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Course: Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7400-7500 yards
• Average Cut: N/A
• Field: 144 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • CC of Jackson (Sanderson Farms)
  • Cocoa Beach GC (Puerto Rico Open)
  • Corales Puntacana (Corales Puntacana Championship)
  • Plantation Course at Kapalua (Tournament of Champions)
  • TPC Craig Ranch (AT&T Byron Nelson)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jon Rahm, Nate Lashley, Emiliano Grillo, Alex Smalley, Aaron Baddeley, JT Poston, Pat Perez, Chad Ramey, Brice Garnett, Adam Schenk

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (175+ yards emphasis)
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• SG: Putting
• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (20 players):

Plays

1) Tony Finau ($10,400) → pOWN%: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 10^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 2^nd  

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 65^th // 12^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 8^th  

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 101^st // 15^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 5^th  

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 35^th // 29^th // 35^th // MC // 33^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 42^nd

Notes: Finau’s recent finishes aren’t as indicative, at least in my opinion, for his ball striking/T2G game as his biggest weakness by far has been ARG/Scrambling which should be relatively “unimportant” here this week; has gained strokes on APP in 11 of his last 12 measured events, he has huge distance, and as a bonus he has won at one of the course comps (Puerto Rico)

2) Matt Jones ($9,000) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 7^th   

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 50^th // 14^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 6^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 27^th // 9^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 116^th // 16^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 75^th // 15^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 2^nd // MC // 52^nd // MC // 15^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 23^rd

Notes: Jones has sneaky distance (top 25 in the field in DD) and this course could really play to his advantage of there is an edge to having distance off the tee along with possible wind swirls in Mexico; Jones is streaky and is capable of imploding sure, but he’s coming off a T2 at the Valero, he finished T15 at Kapalua earlier this year (comp course), and his biggest weakness, the putter, should hurt him less than normal on Paspalum greens that narrows the gap between strong/weak putters

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Sebastian Munoz ($9,800) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 5^th // 4^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 7^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 4^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 4^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 73^rd // 10^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 25^th // 10^th   

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 26^th // 33^rd // 26^th // 21^st // 23^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 34^th

Notes: Ok so Munoz isn’t going “low owned” by any means but he’s the only other player I have interest in this range aside from a very popular Woodland/Rahm… since the start of the 2021/2022 season, Munoz has gained strokes T2G in 7 of 8, made 6 of 8 cuts, and while his recent finishes wouldn’t do it for us in terms of finishing position (at his 9800 price tag), his streakiness makes him a strong GPP option; strong course fit as a winner at Sanderson Farms (comp course), a T10 at Byron Nelson (comp course), and similar to Jones, his recent putting woes hopefully won’t “kill” him here

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Jon Rahm → pOWN%: 30+%

Play/Fade/Context: I’m not gonna waste time in this field on Rahm… but play him as he’s $11,300 and probably 1-2k too cheap. #Analysis

Gary Woodland → pOWN%: 25%

Play/Fade/Context: Woodland is an easier fade than Rahm since they’re by no means the same caliber but he’s still underpriced in a horrendous field… auto cash play and fine in SE, but don’t stack him with Rahm/other chalk options as that will be a very popular build

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (38 players):

Plays

1) J.T. Poston ($7,500) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 23^rd // 9^th  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 90^th // 33^rd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 58^th // 22^nd

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 4^th  

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 4^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 3^rd // 41^st // MC // MC   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 6^th

Notes: A little concerning that Poston ranks 2^nd in my overall model this week but he’s coming off a nice T3 finish at the RBC Heritage and has gained strokes OTT in 9 of his last 10 measured events; if we look at Poston’s best finishes in terms of SG: Total the last few years, he does his best in weak fields/easier courses with a T2 and T5 at the Barbasol (opposite field event), a T3 and T11 at Sanderson Farms, a T4 at the Shriners, a T19 at Corales, and a T10 at the Puerto Rico Open… those are over a few years so while I will always favor recent form over long-term, the course fit seems tremendous for only 7500

2) Nate Lashley ($7,500) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 26^th // 12^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 6^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 3^rd  

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 83^rd // 24^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 108^th // 33^rd

• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 18^th // 15^th // 27^th // 7^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 2^nd

