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Course: St. George’s Golf & Country Club, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7000 yards
• Average Cut: N/A (first time hosting since 2010)
• Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Unique Par 70 set up with 5 Par 3s (4/5 are 200+) and 3 Par 5s
• Very small greens (4000 sq. ft. on avg. compared to TOUR avg. 6000-6500 sq. ft.)
• Corollary Courses:
  • Hamilton Golf & CC (former RBC Canadian course)
  • PGA National (Honda Classic)
  • Detroit GC (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
  • Pebble Beach GL (AT&T Pro-Am)
  • Waialae CC (Sony Open)
  • Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Rory McIlroy, Chris Kirk, Shane Lowry, Nick Taylor, Harold Varner III

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Fairways Gained)
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling
• BoB Gained
• SG: Par 3s
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (16 players):

Plays

1) Scottie Scheffler ($11,100) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 2^nd
• SG: Approach → 1^st
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 15^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 4^th
• BoB Gained → 8^th
• SG: Par 3s → 2^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 71^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 2^nd // MC // 15^th // 18^th // 1^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 45^th  

Notes: Has gained strokes T2G in 8 of his 9 starts in 2022, has 4 wins this calendar year, and only 1 MC since October of 2021… this week will probably boil down to exposures to the top 3 guys, who are head and shoulders above the rest (Scottie/Rory/JT), and I’m hoping I can get Scottie at lower ownership due to the 11K price tag, despite being the #1 player in the world…

2) Corey Conners ($9,600) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 6^th
• SG: Approach → 12^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 3^rd
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 2^nd
• BoB Gained → 19^th
• SG: Par 3s → 13^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 99^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 13^th // MC // 21^st // 12^th // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 5^th

Notes: Conners continues to be near elite OTT, having gained strokes in that category in every single event since February 2021 and while he should definitely get a lot of ownership, he’s a perfect course fit with the bonus of playing in his homeland; with the exception of putting (obviously), Conners ranks Top 20 in every stat category I’m looking at along with ranking 5^th in my course comp model

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Sebastian Munoz ($9,200) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 16^th
• SG: Approach → 19^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 31^st
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 12^th
• BoB Gained → 39^th
• SG: Par 3s → 106^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 25^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 48^th // 55^th // 3^rd // 29^th // 26^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 42^nd

Notes: I had Reed in this spot before he WD Tuesday afternoon (probably for the better) but Munoz sets up as a great pivot with a 9K+ price tag and coming in making his last 9 cuts in a row with 4 T25s or better in that span; after being plagued by a terrible putter for the first few months of the season, Munoz has now gained strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 events and as long as he can be average on the Par 3s (weak part of his game) and avoid the big numbers, he has T10 or better upside

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Rory McIlroy → pOWN%: 21%

Play/Fade/Context:

Justin Thomas → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context:

Matt Fitzpatrick → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context:

Chris Kirk → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context:

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (34 players):

Plays

1) J.J. Spaun ($7,700) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 12^th
• SG: Approach → 11^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 20^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 12^th
• BoB Gained → 79^th
• SG: Par 3s → 32^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 133^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – WD // MC // 38^th // MC // 23^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 71^st  

Notes: Only 5 starts removed from his first PGA victory, Spaun seems to be overlooked thus far after a MC at the PGA Championship a few weeks ago; the stats remain strong, having now gained strokes T2G in 6 of his last 7, gaining on APP in 6 of his last 7, and OTT in 8 of his last 9; the main worry is he’s a horrible putter, especially on bent; however, at only 7700 I’ll take the risk and hope the extra Par 3 is to his benefit (32^nd in the field in SG: Par 3s)

2) Alex Smalley ($7,500) → pOWN%: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 23^rd
• SG: Approach → 24^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 35^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 22^nd
• BoB Gained → 73^rd
• SG: Par 3s → 80^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 110^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 27^th // MC // 6^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 26^th  

Notes: It’s been a rough stretch for the recent Korn Ferry grad as his ARG game is awful and the putter is not much better; however, he’s a great iron player, having gained on APP in 6 of his last 7 starts and has only lost strokes OTT in 2 of his 15 starts in 2022; of note, I have Smalley with the 20^th best T5 or better odds despite being the 32^nd most expensive player on DK this week

3) Tyler Duncan ($7,500) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 24^th
• SG: Approach → 18^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 62^nd
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 41^st
• BoB Gained → 86^th
• SG: Par 3s → 18^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 115^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 15^th // 59^th // MC // MC // 14^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 53^rd

Notes: Top 25 in the field T2G, APP, and Par 3s makes Duncan one of my favorite value plays in a field lacking them… Duncan’s bread & butter is his APP game, as he’s gained strokes in 8 of his last 9 events; his main struggle is the putter while the ARG game isn’t anything special either, but I like playing a guy like Duncan on a course with small greens and hope he can separate himself in the APP category and not have to rely as much on Scrambling

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Stephan Jaeger ($7,300) → pOWN%: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 39^th
• SG: Approach → 39^th
• SG: OTT (Fairway emphasis) → 80^th
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling → 59^th
• BoB Gained → 18^th
• SG: Par 3s → 5^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 77^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 38^th // 6^th // 15^th // 29^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 86^th

Notes: Standout on the Korn Ferry with 6 wins to his name (on the KFT, not PGA) and comes in with some decent form, making 3 of his last 4 cuts with a T38/T6/T15 in that span; excels on Par 3s/Par 5s and should be considerably less owned than David Lipsky or Matthias Schwab at the same price

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

C.T. Pan → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context:

David Lipsky → pOWN%: 10%

Play/Fade/Context:

OTHERS I LIKE: Adam Long // Patrick Rodgers // Adam Svensson // J.T. Poston // Austin Smotherman

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (67 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Brice Garnett ($6,700) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: This sub 7K range is REAL bad, but Garnett is a high risk/reward that should be 4% or less owned who has, not often, but shown some upside on certain courses; 33^rd in the field T2G, 20^th in Bogey Avoidance, and Top 50 in Fairways Gained, Scrambling, and SG: OTT; came T15 in his most recent start and while it’s a GPP punt only, it is worth noting that his T5/T20 odds are significantly higher than those around him (Garnett is around Top 40 in T5/T20 odds compared to players ranked 60^th or worse at the same or similar price)

2) Scott Gutschewski ($6,500) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Has missed his last 3 cuts but the ball striking numbers are better than the finishes show… he’s gained strokes OTT in his last 3 events, gained on APP in 3 of his last 4, and gained T2G in 7 of his last 9 starts; we have a limited sample size as despite being 45 years old and around since the early 2000s, he just got his TOUR card back after about a decade… not the strongest putter, but he’s a great scorer on Par 5s and can unlock 2/3 studs in a lineup in this very top-heavy field

Cash Game Options

1) Rory McIlroy

2) Shane Lowry

3) Corey Conners

4) Tony Finau

5) Brendon Todd

6) C.T. Pan

7) Adam Long

8) J.J. Spaun

9) Alex Smalley

10) David Lipsky

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% of my course comp model ranking

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Justin Thomas
3. Shane Lowry
4. Tony Finau
5. Cameron Smith
6. Scottie Scheffler
7. Corey Conners
8. Sam Burns
9. Harold Varner III
10. Matt Fitzpatrick
11. Chris Kirk
12. Sebastian Munoz
13. Brendon Todd
14. Tyrrell Hatton
15. Adam Hadwin
16. C.T. Pan
17. David Lipsky
18. Keith Mitchell
19. J.J. Spaun
20. Austin Smotherman