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Course: Colonial CC, Fort Worth, TX

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7200 yards
• Average Cut: +2
• Field: 120 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage)
  • Memorial Park (Houston Open)
  • Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship)
  • TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship)
  • Waialae CC (Sony Open)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, Harold Varner III, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (125-175 yards emphasis)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Accuracy)
• GIRs Gained
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Jordan Spieth ($10,400) → pOWN%: 23%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 3^rd
• SG: Approach → 3^rd
• SG: OTT (Fairways Gained emphasis) → 9^th
• GIRs Gained → 11^th
• BoB Gained → 7^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 28^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 34^th // 2^nd // 1^st // MC // 35^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – 2^nd // 10^th // 8^th // 32^nd // 2^nd // 1^st // 2^nd // 14^th // 7^th

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 4

Top 10s: 7

Top 20s: 8

Course Fit Rank: 31^st

Notes: He will be very chalk but his form is elite right now and when looking at the stats from last week, Spieth was one of the worst putters in the field while continuing his strong ball striking, gaining nearly 5 strokes on APP and 2.3 OTT while losing 3.2 putting… his course history is unprecedented with 7 T10s or better, 4 T5s or better, and a win in 9 total starts at Colonial and a cash game lock for me

2) Tony Finau ($9,100) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 10^th
• SG: Approach → 22^nd
• SG: OTT (Fairways Gained emphasis) → 3^rd
• GIRs Gained → 10^th
• BoB Gained → 63^rd
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 47^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 30^th // 41^st // 2^nd // 35^th // 29^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 20^th // 23^rd // 2^nd // 29^th // 34^th // 19^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 3

Course Fit Rank: 19^th  

Notes: Didn’t do much on the leaderboard last week but continued to gain strokes across the board, gaining 5.6 T2G and has now gained strokes T2G in 5 straight events, OTT in 6 straight, and gained on APP in 5 of his last 7… Finau has made 6 of his last 7 cuts and at Colonial has 3 straight finishes of T20/T23/T2

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Sungjae Im ($9,200) → pOWN%: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 21^st
• SG: Approach → 64^th
• SG: OTT (Fairways Gained emphasis) → 15^th
• GIRs Gained → 20^th
• BoB Gained → 41^st
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 31^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 14^th // 21^st // 8^th // 35^th // 55^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 9 – MC // 10^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 14^th  

Notes: I’m not totally sure Im actually had COVID when he had to WD last week as there may be different regulations for travel/in South Korea but his form has been strong with 6/7 made cuts including 3 finishes of T21 or better in his last 4; has only played Colonial 3 times with a T10 in 2020 and I love targeting him here as people will be scared off by last week’s WD

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Viktor Hovland → pOWN%: 23%

Play/Fade/Context: I love Hovland but MEGA chalk Hovland may be a fade in GPPs

Tommy Fleetwood → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context: Similar to Hovland, Fleetwood’s form has improved but I’m not ready to go all in if he’s going to be high owned

Collin Morikawa → pOWN%: 19%

Play/Fade/Context: LOVE the bounce back for Collin as his ball striking was great last week just couldn’t putt (which happens frequently)

Max Homa → pOWN%: 18%

Play/Fade/Context:

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (37 players):

Plays

1) Harold Varner III ($7,800) → pOWN%: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 9^th
• SG: Approach → 8^th
• SG: OTT (Fairways Gained emphasis) → 77^th
• GIRs Gained → 25^th
• BoB Gained → 7^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 53^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 48^th // 4^th // 3^rd // 23^rd // 18^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 32^nd // 19^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 10^th  

Notes: Looks great in any stat model so ownership could follow, but he’s made his last 5 cuts, gained T2G and on APP in all 5 of those events and similar to that of Doug Ghim (below), when he does have those spike putting weeks, he has T10 or better upside (gained 5.4 at RBC and finished T3; gained just 0.5 at the PLAYERS and came T6)

2) Tom Hoge ($7,600) → pOWN%: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 20^th
• SG: Approach → 10^th
• SG: OTT (Fairways Gained emphasis) → 60^th
• GIRs Gained → 54^th
• BoB Gained → 24^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 68^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 9^th // 17^th // MC // MC // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC // MC // 40^th // 42^nd // 17^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 77^th

Notes: Gained the 2^nd most strokes on APP at the PGA Champ (only behind Cam Smith) and has now gained on APP in 8 of his last 9 events and this course should help his OTT game more than last week as a shorter track with much more emphasis on accuracy over distance; Hoge ranks Top 30 or better in all stats I’m looking at this week (other than putting) and is still only 7600