Notes: Lashley torched me a few weeks ago when he MC by several hundred strokes but that was his worst performance in terms of T2G/SG: Total of the entire year and one of his worst three performances over his last 2 seasons… go figure; before the RBC Heritage Lashley had finishes of T18/T15/T27/T7 in which the T15 was at Corales (comp) and T7 at Puerto Rico (comp); doesn’t have huge distance but can rack up birdies and is good ARG/out of the sand (ranks 23^rd in the field in Sand Saves Gained)

3) Chase Seiffert ($7,100) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 13^th // 4^th  

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 11^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 36^th // 15^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 52^nd // 12^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 90^th // 27^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 32^nd // 13^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 18^th // 22^nd // 41^st // 25^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 15^th

Notes: I always get suckered in by Sieffert’s stats but once again they look strong this week for a player only priced at 7100; 13^th T2G, 30^th SG: APP, 31^st Sand Saves, 36^th BoB, and 33^rd in Bogey Avoidance; his last 2 starts on TOUR were the Corales and Puntacana, where he finished T22/T41, respectively, and with how streaky of a player he is, a potential birdie fest makes me love him as a low”ish” GPP play

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Brandon Wu ($7,300) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 113^th // 36^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 55^th // 22^nd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 11^th // 4^th

• SG: OTT (DD emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 100^th // 28^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 10^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Sand Saves – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 21^st // 28^th // 33^rd // 3^rd // MC  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: N/A

Top 5s: N/A

Top 10s: N/A

Top 20s: N/A

Course Fit Rank: 18^th

Notes: Tough stretch for Wu over the last 2 seasons, but after missing 11 (!!) out of 12 cuts, he proceeded to finish T3 at Puerto Rico and has made his last 3 cuts on TOUR, including a T28 at Corales in March; since the start of 2021 Wu has 2 finishes in the top 10: a T7 at Puerto Rico in 2021 and a T3 at Puerto Rico in 2022… small sample size? Certainly, but Wu will be unowned and is a solid Sand/ARG player and can rack up birdies (11^th in the field in BoB)

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

N/A → pOWN%:

Play/Fade/Context:

N/A → pOWN%:

Play/Fade/Context:

OTHERS I LIKE: Charles Howell III // C.T. Pan /// Austin Smotherman // Adam Svensson // Nick Taylor

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (84 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Brice Garnett ($6,700) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Garnett is basically only good on coastal tracks with weak fields… so fire him up! Came T7 at Puerto Rico in March and his sole win on TOUR was in 2018 at…………… the Corales; good ARG player, ranks 25^th in the field in Sand Saves and can get a hot putter if he’s not spraying it off the tee

2) Andrew Novak ($6,700) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Recent Korn Ferry grad in his first year on TOUR; has shown to be up and down, as most rookies are, but in his last 4 starts has 2 MC and a T11 at Corales and T22 at Puerto Rico; has an above average short game, has above average distance, and a weak field should suit him well with the easier greens and easy course layout

3) Roger Sloan ($6,600) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Sloan is quietly a strong T2G player and great APP player as despite the finishes he’s gained strokes on APP in 5 straight events, gained T2G in 4 of his last 6, and if he ever made a putt he could be a serious value play at his usual sub 7K price tag; ranks Top 40 in the field in T2G/SG: APP/Sand Saves and can hopefully benefit from the slower/less breaking greens to capitalize on the ball-striking

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Gary Woodland

3) Aaron Wise

4) Matt Jones

5) Charles Howell III

6) Pat Perez

7) Nate Lashley

8) Brandon Wu

9) Nick Taylor

10) Ryan Armour

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 20% of my course comp model ranking, and 0% Course History (first time venue)

1. Jon Rahm
2. JT Poston
3. Matt Jones
4. Anirban Lahiri
5. Nate Lashley
6. Gary Woodland
7. Sebastian Munoz
8. Kevin Streelman
9. Charles Howell III
10. Aaron Wise
11. Chris Kirk
12. Chad Ramey
13. Brandon Wu
14. T. Pan
15. Vaughn Taylor
16. Chase Seiffert
17. Cameron Tringale
18. Sahith Theegala
19. Scott Stallings
20. Kurt Kitayama