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Course(s): Riviera CC, Los Angeles, CA

Fast Facts

• Riviera CC Par 71; ≈ 7300 yards
• Average Cut: +1 to +3
• Field: 120 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational)
  • Bethpage Black (hosted US Open and FedEx Cup Playoff events)
  • Club de Chapultepec (WGC – Mexico)
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship)
  • Torrey Pines – South Course – (Farmers Insurance Open)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, Luke List, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Talor Gooch, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Hideki Matsuyama

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP
• Good Drives Gained
• GIRs Gained
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($9,700) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 16^th // 9^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 78^th // 15^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 81^st // 12^th

• GIRs Gained– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 77^th // 13^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 4^th

• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th/47^th // 3^rd/9^th

•   SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 8^th // 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // 12^th // 18^th // 1^st // 6^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC // 5^th // 4^th // 20^th // 20^th   

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 4

Course Fit Rank: 1^st

Notes: Had an off year last year (for his standards) and didn’t play well at the Genesis, but now comes into Riviera with a 1^st/T3/T6 and no finish worse than 18^th in his last 5 worldwide starts, 2 T5s and 2 T20s in 5 starts at this tournament, and ranks 1^st in my course comp model; this price seems too cheap given his win equity and I love playing him at a course that rewards strong driving, especially distance, and his best historical putting surface is Poa

2) Cameron Smith ($9,100) → pOWN%: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 15^th // 8^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 24^th // 7^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 78^th // 11^th

• GIRs Gained– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 26^th // 8^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 1^st // 1^st

• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 77^th/55^th // 13^th/12^th

•   SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 4^th // MC // 1^st // 4^th // 15^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 4^th // MC // 49^th // 6^th // 28^th // 63^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 24^th

Notes: Not sure why Cam Smith is 9100 this week given he has a win and 2 T4 finishes in his last 3 starts worldwide, ranks 1^st in the field in BoB Gained, one of the very best putters on TOUR (and his best is Poa), and has a T4 and T6 in 2 of his last 4 starts at Riviera; Smith has above average driving distance, is an elite Par 5 scorer, and I love playing him in stronger fields/on tougher courses

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Sungjae Im ($8,600) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 4^th // 2^nd

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 50^th // 33^rd

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 3^rd // 3^rd

• GIRs Gained– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 6^th // 3^rd

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 43^rd // 21^st

• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 21^st/1^st // 12^th/1^st

•   SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 25^th// 10^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 6^th // 11^th // MC // 8^th // 19^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 25^th  

Notes: Sungjae has been more volatile than we’re used to, but the finishes speak for themselves as he’s made 11 of his last 12 cuts with a win, 5 T10s or better, 4 T20s or better, and has gained strokes T2G in every event but 1 since the start of the new season this past fall; further, Sungjae has been terrific off the tee, gaining strokes on the field in 8 straight events and 12 of his last 13 measured events; doesn’t have great course history, but that hopefully keeps his ownership low

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Jon Rahm → pOWN%: 22%

Play/Fade/Context: Jon Rahm ranks 1^st in the field in SG: T2G, 1^st in SG: BS, 6^th in SG: APP, 6^th in Good Drives Gained, 3^rd in GIRs Gained, 11^th in BoB, 3^rd in Bogey Avoidance, has come T5/T17/T9 in 3 starts at Riviera, and has come T10/T3/T14/T2 in his last 4 starts despite putting terribly! No reason to fade

Collin Morikawa → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: Morikawa can (and probably will) play well anywhere but if he’s going to be chalky I have no issue pivoting to guys I think have a safer floor at his price point and have better course history… I like a bet on Morikawa at 20/1 or longer, but for DFS purposes, Morikawa hasn’t played Riviera incredibly well (T43/T26) and I like the upside of DJ/Rory/JT in similar prices around him

Dustin Johnson → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context: Finally has started putting well again and his course history here is absurd: T8/T10/T9/T16/1^st/T4/T2/T2/MC/T4… a win, 4 T4s or better, and 3 T10s in 10 starts… historically does his best putting on Poa and has a T8/T25/T8/T6 in 4 of his last 5 worldwide starts; I like him a lot and think he’s cash playable, as well tournaments, given his enormous upside and ability to storm any field at any course he’s playing (especially this one)

