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Course: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Fast Facts

• TPC Sawgrass Par 72; ≈ 7300 yards
• Average Cut: +1
• Field: 144 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • PGA National (Honda Classic)
  • Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship)
  • TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management
  • Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational)
  • Innisbrook ((Copperhead); Valspar Championship)
• Webb Simpson, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Jason Kokrak, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele, Paul Casey

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP
• SG: Par 5s
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) → pOWN%: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 16^th // 10^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 89^th // 16^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 3^rd

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 7^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // 2^nd // 4^th // 9^th // 4^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // MC // 23^rd // 22^nd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 27^th

Notes: Approach game has tailed off some the last few events but I love to see his consistent SG: OTT where he’s gained strokes in every single event since last year’s PLAYERS; tremendous short game, avoids mistakes, and excels on Par 5s… before the Genesis where he finished T33 his 6 previous events results were 2 wins, 3 more T5s, and a T9 so I think after a few weeks off he can get his irons back as the OTT/T2G/Putting has been great… feels underpriced to me and one of my favorite plays in the field

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600) → pOWN%: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 7^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 4^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th / /6^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 8^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 44^th // 13^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 71^st // 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 20^th // 39^th // 8^th // 30^th // 1^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – MC // 8^th // MC // 22^nd // 7^th // 17^th // 23^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 19^th

Notes: Getting a little more buzz than I thought but he always comes in under-owned; only player with multiple wins this season, 3 wins over the last year and has 5 finishes of T23 or better in 7 starts at Sawgrass, which includes a T7 and T8; his putting over his last several events hasn’t been terrible, he’s made the cut in 12 straight starts on TOUR, and we know he carries true win equity/T5 upside at what I expect will be low ownership than guys like Xander/Hovland in his price range

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Cameron Smith ($9,400) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 11^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 33^rd // 11^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 4^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 4^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 37^th // 11^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 23^rd // 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // 4^th // MC // 1^st // 4^th       

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 17^th // 56^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 88^th

Notes: The only concern with Cam Smith is the driver as he has a propensity to hit it miles off line which isn’t great on a course with water hazards on 17 of 18 holes; however, what he excels at is everything for success here: ranks 19^th T2G, 6^th in Par 5s, 4^th in BoB, and 23^rd in SG: Putting on Bermuda; Smith contends in strong fields and despite the shaky OTT game, he’s gained on APP in 5 of his last 6 starts and has 2 T4s and a win over his last 5 worldwide starts

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Collin Morikawa → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: I love how Morikawa sets up this week, as I think many will too, so while it will be tough for me to be overweight (probably have to play 40-45% to double the field), I will eat the chalk here; elite players win this tournament and Morikawa is extremely similar to the guy below (JT): no weaknesses in the ball striking, he can win anytime and anywhere, but it depends if he has a spike putting week or if he’s missing the short ones… my favorite play in the 10k+ range

Justin Thomas → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context: Like JT for the same reasons as Morikawa and clearly he can contend as the winner last year; JT’s week will come down as always to the putter and how bad he is with it as well as his OTT game; similar to Cam Smith he can miss a lot of fairways and put up some bigger numbers but if he keeps it in play he can crush these Par 5s (again) and be in contention again.. I will most likely play JT in at least 1, probably 2, of my 5 main teams but still slightly prefer Morikawa

Daniel Berger → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: Could be the highest owned player of the week but he’s underpriced at 8800… despite the collapse at Honda 1) that course is tough and 2) he’s still playing great and plays well in Florida/on Bermuda; made his last 5 cuts at Sawgrass with 2 T9s, has 3 T7 finishes or better in his last 5 tournaments and someone I think is a cash game lock

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (45 players):

Plays

1) Joaquin Niemann ($8,400) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 9^th // 3^rd

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 7^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 5^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 2^nd

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 34^th // 18^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 99^th // 33^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 1^st // 8^th // 6^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 29^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 41^st

Notes: Brutal MC at the Honda but he was coming off a win and is still in great form with a win/T8/T6 in 3 of his last 5 starts and ranks top 15 or better in the field in SG: T2G/SG: Par 5s/BoB; he’s improved his around the green game, gaining strokes ARG in his last 6 measured events, gained T2G and OTT in 4 straight events, and can get HOT like he did at Genesis

2) Sungjae Im ($8,300) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 44^th // 22^nd

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 86^th // 33^rd

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 61^st // 25^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 64^th // 29^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 20^th // MC // 33^rd // 6^th // 11^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 17^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 3^rd

Notes: Stats don’t look as great as I, or probably most, are used to but he’s still on his best putting surface in Bermuda, last week was the first time in 11 events he lost strokes OTT, and I’m favoring some longer term form compared to his last few events; wouldn’t say he’s in poor form with a T20 last week, finished T17 at Sawgrass last year, and has a terrific short game (1^st in Bogey Avoidance)

3) Talor Gooch ($7,200) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 6^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 31^st // 13^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 56^th // 23^rd

