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Course(s): PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Fast Facts

• PGA National Par 70; ≈ 7100 yards
• Average Cut: +3
• Field: 144 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational)
  • Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge)
  • East Lake (TOUR Championship)
  • Innisbrook (Copperhead; Valspar)
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship)
  • Waialae CC (Sony Open
• Top Course Fit Targets: Tommy Fleetwood, Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Charles Howell III, Lucas Glover, Matt Jones, Aaron Wise, Charl Schwartzel, Henrik Stenson, Billy Horschel, Christaan Bezuidenhout

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards approaches)
• Bogey Avoidance
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)
• Scrambling
• Driving Distance Gained

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Shane Lowry ($9,100) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 14^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 3^rd

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 7^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 12^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 112^th // 15^th

• Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 9^th

• Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 40^th // 8^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 14^th // 24^th // 12^th // 9^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 36^th // 21^st // 49^th // 53^rd    

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 70^th

Notes: Similar to Rory and other Euro players from last week, with the lack of PGA TOUR official stats since they haven’t played in the US since 2021, very few will pop in a “stat model;” however, Lowry has not only made all 4 cuts at PGA National but over on the Euro Tour his last 3 finishes are T12/T24/T14 and I love targeting him on harder/possibly windy courses; normally I’d worry about chalk here, but I think being right next to Horschel (projecting to be very chalk)/Mitchell (could be Top 3 highest owned), he should be moderate owned and has serious win equity/T5 upside

2) Mito Pereira ($8,900) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 25^th // 9^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 40^th // 8^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 6^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 90^th // 17^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st // 7^th

• Scrambling– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 4^th

• Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 39^th // 7^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 15^th // MC // MC // 25^th // 29^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 123^rd  

Notes: Pereira’s DK Price continues to fly around it seems as the field strength changes but as a rookie (started full time on TOUR last July), he’s shown to be a premier ball-striker as a Top 30 T2G player in the field and although a limited sample, a solid Bermuda putter; while he cooled off a bit from several weeks ago, Mito has finished T30 or better in 4 of his last 6 starts, finished T15 last week, and despite a below-average short game most weeks, ranks 14^th in Bogey Avoidance and 10^th in Scrambling

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Patrick Reed ($8,800) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 123^rd // 17^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 126^th // 17^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 13^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 74^th // 16^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 2^nd

• Scrambling– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 4^th

• Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 131^st // 17^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 38^th // 46^th // 55^th // 15^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC // MC // 7^th // 24^th // 58^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 35^th  

Notes: This play is probably stupid/a waste of a roster spot 70% of the time if we simulated this tournament 100 times (that’s a guess, not official); however, if Reed had showed ANY sort of form the last few weeks, more people would be talking about this being a great course fit… we can’t ignore how bad he’s playing and the stats listed above confirm that as he’s dead last or near dead last in his pricing tier/in the whole field; what does Reed do well? Save pars, scramble, and contend on tougher courses, i.e. the exact formula for success at Honda… I wouldn’t use him in cash/single entry/he’s VERY risky in 3 max, but if playing multiple lineups (10+) I think he’s worth some exposure as he should be around 5% owned and his long-term skillset could come out if he gets his head out of his ass

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Sungjae Im → pOWN%: 23%

Play/Fade/Context: Probably the only guy (except maybe Niemann) that I’ll play in the 10k+ range and while I want to avoid chalk at the Honda more often than not, Im does seem like the class of the field; has finished T6/T11/T33 in his last 3 starts, has made all 3 cuts at the Honda with a win in 2020, and most likely the starting player for my cash team (and many others); worth the pOWN% I think but as always, anyone above 20% pOWN% is worth a fade in GPPs (especially at this course)

Keith Mitchell → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: A chalk Keith Mitchell at 9100 definitely sounds like a trap… he ranks #1 in my model (yikes) and is a known elite Bermuda putter; however, yes he won here in 2019, but his other 3 finishes are 2 MC and a T53… he has a huge edge on the field given his driving distance (9^th in the field), he ranks 2^nd T2G, 3^rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 9^th in Scrambling, but it’s tough to love him as this pOWN% given his propensity to blow up and how chalk has fared at PGA National in the past