Xander Schauffele → pOWN%: 20%

Play/Fade/Context: Almost always fade him, but this week I like him in all formats, meaning he’ll MC; was close to getting in the playoff last week, has played Riviera 4 times with finishes of T15/T23/T15/T9 and currently has been amazing ball-striking; strong Poa putter as he’s a California guy and we know how hot he can get if the driver is firing, and putter is clicking

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (36 players):

Plays

1) Adam Scott ($8,200) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 52^nd // 34^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 52^nd // 34^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 97^th // 45th

• GIRs Gained– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 64^th // 36^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 51^st // 27^th

• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 43^rd/23^rd // 22^nd/15^th

•   SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 51^st // 23^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 38^th // 9^th // 10^th // 37^th // 54^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 38^th // 1^st // 7^th // 53^rd // 11^th // 2^nd // 10^th // 17^th

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 6

Course Fit Rank: 10^th

Notes: I liked Scott last week and a classic horrific putting round hurt his final leaderboard finish, but his course history here is pretty staggering with no MC, a win, and 3 other T10 finishes or better; a known bad putter, Scott’s best surface by far is Poa, and despite losing strokes Ball-Striking last week, he had a mostly solid all-around game and hopefully a T38 finish keeps his ownership down despite having a Top 3 course history in the field

2) Marc Leishman ($7,900) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 22^nd // 13^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 20^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 35^th // 18^th

• GIRs Gained– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 55^th // 31^st

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 46^th // 24^th

• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 22^nd/19^th // 13^th/13^th

•   SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 30^th // 14^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 28^th // 16^th // 36^th // 10^th // 19^th   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – 32^nd // 43^rd // 4^th // MC // MC // 5^th // MC // 59^th // 61^st // 17^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 22^nd

Notes: I’m interested to see where Leishman’s pOWN% is on Wednesday as I expect he’ll gain steam, but I’ll eat the chalk if so as he’s in great form with 10 straight made cuts, strokes gained T2G in 7 straight events, and has gained on both SG: OTT and SG: APP in his last 4 events; 5 T20s or better in his last 7 PGA starts, a lot of experience at Riviera, and if he can avoid the big numbers I think he can contend for a T10 or better finish at only 7900

3) Lanto Griffin ($7,200) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 23^rd // 14^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 10^th // 6^th

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 61^st // 32^nd

• GIRs Gained– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 63^rd // 35^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 7^th // 2^nd

• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 67^th/50^th // 31^st/31^st

•   SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 50^th // 22^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 16^th // 30^th // 3^rd // 40^th // 64^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 26^th // 37^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 31^st

Notes: Clearly too cheap despite the field and I expect some ownership will follow… ranks 10^th in the field in SG: APP, 7^th in BoB, 8^th in Opportunities Gained (approaches to 15 feet or less), and has made both cuts at the Genesis with a T26 last year/T37 the year before… the finishes aren’t amazing, but at only 7200 we mainly need a made cut for decent value and he’s in great form with 7 straight made cuts and 4 straight events of gaining T2G and on APP

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Maverick McNealy ($7,200) → pOWN%: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 19^th // 10^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 47^th // 31^st

• Good Drives Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 69^th (nice) // 36^th

• GIRs Gained– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 54^th // 30^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 14^th // 7^th

• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance– Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 112^th/83^rd // 46^th/43^rd

•   SG: Putting (Poa emphasis) – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

→ 46^th // 21^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // 30^th // 27^th // 19^th // 12^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 55^th    

Notes: Didn’t like him as a mega chalk 9000 player a few weeks ago but now price has been slashed and he’ll probably be half as owned, or less, than a few weeks ago; 7 straight made cuts, has gained strokes T2G and OTT in his last 4, gained on APP in 3 of his last 4, and is a California guy/strong Poa putter; McNealy has finished T40 or better in his last 7 and now at this cheap price point, a made cut + upside is much more reasonable than a chalky 9k player where we need a T20 or better and have no leverage

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Paul Casey → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context: We all know how chalk Casey normally goes… poorly; it sounds stupid to fade someone just based on him historically blowing up, but if Casey does get pushed up to near 20% owned or higher, I’m fine fading in GPPs; I think he’s a cash lock given his ridiculously cheap price, he has a T24/T12/T9/T25 in 4 of his last 5 worldwide starts and is 6/6 in made cuts at Riviera

