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Course: Southern Hills CC, Tulsa, OK

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7300-7500 yards
• Average Cut: +2/+3 (PGA Championship avg. cut)
• Field: 156 players with Top 70 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Bellreive CC (2018 PGA Championship)
  • Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge)
  • Firestone CC (formerly held WGC – Bridgestone)
  • GC of Houston (formerly held Houston Open)
  • Liberty National (in FedEx Cup rotation)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Kevin Na, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Sebastian Munoz

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (175+ yards emphasis)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (18 players):

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($10,000) → pOWN%: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 14^th
• SG: Approach → 48^th
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 10^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 6^th
• Scrambling → 41^st
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 5^th // 2^nd // MC // 33^rd // 13^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – 49^th // 33^rd // 8^th // 50^th // 22^nd // MC // 17^th // 1^st // 8^th // 1^st

Wins: 2

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 4

Top 20s: 5

Course Fit Rank: 1^st

Notes: Rory definitely won’t be sneaky as I assume he’ll be in the top 3/5 highest owned in the field but the form is great, the major history (despite no wins since 2014) is strong, and the course sets up perfectly for him (as seen by his #1 rating in my course comp model); last 2 starts T2/T5, has gained strokes OTT in 12 of his last 14 measured starts and over his last 24 majors he’s finished T25 or better nearly 63% of the time and T10 or better nearly 50% of the time (46%)

2) Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 6^th
• SG: Approach → 1^st
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 35^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 20^th
• Scrambling → 47^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 143^rd (lol)

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // 14^th // WD // 20^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – 23^rd // 22^nd // 16^th // 35^th // 5^th // 4^th // 37^th // 35^th // 19^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 22^nd

Notes: I wish he hadn’t gone nuclear this past Sunday as it will certainly shoot up his pOWN% but the ball striking is elite, he gained 9.4 strokes on APP at the Byron Nelson, and as I said on the pod, it’s often incorrectly stated that he has a “poor short game” when in reality he’s a superb ARG player and a historically horrendous putter… excluding one WD, Hideki has made his last 15 cuts with 2 wins, 3 T10s, and 3 T20s in that span; over his last 24 major events he’s finished T25 or better in 78% of them

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($9,500) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 47^th
• SG: Approach → 41^st
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 36^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 92^nd
• Scrambling → 79^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 42^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 59^th // MC // 12^th // 4^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – MC // 2^nd // 2^nd // 27^th // 13^th // MC // 7^th // 8^th // 48^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 4

Top 20s: 5

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: The putter has continued to be his Achilles heel and while I wish the form/stats were bad, we’re getting DJ at sub 10% at what seems like it would be a perfect fit to a course that rewards distance off the tee and strong OTT play… there’s decent risk here with how he’s looked sluggish, but DJ is someone who can win anywhere, at any time, and his major history is one of the best with a 70% T25 or better rate and a 48% T10 or better rate

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Shane Lowry → pOWN%: 21%

Play/Fade/Context: PLAY in cash/SE but potential fade in large field GPPs

Jordan Spieth → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context: PLAY

Patrick Cantlay → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: PLAY

Joaquin Niemann → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: PLAY in cash/SE but potential fade in large field GPPs

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (42 players):

Plays

1) Keegan Bradley ($7,500) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 18^th
• SG: Approach → 51^st
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 22^nd
• Bogey Avoidance → 27^th
• Scrambling → 45^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 41^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 2^nd // 4^th // 8^th // 35^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – 17^th // MC // 29^th // 42^nd // 33^rd // 42^nd // 61^st // MC // 19^th // 3^rd

Wins: 1 (2011)

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 38^th

Notes: Coming in with terrific form with T2/T4/T8 his last 3 starts and it may shock everyone, including me, that the putting has not been horrible as he’s shown some spike weeks recently (gained 9.8 strokes putting at Wells Fargo, finishing T2); 8/9 made cuts with 3 T10s, 2 more T20s or better, and ownership should be kept in check due to a poor major history record (excluding his win in 2011); similar to Hideki, I think Keegan has an underrated ARG game and like most weeks, it will depend on the putter

2) Jason Kokrak ($7,300) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 59^th
• SG: Approach → 33^rd
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 58^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 29^th
• Scrambling → 44^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 9^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 17^th // 35^th // 14^th // 35^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 49^th // MC // 23^rd // 19^th // 33^rd // 49^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 41^st