Billy Horschel → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: Horschel is playing great and rates out well in a lot of key categories: 3^rd in BoB, 9^th in Bogey Avoidance, 4^th in SG: Putting on Bermuda; however ,he also ranks 114^th in SG: APP, 82^nd in Driving Distance, and his last T10 or better at the Honda was in 2017; I get why Billy rates out well for most and he’s normally a safe bet on Bermuda grass courses, but there is no way I play him at this pOWN% especially given the price

Louis Oosthuizen → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: I’ll continue to fade Louis until he has a few more starts; yes, he had a career year last year, he fits this course, and has a great short game; however, he’s also the 2^nd most expensive player and has 1 start this year on TOUR; further, people love playing the Euros at this course, but Louis has played here 5 times with 2 MC, a WD, and a T24/T21 which isn’t incredibly enticing given that he’s nearly 11k on DraftKings

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (44 players):

Plays

1) Gary Woodland ($8,200) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 54^th // 26^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 61^st // 22^nd

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 38^th // 14^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 95^th // 35^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 84^th // 24^th

• Scrambling– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 33^rd // 10^th

• Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 1^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 39^th // MC // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 8^th // 36^th // 49^th // 2^nd // 61^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 15^th

Notes: Obviously the form isn’t great but Gary has made 5/5 cuts at Honda and despite being a below-average putter has a solid around the green game, ranking Top 40 in the field in both Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling; Gary’s distance has, and should continue, to help him here, ranking 8^th in Driving Distance gained in this field and although I’m not viewing it as a “key” stat this week, Gary ranks Top 20 in the field on P4s 450-500 (it varies by day, but there should be 6-7 Par 4s at 450+ yards this week)

2) Ryan Palmer ($7,900) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 9^th // 3^rd

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 31^st // 12^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 116^th // 41^st

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 35^th // 16^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 97^th // 29^th

• Scrambling– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 92^nd // 33^rd

• Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 18^th // 5^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // 16^th // 12^th // 26^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – 17^th // 4^th // MC // 37^th // 26^th // 25^th // 2^nd // 41^st // 26^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 16^th

Notes: A lot will be made about Palmer as he leads the field (and I think the TOUR) in water balls on the “Bear Trap” (Holes 15-17) and while he is very susceptible to making huge numbers (see a few weeks ago when he shot like 80 on a Friday), he’s playing well per his stats and has made 8/9 cuts at Honda with a T2/T4/T25/T17 in that span; solid rank in my course fit model (16^th), has sneaky distance off the tee, and should be low owned due to the narrative that he only hits balls in the water

3) Hudson Swafford ($7,100) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 11^th // 4^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 3^rd

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 85^th // 33^rd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 2^nd

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 116^th // 38^th

• Scrambling– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 127^th // 41^st

• Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 8^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 60^th // MC // 1^st // 48^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – MC // 21^st // MC // 64^th // MC // 65^th // MC // 61^st

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 71^st

Notes: Looks tremendous in a stat model, ranking 11^th T2G, 6^th SG: APP, 6^th in GIRs, 6^th in BoB, and 12^th in Driving Distance; his short game, as is the case with many guys in the lower price range, is not great, but I like that he’s played the course a lot (mixed results with 4 MC/4 made cuts); Swafford is risky, obviously, but feels too cheap given the weaker field and the fact that he won 3 starts ago

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Adam Svensson ($7,000) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 87^th // 34^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 4^th

• Bogey Avoidance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 139^th // 44^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 12^th // 5^th

• SG: Putting (Bermuda) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 79^th // 21^st

• Scrambling– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 140^th // 44^th

• Driving Distance – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 109^th // 34^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 49^th // 79^th // 49^th // 7^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 59^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 39^th