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 35^th // 16^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 25^th // 12^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 107^th // 36^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 7^th // MC // 26^th // 20^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 5^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 45^th

Notes: Cost me quite a bit of $ last week with the Sunday front nine collapse but for his talent/current year he’s probably the most mispriced player on the slate at only 7200; had a horrendous time at the Genesis, but he’s now gained strokes on APP in 11 of his last 12 measured events, gained T2G in 6 of his last 8 measured events, and since the start of the 2022 season has 5 T11 or better finishes, a win, and 2 T20s in 13 total starts

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Gary Woodland ($7,400) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 42^nd // 20^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 16^th // 6^th

• SG: Par 5s – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 13^th

• Birdies-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 41^st // 20^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 3^rd

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 5^th // 5^th // MC // 39^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – MC // 30^th // MC // MC // 28^th // MC // 11^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 28^th

Notes: Gary! Coming off now back to back T5 finishes he seems to have fixed his issues from when he missed 4 out of 5 cuts coming into the Honda; I love targeting Woodland on harder courses/stronger fields and courses that he can use less than driver OTT; 16^th in the field in SG: APP, 27^th on Par 5s, and 4^th in Bogey Avoidance… despite being a poor putter, Woodland is strong around the greens, 13^th in the Scrambling, and has improved his putting thus far this season

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Matt Fitzpatrick → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: Yes, he’s probably underpriced at only 7700 and is a good Par 5 scorer, has a great short game, and no glaring weaknesses in his game; however, I am not playing a 20+% Fitz at a tournament that historically crushes chalk and a lot of options around him that have similar or equal upside at ½ the pOWN%

Adam Scott → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: I have no strong opinions either way on Scott as he’s playing well right now with 3 T10s in his last 5 worldwide starts and great course history with 9 straight made cuts at Sawgrass with 6 T19 finishes or better (also won in 2004); his ARG and APP game has been a little more inconsistent than usual but it’s encouraging to see that his putting has been very good (or maybe that’s not a good sign since historically he sucks at putting) and he’s a strong Par 5 scorer, ranking 17^th in the field; I will play him in GPPs but probably will be equal or underweight to the field

OTHERS I LIKE: Abraham Ancer // Russell Henley // Corey Conners // Si Woo Kim // Cameron Young // Lanto Griffin // Alex Noren

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (80 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Brian Harman ($6,900) → pOWN%: 6%

Quick Hits: Maybe I’m chasing his course history here, but Harman has been showing some signs of life recently, gaining strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4, gaining T2G in 4 straight events, and just needs a spark with the putter (normally strong) and he could have T20 or better upside at only 6900; Harman has finished T3/T8 in his last 2 starts at Sawgrass, hit’s a lot of fairways, and has a great short game

2) Jhonattan Vegas ($6,800) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Ball striking has been solid as he’s 34^th in the field T2G, 30^th SG: APP, 31^st SG: OTT, 34^th SG: Par 5s, and 24^th in Bogey Avoidance; mixed course history but he has made 6 cuts in his 8 starts at Sawgrass and has gained strokes T2G and on APP in his last 3 events

3) Sebastian Munoz ($6,700) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: A weekly staple… only 6700 and has 4 straight T40 or better finishes along with ranks of 10^th in SG: T2G, 22^nd SG: APP, 18^th SG: OTT, 18^th BoB, and while he definitely could pump 14 balls into the water on 17, the price is too cheap for his current form in my opinion

4) K.H. Lee ($6,300) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Not to say that KH Lee has been lighting up the top of the leaderboards but he’s now made 10 straight cuts on TOUR with 2 T20s and a T26 in that time period… at only 6300 I would take that all day… his name is K.H. “TPC” Lee for a reason as he seems to excel at the TPC tracks on TOUR and while the APP game has been bad the last few tournaments, he’s made up for it with solid and consistent OTT play, good ARG, and worth a punt at the near-min and recent cut maker

5) J.T. Poston ($6,100) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Near the stone min punt and while he is very high risk, he has gained OTT in 6 straight events, his best putting surface is Bermuda, and he’s a solid course fit as a former winner of the Wyndham, 2 T10 finishes at the RBC Heritage, and has finished T22 in both of his starts at Sawgrass the last 2 years… should be 1-2% owned and unlocks anybody and everybody for your other 5 guys

 

Cash Game Options

1) Collin Morikawa

2) Justin Thomas

3) Patrick Cantlay

4) Daniel Berger

5) Sungjae Im

6) Adam Scott

7) Paul Casey

8) Corey Conners

9) Talor Gooch

10) Alex Noren

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course Comp Rank, and 5% Course History

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Justin Thomas
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Billy Horschel
5. Patrick Cantlay
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Matt Fitzpatrick
8. Jon Rahm
9. Daniel Berger
10. Adam Scott
11. Xander Schauffele
12. Chris Kirk
13. Joaquin Niemann
14. Collin Morikawa
15. Gary Woodland
16. Tyrrell Hatton
17. Hideki Matsuyama
18. Cameron Young
19. Shane Lowry
20. Will Zalatoris