3) Nick Hardy ($6,600) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Still very early in his PGA career (just got status in the swing season), but he is a tremendous ball-striker than can be hindered by poor putting more often than not… finished T14 last year in his first start at Waialae and has the highest projected cut probability (that is his % chance to make the cut) in my model this week

4) Stephan Jaeger ($6,400) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Another recent graduate of the Korn Ferry Tour, so limited stats/form to go off, but in the swing season he finished T20 at the Bermuda Championship (comp course), he has a strong short game (ranks 21^st in Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling in the full field, 8^th in his pricing tier) as well as 5^th in the field in SG: OTT (not a “key” stat this week, but always important)

 

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson

2) Marc Leishman

3) Corey Conners

4) Russell Henley

5) Seamus Power

6) Charles Howell III

7) Joel Dahmen

8) Denny McCarthy

9) Alex Smalley

10) Hudson Swafford

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% Course Comp Rank, and 10% Course History

1. Cameron Smith
2. Marc Leishman
3. Sungjae Im
4. Webb Simpson
5. Talor Gooch
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Russell Henley
8. Tom Hoge
9. Seamus Power
10. Joel Dahmen
11. Denny McCarthy
12. Matt Jones
13. Kevin Na
14. Jason Kokrak
15. Corey Conners
16. Keith Mitchell
17. Brendan Steele
18. Charles Howell III
19. Maverick McNealy
20. Aaron Rai