Notes: Ball striking has been solid for the Canadian, gaining on APP in 3 of his last 4 measured rounds and a T7 at the Sony (great comp course) a few weeks ago; as we can see in the stats above, his around the green game is poor and he has a below-average driving distance, but is one of the better fairway-hitters in not only his pricing tier, but the whole field; with his skeptical ARG play I’m not sure he’ll make my Single Entry pool but I love him as a GPP option in both small and large field tournaments

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Aaron Wise → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: Wise has been all over the place so far this year, not only in his stats but DK pricing as well as he’s now 8400 after being sub 7k last week (yes, I know it’s a different field); Wise’s ball striking is good, ranking 23^rd in SG: APP and 16^th in GIRs, but also ranks 113^th in Scrambling and 63^rd in Bogey Avoidance; I don’t have an issue with Wise, but if he’s going to get talked up, I have no issue pivoting to Jhonny Vegas/Hughes/Woodland at similar or lower pOWN%

Lucas Glover → pOWN%: 12%

Play/Fade/Context: I don’t know why I always play him when he always burns me; however, always an elite ball striker, has 4 MC to go with 2 T4s and 3 T25s at the Honda, and remains a high risk/high reward GPP option each week given his horrendous putting

Russell Knox → pOWN%: 12%

Play/Fade/Context: Always a stat model darling and on the opposite side of Palmer, people will continue to talk about his “best record on the Bear Trap;” however, looking at his course history, he has missed 4 of his last 5 cuts at Honda and his last finished inside the T10 was in 2015; he is a strong course fit and there’s no denying his stats as he’s 7^th in the field in SG: T2G, 1^st in SG: APP, 2^nd in GIRs, and 10^th in Bogey Avoidance but as potential chalk and his god awful putting, I’m fine fading and playing Woodland/Bez/Palmer/McCarthy/KH lee around his price range

OTHERS I LIKE: Jhonattan Vegas // Christiaan Bezuidenhout // K.H. Lee // Chris Kirk // Brendon Todd // Lucas Glover // Charles Howell III

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (79 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Kramer Hickok ($6,800) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: This range is especially tough this week but Hickok came through for us at the Sony, a strong comp course, with a T20, he finished T4 at the Houston Open in November (Par 70 Bermuda greens just like PGA National), and his T2G game has been better than the stats indicate over the short term; he ranks 32^nd in the field in SG: APP, 19^th in SG: OTT, 22^nd in BoB Gained, and has made both cuts at the Honda with a T21/T30

2) Ryan Armour ($6,600) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Has made his last 2 cuts on TOUR and although he hasn’t had a ton of success here with 4 missed cuts in 6 starts, the course sets up for him as someone who hits a lot of fairways and avoids the big numbers; Armour ranks 23^rd in the field in Bogey Avoidance along with 22^nd SG: T2G, 43^rd SG: APP, 16^th SG: OTT, and 7^th on Par 4s 450-500 despite his lack of distance

3) Satoshi Kodaira ($6,600) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Such a volatile player but at sub 7k we’re not chasing consistency but rather the spike weeks for GPPs; Kodaira finished T12 at Sony (comp course), finished 11^th at the Wells Fargo last year (another comp course), and per his stats ranks 12^th in SG: APP, 16^th in BoB, 16^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 33^rd in SG: Putting on Bermuda

 

Cash Game Options

1) Sungjae Im

2) Keith Mitchell

3) Mito Pereira

4) Jhonattan Vegas

5) Ryan Palmer

6) K.H. Lee

7) Chris Kirk

8) Charles Howell III

9) Taylor Pendrith

10) Hudson Swafford

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course Comp Rank, and 5% Course History

1. Keith Mitchell
2. Daniel Berger
3. Sungjae Im
4. Billy Horschel
5. Joaquin Niemann
6. Brooks Koepka
7. Brian Harman
8. Louis Oosthuizen
9. Cameron Young
10. Lucas Glover
11. Alex Noren
12. Shane Lowry
13. Tommy Fleetwood
14. Denny McCarthy
15. Chris Kirk
16. Ian Poulter
17. Hudson Swafford
18. Jhonattan Vegas
19. Ryan Palmer
20. Charles Howell III