Notes: Has huge distance, has been putting great over the last several months, and for only 7300, has a strong major record with a T25 or better in 50% of his starts (16 total) and 75% made cuts; Kokrak has made 9 of 10 cuts since the swing season with a win, 3 T20s or better, and no glaring weakness in all major SG categories

3) Alex Noren ($7,000) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 36^th
• SG: Approach → 83^rd
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 55^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 48^th
• Scrambling → 52^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 12^th // MC // 42^nd // 18^th // 12^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 55^th // 22^nd // 54^th // MC // 67^th // 49^th // MC // 66^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 59^th

Notes: Riding a cut streak of 9 straight with an elite short game and has gained strokes on APP in 8 of his last 9 events on TOUR as well T2G in 8 straight events; sometimes I worry about Noren’s “upside” but at only 7000 we don’t need him to win and he has a strong cut% at majors (nearly 70%)

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Sergio Garcia ($7,200) → pOWN%: 5%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 37^th
• SG: Approach → 49^th
• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) → 7^th
• Bogey Avoidance → 12^th
• Scrambling → 34^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 114^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 21^st // MC // 23^rd // 26^th // 26^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – MC // MC // MC // MC // MC // MC // 54^th // 35^th // 61^st // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 32^nd

Notes: His last 10 starts at the PGA Champ are pretty hilarious with 6 straight MC and 7 MC in last 10; however, on a course that I think will reward strong OTT, few have been better this season than Sergio, as he’s gained strokes OTT in every event since last year’s BMW and every event but one since the RBC Heritage in 2021; the APP game hasn’t really been there and the major track record is lacking (only about a 48% made cut rate), but he’ll be very low owned since everyone hates him and he’s still a great ball striker

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Matt Fitzpatrick → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: Fade… course makes sense, his form is good, but there are other guys I like better

Cameron Young → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: Fade

Corey Conners → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: PLAY

OTHERS I LIKE: Corey Conners // Talor Gooch // Gary Woodland // Maverick McNealy

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (96 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Sebastian Munoz ($6,800) → pOWN%: 6%

Quick Hits: 23^rd in the field SG: T2G, 18^th SG: APP, 17^th SG: OTT, 5^th on Par 4s 450+, and 32^nd in Scrambling… I think he’ll end up being higher than 6% owned but his form is tremendous for only 6800 with 7 straight made cuts in which he’s gained T2G in all 7 (and over 35 strokes gained T2G in total), gained OTT in each of his last 6, and gained on APP in 6 of his last 7… the major history isn’t very good, but we’re getting a ton of positives for a cheap price

2) Mito Pereira ($6,700) → pOWN%: 8%

Quick Hits: Playing in his first major but coming in with strong form, making 6 of his last 7 cuts with no finish worse than T30 in any of those 6… per his stats, he’s gained OTT in 6 straight, gained T2G in 7 straight, and has an above average ARG game despite being a poor putter; ranks 10^th in the field T2G, 3^rd SG: APP, 9^th SG: OTT, 34^th Bogey Avoidance, and 26^th in Scrambling

3) J.J. Spaun ($6,400) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Continued his good play last week after a MC at the RBC Heritage and has now gained strokes OTT in 7 straight measured events and gained T2G in 6 of his last 8 events; quietly, Spaun ranks 16^th in the field in Driving Distance and similar to that of a Corey Conners, the ARG lacks but if the ball striking stays strong, he can be a tremendous value at only 6400

4) Ryan Fox ($6,300) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: While not in the same realm as PGA tour events in terms of strength of field, Fox’s last 5 starts on the Euro Tour: 1^st/T15/T8/T9/T2 and in his 10 total major starts he’s made the cut in 60% and finished T25 or better in 30%… has tremendous distance off the tee, has gained strokes on APP in 5 straight events, and has improved his putting with positive SG in 5 of his last 7 events on the Euro Tour

Cash Game Options

1) Justin Thomas

2) Rory McIlroy

3) Jordan Spieth

4) Hideki Matsuyama

5) Patrick Cantlay

6) Shane Lowry

7) Keegan Bradley

8) Alex Noren

9) Mito Pereira

10) Lanto Griffin/Adam Hadwin

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 15% of my course comp model ranking, and 5% Tournament History

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Justin Thomas
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Shane Lowry
5. Jon Rahm
6. Scottie Scheffler
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Xander Schauffele
10. Keegan Bradley
11. Corey Conners
12. Cameron Smith
13. Cameron Young
14. Collin Morikawa
15. Sebastian Munoz
16. Matt Kuchar
17. Daniel Berger
18. Harold Varner III
19. Matt Fitzpatrick
20. Viktor Hovland