Luke List → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: Course seems like it’d be a great course fit as it has similarities to Torrey where he just picked up his first win… List went back to vintage List last week, losing 6 stroke putting and has mixed history at Riv with a T15/T20 in 2 of 6 starts along with 2 MCs… ranks 6^th in my course comp model and I think he’s playable in cash if he’s going to be owned, but I’ll fade in GPPs if he’s chalk and hope (expect) a horrific putting performance

Thomas Pieters → pOWN%: 13%

Play/Fade/Context: I didn’t think people would be that interested in Pieters as he won’t pop in any model given he plays mostly on the Euro Tour but he could be 12-15% owned… has played here twice before (T68 in 2018/T2 in 2017); great course fit as he has massive distance off the tee, can get a hot putter (especially on Poa), and has 2 wins with no finishes worse than T25 in his last 5 worldwide starts… too cheap for his huge upside and a great GPP option

OTHERS I LIKE: Talor Gooch // Russell Henley // Joaquin Niemann // Sergio Garcia // Seamus Power // Thomas Pieters // Erik Van Rooyen

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (75 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Patton Kizzire ($6,800) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Such a strong GPP play week in and week out with how he racks up birdies; great ball-striker for only 6800, finished T10 last week, and has gained 3+ strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4 starts… hasn’t played here in several years and I prefer him on Bermuda, but he’ll be 5% or less in GPPs and he can give huge value if he avoids the big numbers; ranks 31^st in the field SG: T2G, 28^th SG: APP, 22^nd in GIRs Gained, and 28^th in BoB Gained

2) Sebastian Munoz ($6,700) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: I always prefer him on Bermuda, but he’s also been a historically good Poa putter as well and he was Top 5 last week in SG: Ball-Striking, yet lost nearly 4 strokes putting resulting in a T23 finish… has made 4 of his last 6 cuts with 2 T5s and ranks Top 40 in the field in SG: T2G and SG: APP along with ranking 2^nd in SG: Par 4s 450-500 and 15^th in BoB

3) James Hahn ($6,500) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Crushed my best team last week but maybe I shouldn’t have jumped on right after he was recovering from COVID… nevertheless, his ball striking has been strong, has won here before, and has finished T15 or better 3 of the 5 times following the win… he’s still a GPP only play and risky, but I like the track record and like that he ranks 31^st in the field in Good Drives Gained (Hahn has sneaky distance) and 38^th in GIRs Gained

4) Patrick Rodgers ($6,500) → pOWN%: 6%

Quick Hits: His current form and stats are kind of all over the place as his T2G ranks 65^th in the field and SG: APP ranks 81^st; however, he does rank 11^th in GIRs Gained, 29^th SG: Par 4s 450-500, and 19^th in Scrambling; at only 6500 we just want a made cut to hit solid value and Rodgers has made 5 straight cuts at Riviera with no finish worse than T30 and a T15/T12 in 2 of his last 3 starts; loves Poa/Cali courses

5) Aaron Rai ($6,400) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: No course history here but has a great short game, which is required to succeed at all on these tough greens/tough scrambling holes; it’s a small sample, but so far in measured PGA events he has been a strong Poa putter, has made 6 of his last 8 cuts (MDF at Pebble), and comes to a course that puts a huge emphasis on ball-striking and strong off the tee play, in which Rai has gained OTT in 6 straight measured events and gained Ball-Striking (SG: OTT + SG: APP) in 5 of his last 6

 

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Xander Schauffele

3) Cameron Smith

4) Bubba Watson

5) Marc Leishman

6) Paul Casey

7) Seamus Power

8) Luke List

9) Lanto Griffin

10) Patrick Rodgers

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% Course Comp Rank, and 10% Course History

1. Jon Rahm
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Justin Thomas
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Rory McIlroy
8. Luke List
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Tom Hoge
11. Viktor Hovland
12. Sungjae Im
13. Matt Fitzpatrick
14. Russell Henley
15. Seamus Power
16. Collin Morikawa
17. Bubba Watson
18. Adam Scott
19. Cameron Tringale
20. Marc Leishman