3) Matthew NeSmith ($7,300) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 11^th
• SG: Approach → 17^th
• SG: OTT (Fairways Gained emphasis) → 27^th
• GIRs Gained → 9^th
• BoB Gained → 59^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 110^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 51^st // 31^st // 4^th // 12^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: MC // 49^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 85^th

Notes: Worth noting that the day after the PGA Champ, NeSmith played in a US Open qualifier in Dallas and torched both courses so his form remains strong! 11^th in the field T2G, 17^th APP, 9^th in GIRs Gained, 22^nd in Bogey Avoidance; NeSmith has gained strokes OTT in 9 straight events, gained 4+ strokes T2G in each of his last 3 events and gives us the volatility + upside we want in the low 7k range

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Cameron Tringale ($7,500) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 48^th
• SG: Approach → 27^th
• SG: OTT (Fairways Gained emphasis) → 86^th
• GIRs Gained → 35^th
• BoB Gained → 45^th
• SG: Putting (Bent) → 40^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 41^st // 33^rd // 12^th // 62^nd // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 32^nd // 72^nd // 62^nd // 43^rd // 63^rd // 54^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 104^th

Notes: Tringale is so hard to figure out week to week but he continues to exhibit solid ball striking as he’s gained strokes on APP in 7 straight events, gained T2G and Putting in his last 3 and HOPEFULLY should struggle less with the OTT game on a course that doesn’t require distance; his finishes at Colonial are nothing special but he has made his last 6 cuts here and his form over the last year/1.5 years is much better than his past

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Kevin Na → pOWN%: 16%

Play/Fade/Context: Na rates out well for me, and everyone else, and while his higher price may keep pOWN% down I’m not sure I want to play a chalky Kevin Na in GPPs (still like him in cash games)

Brian Harman → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: Rates out well for me and has very strong course history with 8 straight made cuts at Colonial that includes 3 T10s and 3 T25s so it will come down to ownership for me in tournaments

Sebastian Munoz → pOWN%: 14%

Play/Fade/Context: T2G game continues to be terrific as he’s gained strokes T2G in 8 straight events, he’s made 10 of his last 12 cuts, and as long as the putter isn’t ice cold, he’s a tremendous value

OTHERS I LIKE: Gary Woodland // Sebastian Munoz // K.H. Lee

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (96 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Kevin Streelman ($6,800) → pOWN%: 4%

Quick Hits: Has mostly been hindered by the ARG game as of late which should be much less important compared to last week at Southern Hills… Streelman ranks 9^th in the field in Fways Gained, 36^th SG: OTT, 24^th in my course comp model, and while he has mixed course history, he does have 2 T20s or better in his last 5 starts including a T20 last year; strong field but still feels underpriced at sub 7k

2) Doug Ghim ($6,700) → pOWN%: 6%

Quick Hits: Ball striking machine usually as he ranks 18^th in the field T2G, 30^th SG: APP, 33^rd SG: OTT, 23^rd Fways Gained, but it will come down to (as most of my guys I like always do) the putter… despite up and down finishes, Ghim has gained strokes on APP in 6 straight events, gained T2G in 6 straight, and when the putter pops he has T10 upside (last time he gained strokes putting he finished T6 at the PLAYERS)

3) J.T. Poston ($6,600) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Poston’s last 3 starts include a T9 at Wells Fargo and a T3 at RBC Heritage, with RBC being a strong comp course along with Poston being a former winner at Sedgefield (another comp); has gained OTT in 4 straight events and 11 of his last 12, has gained on APP in 3 of his last 4, and has gained strokes putting in his last 4 events as well… has a T10/T20 in 5 starts at Colonial

4) Austin Smotherman ($6,300) → pOWN%: 6%

Quick Hits: Pops in my stat model as he’s 38^th T2G, 23^rd SG: APP, 14^th SG: OTT, 22^nd in Fways Gained, and 36^th BoB Gained… at only 6300 we’re mainly looking for a made cut and Smotherman has made his last 4 cuts and 6 of his last 7 cuts with back to back T25s at the Byron Nelson and Wells Fargo

Cash Game Options

1) Jordan Spieth

2) Viktor Hovland

3) Tony Finau

4) Kevin Na

5) Chris Kirk

6) Harold Varner III

7) Sebastian Munoz

8) Tom Hoge

9) Maverick McNealy

10) Kevin Streelman

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% of my course comp model ranking, and 10% Tournament History

1. Jordan Spieth
2. Justin Thomas
3. Collin Morikawa
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Chris Kirk
6. Harold Varner III
7. Tommy Fleetwood
8. Will Zalatoris
9. Sungjae Im
10. Mito Pereira
11. Sam Burns
12. Tony Finau
13. Max Homa
14. Kevin Na
15. Sebastian Munoz
16. Viktor Hovland
17. Abraham Ancer
18. Davis Riley
19. Brian Harman
20. J.T. Poston