All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

Sign up for the BEST STATS DATABASE for DFS Golf at fantasynational.com/dfskarma

Course: Stadium Course (PGA West), La Quinta, CA

Fast Facts

• Par 72; ≈ 7100 yards (around TOUR average)
• Average Cut: -9 (54-hole cut)
• Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • GC of Houston (Houston Open)
  • TPC Kuala Lumpur (CIMB Classic)
  • TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open)
  • TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management)
  • TPC Sawgrass (PLAYERS Championship)
  • Trinity Forest GC (Byron Nelson 2018/2019)
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Abraham Ancer, Jason Day, Corey Conners, Charles Howell III, Sungjae Im, Justin Rose, Kevin Chappell, Gary Woodland, Patrick Reed, K.H. Lee, Patrick Cantlay, Emiliano Grillo, Scottie Scheffler

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• Birdie-or-Better Gained
• SG: Putting
• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (17 players):

Plays

1) Corey Conners ($9,400) → pOWN%: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

9^th // 6^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

16^th // 8^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

56^th // 11^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

28^th // 9^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

4^th // 2^nd

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

9^th/93^rd // 15^th/11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 11^th // 22^nd // 17^th // 40^th // 17^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // 50^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 5^th  

Notes: Always rates out well across just about any stat model as a premier ball striker, ranking 9^th in the field in SG: T2G, 4^th SG: OTT, 16^th BoB Gained, and ranks 5^th in my course comp model… despite a long layoff, so the results can be taken with a grain of salt, Conners has finished T22 or better in 4 of his last 5 starts and as a poor putter, is best on Bermuda greens (relative to the field)

2) Cameron Tringale ($8,900) → pOWN%: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

51^st // 14^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

13^th // 7^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

26^th // 6^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

72^nd // 14^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

89^th // 15^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

13^th/21^st // 8^th/4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 7^th // 2^nd // 59^th // 56^th // 11^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – 56^th // 43^rd // 51^st // MC // MC // 14^th // 30^th // 38^th // 37^th // 30^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 63^rd  

Notes: We haven’t seen Tringale since the Houston Open several weeks ago where he finished 7^th but he had a very strong year last season as he’s made 11 of his last 12 cuts and despite no huge finishes here, he has played it 10 years in a row and should therefore be used to the extremely slow play of amateurs and the general course layout

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Tony Finau ($10,200) → pOWN%: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

14^th // 9^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

25^th // 11^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

141^st // 17^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

12^th // 5^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

33^rd // 8^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

80^th/65^th // 15^th/12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 19^th // 7^th // MC // 8^th // 45^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 4^th // 14^th // MC // 59^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Course Fit Rank: 18^th

Notes: Anyone who’s read my content before knows I rarely play Finau as he’s usually overpriced and over owned; however, he seems to be coming in much lower than normal this week and he has finished T4/T14 here in his last 2 starts and coming off a season where he FINALLY got a much deserved win after nearly a 6 year gap; Finau has gained strokes on APP in his last 7 events, T2G in his last 4 events, and provides great leverage off what should be insanely popular Rahm/Cantlay/Scheffler

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Jon Rahm → pOWN%: 25%

Play/Fade/Context: I didn’t write up Rahm because what’s the point? He’s #1 in my model, as he should be in everyone’s this week, and with just about zero flaws in his game, he’s probably underpriced at $11,300 on DK and while I never “lock” anyone, I’ll look to play around 40-50% Rahm at least

Patrick Cantlay → pOWN%: 24%

Play/Fade/Context: Cantlay isn’t quite the caliber of Rahm, but he’s not far off and while I would probably fade Cantlay over Rahm if forced to choose, I think I will try to play both and equal the field on Cantlay if possible… I think Rahm/Cantlay starts are possible, but it will certainly lead to chalkier 6k options so be wary of that if stacking the 2 studs at the top

Abraham Ancer → pOWN%: 23%

Play/Fade/Context: Brutal MC by Ancer last week and while I don’t dislike him this week despite the MC, if he’s going to be 20% or more owned, I’m fine full fading… I like Henley/Tringale/Zalatoris in that similar range and Ancer’s T2G game and Scrambling has been very off lately…

Scottie Scheffler → pOWN%: 17%

Play/Fade/Context: I like Scottie as I assume most will but if he’s going to get steamed, I have no issue being underweight or fading… only 2 years of history where he’s gone MC and T3 and ranks 15^th in my course comp model

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (47 players):

Plays

1) Luke List ($8,000) → pOWN%: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

1^st // 1^st

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

3^rd // 1^st

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

151^st // 46^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

16^th // 8^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

2^nd // 2^nd

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

53^rd/29^th // 27^th/11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 10^th // 11^th // MC // 7^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 7 – 21^st // MC // MC // MC // 41^st // 6^th // 65^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 37^th  

Notes: We know the story here… if he gets super chalky, he makes for a decent fade, but the ball striking is near best in the field, he’s gained strokes T2G in 12 straight events and in 20 of his last 21… has lost strokes putting in 7 of his last 10 measured events and while it’s hard to foresee a spike week like Hideki had in Hawaii, but has had decent success at this tournament and CAN get hot and rack up birdies

2) Sebastian Munoz ($7,500) → pOWN%: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

49^th // 24^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

9^th // 3^rd

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

118^th // 35^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

63^rd // 24^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

75^th // 30^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

79^th/56^th // 36^th/20^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 3^rd // MC // MC // 4^th // 49^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 21^st // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 51^st   

Notes: I’m a sucker for Munoz, I get it, but no one ever plays him and he can get a red-hot putter and rack up a ton of birdies (or he can make a ton of bogeys and MC); strong Bermuda putter, has a T3 and a T4 in 2 of his last 3 starts on TOUR and never is owned much by the field

3) Kramer Hickok ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

26^th // 13^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

46^th // 15^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

79^th // 21^st

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

23^rd // 11^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

62^nd // 24^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

67^th/8^th // 33^rd/4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 20^th // MC // 4^th // 30^th // 57^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 21^st // MC // 40^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 53^rd

Notes: Played great last week, finished T21 at the AmEx last year, and has made 4 of his last 5 cuts with a T20/T4/T30 in that span… at only 7200 and minimal ownership we don’t need him to win or come Top 5 like the high-priced studs but rather make the cut with some upside; not a “key” stat I’m using this week, but Hickok hits a ton of fairways (ranks 13^th in the field), is a great scrambler (important to deal with the inconsistencies around the greens this week), and has a much more solid game than his DK price would indicate

 

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Denny McCarthy ($7,400) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

42^nd // 19^th

• Birdie-or-Better Gained – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

50^th // 17^th

• SG: Putting – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

19^th // 7^th

• SG: Approach – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

73^rd // 26^th

• SG: OTT – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

92^nd // 34^th

• Bogey Avoidance/Scrambling – Rank in full field // Rank in pricing tier

8^th/4^th // 3^rd/2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 48^th // 10^th // 11^th // MC // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 48^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 48^th  

Notes: If nothing else, McCarthy is a great game theory play this week as he barely made the cut at Sony, as chalk, then had a terrible week and limped to a T48 finish; still an elite putter, he’s gained strokes T2G in his last 5 measured events, has made his last 5 cuts with 3 T15 finishes or better, and his poor course history will keep his ownership minimal

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Michael Thompson → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: I get the Michael Thompson play as he has a T9 and a T5 in 2 of his last 3 starts here but at my current 15% pOWN, that’s an auto fade for me as the “cheap value” chalk ala Dahmen last week… Thompson is solid, but he ranks 133^rd in the field (out of 156) in SG: OTT, is middle of the road in T2G, SG: APP, and BoB Gained, and I prefer pivots in that range like Munoz/McCarthy/others at what could be 1/2 or 1/3 the ownership

Hayden Buckley → pOWN%: 15%

Play/Fade/Context: Buckley is going to rate out for many, myself included, due to limited stats but with the wonkiness of this tournament, I’m fine pivoting to another young up-and-comer like Taylor Moore at $100 more as Buckley is a great ball striker but his short game could be his downfall this week

Adam Svensson → pOWN%: 11%

Play/Fade/Context: I’m scratching my head at his popularity as yes, he had a strong week last week, but he’s historically a below average putter, he’d lost strokes on APP and OTT in 5 of his last 6 measured events and the T7 last week was his first on TOUR after a MC in 4 of his previous 7 starts… I think Svensson is good but as value chalk after 1 good start seems like a definite fade for me

Adam Hadwin → pOWN%: 11%

Play/Fade/Context: I get the love for Hadwin given his course history, but his last 3 starts he has finished T46/T56/T51, all in very weak fields, and while he started to improve last year with some sporadic high finishes, I’m not sure he warrants double-digit ownership; Hadwin ranks 76^th in the field in SG: T2G, 69^th (nice) in SG: APP, 126^th in SG: OTT and will have to, per usual, ride an insanely hot putter to keep up and make enough birdies due to poor ball striking

OTHERS I LIKE: Adam Long // Troy Merritt // Taylor Moore // Andrew Putnam

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (91 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Davis Riley ($6,800) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: Only real concern in his game is Scrambling/Around the Green where he’s lost strokes in 6 of his last 7 events but is strong T2G, ranks 27^th in the field in SG: Ball-Striking (combo of SG: OTT + SG: APP), ranks 14^th in the field (3^rd in the sub 7k range) in SG: OTT, and 8^th in the field in BoB Gained (1^st ranked in his pricing tier)

2) Chad Ramey ($6,800) → pOWN%: 3%

Quick Hits: Burned a lot of people last week, including me, but will now be largely unowned because of a single MC… ranks 18^th in the field in SG: APP (4^th best in the sub 7k range), 31^st in BoB, and last week was his first time since starting his PGA TOUR career (7 starts) that he’s lost strokes on APP so I think a bounce back on an easy course is worth betting on at sub 5% pOWN

3) Hank Lebioda ($6,700) → pOWN%: 2%

Quick Hits: Lebioda was rolling in the middle of last year but was derailed when he had to WD to attend to a family matter and wasn’t able to get back on track… after missing his last 6 cuts in a row to end the season, his results are still not great (2 MC and a T15 in his last 3), but he’s gained strokes on APP in 3 straight and he’s made the cut in his last 2 starts at the AmEx

4) Tyler McCumber ($6,600) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Pretty volatile player, but at only 6600 we can’t have ALL the good stats… he’s gained strokes on APP in his last 3 measured events, is coming off a 4^th place finish at the RSM Classic, has made both cuts here the last 2 years, and rates out strong (30^th in the field) in my course comp rankings

 

Cash Game Options

1) Jon Rahm

2) Patrick Cantlay

3) Corey Conners

4) Russell Henley

5) Cameron Tringale

6) Jhonattan Vegas

7) Luke List

8) Taylor Moore

9) Hayden Buckley

10) Andrew Putnam

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 5% Course Comp Rank, and 10% Course History

1. Jon Rahm
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Talor Gooch
5. Sungjae Im
6. Seamus Power
7. Russell Henley
8. Luke List
9. Tony Finau
10. Matthew Wolff
11. Cameron Tringale
12. Jhonattan Vegas
13. Corey Conners
14. Denny McCarthy
15. Charles Howell III
16. Carlos Ortiz
17. Kramer Hickok
18. Tom Hoge
19. Justin Rose
20. Abraham Ancer